UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

{{{ On a slight tangent today provides one of those good examples of how the SUN newspaper, a Murdoch newspaper and heavily right leaning therefore, seeks to appeal to its Scottish audience.

This is todays Sun front page, in England-



As you can see huge smiling Boris and unequivical backing for his deal.

This is the same paper, same day, only Scottish front page-



As you can see its mainly given over to a typical tabloid story about a former footballer, making the Scottish front page because despite being english and a legend of the english national team he once played for Glasgow Rangers! Thats how keen the Scottish staff were to keep Boris off the main headline.
And where we do have Boris and his deal, hidden away there at the top, the story is actually not about the deal but about the DUP rebuke of the deal. Its a negative spin on Boris's deal complete with unflattering photo choice.

And there you have the duplicitious Sun newspaper, presenting one face to its English readership and another to its Scottish audience whilst somehow pretending it doesn't do this. }}

Based on those statistics isn't it fairly certain Parliament will accept the deal?

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ Results of a snap poll from YOUGOV on Boris's deal. }}

Saturday is D Day.

Long was this doom foretold

Long was this doom foretold- Figg

{{ Not to blow Forumshire's own trumpet or anything but anyone following Brexit on here has had a much more accurate idea of what has been going on than if they had followed the actual news.

I have been simply amazed by the seeming lack of knowledge and understanding of what has been going on exhibited by the so-called experts.

The words and phrases most common in association with Boris actions since he became PM are things like: unpredictable, unforeseeable, chaotic, no plan. When he got a deal it was called a miracle, out of the blue, against all odds, surprising and that no one could have predicted it.

And its still going on, I was just watching tonight's Newsnight from the BBC and their political analyst actually just said 'I was on Eurostar when I heard that Boris had betrayed the DUP and I thought, 'what is he doing?'

What? How can they not have foreseen that? Forumshire did. Weeks ago.

In fact if you go back and see what the prediction was for where we are now it was exactly where we are and what Boris's predicted Plan A was-

Boris would return at the last minute with a deal that basically May's with some tweaking- check.

Boris would betray the DUP and ERG and he'd do it as late in the day as possible (3 days before the vote it turned out)- check

That Boris never had any intention of a no deal as his 1st option, that he was always aiming for a deal- check

That all the proroguing, the threats of no deal were all bluffs solely to cause chaos and desperation at home, so that when he got the deal people would be so desperate for something it'd pass despite being Mays deal under the covers- even today you can find no end of MP's saying they will vote for it only because we have to get on and get over this, so another check.

That all the threats of no deal and stuff would drive the opposition parties into ever more extreme anti-brexit positions leaving Boris come an election looking like the only one getting on with the actual job of delivering a deal and leaving Corbyn looking utterly ineffective paving way for a Tory majority (Corbyn is currently polling at his lowest ever and Labour are polling at levels not seen since Michael Foot in the 70's)- check.

In fact Boris Plan A as laid out in Forumshire has been note for note the tune the Boris has actually played- the BBC should hire us to be their political analysts cause the ones they've got suck! }}}

"Us"? I'm happy to take my portion of the credit for plan A, but I'll have to re-read it first to figure out how much sweat and blood I put into it. I must have labored mightily for my contribution. Yep.

In fact Boris Plan A as laid out in Forumshire has been note for note the tune the Boris has actually played-

Boris:
"Well I've really fucked up now. How to get out of this without tar and feathers?"
[checks Forumshire]
"Hmmm.... Plan A! It just might work! "

great result today, and great Peoples March in London.

Johnson is now on a path to the courts, again. As he has said he will defy the law, again.

What was most interesting to me was the fact that Johnsons deal was described as a Trojan Horse to no deal. They were banking on crashing out on 31st October due to lack of time. They have now been foiled.
oh I  would have paid good money to listen in on the ERG meeting tonight.

I thought there were 2 amendments today, one on a referendum? maybe they delayed that too.

Starmer ripped Barclay a new one, but I do wish he would stop 'giving way' every 5 seconds. its annoying.

{{ I don't see this makes  the slightest bit of difference save to kick it down the line yet again with nothing changing.

