UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

{{ Halfy- no not equal sizes. The Uk is broken up into constituencies, in each constituency there is an election on the first past post system to elect the local MP. They are not at all of equal size or based on population, more often especially in Scotland, Wales and north of England they are along geographical lines.
Its as simple as parties stand in each constituency in a first past the post vote, most votes wins, whoever wins get 1 MP, they win the seat. Then the total of seats for each party is added up to see who has won most seats and they are the government.
But it's disadvantegous to smaller parties who may have a lot of support just spread over lots of constiuencies where individually they dont have the numbers to win in a first past post system- so even if they get a good share of the vote nationally it doesnt normally translate into seats locally.
This was also true of Farages UKIP when it was at its peak- it had a large share of the vote in the country but spread out all over so only ever got 1 seat- which was not at all representitive of their vote share nationally at the time. }}

{{ Tories are claiming that the result gives them a mandate from the people to carry out Brexit.
At same time they are arguing the SNP result does not give them a mandate as they didnt win over 50% of the vote!

Problem there is the Tories won on 44% of the back of winning 55% of seats in England and Wales.
The SNP got 45% of the vote and took 81% of Scottish seats.

If Boris has got a mandate from the people then so too does Stugeon. And that Tory line of argument is going to be a hell of a hard sale here. }}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ Yup Swinson had a terible campaign, and it was entirely her decision to take the party in the direction of nullyfing the referendum result if elected- that  was a big gamble that backfired massively.

Corbyn sadly is not going to go without a fight, and that goes double for the Unions backing him, I agree entirely with your assement Figg- but I fear it will take Labour a very long time to reach the same conclusion.

Boris just played a good game- he avoided anything which might expose him (like interviews with Andrew Neil) spent the eleciton out round the country meeting people and relying on his affable chummy routine to convince them he wasnt a threat, combined with smart advertising campaigns like a simple slogan- lets get it done- and effective political adverts like the love actually one, which again reinforced the Boris is not threatning line, look how loveable he is yet dedicated to doing the job? It worked a treat as part of a whole joined-up campaign that remained on message- same is true of Tory members standing, they were all on the same page going into the election, all behind Boris. Compare to Labour where Corbyn said he'd remain neutral and would not campaign either way whilst half his cabinet said they'd  campaign for remain and half for leave- comparably the message was muddy, confusing and lacked certainity. Add in all the worrying far-left student stuff, anti-seminitism claims from the Jewish Council, Corbyns terrorist backing past and real working people were turned away in droves.}}

just to pick up on the anti-Semitism charge against Corbyn, there isn't actually any written proof that Corbyn is an anti-Semite, but there is however, written proof that Johnson is keen on racial stereotypes, according to a fictional novel he wrote called '72 Virgins' in which he goes on a racist rampage, and accuses Jews of controlling the media...

"Maybe there was some kind of fiddling of the figures by the oligarchs who ran the TV stations (and who were mainly, as some lost no time in pointing out, of Jewish origin), but it seemed that Russia, one of the most populous countries in the world, was voting heavily for America."

he also calls Black people "coons" and other racial slurs about Muslims.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-book-jews-control-media-general-election-a9239346.html

Don't remember the head Rabbi being scandalised over this books racial stereotyping, but maybe because he is a Tory?

Corbyn has never 'backed terrorists' he is a champion of the Palestinians. all these things were just Tory ammo, the right wing press did a hatchet job on Ed Milliband too, and he of course is Jewish, I don't remember the head Rabbi defending Ed Milliband, which is odd, very odd, but maybe that's because he is a Tory.



But I agree that Corbyn has been an unmitigated disaster and a tragedy as he was going to scrap UC and tuition fees and other bad things.

