UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

{{In fairness I think Boris was on that bus too and he was official Leave and a government minister}}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{In fairness I think Boris was on that bus too and he was official Leave and a government minister}}

That's true, but I don't think Boris expected to win nor believed half the stuff he was spouting...

I wonder if these people believe every advert they see on the side of a Bus...

personally I think the gene pool has become dumber and dumber. yonks ago in ye olden days truly outrageously thick people would have been culled by evolution/Mother Nature, and only the people who lived by their wits would have survived, but these days there's social cushioning so the plonkers can live quite easily, and demand their idiotic voice be heard, and read the Daily Mail, and believe any old drivel.

https://twitter.com/TimesMagazine/status/830099036883525634

Tennant supported the Union in 2014 and lives in England.

Sylvester McCoy was already a yes supporter I believe, though Capaldi's lived in London for nearly 30 years and votes Labour I think.

On a related note, Colin Baker voted LEAVE I think, staying true to the character of the 6th Doctor

http://bruegel.org/2017/02/questionable-immigration-claims-in-the-brexit-white-paper/

I was just reading a couple stories about byelections and Tony Blair and I couldn't quite sort it all out. I was wondering if anyone could help me?

{{I can try but can you be a bit more specific Dave about exactly what about Blair and by-elections they were saying? }}

Sure Petty. Here's the first article I saw:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/world/europe/tony-blair-uk-brexit.html
but when I searched I found other spins. The pot is clearly being stirred, but to what effect?
A couple questions to get you started:
How much influence does Blair's voice swing these days?
Would you compare his criticism of Labor to McCain's recent criticisms of the Trump administration, for example?
What exactly is at stake in a byelection? (It's significantly different than our midterm elections, isn't it?)

{{{ 'How much influence does Blair's voice swing these days?'

Not much I would say- in Scotland at least is name is mud after Iraq and I think its largely true in England too. I would put is intervention in the Brexit debate under the headline- 'sideshow'.

'Would you compare his criticism of Labor to McCain's recent criticisms of the Trump administration, for example?'

No. Blair is a left of centre with the emphasis on centre (though some myself would argue much of his 'New Labour' policies were in fact right of centre by UK standards) his grief with Corbyn is that he is from the more left wing of the Labour party- in terms of overall ideology they are not a million miles apart- in how you go about best achieving left wing social policy they differ hugely however- with Blair prepared to use markets, private/public partnerships and against nationalisation of industries-  ect Corbyn on the otherhand believes in public run services paid for by the taxpayer and strong regulation of private interests. He is a lot more like Bernie Sanders in the US.

'What exactly is at stake in a byelection? (It's significantly different than our midterm elections, isn't it?'

By-elections happen for a number of reasons-- first what one is!

At an election every constituency votes in an MP who sits in the Commons. But if during the term of that Parliament the MP has to stand down for any reason then you have a by-election to elect a new MP.

So By-elections can be a way to judge the public mood- opposition look to steal seats off the government during the parliamentary term ( which are fixed at 5 years) by wining by-elections and increasing their MP's in the Commons whilst reducing the governments. But it can also be a tricky thing to extrapolate wider public mood from as often there is a particular local issue that will dominate- but sometimes there isnt and then the vote tends to be viewed as more of a comment on the government of the day- if they win it its a sign they are doing well and the public are responding- if they lose the opposite.

When the government has a narrow majority by-elections can become crucial- and in an extreme case could even turn a govenrment majority in the Commons into a minority over the course of a Parliament. }}}

I 100% agree with Blair on brexit, but people are still cheesed off about Iraq, even though every British government in history was either an arms dealer or warmonger and the Tories sold as many cluster bombs as anyone. which is conveniently forgotten. they all trot off to war but only Blair got it in the neck. If Iraq had been a 'success' in that IS had not popped up like a hydra head to bother the West, nobody would have given a monkeys, but because IS affects us ,its suddenly all Blairs fault. ok he is an arrogant so and so but now the issue is brexit and he is right on this one.

edit I have to say my stance on Blair may be softened by the fact I left the UK shortly after he took power in 1997, so I haven't actually lived under a Blair government for more than the first 3 years , I still remember the good old days when he was the bees knees and Britannia was Cool. Obviously I kept up to date with everything ,but just saying maybe its why I don't hate him as much as some do.

Thanks Petty and Figg. That helps me put the story in perspective.
So my next question is:
Are there any respected elder statesmen south of the Scottish boarder, either left or right, who are taking a public position to reconsider Brexit?

The parallels between Brexit and Trump populism are obvious, as is the populist push-back, but I'm watching now for leadership from within the establishment.

In the US, McCain is highly respected and near the end of his career so he's well positioned (even if Trump hadn't insulted him personally). Is there anybody similar in England?

{{I think the concept of 'elder statesman' differs between UK and US.
We have respected older members- Dennis Skinner is a good example of that, but they dont tend to have much actual clout or influence.
Former PM's are afforded some more weight largely because the British tradition is that they dont interfere or say anything once they leave office, its just not considered the form- so if one does its usually taken as being of some import.
There are exceptions- Thatcher hung about like a bad smell often criticising or offering her opinion on policy of her successor John Major- and he in turn came out and made some comments about David Cameron- and again those were given some weight because its not usual in our system.
The form is normally that either an MP goes to 'the other place' ie the House of Lords- where they continue their political career after a fashion scrutinising legislation. Or they leave politics altogether and tend not be heard from very often, or ever again- see Ed Miliband- or they if they want to remain active they go to the party backbenches- see your Dennis Skinners and his like.