Assuming remainers get all they want here the best they can hope for is to delay again, get the EU to extend to Jan 2020 and then what?
There will be a general election inbetween, the Tories will win it and probably well given how toxic Corbyn is, and then next January we will be back in this ridiculous situation of Parliament trying to delay it again with no plan to replace it or hope of getting any plan of their own passed.


As to Boris breaking the law- well tonight he has complied, with the letter of it anyway if not the spirit. He has written a letter to the EU asking for an extension, but didn't sign it making it clear its not from him but Parliament. And then he has sent a 2nd letter saying he doesn't want a delay.

And there is no guarantee the EU will grant a delay, in fact Macron has already made noises saying he doesn't see the point of one. And if they don't grant it then Parliament will have to choose- no deal, Boris's deal, or stay in.

So what happens next in no small part depends upon what the EU do.
By most accounts had Boris got his vote today he would have won it, and good chance it will come back on Monday for another vote in which case it might be passed yet. Or even that on Monday Boris will call an election and see if Corbyn refuses it again- as Corbyn's excuse not to, keeping no deal off the table is achieved, so he has no excuses left now.

But all that can happen now is yet another delay and then we end up back in the exact same situation again after an election- for another 3 years? 5 years? 10? It can't just go on and on, Parliament has to decide one way or another and soon. Apart from anything else this is costing the country a small fortune just to stay still. }}

The delay is important and actually symbolically crucial because it means that Johnson's 'do or die in a ditch' pledge will have failed. In the eyes of the Brexit party, the ERG, and the leave fanatics it makes Johnson look like a loser, and he was supposed to be their saviour. He has banked his whole career on leaving on the 31st October. If he fails it might be enough to get rid.
He will now be taken to court for contempt of Parliament and contempt of the law for sending those 2 letters.
Also the EU are taking their time but have always said an extension will be passed, they may however, insist on a reason, which could be a second referendum or an election. I do think they will insist on a good reason unless it is Parliament itself which asks for an extension, in which case the EU would not refuse a sovereign parliament. Even Macron would not refuse a British parliament even if he might refuse Johnson.
It looks like Bercow may refuse to allow a meaningful vote on Monday as it undermines the vote on Saturday. I  hope we get our money's worth of Bercow before he leaves us.

The delay is important and actually symbolically crucial because it means that Johnson's 'do or die in a ditch' pledge will have failed. In the eyes of the Brexit party, the ERG, and the leave fanatics it makes Johnson look like a loser, and he was supposed to be their saviour. He has banked his whole career on leaving on the 31st October. If he fails it might be enough to get rid.- Figg


{{ I dont think that will work- I think  his suporters will see him trying to do or die and being thwarted by Parliament, if polling is any indication he is becoing more not less popular and has even gained ground among those who voted remain.
And even if it works and no more Boris- weve gone from mild Brexit with May to hard Brexit with Boris, if its Mogg or the ERG in charge after Boris, or Scary Patel, they will make this Brexit look like the easy soft one.

And if there is an election can you honestly see Corbyn winning it? (personally I actually hope he doesnt as his policies are in my view economically disatrous).
And if miraculously Labour do win what then? Corbyn's plan for a deal? It has even less chance than Boris's of passing.
He could hold a 2nd referendum, but there are indications the vote would be just as close again, and quite possibly would return the same leave result- what would Corbyn do with that if it happened? Ignore it again?

'It looks like Bercow may refuse to allow a meaningful vote on Monday as it undermines the vote on Saturday.'

If he does then Boris will call for an election- and Corbyn is all out of excuses not to have one. And he will lose and lose badly and the tories will probably get a majority. And if the tories are handed a majority thats it over, he can pass what sort of Brexit he likes pretty much.

For so long as Labour continue as they are under Corbyn and McDonald the Brexit side and the Tories win the long game. And if they do win the long game, then all of this, the millions of tax payer money being spent every single day thwarting it will have been money wasted }}}

I guess it does look like Johnson has the whip-hand but dont underestimate his enemies, he made a fatal error in expelling Hammond and co. There are some very clever people who have everything to gain by destroying the ERG. The moderates want their party back, the sort of Conservatives who would have been disgusted when Ken Clarke and Churchill's grandson were expelled. Obviously they are no friends of ordinary people, and previously voted for austerity, they are still Tories, but they are now out to get Johnson, and that's good for remainers.
Corbyn would lose an election by a mile no matter what. He has to hold off an election or he is toast. If they got a new leader they might just swing it. Its a tragedy we have Corbyn at this moment in time.