{{ The Jewish Council believed there was aproblem and them publicly saying so during the campaign had an effect- whether you think they are right or not is not material to the effect it had on the election.
As to terrorist supporting- he has made many questionable choices in that regard, with particular to the IRA. But also attending memorials for terrorists and laying wreaths for terrorists.
There is a differnce between say standing up for the rights of the Palestinians and questioning and challening Israel and actively being seen to support terrorists.
And his excuses never sound true- such as the wreath laying incident for the people responsible for the Munich bombings which murdered 12 people, 11 Israeli atheletes and a german police officer, where he says in this interview 'I was there but not involved in it' yet we have photos of him laying the wreath clearly involved in it.
Its these little disparities between what he says and the evidence that casts doubt in peoples minds about where he stands.}}

{{ Sums up the Tory hypocriosy nicely on Indie ref 2 }}

https://www.facebook.com/theSNP/videos/2532445470324779/

The wreath laying thing has long been debunked as an attempt by the Daily Mail (go figure) to smear Corbyn. Corbyn did not support terrorism, he was there to lay a wreath for the innocent people killed by Israeli air strikes on the PLO. The PLO is not a terrorist organisation, its recognised as a legitimate organisation worldwide. The bombers just happened to be buried in the same cemetery. The wreath laying was not for the Munich bombers, as I am sure you know.

{{ I dont doubt he was there well intentioned Figg. Misguided in my view, naive too, but in his own head well-intentioned, But he can't say that, that's part of his problem.
First he said he wasnt there. Then he said he was there but he didn't participate. Then when the photos surfaced showing he did he said he did lay a wreath but it was for everyone killed. It sounds like he is lying even when he isn't. }}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ I dont doubt he was there well intentioned Figg. Misguided in my view, naive too, but in his own head well-intentioned, But he can't say that, that's part of his problem.
First he said he wasnt there. Then he said he was there but he didn't participate. Then when the photos surfaced showing he did he said he did lay a wreath but it was for everyone killed. It sounds like he is lying even when he isn't. }}

Agreed. He was a useless leader and sometimes slightly shifty individual, but his heart was in the right place as regards the under-dog. What is really astounding is the fact he hasn't yet resigned. That is a sign of a pretty stubborn person unable to face reality. I cant wait for him to get back to his allotment. If the Labour party chooses Starmer or Angela they may have a chance, if not its going to be decades in the wilderness, what a dumbass situation they are in. Not keen on Long-Bailey, she reminds of the Queen/Helena B Carter in Tim Burton's Alice. Her eyebrows are weird in that egg-head.

When I think of kipper brexit, I listen to this and feel much better.

can't see it in my country.

But I think it's this:



I like the theme of music by an older man setting the youth all to dancing. Has a grandfather/grandkids feeling to it.

yep its lovely, it gives me hope that the European kids are going to put things right.

Yeah, kids these days are sweet. Hopefully they won't get ruined going through life.

{{ In some respect this election has turned out very weird.

Something unexpected, by me at least, that I had simply not taken into consideration, might be about to happen. Or at least has the potential to happen.

It has a few moving parts so bear with me.
First part is that Boris has no real political ideaology, by inclination and taking out his moves that were purely ambition led, he is a centre right, occasionaly even centre left (whilst Mayor of London in particular) Tory. But in order to achieve his aims he has donned the mask as Mayor of as left of centre, and in his manouvres into PM aligned himself to the hard right of the party. But his main ambition has always been the same, to be PM and to remembered as one of the Tory greats, alongside his hero Churchill and up with Thatchers legacy.

Moving part two is Tories now have a lot of MP's in parts of England they have either never had in history, or have not had for 50-80 years. The sort of poverty led problems that fill these areas, the issues with benefits, drugs, alcohol, petty and minor but persisitant crime, food banks, poor services, lack of facilities and community facilities - all the things caused by Tory rule normally are now their responsibilbity.
If these Tories wish to hold onto these seats for more than a one-off election, and they do, then they will have to respond to the needs of the local people who will decide their future. And the bulk of the Tory MP's elected to these areas are not from the south sent up north, they are born and bred there, giving an increased chance they have a genuine desire to improve those areas for the people there, not just exploit them.

Lastly Boris made his first major speeech as the newly elected PM from one of those northern constituencies where he promised he would return the trust they had given him in switching from genrational voting for Labour.
And one of the first things he is propsoing doing is to make increases to the NHS on a yearly basis something bound to by law.
On top of this Boris is talking about using captialist market principles to create a strong economy in order to fund social services and infrastructure, not big buisness and tax cuts for the wealthy lie normal Tory policy.