But no matter which way they go actual influence on policy, or public opinion is very limited.
I dont forsee any elder statesman stepping up to lead an anti- brexit revolt.
More likely it will be done by obfuscation, obstruction, and amendments in the Commons, mainly from SNP and Lib Dems as Labour are all over the place on Brexit as approx half their voters are very for it, and half very against.

We are in a slightly better position in Scotland in that we have Sturgeon leading the charge and she at least can have some real influence and the electorate was nowhere as split on the matter as England with over 60% of Scots and every single constituency returning a remain result. Even the constituency of Scotlands only Tory MP voted to Remain- despite that he still went on to toe the Tory party line and voted for triggering Article 50 which begins the exit process. }}}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{I think the concept of 'elder statesman' differs between UK and US.
We have respected older members- Dennis Skinner is a good example of that, but they dont tend to have much actual clout or influence.
}}}

Skinner may be a good example, but he's been pro-Brexit, right? Is there nobody of his caliber in Labor for people like Mrs Figg who are still doubting the wisdom of Brexit to rally around? Your whips must be much bigger than ours...

{{No-one of enough consequence sadly - if Blair's the face they have put up to try to rally support it shows how desperate they are- to pick one of the most polarising figures in recent UK political history. }}

That's a pity. Just as an outside observer I'd think the Labour Party could really benefit from a dissenting voice right now. Somebody like Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Party. It seems like both parties have a lot in common historically and both have lost their way recently.

{{Problem is our Sanders is Corbyn- and he was, at best, luke-warm on the EU to begin with and didn't exactly campaign hard to stay in.
But Labours major problem is that they have two constituencies to appeal too at opposite ends on the EU.
In the north of England in low education, high employment, low earning areas, traditionally Labour heartlands- they voted to Leave.
But in the more cosmopolitan south, particularly in London, and in likewise traditional Labour areas they voted to Remain. And in Scotland though Labour are but a bad joke still here, most voted to Remain, so if Corbyn has any hopes of wining back those lost Scottish votes he needs to appeal to that too.
Corbyn somehow has to find a line that appeals to both groups, Leave and Remain to keep their votes- a nigh impossible task.

The Tories are in an equally odd situation- a large number of their MP's voted to Remain, but the majority of their voters voted to Leave. The upshot of which is the government went with Leave and stamped out dissenting voices in their own ranks (largely) to go along with it to preserve their base. Even though a lot of the Tory MP's think its a terrible idea.

As a result the only committed party to the EU in England are the Lib Dems- who have few MP's, less power, and  less voters. Its hard to imagine they will lead any serious Remain campaign at this point in proceedings or who has enough charisma and communication skill to do so among their diminished ranks.

Hence it taking the intervention of someone like Blair to try to rally round those who do oppose Brexit. But that wont work either because half the population hates his guts and think he lied to the country to take us into an unnecessary war that destabilised the world and has blood on his hands.}}}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{Hence it taking the intervention of someone like Blair to try to rally round those who do oppose Brexit. But that wont work either because half the population hates his guts and think he lied to the country to take us into an unnecessary war that destabilised the world and has blood on his hands.}}}

The same bad smell still hangs over the Bush name. In hindsight poor Jeb never stood a chance. You could make a case that the Republican primary debates and elections would have gone very differently if it weren't for that lingering smell.

there's only Blair and Major, although Skinner is an old warhorse nobody really takes him very seriously any more. idem the other two.

{{Further to your inquiries about by-elections Dave we just had two in England.
Labour lost one of their traditional strongest seats in Copeland and held on in Stoke-on-Trent, though with a slight dip in the their lead and gains for the opposition.
But the Copeland loss is a bad sign- Labour have held it since the seat was created in 1983 and before that when it was Whitehaven they had won it since 1935. To lose it to the Tories now is a Corbyn-shaped disaster however Labour want to paint it.

'Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the Copeland result was the best by-election performance by a governing party in terms of the increase in its share of the vote since January 1966....For a governing party after seven years of austerity to be sweeping aside Labour in a heartland seat and to see their share of the vote increase in another is an extraordinary achievement.'- BBC }}}}

Guardian live blog

Ship: I want to ask you specifically about Copeland. Since you found out that you’d lost a seat to the governing party for the first time since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question: ‘Could the problem actually be me?’

Corbyn: No.

Ship: Why not?

Corbyn: Thank you for your question.

I'm not sure the "No Means No" rule applies to politics....

It does if anything encroaches into their domain. Any sign of things not going Governments way is a bloody big NO

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4NewsDemocracy/videos/1256585151086092/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED

Northern Ireland has the right to leave the United Kingdom and join the European Union as part of the Republic after Brexit, ministers have concluded. According to The Times, ministers have decided that Northern Ireland would not have to reapply for EU membership as a new country if it voted for reunification. The British government’s position was revealed in a letter from Brexit secretary David Davis to SDLP MP Mark Durkan.- The Scotsman

{{The UK is crumbling under Brexit}}