{{ Agreed on Corbyn, the wrong man at the wrong time.
Labour are now pushing for a 2nd referendum rather than a general election- I strongly suspect even they must know they are toast at an election.

Given Bercow's track record, and he does like being in the spotlight too, he will almost certainly block a vote on Monday too.
I think if he wants to stop the deal he has to block the vote as the government now seem pretty confident they have the numbers-

'Mr Raab told the BBC's Andrew Marr show that "notwithstanding the parliamentary shenanigans, we appear to have now the numbers to get this through".'

And as things still stand its still 11 days and we're out one way or the other- until either the EU extend the deadline again (and it spossible they might not, I could see Macron vetoing it), parliament passes Boris deal, or we exit without one. There isn't time for any other option. }}

I haven't had much time on internet recently because of harvest, still at least 2 weeks left, but I have been following this thread. It makes so much more sense than all the headlines! Thanks all!

cheers Dave

I am going to miss Bercow socking it to the government 

{{ Good luck with the harvest Dave, I'd wear good thick boots on the lower fields, they may have been a tad over fertilised this year


In Brexit news, the EU have delayed making a decision on extending until Westminister strops playing silly buggers- so could be quite a wait!

Boris is bringing the Withdrawal Bill to the vote for the next three days, as if he can get is passed thats the first stage on actually getting a vote on his deal through.
Whats interesting here is that though we know the withdrawal deal is largely the same as Mays she never got this far so we never actually got to see everything that was in it- this is the first time we will, and there are some bits come out already that explains some things- mainly why the DUP are so against it.

Seems part of what Boris has agreed is not only will goods need checked going from UK to NI but NI would have to fill in export forms etc sending stuff to the UK. In short though it wont be an offical border, it will act exactly as if it were.

Also concerns being raised about workers rights and standards, this is an odd one in many respects, firstly the UK actually has workers right that are above and beyond the normal within the EU- we have far longer maternity and paternity leave than stipulated, more holidays, sick days and stuff than the legal EU minimum, and we have a minimum wage which the EU does not.
Now I understand fears Tories will erode those over time if they are in power, but thats if they are in power and only if people vote for them. But there has been nothing to stop Tories eroding those standards so far and reducing them to the legal EU minimum, they have never done this so I am not sure why they would start now. And if pepoe dont want those rights changed, dont vote Tory.
But if we are to have Brexit then the UK Parliament will be the ultimate decider of such standards, thats kind of the point of leaving, so I find the argument 'we cant vote for it as in the future a potential government might erode workers rights as there is noone to stop them' an odd argument as having no one 'above' the Uk government telling it what to do is the point of Brexit. If you have Brexit then by default the UK Parliament is soveriegn.

For me these are part of stalling techniques, mainly by Labour as they are desperate at all costs to avoid an election.
If you look at Corbyn's track record on an election, he continually and consitistently demanded an election the entire period he knew there was not going to be one, he did it week after week at PMQ's.

Then when Parliament first passed legislation to force Boris's hand Boris said fine, lets just have the election then and let the people decide.

At which point Labour suddenly said, um no thanks, we dont want an election afterall, um, because you cant be trusted to not sneakily do No Deal while we're having one. Yes that's the reason.

So Boris went and got a deal and said right vote on the deal then if you wont have an election.

And Corbyn said, um no don't think we can do that as you'll probably win it and we're even more screwed than now, so how about we don't have on and stick to accusing you of trying to bounce a no deal, somehow.

So Parliament legislated some more ensuring that no deal could not happen.

Now Boris says we can have that election now, seeing as No Deal is off the table like you wanted.

To which Corbyn replied, um, yeah, you got a deal, and we've taken no deal off the table now, but im, still no thanks. I know how about we have another referndum on your deal and on remaining instead? But definently no election.

But if you look at what Labour want to achieve- they want closer ties with the EU after we leave, they want to remain in the custom union after we leave and they want to protect workers and EU citizens rights after we leave.
The best wat to achieve all these things is to go to the people standing on that manifesto, get elected then they are the government and can negoitate the exact deal they wish.
Everything they want to achieve can only be achieved if they are in power not in opposition. In opposition all they can do is frustrate and stall the government, they cant actually do anything themesleves or get what they want.