This may sound familar, its what the SNP do. In fact much of Boris rhetoric at least on improving services is straight out the SNP book.
And the SNP did the same thing, got a hold in traditonal Labour heartlands and appealed to them by promising competent economic management with the benfits of the sort of social funding only Labour previously promised.

There is therefore a chance a combinationof these things - Boris's wish to be rememebred as one of the greats plus is lack of commitment to either the left or right of his party save at need, northern Tories being elected in Labour strongholds with Labour social issues, and the example of how this was the playbook that wiped Labour out in Scotland, might just lead Boris to running a centralist Tory government once he gets Bresit out of the way. And he even has room now to ignore the Mogg lot and have a more moderate Brexit than the slogans and shouting would hint towards.

Its an optimist outlook for a Tory government, but to use a Scottish expression when it comes to politics and appealing to the electorate, Boris is a right canny bastard.

It will still be a total disater for the devolved parliaments however particularly the Scottish one and the SNP - that has not changed.
By the end of this week Sturgeon will have officially written to Boris demanding the right to hold a second referendum next year, and Boris has said, and he will, refuse it.
And then between now and the Scottish elections the full weight of the civil service will be taxed with bringng down the SNP. Publicly this will be done by a large increase of critiscm of anything in Scotland than can be painted as failing or doing badly, attacks on record in government and upping the old Scottish Tory attack line of the SNP are so focused on independence they are letting everything else slide.
And privately they will be getting the civil service to hunt out private papers, internal memos, anything whcih can be leaked to the press that paints the SNP or any of its members in a negative light. Private lives will be targeted too. A huge smear campaign.
In legislation I expect infrastructure projects to somehow be taken out of the devolved settlement inabling Boris to build new stuff in Scotland as a bribe whilst branding it with Union propoganda and the idea we are only able to get this stuff because we are part of the Union.
This fight will be messy indeed. }}

get ready for Salmond to be used as ammo, its a good job Sturgeon distanced herself early on. If you have Scottish newspapers on your side you may be spared the bulk of the Daily Mail bullshit onslaught. Its probably wise to have a 2nd indiref before Johnson silences the courts. His first job will be to remove the supreme court from anything political.

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ This fight will be messy indeed. }}

Interesting! Messy, yes, but if it becomes a bloody no-holds barred battle to see who can best govern in the interests of the people, that can't be all bad.

{{{ Been reading the commentary on Boris's latest move - to put it in law that Parliament cannot extend the leave date again, meaning even if a trade deal is not in place by the end of it we leave on a no deal, WTO rules scenario and parliament would be unable to prevent it- and it seems to me everyone is reading this move wrong.

Commentaros either say Boris really wants no deal and has all along and this is a way to ensure he can get it, he'll run down the clock, fail to get a deal and leave without one. On the other side are those saying he is bowing to the right of the party the ERG and those who put him in power.

But I think you have to look at how Boris has got where he is. He started with a few aims- he needed to get a Withdrawl Deal through Parliament, unite his own party around one plan and increase his majority.
So first he tried to passs the deal- but knew it was not possible as things stood because his party and Parliament were so split - but he held the vote anyway flushing out those in his own party who voted against it. Then he immediatly took the gamble of pulling the nuclear option. He threw out his party some of its longest standing and most well known faces throwing his own majority out the window with them. This made it even less possible to pass the bill, so again he took a massive gamble and pulled the nuclear trigger, and just suspended parliament so they couldn't stop it.
When that backfired he had no more options left to passing the bill in Parliament as it stood, and so he pressed for an election, knowing a majority would let him pass his bills.
And as we saw, with a single message, a united party behind it purged of dissenters and a weak opposition he now has the largest majority since Thatcher. The floor is his.

So whats this got to do with passing a law to stop Parliament blocking leaving? Well its not about Parliament, its not about the ERG or any of that. Its Boris's pattern. In each of the above scenarios whenever Boris is faced with a situation which seems tactically unwinable, he goes immediatly to the nuclear option. He goes straight to the most extreme measure he could take.

