UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

{{ He's right, but hasn't seemed to have effected the polls any.
Tonight was the final leaders debate between Boris and Corbyn. Basically all Boris, as the front-runner, had to do was play it safe and not make an arse of anything, which is exactly what he did. Corbyn though needed to use this opportunity to get some knock out blows on Boris and use this last ditch chance to finally get those polls moving in Labours favour. Sadly he failed to do so, he didn't screw up abysmally like he did in the Andrew Neil interview but he never really landed any blows on Boris either, its hard to imagine anyone's views were changed by watching this so much as existing views consolidated.
As it stands with election day on Thursday the Tories remain the same 10 points ahead of Labour they have been since the beginning.
With effectively only 3 working days till election day its hard to see what will come to Labours (and the country's) rescue at this late hour. }}

Last time the Tories held an election was because May thought she would defo win by a landslide, she was wrong, the polls were wrong, they could be wrong now. I think these polls underestimate the young vote.

{{ Problem with the young vote if history is any guide is in genrall they sign up to vote in numbers when the hype and social media encourage it, but less than half of those actually go and vote come the day, but we shall see. }}

I will be particularly interested in what happens in Uxbridge, Johnson's seat. I think the students from Brunel University are going to try to vote him out, in which case its champers all round.



another seat to look out for is IDS's seat of Chingford and Raab's in Esher. Not to mention Hastings Amber Rudd's old seat is now held by a Tory harridan called Sally Ann Hart who thinks autistic people should be paid less because, "they don't understand money" FFS!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-election

handy voting guide

I think the students from Brunel University are going to try to vote him out, in which case its champers all round.- Figg

{{Sadly even if it happens whilst hugely embarrassing it doesnt get rid of him- there is precedent for ministers remaining in position even after losing their seats. All Boris need do is swap seats with another Tory for a super safe Tory seat and he's fine at next election (which would probably be a by-election).
I'd still be funny as hell though. }}

especially as most students in Brunel are BAME, immigrants and foreign students.

thought I had seen it all, then I watched Johnson take the phone from a reporter and put it in his pocket.

I sort of have to defend Boris here. A reporter is trying to get a "gotcha" emotional reaction out of him; as a functionary he has to look at the big picture and he did respond to how his government is dealing with NHS (whether you agree with his response is something else). I could see myself when being handed a phone and asked to respond in what is obviously a trap - I'd take it and pocket it while responding to what I saw as the bigger picture. At some point I'm sure he would have handed it back. He didn't "grab" it, he quietly removed it as a line of attack.

Jeremy Corbyn would have looked at the picture, been honest enough to apologise and would have dealt with it without pocketing the phone just because the message was 'too difficult'. That's Johnson's f-ing job, he is responsible for this kid lying on the floor, his government did it. Instead he ran away, literally and metaphorically. He is a moral coward.

{{ He did apoligise, and the Health Sec went to the hospital and to the family to apoligise in person. Though what state is the NHS in England in?! And I'd blame Cameorn and May more for the situation, Boris has only been PM a short while, the policies in England which has led to this pathetic state of affairs was their doing far more than Boris's. }}}

It's a big worry any time you bring in a socialized component.  It's part of the argument here against government run health care. I think the best way to address this would be to say that government will provide the basic, essential services (enough to get you to see web pages and fill out forms but not watch video; or get medical services but without a dedicated doctor) while companies provide the full services that people are already paying for and probably are not willing to give up just to get free service.

Pettytyrant101 wrote:

That's the very least of our worries, and pales into insignificance to what the Tories will unleash on Britain.




"""Among other things they will: preside over a protracted post-Brexit recession; a collapse in sterling; starve local services and the welfare state of funding when the comprehensive spending review comes round; fail to conclude a trade deal with the EU in time; fail to negotiate an advantageous trade deal with anyone else including (especially) Trump’s protectionist America by 2024; dismantle the constitutional checks and balances supplied by the Commons and the courts, shut down Channel 4; neuter the BBC; cut taxes for the rich; pack the House of Lords with more Tories and appoint placemen and placewomen to top jobs in the civil service, diplomatic corps, Bank of England and quangos; privatise anything not specifically ruled out by their manifesto.

