Re: UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

by Bluebottle Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:28 pm

Well, the arguments for remaining in the UK are quickly melting away when two of the four countries involved are being dragged out of a regional partnership against their democratic wishes to their major detriment.

Westminister and brexit supporters will probably still find the audacity to argue "better together", but now you can take all the arguments of the Brexit campaign and throw it straight back in their faces.

by Bluebottle Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:05 pm

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-is-drunk-on-sovereignty-and-all-puffed-up-with-no-place-to-go-1.3028005

by malickfan Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:04 pm

Browsing random threads on Reddit (which isn't necessarily a good indication of actual fact given how left leaning and young redditors often are) and it seems strange so many Europeans seem to be taking Brexit personally, the UK was never 100% committed to the the EU anyway and opposed to the concept of ever greater unity, with us out of the way the 27 remaining members can focus on taking the EU in the direction they want to go without little englanders holding them back.

I've never really identified as European (and I'm opposed to the idea of a European superstate some EU politicians seem keen to eventually move towards) so was something of a reluctant remainer (both in the sense of reluctantly voting because I don't think the referendum should have happened, and reluctant because whilst I did vote Remain, that was more for economic reasons and a fear of what a Tory government would do in a post EU UK rather than any huge love for the European Union) but I think some of the concerns being bandied about Brexit are over the top, yes in a worse case scenario the economy could go down the shitter and we could crash out without a deal, but it is in every parties mutual interest to come to a amicable sensible conclusion.

Frankly I'm not sure I agree that Britain should be heavily punished for wanting to regain some of the control of its borders and trade...no matter how misguided and loony some of the Brexiteers hopes and views may be the EU isn't perfect and I do think there were valid reasons for wanting to leave beyond the stupid 'Kick all them polish mooslims out innit', it's no wonder so many in deprived areas voted Leave as a protest vote when they are so often looked down on as nothing more than dumb racist idiots.

I'm not defending either side of the argument and I'm not particularly happy we are leaving the EU, but Brexit is going to happen and now we have to make the best of a bad decision, if it fails...well at least the Tories are likely to be voted out of power and no matter what it will force the UK (especially England) to take a good long look at itself in the mirror re-axmine its role in a post Empire world.

by David H Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:34 pm

malickfan wrote:and no matter what it will force the UK (especially England) to take a good long look at itself in the mirror re-axmine its role in a post Empire world.

That's a good point Malick. And the UK isn't the only nation on the winning side of WWII who could do with a good look in the mirror. Both USA and Russia spend too much time looking backward toward the 20th world, I'm thinking Suspect

by Bluebottle Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:47 pm

It is not about punishing the UK, it is simply that the UK can't cherry pick which part of the EU partnership they want to maintain. It is the UK government that has choosen a "hard brexit". They have specifically choosen a different solution than the Norwegian one, where Norway is not part of the EU, but is part of the internal market. Norway makes payments for the membership of the market, and accept EU legislation in the areas the EEA agreement cover. Norway at the same time accept the rules of the internal market, the four freedoms of movement of goods, services, workers and establishments throughout the Union. The UK does not want that as they at all cost want to curb imigration.... They do not want a Swiss solution, which I do not know as much about, but it is a sectoral approach outside the EEA agreement, which includes free movement of people.

https://euobserver.com/justice/136398

What the EU think is most likely is a solution simmilar to the one between the EU and Ukraine or Canada.

"A model for this special type of partnership could be provided by the Association and Free Trade Agreement which the EU has concluded with the Ukraine. This has been in effect since 1 January 2016, although some of it only provisionally because ratification by the Netherlands is still outstanding.

"Firstly, the "Ukraine Model" corresponds to the British objectives in that it contains substantial market access but does not require the application of EU law or compliance with the case law of the ECJ, nor does it provide for free movement but it does allow free trade agreements with third countries. Thus the United Kingdom's four key requirements are met."

http://www.cep.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/cep.eu/Studien/cepAdhoc_Brexit/cepAdhoc_Ukraine_Plus_as_a_model_for_Brexit.pdf

This is what the EU Parliament dradft resolution on brexit states.

