UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

{{Four ministers have resigned and on the mass grilling and doing over May just endured in the Commons for the last 3 hours is anything to go by she has no chance of getting this passed in the House.

And Mogg has put his letter in towards the 48 total- which will be a signal to hos followers to do like wise. I dont think May will survive this if it gets to 48 letters.}}

{{Mogg just gave a press conference, essentially it was a signal to the Brexiteer group to send in their letters, he said he thought it likely the 48 number would be achieved and that the normal time period of a leadership contest- about 2 months minimum by party procedures, could be done in as little as a few weeks.

As things stand right now May has lost 2 more Cabinet Ministers and several junior cabinet ministers, lost the support of the DUP which she needed for a majority in the House, Labour oppose it, the SNP and Welsh Nationalists oppose it, the Lib Dems oppose it, the Greens oppose it and a sizeable chunk of her own party not only oppose it but are actively out to remove her before she can even try.

But there is no way this is getting passed the House even if she does survive long enough to do it- she just doesn't have anything like the support needed. }}

But who would take control if she's ousted? It seems like everyone's against her so no clear polarity.

{{{ Well this is being organised by the Brexiteers- when Mogg was asked for who would replace her he gave the stock 'the conservative party is full of talented individuals' speal, but when pressed for names gave, Boris, David Davis, Dominic Raab, Penny Maurdont and Esther McVey- all hard Brexit proponents- ie we just leave, no deal and go to WTO rules and start making our own deals and give the EU no money as part of a 'divorce bill'.

Mogg naturally, ruled himself out, which means he is standing.  }}

{{Handy flowchart from the BBC on what happens next-



Doesn't account for the fact May's own party might stab in her in the back first of course }}

My local MP is amongst those who has resigned...can't say I'm sad to see her go...

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/17225866.suella-braverman-tory-mp-for-fareham-resigns-her-government-post-over-proposed-northern-ireland-backstop/

{{{{ Press reports that the magic 48 number has been reached!


'NEW Brexiteer sources: the threshold of 48 letters of no confidence in Theresa May will be passed today. They are expecting a no confidence vote in the PM on Tuesday.'- Tweet from Telegraph

And Brexit cheerleader Michael Gove, the weasel man, is staying put in Cabinet and not resigning, slippery as an eel that one.
Or as one Senior Brexit supporting Tory tweeted-

“Michael’s wrestling bouts with his conscience constitute the longest winning streak in British sporting history.”  }}

{{Sky News reporting that more than 48 letters have been received by the Tory Party Chairman making a leadership contest inevitable now.

The question now therefore is who will the hard Brexit mob put up to challenge May- Boris? Mogg? Thing is whilst the hard Brexit mob are vocal and sizeable in the Tory party, its questionable if they have a majority- its possible May will survive a leadership contest and if so that means there won't be another one for some time if she does.
I dont think Boris will risk his shot at PM yet when there is a riskof failure - but ambition might get the better of him yet- interesting times indeed! }}

{{update- the BBC are reporting that the official number of letters received is only 20 so far- so as of now no idea which is true }}

so lets look at what we know so far.

48 letter may have been reached therefore vote of no confidence
if say she wins she is safe for a year
if she loses who will take her place
In polls nobody has as much support as May does at the moment
if she survives it doesn't really matter much because Parliament will vote the deal down
if parliament votes it down she is finished any way
she might stagger on for a bit until Labour demand a General Election but they wont get one
a no-deal will be voted down by Parliament in which case complete stalemate
Hopefully Keir Starmer will demand a Peoples Vote and Corbyn will get off his fence
best scenario we remain and general election with labour winning

Corbyn has actually mentioned a Peoples Vote at the CBI conference. That's a big deal.

{{The situation is muddy Figg with Labour- or what would happen in a general election if it comes to that- which it might.
As it stands Labour are sworn to carry out the referendum result same as the Tories- and they haven't put a credible plan to do so either. But it is the oficial party policy- to honour the referendum result.
And if it came to a general election then the two main parties, Labour and Tory would still both be standing on the basis of leaving. here is no credible remain choice to vote for.

Labour might shift position to backing a 2nd referendum, but its not their current position. And frankly Corbyn has been all the over shop since this all began- he was never an EU fan before he became leader, he barely showed up during the referendum debate and wasnt very persuasive when he did- a general fault of his he rarely campaigns or speaks to those outside London- and it was always going to vote remain so he was absent where he was actually needed, in the north of england and in traditional labour working class communities.

Labour has a long standing problem since Blair between appealing to its traditional voters and trying to hold onto Blairs new middle class labour voters, you can see this in it defence policy- its officially for renewal of Trident and the maintaining of the UK nuclear defence because that appeals to those middle class voters, but its leader, its grass roots and the entire Scottish branch of the party is utterly opposed to the UK nuclear fleet. And its the middle class pleasing policy that wins out.

