UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

cute too.

He'd make a good Arthur Dent. Rhapsodizing about tea and the like to a computer.

Mrs Figg wrote:cute too.

oh yes

You don't win in a democracy... you vote.

and nobody 'wins' if the vote was rigged by lies and corruption.

Bluebottle wrote:You don't win in a democracy... you vote.

And then "they" go & do what they feckingwell want anyway.

{{2pm today (about now!) May will put her Brexit deal to her cabinet for support.

Exactly what is in the deal is a bit vague but there is really only one issue that dominates- Ireland.

So heres the lay out for those who might not know- Northern Ireland is part of the UK. The rest of Ireland is not, its its own country and part of the EU.
As part of the EU Southern Ireland, or Eire, is in the Customs Union and Regulatory systems of the EU.
After Brexit Northern Ireland as part of the UK, will not be.

Ok now the very brief skate over of history- for a long time (centuries in fact) there has been a strong movement historically along religious lines) for a single united (Catholic dominated) Ireland and for the British to leave- but in Northern Ireland which is dominantly protestant and associate themselves with the UK this is unacceptable.
The upshot if this in most recent times were the Troubles- the IRA terrorist movement- catholic, united Ireland on one side, and the Protestants UK backed, N. Ireland in the UK other side (though worth noting the British army originally went into Northern Ireland to protect the Catholic minority!).
This all came to an eventual head in the Good Friday Peace Agreement- negotiated by Mo Mowlam under Blair's government and with great assistance from President Clinton acting as Arbitrator. Which saw Sein Fein (the political arm of the IRA) renounce violence as a means and take its place in the Stormont Parliament in Northern Ireland with a devolved settlement similar, sort of, to the situation for Scotland.

Prior to this agreement there was a border between North and South and it was a flashpoint of trouble and violence. Since the agreement, ad with Eire and UK both in the EU, there has been no need for one.

Now if Northern Ireland, as part of the UK leaves the EU then that border will need to come back, as if the UK strikes deals for goods with outside countries it may have different standards than good sold in the EU (chlorine washed US chicken being a common example). ien the flashpoint and symbolism of a border dividing Ireland neither side wants this.

The dilemma therefore is how do you take N Ireland out of the EU, leaving Eire in, and have no border between them when they will be part of different political and custom blocks?

The Eu initial proposal was that N Ireland stay in the customs union and the border effectively be down the north sea between Ireland and the rest of the UK- this was unacceptable to May as it 'threatened the integrity of the Union' and for the same reason the Irish Nationalist party the DUP (protestant) who have been supporting the government said they would not continue to do so if this went ahead for much the same reason.

The proposal on the table now is the 'backstop'- this essentially means the same as keeping NI in the customs union, only to preserve the integrity of the UK, it means keeping all the UK in alignment with the regulations in the customs union, thus not requiring a border.

And heres the problem- the Irish government says a backstop cannot goon indefinitely, the Brexiteers in the Tories,led by Mogg and Boris say this effectively ties the UK hands- if we have to stay in line with Eu rules whats the point of leaving? And the Remainers say it amounts to agreeing to stick by the rules whilst renouncing any ability to have a say in the formation of those rules.

Plus at some point the backstop will end and we will need a solution to the border question anyway.

Far as I can see Mays' 'solution' solves nothing, kicks the problem down the road a bit, and is not acceptable to Remainers or Brexiteers. Nor do I see how the hell it will get through Parliament.

Unless there is some new revelation shortly- I dont see how this works, or how it is even a solution. }}

Parliament will not vote for this bollox and I hope the Tories lose the vote and lose power, and it cant come soon enough. I was in Cardiff yesterday and the poverty was shocking, people in tents in shop doorways. You don't see that in Italy people actually living in shop doorways doesn't exist, there were obviously mentally ill people wandering round Cardiff centre and how is that allowed to go on? I really hate the Tories and the day they are ousted I will celebrate like I did when Blair first got in 1997.

Ah, I see it now. Thanks for breaking it down into little pieces Petty!
 I'd been pretty much following it in the news up until the "backstop" part where I was getting lost in the quagmire of political rhetoric

Our only hope is Keir Starmer, I don't have faith that Corbyn will give us a Peoples Vote.

there were obviously mentally ill people wandering round Cardiff centre and how is that allowed to go on? I really hate the Tories - Figg

{{In my small town in my 47 years of life I have twice seen Food Banks at work, and appeals for donations to them due to increased poverty levels- once was under Thatcher, the second time is now. Not I think a coincidence! }}

{{Things are gathering apace! The Cabinet are still locked in- rumours now till at least 7pm. Then the PM will make a statement, then she will make a statement to the House tomorrow.

However, remember the leading Brexiteers, Mogg, Boris and their camp- are not in the Cabinet.
And Letters have been going into the Chairman of the party calling for a vote of no confidence in the PM- 48 is the key number here- if he receives that many letters then she faces a vote of no confidence in the House!

Ok latest additions as I type- the press statement tonight is off, instead the Pm will release a 'short statement' tonight but the PM will make a statement to Parliament tomorrow- things are a foot!}}

{{ 4 1/2 hours later and still no sign of the Cabinet meeting ending! }}

lets hope it goes tits up

{{OOh it is Figg- but this is not good sadly for the country. Dominic Raab the Brexit Secretary has resigned from the Cabinet- I expect him to spark a few more resignations in his wake. But thats a huge blow to May when the Secretary in charge of the negotiations cant accept her deal and walks! Here's his resignation letter-

• Dear prime minister,
  It has been an honour to serve in your government as justice minister, housing minister and Brexit secretary.
  I regret to say that, following the cabinet meeting yesterday on the Brexit deal, I must resign.
  I understand why you have chosen to pursue the deal with the EU on the terms proposed, and I respect the different views held in good faith by all of our colleagues.
  For my part, I cannot support the proposed deal for two reasons.
  First I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom.
  Second, I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit. The terms of the backstop amount to a hybrid of the EU customs union and single market obligations.
  No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide to exit the arrangement.
  That arrangement is now also taken as the starting point for negotiating the Future Economic Partnership.
  If we accept that, it will severely prejudice the second phase of negotiations against the UK.
  Above all, I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we made to the country in our manifesto at the last election.
  This is, at its heart, a matter of public trust.
  I appreciate that you disagree with my judgement on these issues, I have weighed very carefully the alternative courses of action which the government could take, on which I have previously advised.
  Ultimately, you deserve a Brexit secretary who can make the case for the deal you are pursuing with conviction. I am only sorry, in good conscience, that I cannot.
  My respect for you, and the fortitude you have shown in difficult times, remains undimmed.
  Yours sincerely
  Dominic Raab
  

And there are now open calls from Tory Brexit supporting MP's for May to go- no word yet on if that magic number of 48 letters needed for a vote of no confidence has been reached- but that might happen yet, its still very much on the cards.

May is due to give a Statement in the House at 10.30am, abut an hour from now- should be interesting. }}

-------

https://www.hobbitmovieforum.com/viewtopic.forum?t=1409