Future EU-United Kingdom relationship
21. Acknowledges the notification of 29 March 2017 and the White Paper on "The United
Kingdom's exit from and new partnership with the European Union";

22. Believes that the future relationship between the European Union and the United
Kingdom should be balanced, comprehensive and serve the interests of the citizens of
both parties and will therefore need sufficient time to be negotiated; stresses that it
should cover areas of common interests while respecting the integrity of EU's legal
order and the fundamental principles and values of the Union, including the integrity of
the Single Market as well as decision making capacity and autonomy of the Union;
notes that Article 8 TEU and Article 217 TFEU 'establishing an association involving
reciprocal rights and obligations, common action and special procedures' could provide
an appropriate framework for such a future relationship;

23. States that, whatever the outcome of the negotiations on the future EU-UK relationship,
they cannot involve any trade-off between internal and external security including
defence cooperation, on the one hand, and the future economic relationship, on the other hand;

24. Stresses that any future agreement between the European Union and the United
Kingdom is conditional on the United Kingdom's continued adherence to the standards
provided by the Union's legislation and polices, in among others the fields of environment,
climate change, the fight against tax evasion and avoidance, fair competition, trade and social policy;

25. Opposes any agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom that would contain
piecemeal or sectorial provisions, including with respect to financial services, providing
UK-based undertakings preferential access to the Single Market and, or the Customs
Union; underlines that after its withdrawal the UK will fall into the third country regime
foreseen in EU legislation;

26. Notes that if the United Kingdom requests to participate in certain EU programmes it
will be as a third country including appropriate budgetary contributions and oversight by
the existing jurisdiction; would welcome in this context its continued participation in a
number of programmes, such as Erasmus;

27. Takes note that many citizens in the United Kingdom have expressed strong opposition
to losing the rights they currently enjoy pursuant to Article 20 TFEU; proposes that the
EU-27 examine how to mitigate this within the limits of EU primary law whilst fully
respecting the principles of reciprocity, equity, symmetry and non-discrimination;

https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/343381933-Draft-Resolution.pdf

You have to realize, the UK choose to leave, the UK is choosing how to leave. It is the UK that chooses to become a third nation state in relation to the Union, and not to have a closer partnership. Leaving will mean something less and less valuable than membership. Because, that is the Whole point of being a member. It is the UK's Choice to make the brexit "hard", People didn't vote on that part. Rather the envisaged solution was more often mentioned as remaining in the single market. If you want to blame anyone for anything re brexit, the buck stops with the national government of the UK.

by Mrs Figg Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:34 am

I am devastated. Still cant believe it.

by malickfan Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:00 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/31/future-of-gibraltar-at-stake-in-brexit-negotiations

Very sneaky move by Spain that puts the EU in a strong position, I can't see any UK Government (even this one) willing to negotiate a deal that doesn't take Gibralter's views into account-and they have time and again shown overwhelmingly they are opposed to joint sovereignty with Spain (take away the warmer weather and I've seen some say Gibraltans are more proudly British than many in the UK), but are massively economically dependent on the EU...

Will be very interesting to see how the ~~Little Englanders~~Brexiteers react to this...on the other hand this just seems like idealistic opportunism by Spain...

by halfwise Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:08 pm

I had a pint in a Gibralter pub once. I do seem to remember it's awfully difficult to find any spanish food on the Rock. They will not submit gracefully to Spanish rule.

by Lancebloke Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:10 pm

One of the key pieces of the EU opening stance is around the border in Ireland. They really should have included Gibraltar too.

by Mrs Figg Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:59 pm

what a mess. the whole thing will go tits up.

by Bluebottle Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:08 pm

Well, quite obviously Gibraltar doesn't feel spanish, it's populated by english people Rolling Eyes

The Gibraltar thing seems weird to me, Spain is the ultimate anti secession party in the EU, to avoid stirring up secessionist dreams in Catalunya and elsewhere. They would not be politically well served by pushing this point re Gibraltar. The current spanish right wing (PP lead) government is pretty good on hypocrisy though, along with corruption.