On the EU its even worse, they want to say they are listening to those working class voters who voted leave, but they also want to reassure those middle class voters that they will get a better deal, that they will stay in the common market ect, that there wont be as much disruption. And again its the policy aimed at the middle classes which is currently holding out. There seems to me no effort from Corbyn to appeal, or change the minds of, or address the concerns of the working class voters who voted leave- labour simply doesn't know how to address them on this issue. }}

{{ A perfect example of everything wrong with Corbyn as Labour leader.

Right now the DUP are pissed with May. May relies on 10 DUP MP's to maintain her majority and cut a deal with them to do so.

But they dont like her Brexit deal and say it risks the Union.

Now in these circumstances it was clear the DUP were likely to take the first opportunity to show May they are serious, by not supporting the tories in some Commons votes.

Enter last nights vote, put forward by Corbyn himself, to force the government to publish the reports on the impact of treasury cuts on poverty levels. Its a big deal, as we all know the Tories are fudging and hiding the truth on that one, a the recent UN assessment proved.

So what happened- well the DUP predictably in my view abstained and then voted with Labour on that amendment. So good result! Tories forced to reveal the true findings- but no.

Labour still lost the vote by 5 votes. How did they manage that?-

'Labour... had not been expecting the DUP to vote with them and did not have enough of their own MPs on hand to win the knife-edge contest, losing it by five.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who had put forward the amendment himself, was among the absentees, having been given permission by his party's whips not to vote.'- BBC News

This is bread and butter labour territory here, defending the poor and forcing the Tories town up to increasing hardships o the poorest in society- this should be natural Labour ground, that should have been a whipped vote, Corbyn should have been present for his own vote leading them, and it should have been predictable to any politician that the DUP would at least abstain to send a message to May under these circumstances, and as Labour had SNP, Lib-Dem and Green baking even without the DUP voting with them, just them abstaining would have been enough to ensure the victory. Its hopeless leadership. }}

{{As Labour are proving so hopeless looks like Sturgeon is manoeuvring the SNP's Westminster party to take charge and try to organise things! }}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{As Labour are proving so hopeless looks like Sturgeon is manoeuvring the SNP's Westminster party to take charge and try to organise things! }}

Interesting move! Could you recommend a good text article? (I still can't watch videos )

Isnt there a Scottish legal battle at the moment to force the government to state whether article 50 can be withdrawn?
If so what was the government afraid of?
The Labour party has shown itself as weak and pretty toothless, any self respecting Socialist Opposition party should be savaging the crappy and undemocratic government but they are too wimpy to do any damage. They are not taking advantage of the weakness of the Tories and are letting them get away with murder, literally in the case of the DWP. The Labour party seem to be full of lightweights.
Corbyn is useless, somebody should be shouting in his lughole GET OFF THAT FUQING FENCE BEFORE ITS TOO LATE!!!
They might be respecting 'the will of the people' but that doesn't mean they have to respect a terrible deal. and by will of the people that's 17 million in a population of 67 million so hardly a majority.

{{Dave couldn't find a transcript of the interview but here's the relevant bits - }}

"Its important now we don't just say what we don't like, but what the alternatives are....we are not there yet, today was very much about initial exploratory talks between myself and Jeremy Corbyn for example...the next step is to look at what we think the positive steps are and where we can coalesce a majority around one of those... I hope so (that opposition parties will come together on this) Ican't sit here and guarantee that will happen, there is a lot of work needs to be done, but that's the whole purpose of my visit today to try to see if we can start to broker a situation where that happens. And I hope we might see that emerge over the next few weeks....I wouldn't go as far as to say Jeremy Corbyn is in that position right now... we talked about areas where we could coalesce around...if you look back to the last two general elections Ive been pretty open to say the SNP would be willing in principle to be part of a progressive coalition that keeps the Tories out of govenrment, that continues to be my position, its always been Labour who said they were not willing to work with the SNP."

{{Quick update for those interested on where we are- we are in a legal mess- or at least May is!

Basically it's all about the backstop still- the part of the agreement which says if there ins't a proper agreement over Ireland then al of the UK will stay aligned with EU market regulations so there doesn't have to be a border in Ireland.

Today the government were forced by a previous vote in the Commons to give the legal advice it had received over Brexit 'in full', but instead they actually gave an 'overview' of the legal advice rather than publishing the actual legal advice.
Now there is precedent for not publishing, its not normal for government to disclose its legal advice, there was a similar tussle over the legal advice Blair got on the legality of the war in Iraq for example. But there a lot of voices on all sides saying in this case MP's have to know before they can vote on the deal. And that's how a vote got passed in the Commons to force the government to reveal the legal advice.

