UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

I agree that there is a lot of good in the EU and, while I have my reservations about it, I was hoping for Remain to win, as I said upthread.

But the EU is supposed to be keen on democracy, while in practice it's been insulated from true popular oversight. Being answerable to the governments of the member states is not the same thing, as the Brexit referendum just proved. As someone with internationalist and technocratic sympathies myself I think the EU is a pretty cool project, but you can't win democratic legitimacy by appealing only to a certain ideological minority.

People picked the wrong referendum to take a protest vote on.

*Nearly at 3000 posts! Screwing up my country wasn't completely awful!

Eldorion wrote:I agree that there is a lot of good in the EU and, while I have my reservations about it, I was hoping for Remain to win, as I said upthread.

But the EU is supposed to be keen on democracy, while in practice it's been insulated from true popular oversight. Being answerable to the governments of the member states is not the same thing, as the Brexit referendum just proved. As someone with internationalist and technocratic sympathies myself I think the EU is a pretty cool project, but you can't win democratic legitimacy by appealing only to a certain ideological minority.

I don't think the Brexit referendum proves anything but that pople can be mislead by blatant misrepresentation and a lack of understanding of the question raised.

Other than that, does the EU have a democratic problem? Yes. I already pointed this out in part. The executive/legislative divide, for instance. But you can't make the same demands of a union of nation states as of a nation state, that is just blatantly unfair. It is not a nation state. It consists of nation states. You have to admit that at least part fo your criticism comes down to PR. (Or, if you will, the blatant misrepresentation mentioned above.)

malickfan wrote:People picked the wrong referendum to take a protest vote on.

This does seem to be the case in a number of cases.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/24/british_voters_regretting_their_decisions_a_roundup.html

Eldorion wrote:

malickfan wrote:People picked the wrong referendum to take a protest vote on.

This does seem to be the case in a number of cases.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/24/british_voters_regretting_their_decisions_a_roundup.html

Sounds about right, a huge amount of people had never voted before...

Have fun building that wall in Mexico

Bluebottle wrote:I don't think the Brexit referendum proves anything but that pople can be mislead by blatant misrepresentation and a lack of understanding of the question raised.

That's how democracy works. Come on, this is hardly the only recent example of a campaign dominated by misinformation.

Other than that, does the EU have a democratic problem? Yes. I already pointed this out in part. The executive/legislative divide, for instance. But you can't make the same demands of a union of nation states as of a nation state, that is just blatantly unfair. It is not a nation state. It consists of nation states. You have to admit that at least part fo your criticism comes down to PR. (Or, if you will, the blatant misrepresentation mentioned above.)

No shit it has to do with PR. The EU is more than just a union of nation states. It has its own Parliament and its own citizenship. It has to pay attention to the will(s) of its constituents or it isn't democratic. And since the member states are themselves democracies, an EU that is perceived as undemocratic was inevitably going to have to face the music eventually. I hope this prompts meaningful reform (not the "deal" Cameron negotiated) moving forward for the EU.

malickfan wrote:Sounds about right, a huge amount of people had never voted before...

Have fun building that wall in Mexico

Hopefully this helps serve as a reminder to Democrats in the US not to get complacent and stay home on election day.

Trump's not gonna win though. If nothing else, electoral college math will beat him.

Eldorion wrote:

Bluebottle wrote:I don't think the Brexit referendum proves anything but that pople can be mislead by blatant misrepresentation and a lack of understanding of the question raised.

That's how democracy works. Come on, this is hardly the only recent example of a campaign dominated by misinformation.

No, but it's one with dramatic and damaging results. And, hey, (maybe you americans are more used to this) it's the most blatent form of misrepresnetation I've seen in a long time. Why? Because what a majority of britons voted for isn't even practically possible..

Eldorion wrote:

Other than that, does the EU have a democratic problem? Yes. I already pointed this out in part. The executive/legislative divide, for instance. But you can't make the same demands of a union of nation states as of a nation state, that is just blatantly unfair. It is not a nation state. It consists of nation states. You have to admit that at least part fo your criticism comes down to PR. (Or, if you will, the blatant misrepresentation mentioned above.)

No shit it has to do with PR. The EU is more than just a union of nation states. It has its own Parliament and its own citizenship. It has to pay attention to the will(s) of its constituents or it isn't democratic. And since the member states are themselves democracies, an EU that is perceived as undemocratic was inevitably going to have to face the music eventually. I hope this prompts meaningful reform (not the "deal" Cameron negotiated) moving forward for the EU.

