UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

Actually I think that advert has done Johnson no particular favours, unless people really are as thick as mince as they are portrayed by Johnson's own father. its not a 'funny' advert, its a cringeworthy and saccharine pile of crap, the woman looks like the unpleasant Brexiteer, Cruella Rees Mogg, (with a Black husband, as if), Cruella looks like there is something stinking under her nose, maybe its all the bullshit.

{{ Its designed to work on people the same way advertising does- which are also often saccharine cringeworthy piles of crap (xmas adverts in particular do this and this is done in the same vein which is clever in itself given a xmas election is hugely unusual in the UK). And like advertising it snot about appealing to anyone intillect. In fact like most adverts they especially try not to make you think about it.

And just like an advert it is selling something. The biggest threat against Boris is do people trust him? This is entirely built around making Boris seem harmless and trustworthy. Smartly the only dialgue hehas in it is straightforward simple and in essence says 'trust me, I will get the job done'.

As a side note its also targeted almost exclusively at the English. The film it references is very english, Love Actually with the epitomy of englishness Hugh Grant playing a popular PM whose big crowd pleasing moment in the film comes from standing up to a US President and basically tell him to bugger off, which again is clever- given the Labour spin Boris would sell out the NHS to a US President. The 'humour moment' where Boris says 'otherwise I'll look like this' and shows the picture of the shaggy dog, it is an old english sheepdog- iconic, intrinstically english and known for its loyalty, trustworthiness and doing its job.
I dont think it will do him any harm at all. It was clever stunts like this got him, a Tory, into Mayor of London, a heavily left-leaning, hugely ethnically diverse usually labour voting city. }}

I thought it was brilliant. We've got none of that inventiveness in politics over hear. None. Boring as white matte paint. No exceptions.

Actually its not 'brilliant' because he stole the idea from a Labour candidate.

{{ No he stole it from Love Actually which stole it from Bob Dylan. The Labour guy also is stealing from Dylan and Love Actually. }}

It was a Labour woman, not a guy, and she was the first to use it in a party political way. So stick that in your haggis and smoke it.

I've never seen Love Actually (the chick flickish title weighs heavily here) but looking it up I see that Boris did the more direct cribbing from it. Whether this is more or less clever than the more divergent Labor version is debatable. Definitely less inventive.

As for the film itself, amazing cast. I may have to rent it and get all toasty with a bottle of booze to watch it.

It was a Labour woman, not a guy- Figg

{{ I plead the Bangkok Exception - it was buckie goggles! }}

halfwise wrote:I've never seen Love Actually (the chick flickish title weighs heavily here) but looking it up I see that Boris did the more direct cribbing from it.  Whether this is more or less clever than the more divergent Labor version is debatable.  Definitely less inventive.

As for the film itself, amazing cast.  I may have to rent it and get all toasty with a bottle of booze to watch it.

Do watch it if only for the continuous and unrelenting schmaltz. A particular 'favourite' part is watching Hugh Grant as British PM standing up to his American counterpart. At that point I did so much cringing that I folded myself into a flat-pack Figg and slid under the sofa. Its a smorgasbord of cheese, a cornucopia of crap, but I like it.

Pettytyrant101 wrote:It was a Labour woman, not a guy- Figg

{{  I plead the Bangkok Exception - it was buckie goggles!   }}

I will let you off this time.

Given the current president I'd be all for the British PM standing up to him.  I'd wholeheartedly support Boris if he'd call T a toadstool to his face.  I was kinda rooting for the Queen to tell him off but she didn't deliver.

Mrs Figg wrote:

halfwise wrote:I've never seen Love Actually (the chick flickish title weighs heavily here) but looking it up I see that Boris did the more direct cribbing from it.  Whether this is more or less clever than the more divergent Labor version is debatable.  Definitely less inventive.

As for the film itself, amazing cast.  I may have to rent it and get all toasty with a bottle of booze to watch it.

Do watch it if only for the continuous and unrelenting schmaltz. A particular 'favourite' part is watching Hugh Grant as British PM standing up to his American counterpart. At that point I did so much cringing that I folded myself into a flat-pack Figg and slid under the sofa. Its a smorgasbord of cheese, a cornucopia of crap, but I like it.

I'd wholeheartedly support Boris if he'd call T a toadstool to his face. - Halfwise

{{He's has said plenty behind his back when he was Mayor of London and it worked in his favour for votes. And it seems Boris public appeal to Trump prior to the recent london meeting of G8 to not comment on the election or voice support for Boris, as Trump is unpopular here in general and would play into Labour attacks of selling us out to America post Brexit, was successful. And what was I assume a behind the scenes request to the Americans the only thing Trump said touching on the election was that the NHS and drug pricing was not even up for consideration as part of a trade deal. Countering the Labour narrative. So it seems he played the game Boris asked of them. I am sure their was a price (probably that drugs and stuff wont be in a trade deal , just another differently named one!     )
But as always with Boris its about what serves the political need of the moment to ensure his own survival. He will lick Trumps boots when he thinks it suits him politically too or if he feels it will get a deal, or publicly mock him if that better suits him and he no longer needs him for a deal- say if it looks like Trump's getting impeached or all but guaranteed to lose the US election.
Trump and Boris are very alike but the difference is that Boris is not just more intelligent and educated he is a life long politician. It's why in a way he is far more dangerous than Trump.}}

{{ Well thats my vote cast.
Polling stations close at 10pm GMT and the BBC and other channels will put out their joint exit poll shortly after. }}

{{ So predictions time!!!! Place your bets!

