UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

malickfan wrote:I see you point, but aren't the econmic arguments even worse than they were in 2014?, and it seems to me the UK government could just make the argument that Scotland voted in 2014 with the knowledge they'd have to reapply to the E.U in the result of indepedence, but they also voted to remain with the knowledge they might have been pulled out anyway...and I seriously doubt Whitehall would even have the resources at hand to decouple two unions at the same time, god knows what it would do to the British economy (on both sides of the argument...).

I think the bolded is going to be the main argument against a second Indyref. Remains to be seen what would happen if Scotland organized a vote anyway. Would Westminster try to forcibly stop it? I suspect not ... they'd probably take a similar attitude as the Spanish government did to the Catalan quasi-referendum in 2014. Lower turnout would bolster the argument that such a vote is illegitimate.

Ireland can't afford to unify for the forseeable future, but the UK will not accept an open border at their backdoor, so I guess Ireland is once again getting f*cked over by England

UK had no problem with the Common Travel Area for decades before the EU was a thing, and Ireland's not in Schengen, so I think it's still far from a sure thing that there will be full border controls in Ireland. There will likely be restrictions on the flow of capital and labor but that's not the same thing.

Mrs Figg wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/jul/03/parliament-must-decide-whether-or-not-to-leave-the-eu-say-lawyers

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/deadline-approaches-government-response-brexit-legal-challenge-article-50

surely if every law firm in the country mired the GVT down for years with threats of legal action, we could scupper article 50?

Neither May nor Leadsom has a suicide wish for the Tories. The Leave voters are not going to just go away; any government that tries to overrule the results of the referendum turns the probability of electoral punishment in four years into a certainty. Especially since the Tories are mainly and England and Wales party and that's where the Leave vote was strongest.

aren't the econmic arguments even worse than they were in 2014?- Malick


{{{yes and no. They are worse in the sense the global economy is worse all round for just about everyone. And they are worse in that the oil revenue has significantly fallen.
They will get much worse when we eave the EU as a lot of our new industry is in green energy and renewables in collaboration with the EU.
But you can take the oil out the economy (its so low right now you may as well) and we aint rich but aint poor either. And we have solid natural resources and high quality world respected science, tech and Universities. We do not a bad tourist trade too.
And in my view our economy has a better chance of stability outside the UK and in the EU than it does staying tied to the pound and England out of the EU.
Personally I favour our own currency in the short to medium term.


'they also voted to remain with the knowledge they might have been pulled out anyway.'

{{We were also promised during the referendum that the only way to secure staying in the Eu was to vote for the Union- the Union we voted to join has changed.
On top of that change we recently overwhelmingly elected an SNP government who stood on a well publicised Manifesto commitment to a 2d ref if there was a 'material change' the example they gave of such a change was if we voted to stay in the EU but were forced out .
As that is exactly what has happened the SNP are well within their rights to honour the commitment on which they were elected.}}}

http://247wallst.com/economy/2016/06/24/brexit-means-california-could-soon-be-worlds-fifth-largest-economy/

It's the best Python of them all, and that's saying a lot.

Agreed. It somehow seems to get better as the years go by.

yep it seems to have universal truths.

Derp!

first time I have ever liked Alistair Campbell ergo the Worlds Gone Mad.

Spittin' hot fire at GOT.

{{{{ May is our new PM! Well effectively, her opponent has quit the race only minutes after May gave her big launch speech (an intriguing speech in itself in which she sounded more like a New Labour candidate than a Tory) but not sure how it works now as the membership' were due to vote in Friday, and many probably have already via postal votes. From what I can tell its down to Cameron to just step'down now and crown her. }}}}

I quite liked Leadsom from the 1 interview I heard. Haven't heard May speak in a leadership fashion yet but hopefully she has learned some lessons from the last few years of mess.

{{{ I am still trying to get my head round May's speech- its left of centre stuff and coming from the Tories that's hard to swallow- coming from May?!

Anyway some of the highlights from the ideas she laid out in her speech (from the BBC)

Brexit-

"Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it." there would be "no attempt to rejoin [the EU] by the back door".

Business (this is where it starts getting interesting)-

Mrs May said consumers and workers should have places on their boards.

She also committed to making shareholder votes on corporate pay binding, rather than merely advisory, insisting that support for enterprise does not mean "anything goes" in the City.

she hit out at the way non-executive directors who are supposed to provide oversight of the way firms are run often come from the same "narrow social and professional circles" as the executive team and "the scrutiny they provide is just not good enough".

She said: "So if I'm prime minister, we're going to change that system - and we're going to have not just consumers represented on company boards, but workers as well."
"We're the Conservative Party, and yes, we're the party of enterprise - but that does not mean we should be prepared to accept that 'anything goes'," she said.

Social reform (this is where it starts getting weird coming from May)-

"we need a bold, new, positive vision for the future of our country - a vision of a country that works for everyone - not just the privileged few."

"Right now, if you're born poor, you will die on average nine years earlier than others.
"If you're black, you're treated more harshly by the criminal justice system than if you're white. If you're a white, working-class boy, you're less likely than anybody else to go to university. If you're at a state school, you're less likely to reach the top professions than if you're educated privately.
"If you're a woman, you still earn less than a man. If you suffer from mental health problems, there's too often not enough help to hand. If you're young, you'll find it harder than ever before to own your own home."

She said that "fighting these injustices is not enough", and added: "If you're from a working-class family, life is just much harder than many people in politics realise."

"These are the reasons why, under my leadership, the Conservative Party will put itself - completely, absolutely, unequivocally - at the service of working people."

{{{{Is she standing in the right leadership contest?!! Although not sure how much stock we can put her words, after she says here- "If you're black, you're treated more harshly by the criminal justice system than if you're white." But that would be the same criminal justice system she has been in charge of for the last 6 years!}}}

Lancebloke wrote:I quite liked Leadsom from the 1 interview I heard.

er oooookaaaaay!

Eldorion wrote:

Spittin' hot fire at GOT.

West-minster
West-eros

just sayin.

glad its May. at least they didn't fuck that up. I hope IDS has crawled back under his stone.

If May follows through on even half the things she mentions I feel like she'd be an improvement over Cameron-Osborne, though that'd depend to some extent on who she picks as Chancellor I suppose. Wonder if she's trying to woo over disillusioned Blairites. The Guardian reported on cross-party talks of breaking away if Corbyn and Leadsom became/stayed the leaders.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/labour-tory-mps-talk

{{Well I said a few days ago I suspected Leadsom was a plant to split the Brexit side of the party vote and keep Gove out the top seat- now thats accomplished she decides, at the 11th hour to step down and let May have the crown uncontested }}}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{Well I said a few days ago I suspected Leadsom was a plant to split the Brexit side of the party vote and keep Gove out the top seat- now thats accomplished she decides, at the 11th hour to step down and let May have the crown uncontested  }}}

to be honest Petty, that's what I call a result. who on earth could have stomached Gove?