Well, PR is perception. So long as we agree that a large part of the issues people have with the EU is down to just that.

And of course it's not just a collection of nation states. Or rather, it is that, and more. This is a question of degrees, not either or. The EU is the one proper example of a proper supranational body, neither international, nor national, in the world. But that is a discussion for itself, and maybe not for right this evening.

Lets just say I, as someone with a basis in law, prefer to talk about realities and perception as seperate issues. I do realize they are inevitably interconnected however.

Bluebottle wrote:No, but it's one with dramatic and damaging results. And, hey, (maybe you americans are more used to this) it's the most blatent form of misrepresnetation I've seen in a long time. Why? Because what a majority of britons voted for isn't even practically possible..

I've been continuing to think about this throughout the day and I'm sympathetic to the suggestion that a referendum of this magnitude should have required a supermajority to go into effect. That would have left the door open for blowback with the 52% result not being good enough, but I thought even before the Scottish referendum that 50% +1 was a curiously low threshold for a major constitutional change.

But yeah, I'm used to election in which a lot of candidates run on economically illiterate platforms like "we must make the government balance its checkbook the same as a family". It's annoying, and it risks leading to dangerous policies, but you still have to figure out how to govern for everyone (including the poorly informed) if you want to win elections.

Well, PR is perception. So long as we agree that a large part of the issues people have with the EU is down to just that.

And of course it's not just a collection of nation states. Or rather, it is that, and more. This is a question of degrees, not either or. The EU is the one proper example of a proper supranational body, neither international, nor national, in the world. But that is a discussion for itself, and maybe not for right this evening.

Lets just say I, as someone with a basis in law, prefer to talk about realities and perception as seperate issues. I do realize they are inevitably interconnected however.

I suppose it's no surprise that I, coming from a political science background, am just as interested in how people perceive things as what they really are. But I think I can understand your perspective and why it's different.

I'm sorry. It's a bad habit of mine. I somehow just prefer others to concede to my point before I concede to theirs. Obviously you have one too.

Cheers, Blue.

the Sans Culottes have won, the heads are rolling, Robespierre IDS is waiting to meet terror on the one legged single mothers, all we now is Farage and Boris to get out their knitting and the nightmare is complete.

Bluebottle wrote:

halfwise wrote:(which leads me to ask Blue again: should Norway join the EU?)

Norway is in the unenviable position where we can afford to pay to sit on the fence. It's expensive, (not something I'd advise for a country without a substantial oil reserve (or equivalent) and cash surplus) undemocratic, and on the whole a bad idea. (We basically pay our way out of an internal political issue.) But we like the idea of ourselves as different, I guess.

I'm seriously interested in this too Blue {{{and by they way I notice that like a good attorney you never quite answered the question }}}

Two questions to add: Why undemocratic?
And that oil reserve isn't worth quite what it was a few years ago, is it? Is that starting to be a point of concern yet?
(...OK I guess that's 3 questions.... Plus Halfy's which is still only half-answered... So I guess that's 3 1/2 ...)

Sadly Blue we minions of Great Briton have been bereft of what is true & what isnt, Thats been the backbone of this country Why do you think "Yes Prime Minister" etc is SO popular & loved Also ashamedly not all of us have a good "ducking & diving" brain like your good self We could have done with you as a news hound ! Thems that want to "Rule Britannia" picked up on & ran with the few things that people here are pissed off about.....immigrants etc, This is the lull before the storm.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

its up to 316,000 and counting

nope...

321,000 and counting

But we like the idea of ourselves as different, I guess.

Well, if the Norwegians just like feeling different, why be so down on the Brits for wanting to feel different?  From the way the Brits on here are reacting I can see that there was probably a lot of ugly xenophobia involved, but can an even more racially homogenous Norway claim they are not being xenophobic by staying out of the EU?

Though truthfully in the case of Norway I can see it as not wanting to mess with a good thing rather than just not wanting to mix.  The rest of Europe was not in such a good place economically when the EU was formed.

Mrs Figg wrote:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

its up to 316,000 and counting

nope...

321,000 and counting

It seems to me that a lot of apathetic non-voters suddenly got religion....

Eldorion wrote:

malickfan wrote:Sounds about right, a huge amount of people had never voted before...

Have fun building that wall in Mexico

Hopefully this helps serve as a reminder to Democrats in the US not to get complacent and stay home on election day.

Trump's not gonna win though. If nothing else, electoral college math will beat him.

I'm sure you are well aware of just how many political science types have lived on a steady diet of crow since Trump popped on the scene.