It is not, then, only the election campaign that is quite stunningly predictable and an easy win for the Tories; but the course of the next five years of the Johnson administration as well. It feels, for those of us who lived through it, very much like the 1980s – a divided centre-left opposition facing a determined Tory PM, who uses their powers as if an elected dictator. You have been warned.""

source, Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/general-election-boris-johnson-unpredictable-conservatives-majority-opposition-tactical-voting-a9238846.html

{{ My view Figg is that Corbyn and Boris are as bad for the  country as each other- both will wreck the economy just in different ways, both will screw over public services, Corbyn by bankrupting the economy and not being able to fund them (as well as being unable to fund or pay for all the nationalised services, and the service will be shit, I remember nationalised BT when you had to wait weeks for an engineer and pay extra to get an extension put in, when they werent on strike that is) Boris will wreck public services by choice, the Tory way has always been underfund and cut services, then use that as the excuse saying look how bad things are needs private sector.
There is no good choice here.
I just hope to God Scotland gets the hell out of this before either can totally wreck the country and bleed us dry. And th emeantime I hope, as they have in the past, the SNP government can shield Scotland from the worst of it. }}

{{ Leak from Labour Shadow Health minister Ashworth talking about Corbyn and the prospect of Labour government. After it came out he insisted it was 'banter' and 'joshing' but it neither sounds like banter or joshing, and neither of those is the same as saying he didnt believe it or it wasnt true.


Friend:  “If he (Corbyn) got in would he be as bad as I suspect?”

Ashworth: “I don’t know, on the security stuff; I worked in No.10, I think the machine will pretty quickly move to safeguard security (I mean the civil service machine). But it’s not going to happen! I can’t see it happening!
I’ve been going round these national places, it’s dire for Labour… it’s dire… it’s awful for them, and it’s the combination of Corbyn and Brexit….outside of the city seats… it’s abysmal out there… they can’t stand Corbyn and they think Labour’s blocked Brexit. I think middle-class graduates – remainy people – Labour’s doing well among… but not in big enough numbers to deny the Tories a majority.
I just can’t see it happening. It wouldn’t surprise me – for sake of argument – we held Canterbury because of sort of middle-class, Guardian-reading people, but then the Tories take Bolsover off of Labour it wouldn’t surprise me. The electoral map has being going topsy-turvey because of Brexit and Corbyn."

Friend: “Is there any reassurance you can give me as to what sensible Labour MPs could do to stop Corbyn?”

Ashworth: “No because we fucked it up; we fucked it up in 2016 when we went too early. People like me were internally saying ‘this isn’t the right moment’ but I got kind of ignored. But I don’t think we’re going to get there; In Mansfield, in Ashfield, it’s dire for the Labour Party up there, these traditional working areas."

Friend: “how long would it take Labour to get its act back together and get rid of Corbyn?”

Ashworth: “That’s the thing that’s on our minds… I think things can change quickly; I think things change more quickly anyway now.”


Even Corbyn's own ministers think he is dangerous and hopeless. Who wants a government who from the off the Cabinet has no loyalty or faith or belief in their own PM? }}

{{ latest from the BBC poll tracker (it amalgimates the results from all the most up to date polls).





'Sir John Curtice* has pointed out, if the result on Thursday is in line with these numbers then the Conservatives are probably on course for a decent majority in the House of Commons.'