And the real reason behind this is that Westminster is swirling with rumours that the legal advice says there is no legal way for the UK to end the backstop on its own, the EU has to agree to end it, effectively keeping the UK in the single market for as long as the EU wants.

Today in regards to this here's what the 'overview' of the legal advice said-

'The UK would be "indefinitely committed" to EU customs rules if Brexit trade talks broke down, the chief law officer has said.
But Geoffrey Cox said it would not be in either side's political interests to allow that to happen.
The attorney general said it was a "calculated risk" and "I do not believe we will be trapped in it permanently".- BBC News

This obviously has not satisfied anyone, and as the government were instructed by a vote in Parliament to give the full legal advice a bunch of MP's from all parties put in a complaint of contempt of parliament to the Speaker of the House, John Bercow, on the basis this was not the full legal advice they had been ordered to reveal.

And tonight in breaking news the Speaker has agreed.

'The UK government may have broken Parliamentary rules by not publishing Brexit legal advice, the Commons Speaker has said.
John Bercow said "there is an arguable case" that a contempt of Parliament has been committed.
It means MPs will debate and vote on Tuesday on whether or not to refer the case to the Standards Committee.'

So it looks so far with 8 days till the vote that May is not only failing to secure enough votes to get it through, but is now in some legal difficulty- as if the legal advice is forced to be published and it comes out strongly against the backstop on the basis we have no legal means of withdrawing for it- I think that's the end of her Brexit plan as far as many in her own party are concerned. It'll be the nail in the coffin. Interesting days ahead! }}

excellent day in politics, the Tories days are numbered.

1. Guilty of contempt of parliament
2. We can withdraw Article 50 any time we like before march 29th
3. Dominic Grieve Ammendment d. Revenge served cold.

Lets hope its the end of them.

{{Yup been some first day of debate for May- the government lost all three votes they had today.
This is a total mess now. May's plan is clearly unworkable as there is not a majority to pass it, she has ruled out anohter referendum, and the last of the three votes today effectively gives Parliament a veto over a no deal exit, meaning that's very unlikely to happen either.
So we cant have a second vote, we cant have a no deal exit resorting to WTO rules, and May's plan is looking 99.9% likely at this point to be voted down.
Given that I am not entirely sure now what will happen once the vote comes and inevitably fails- May is going to be in a tricky position regards staying on if she loses the vote, there is no plan B, we can't just crash out and we can't vote again.
We could have an early general election, but I dont honestly see that resolving anything and would very much be a case of rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic! }}

{{So the legal advice has been published, and does indeed appear to say what was feared by Brexiteers and Remainers alike- that if the backstop comes into effect there is no legal way out of it.

Here's the pertinent points from the advice given to the PM-

'Geoffrey Cox said the proposed backstop arrangement with the EU to prevent a hard Irish border could "endure indefinitely".
The UK, he said, would not be able to "lawfully exit" the arrangement without a subsequent political agreement and this could lead to "stalemate".....Mr Cox said signing up to the backstop was a "political decision".
"Despite statements that it is not intended to be permanent…in international law the protocol would endure indefinitely until a superseding agreement took its place," he wrote.
"In the absence of a right of termination, there is a legal risk that the UK might become subject to protracted and repeated rounds of negotiations."
"This risk must be weighed against the political and economic imperative of both sides to reach an agreement that constitutes a politically stable and permanent basis for their future relationship."

For those (like Blue- wherever he is- who might find the full legal advice interesting you can read the 6 page letter here-  https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/761852/05_December-_EU_Exit_Attorney_General_s_legal_advice_to_Cabinet_on_the_Withdrawal_Agreement_and_the_Protocol_on_Ireland-Northern_Ireland.pdf   }}}

Just want to say thanks for all your updates in this thread, Petty. I've been following this news a little bit on my own but you gather lots of info here, like the direct link to the PDF, that I wouldn't otherwise have seen as quickly.

{{ Happy to oblige Eldy

Latest movement is responses to the publishing of the legal advice- most important so far has come from the head of the DUP in Westminster, Nigel Dodds. Bear in mind May cut an expensive deal with the DUP to get them onboard as she needs their handful of votes to have a Parliamentary majority, even with theme fully on board for the Brexit vote she was going to struggle to get enough in her own party to vote it over the line- without the DUP there is next to no chance of it passing.

So what did the DUP have to say? That Mays deal would be 'devastating' and the Westminster head of party tweeted-

'For all the Prime Minister’s promises and pledges the legal advice is crystal clear.
In her words, no British Prime Minister could ever accept such a situation...'

Something is going to have to give before the vote or its DOA. }}