I'm afraid I'm approaching the apathetic "oh just let it happen" stage. He'll be something different, and we'll never be bored with him in the White House. Embarrassed, yes...but never bored.

Mrs Figg wrote:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

its up to 316,000 and counting

nope...

321,000 and counting

Signed, it will have no legal effect, but hopefully prove a further point to Parliament just how split the country is.

Unbridled populism as a political reality has just popped into my head. Unbridled populism lead to Greek Governments giving everyone what they wanted, and now... Unbridled populism (with it's underscoring of racism) will now lead Brittain... Where... Isolationist navel gazing?... Trump as President... The times are a'changing.. I fear a time of chaos and multiplying wars may be drawing toward us... Hope I'm wrong...

halfwise wrote:I'm sure you are well aware of just how many political science types have lived on a steady diet of crow since Trump popped on the scene.

I'm afraid I'm approaching the apathetic "oh just let it happen" stage.  He'll be something different, and we'll never be bored with him in the White House.  Embarrassed, yes...but never bored.

General election is a whole different ballgame than the primary. The institutional weakness of the GOP becomes a hindrance for Trump now (especially in terms of fundraising) rather than making it easier for him. Plus, look at the states Trump is starting to focus on. Deep red states like Arizona and Utah should not even be in play but Trump's unfavorables (especially among Hispanics) put them at risk. This is a topic for another thread, though.

The populist wave that Orwell is talking about though, it doesn't show up well in polling. Don't count it out. It's been repressed for a long time and it's looking for an outlet, however unlikely, whether Brexit or Trump. And it's just not described by the old two-party formulas.

halfwise wrote:

But we like the idea of ourselves as different, I guess.

Well, if the Norwegians just like feeling different, why be so down on the Brits for wanting to feel different?  From the way the Brits on here are reacting I can see that there was probably a lot of ugly xenophobia involved, but can an even more racially homogenous Norway claim they are not being xenophobic by staying out of the EU?

Though truthfully in the case of Norway I can see it as not wanting to mess with a good thing rather than just not wanting to mix.  The rest of Europe was not in such a good place economically when the EU was formed.

This seem to be labouring under some assumptions. (1) No, Norway's position outside the EU is not unproblematic, and I never said that one just like feeiling different was a legitimate concern. A lot of criticism can and have been levelled at the norwegian position, but (2) a small country of 5 million people not formally joining the Union, while taking more than its fair share of the financial burden and even so acceeding to all the important legislative acts, is not the same as the Union's second most populus country leaving wth every intention of shirking any pan-european responsiilities. There is actually such a thing as a civic responsibility in the idea of the EU. (3) The reasons for Norway not joining and the UK leaving are not the same. Xenophobia plays no part in the norwegian decision, as we as part of the single market are signed up to the free movement of persons in the Union in any case. Now go look at the issues that swayed the British referendum. (4) Seeing as the UK leaving are changing few of the things the voters were looking for while potentially being immemsly hurtful to the concept of common european values, there are so few legitimate reasons to argue the UK exit from the Union is in any way an idea that should be respected.

In all honesty there are few similarities to the two situation. The norwegian position is not really tenable, even for Norway, and the UK, as the second most populous nation in the Union, has a completely different civic responsibility han a small nation at the border of Europe only formally standing on the outside.

Eldorion wrote:

halfwise wrote:I'm sure you are well aware of just how many political science types have lived on a steady diet of crow since Trump popped on the scene.

I'm afraid I'm approaching the apathetic "oh just let it happen" stage.  He'll be something different, and we'll never be bored with him in the White House.  Embarrassed, yes...but never bored.

General election is a whole different ballgame than the primary. The institutional weakness of the GOP becomes a hindrance for Trump now (especially in terms of fundraising) rather than making it easier for him. Plus, look at the states Trump is starting to focus on. Deep red states like Arizona and Utah should not even be in play but Trump's unfavorables (especially among Hispanics) put them at risk. This is a topic for another thread, though.

And Trump isn't even moving to the middle.

I think both of Obama's election victories show that a majority of Americans can and will vote for the more liberal option when given the choice in a general election. That majority cannot be relied upon in the same way in smaller congres races, where the person involved might not engender the same support as Obama did as a person, and the smaller elections never feels as necessary an issue as a general election does to push people to actually go out and vote.

The majority that secured Obama's election and reelection, against the same fervent feelings from the right, will secure a Clinton win. Especially over Trump, who himself will be a major selling point in raising votes for Clinton. (Trump is just the tea party movement coming to fruition in any case. (Populism eating the repblican party rom the inside.))