*Sir John Kevin Curtice FRSA FRSE FBA is a political scientist who is currently Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow at NatCen Social Research. He is particularly interested in electoral behaviour and researching political and social attitudes. (The Beeb use him as their polls specialist).
}}

{{ After a dull election campaign things are sparkinginto life, been a busy day! }}

'Mr Ashworth told the BBC: "Of course it makes me look like a right plonker, but it's not what I mean when I'm winding up a friend, trying to sort of, pull his leg a bit."
He said he was "having a bit of banter" with his friend "because he was saying 'oh, the Tories are going to lose' and I was, like saying, 'no you're going to be fine', joshing as old friends do.
When asked if he believed, as the recording suggested, that Mr Corbyn was a threat to the UK's national security, Mr Ashworth replied: "Of course I don't."
Speaking to BBC Politics Live, he said: "I look like an idiot as a result of doing it... I apologise to Labour Party members."- BBC

we all know that Corbyn is wildly unpopular, we knew that years ago, I don't think he is a good leader, but at least he isn't a liar, a cheat or a coward, and that is the bottom line for me. Who can you trust, I would trust what Corbyn says, I wouldn't trust Johnson as far as I could throw him. its as simple as that.
Unfortunately its a tragedy that we have Corbyn at this time, he is the wrong man, and once he loses he will be gone. But it will be too late for all those things listed in the article above.

Its also symbolic that Ashford's 'friend' is a Tory who has stabbed him in the back.

{{ This is the worst car crash interview Ive ever seen a major politician in! Ashworth on Politics live trying to defend himself, you can actually see him falling apart as she reads stuff out and seeing his career end with every word, and his body language utterly betrays him. Its actually hard to watch. }}

um-yeah, he was silly to trust his 'friend' but I think Johnson being unable to look at a suffering 4 year old kid on the floor kind of trumps it for career ending moments, only Johnson's career wont end will it, that's for mere mortals.

he was silly to trust his 'friend' - Figg

{{ A very shitty friend as it turns out though has to be said, and they were old friends its an utter scummy betrayal, even by current political standards. Even for a Tory.
The kid thing wont end Boris because he simply hasnt been PM long enough to carry the can, he can, and has been saying austerity was wrong, how it was done was wrong and Cameron and May went too far (hoping of course the majorty of voters will be unaware of his voting record on these matters as an MP when he supported them all). But as he wasnt PM most of that time he is getting away with that.

Latest poll from YouGov out tonight- }}

A poll produced by YouGov released on Tuesday evening suggests the Conservatives are on course for a small majority of around 28.

Their poll puts the Conservatives on 43%, which their model translates into 339 seats; Labour on 34%, with 231 seats; the Liberal Democrats on 12%, with 15 seats; the Greens with 3% and one seat and the Brexit Party on 3%, with no seats. The SNP are projected to have 41 seats, an increase of six on 2017, and Plaid Cymru are unchanged with four seats.

{{ One thing you cant take away from Boris- he is a clever bastard.  
The last Tory election broadcast. Its genius, makes Boris seem harmelss,likeable, affable and he uses all the skills he learned in his time away from politics and in front of tv cameras on stuff like Have I got News for You. Its also very suited for a social media age, gifable, screenshotable easy to get fun images from which because of the cards will have a Tory message on them.
Hate him, but hard at times as a political watcher not to admire his political manouveres and the sheer balsy upfront gusto with which he performs them. }}

{{ Found this interesting. Along with refusing to do the Andrew Neil interview Boris has also backed out the last chance to do the radio 2 Vine show, also done by all other party leaders bar him.
But he's not the only one. Corbyn has backed out and refused to do radio 5's Q&A which all other leaders, Boris included, have done.

Why interesting? Well Boris is refusing to do sit down interviews with journalists one on one, but what he has been doing is anything where the questions are from the public and he has spent most of the campaign out in the country meeting the public. Something normally politicians dont like as its unpredictable. But Boris is good with dealing with the public, he can do affable and concillatory even whilst under verbal attack. its way more in his wheel house than tough questioning by a professional.

Corbyn on the otherhand knows he's hated in much of the traditional Labour heartlands never mind elsewhere- for him being hammered by a pro journalist is preferable to talking with the public where the risk of him being pulled apart by disgruntled leave labour voters (of which there are a lot) is too great.

So interesting what type of exposure these two prefer to get.

Boris wont do the Neil interview and Corbyn wont do Q&A's with the public. }}