When it comes to making a trade deal with the EU within a year the situation is again seemingly unwinnable. The EU by all accounts hold most of the cards, but not all, the UK has just enough to make a hand of it if played very well, but it is very much against us.
Faced with that Boris has gone nuclear on the EU. He has picked the option which says 'you will make a deal with us within the year or we walk and nothig can stop it this time not even Parliament' gambling that the EU, wanting to keep some of those Uk cards in their hands will agree a deal, and doing so in a hasty year will yeild better results for the UK than a lengthy negotiation over several years with a bad hand will.
It also has side beneifits, it does indeed keep happy and onside the ERG wing of the party, it tells leave voters see I meant it when I said I'd get it done, and likeprevious moves it makes the opposition paint him as the villain and scream hysterically about no deal, and like before Boris can, if his gamble pays off, pull it out the hat at the last minute with a deal and they are left looking foolish again and as having spent a year objecting to something which never existed as a real threat to begin with.
I have said it before and stick to it, Boris does not want a no deal, he knows it would be the end of his premiership, but he is either brave or foolish enough to gamble a no deal to get a deal.

Ths new law is just another in a long line now of massive political gambles Boris has pulled since he became PM.
We won't know for a year if this one also pays off like all the others have so far. But its probably got a chance. }}

...or, its Cummings plan which I think is more likely. I don't think Johnson has the brains to be a master strategist, he has paid someone to strategist for him.

I wish more people (myself included) in the UK knew/cared as much about Politics and the future direction of these Isles as much as you Petty...but frankly I find it increasingly hard to give a shit about any of it, when I talk to anyone about elections, brexit etc they all seem just as fed up/indifferent as me-and i live in a safe seat which hasn't changed hands since 1885 (or ever as far as I know) my vote is literally worthless.

still cant believe they are giving that sociopathic monster IDS a knighthood. if you can please sign the petition.

https://www.change.org/p/uk-government-and-parliament-we-object-to-iain-duncan-smith-receiving-a-knighthood

Signed !!!!! There's an old saying...…"the worse you are the better you get on "...…….

great Az

about 170.000 have signed, lets hope it does some good.

{{ And so the Brexit truth begins to trickle out!

'The chancellor has warned manufacturers that "there will not be alignment" with the EU after Brexit and insists firms must "adjust" to new regulations...Sajid Javid admitted not all businesses would benefit from Brexit..."There will be an impact on business one way or the other, some will benefit, some won't."

Then he went on to try to imply it was business own fault-

"We're also talking about companies that have known since 2016 that we are leaving the EU."

Before after being pressed having to confess-

"Admittedly, they didn't know the exact terms."

Before going on to indicate that the government are going to borrow large sums of money to pay for all their promises on NHS and new infrastructure in the midlands and north of England.

'Historically low interest rates, which allow the government to borrow money relatively cheaply, were "almost a signal to me from the market - from investors - that here's the cash, use it to do something productive", Mr Javid said.'

Before making a ridiculous promise he will never meet-

'The chancellor also said he wanted to double the UK's annual economic growth to between 2.7 and 2.8%...governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, told the Financial Times last week he thought the UK's trend growth rate was much lower, at between 1 and 1.5%...In November, the Bank of England said a weaker global economy and its new assumptions about Brexit would knock 1% off UK growth over the next three years compared with its previous August forecast.'- BBC

This is just the start I fear. }}

...yep this is just the beginning of a very long and painful process. On the positive side the Tories will have to OWN it, they wanted it, they are getting it, they WON it like a poisonous scratch-card from hell. Now 'the people' will finally 'win' brexit lets see how many of the brexiteers lose their jobs and become poorer. Unfortunately everyone will suffer, specially the kids which is a terrible legacy to leave them. Uk citizens abroad are going to be left to sink or swim, as are EU citizens in the UK. I hope there isn't another Windrush type scandal, but with Priti Goebbels Patel in charge I wouldn't rule out a police state crackdown on EU citizens. its going to be a Tory shitefest. You are well out of it in Scotland I reckon Petty, you have Sturgeon to protect her citizens, the English may eventually have Starmer if Momentum don't stage a stitich-up and shoe-horn Iracebeth the Red Queen, with her egg-head and weird eyebrows, into power. With Starmer there is hope for the labour party and I would rejoin immediately.

Thanks again for sharing your insights. I'm still left scratching my head at all of this, but if it wasn't for the window of Forumshire I'd probably just tune it all out and focus on shitstorms closer to home. You folks make it feel more personal...