I'm going to call a Tory win with a majority between 15-30, with an outlying high of 40 if Labour do worse than I think.
Labour will gain seats in some areas in south but lose to many in north of England and collapse in Scotland.
SNP will win Scotland but not by as much as expected, unfortunately I think they will be squeezed between Independence supporters who voted leave and Unionists, especially as almost every Scottish seat is a marginal (one seat last time libdems won over SNP by 2 votes!), the lib-dem will about hold onto their scottish seats and Tories will do better than expected. Scottish Labour will crash and burn and post their worst results ever. A caveat to this, because of the marginal nature of all the seats it spossible that there could be a conservative surge in Scotland where they contest SNP and the difference is less than 200 votes either way to swing it, or the SNP could hit an unexpected high of even 50 seats if those marginals swing their way, with so many narrow seats even a small difference in turn out could switch a seat.

So overall UK result - Tory win with majority, Labour 2nd but distant 2nd, SNP 3rd, then Lib dems. and Greens.

Not a prediction to make me happy, but sadly thats what the available data seems to be pointing towards I think. }}

{{ Looks like turnout in England at least, and especially in London is surpassing expectations with huge lines of people forming at polling stattions. }}

hmmm my predictions, first the way I want it to go, if I am being super positive.

A hung parliament due to the 'Youth-Quake'. it isn't enough for Labour to get a win because even with the youth vote it isn't enough to swing it. But it keeps the Tories out and that's the main thing. I also hope that some noteable 'scalps' are taken, like the repulsive sociopath IDS losing his seat to labour's Faiza Shaheen, which would be my birthday present for the next 10 years sorted. Also the Demonic Raab loses his, John Redwood loses his, and glory of glories the students from Brunel University who are mostly BAME, tell Johnson where to stick his Windrush.

that's the positive, but the reality will be a small Tory majority and RIP Britain. Tomorrow is after all, Friday 13th.

Good luck to you all. Wishing you many fine scalps Figgy!

Well, I just voted

I've previously voted in two general elections, the EU referendum and maybe two or three local elections (a couple of which were postal votes), on other occasions I'd voted during the morning or afternoon and it was usually fairly quiet at the polling station with maybe four or five people wandering in and out with no queue, tonight was a different story I counted maybe 12-15 people queing up, and maybe another dozen walking in or out, the presiding officer also mentioned it had been a very good turnout.

Whether this reflects a higher than usual turnout this year in my area I can't say (it may have simply been the time of the day-a rush of people voting after getting back from work, which I myself had to do this year (yay for paid employment!) but it was quite interesting and good to see more people of all ages voting this year.

Of course, it means precisely nothing on a local level-my constituency has been Conservative continuously since 1885

Been a while since we've seen you here, Malick!

halfwise wrote:Been a while since we've seen you here, Malick!

Yeah it's been a while halfy its always great to drop in, I'm in a really good place mentally at the moment, but just been busy at work (only a temp part time job but it's a start and I'm really enjoying it) still going strong with my girlfriend (two years in january! where has the time gone...) and volunteering, hopefully I'll be able to drop by more frequently.

Back on topic, the first exit polls should be released just after 10pm I think? (so about 20-25 minutes from the time of me writing this post) I'm seeing reports on twitter/reddit of rumours doing the rounds that a few surprising upsets are coming...(some are syaing Boris may be in danger of loosing his seat)...on the other hand the polls/coverage in the media on the election until now seems to have pointed towards a Tory majority.

I'm making a early guess for a slim Tory majority with major gains in northern england/south wales, and most of their maginal seats wiped out, 8 or 10 SNP gains and none for the Brexit party.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1205245992272089089

...Ok, i take that back, the UK is cmpletely fucked.

Once again a completely wasted vote.

I really do fucking hate England sometimes (and its political landscape entirely).

Don't think I'll ever vote again as long as I live in this area.

{{ Malick

Yeah exit polls spell doom! SNP will have done a lot better than I expected if this is true- rumours Swinson willl lose her seat to them too.  

But this is the end of Corbyn if true surely? Expect Labour to descend into factions and infighting for a good while leaving no proper opposition to hold Boris to account. Making it even worse. }}

{ Tory's just took Blyth Valley- traditional welsh working class labour supporting mining town. That does not bode well for Labour. }}