On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of Gibraltar residents supported remaining in the EU. And, honestly, they deserve to be heard on their wishes for their own future just as much as the Scottish and the Northern Irish. Shrugging

by Bluebottle Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:30 pm

by Mrs Figg Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:11 pm

dat letter.

the loonies are threatening war with Spain. just when you think the bonkers has ended, they start up again. Rolling Eyes

by halfwise Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:40 pm

btw, why do neither google or apple maps list any of the businesses in Gibralter? Military strategy? Or did the monkeys make off with all of it?

by Bluebottle Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:55 pm

Clegg argued that Labour was attempting to cater for 100% of voters, a strategy that would disappoint everybody.

He said the party had backed article 50 because it had let the vote be defined by the Daily Mail view of the world that it would be “thwarting the will of the people – it was 24-carat crap”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/03/nick-clegg-lets-join-forces-and-beat-the-brexiteers

Clegg basically fucked the UK and the Liberal party by supporting a minority Tory government to run straight Tory policy, but in the context of brexit you are starting to see why people liked him as a politician pre-disastrous coalition. That one will go down as one of the disastrous political miscalculations of the ages though.

by Mrs Figg Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:50 am

that's the most sensible thing he has ever said. pity he wasn't so principled before. but he is right Britain is being run by a cabal of old men.

by Bluebottle Sun Apr 09, 2017 4:18 pm

by halfwise Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:11 pm

Our news here is filled with Trump supporters who are discovering they got a raw deal.

by Lancebloke Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:35 am

halfwise wrote:Our news here is filled with Trump supporters who are discovering they got a raw deal.

Well... We didn't see that coming...

by halfwise Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:32 pm

But to be fair most Trump supporters here seem to think he's doing a good job; it's those at the bottom of the economic barrel who are finding they screwed themselves, and the liberal media are seeking them out - perhaps making them look like a larger percentage than they really are.

How two groups of people can look at the same circus and get very different impressions is a deep lesson on political perception. It's very important to read both sides of the story here.

Some of it I can't wrap my head around. De-regulating industry so it can dump poisonous pollution makes me want to start throwing rocks in bewildered consternation; de-regulating greenhouse gasses makes me sigh loudly and admit we haven't done a good job with communication.

by Mrs Figg Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:51 pm

brexiteers will find they screwed themselves before long too.

by malickfan Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:22 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/11/half-of-young-adults-in-the-uk-do-not-feel-european-demos-survey

I certainly don't feel particularly 'European', although I'm a White English guy with ancestry from various corners of the continent going back centuries and geographically European I've never felt like the UK shared that much culturally with the mainland...

by Eldorion Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:41 pm

The part about 20% of young people not feeling British was more surprising to me.

Demos surveyed 1,994 young adults from England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to test the feelings of national identity in modern multicultural Britain.

They found that one in five 18- to 30-year-olds did not feel British, while those that did feel British seemed to tally with the parts of the country that voted in favour of Brexit.

Feelings of Britishness were strongest in the north-east, where 93% said they felt “to some extent” or “to a great extent” British.

In Northern Ireland, which voted 55.8% to remain in the EU, that feeling of Britishness dropped to 62%, while in Scotland, which also voted to remain, just 59% say they feel British.

I rather doubt that lower feelings of Britishness in Scotland and Northern Ireland are because people are more pro-Europe, but I'd be curious to see if the correlation held true within England as well. Unfortunately the full data set doesn't seem to be available yet on the site the Guardian links to.

by Bluebottle Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:58 pm

I think Scotland is a strongly pro-European country. That is the impression I have gotten from following Scottish politics on and off since pre independce referendum. Ireland is also the most pro-European country in Europe. But Northern Ireland is one of the most politically complicated places on the whole continent. Hard to say. Shrugging

by Bluebottle Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:59 pm