The only way to do that is through becoming the government- yet this one way they have to achieve what they want, and which Boris has been offering them on a platter - have a general election - they refuse to take up. Why?
Because they don't have a snowballs chance in hell of winning it under Corbyn and they know it. That's why.
Corbyn is running scared of the judgement of the electorate, losing another election is not just another loss for Corbyn, it would be the end of Corbyn's leadership and would result in a massive infight between the left leaning Momentum wing and the moderate left over Blairite wing of the party which has been in exile under Corbyn for control of the party direction.

An election would be an utter disaster for Labour, and that is why Corbyn is running shit scared of holding one, despite being in power being the only way they can achieve their aims.


edit add- the Withdrawal BIll-  

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/841006/EU__Withdrawal_Agreement__Bill.pdf
  }}

There seem to be a couple of major issues today,
One of the most worrying is that the government want to ram home scrutiny of the bill in 3 days, when it should take weeks if not months, and there will be a vote on this today. If Johnson wins they can shaft parliament good and proper with lots of nasty small print.

The EU is sick to the back teeth and is letting the UK know that they wont decide on an extension, until parliament decides.

At the moment I am swinging between anger, resignation, hope and having those hopes dashed at every twist and turn. One minute it looks like Johnson is toast, then he wriggles out of danger, then parliament comes up with a jolly wheeze and the game is on again. On and on and on again...Its fucking NUTS!

{{ Boris is sayng if Parliament doesnt vote to approve the 3 day schedule then he will pull the entire bill and call for an election.
Hard to see if that happens how Labour refuse one, and if they do its going to look an awful lot like what it is- utter cowardice and fear of the electorate. }}

{{ Mixed day for Boris- the first vote passed with a healthy majority for the government of 30 votes, to accept the deal basically- but he lost the vote on passing it in three days, that came in with a majority of 14 saying no to that.
Now it goes back to the EU to see what, if any, extension they grant, and Boris will I suspect suspend everything else unless there is an election. }}

{{ Mogg just announced thenext 2 days will be given over to debating the Queens speech and friday the House won't sit. So as I suspected they are going to try to do nothing for the rest of the week.
If I had to guess a gameplan going ahead for Boris it would be that he will refuse to allow debate on the withdrawal deal before an election. The government control the buisiness of the House, if they don't table it for debate, no debate.
And I wouldnt put it pased Boris to stick to that, no debate without an election, right up till Jan 2020 if need be- afterall if there is no election then he stays the government.}}

wowzer! you should have seen Johnson's face. But its pretty good news. Brexit on pause, Johnson humiliated, extension in the offing. pretty positive stuff considering. At least there is now time for MPs to read and digest the extent of the sell-out deal.

{{{ If the EU grant the extension Boris is pushing for an election, and he might well get it this time depsite Labour wishing otherwise.

'the Liberal Democrats would be likely to back an election if a three-month extension was agreed.
And BBC political correspondent Nick Eardley said SNP sources said they would also agree in this scenario.'

as to Labour, they are still split on what to do unsurprisingly, Corbyn would rather have another referendum before an election, anything to delay the election, but as a referendum is unlikely to get the votes in the House others in his party aren't so keen, including Shadow Cabinet ministers-

'Shadow justice secretary Richard Burgon told BBC Radio 4's Today programme Labour would agree to a general election if the EU granted an extension because it meant a no-deal Brexit would certainly be "off the table".
Mr Burgon said holding a referendum first - favoured by some of his Labour colleagues - was "fantasy politics".

And worth remembering that while Boris was defeated on the timetable the Bill itself passed the 2nd reading stage and is sitting there on hold awaiting the final vote. If Boris wins an election with a majority of any sort he can hold that vote and pass it on day 1. }}

I read that most of the Labour MPs who voted for the deal only did so because they want to ammend the deal, and if this didn't happen they would go back to voting it down.

{{ Not sure if thats true for all of them Figg, there were 19 Labour MP's voted with the government I think on passing the bill- but 5 of them also voted to approve the 3 day schedule. Those 5 at least seem as Brexit keen as any Tory.
Not that it matters, it pased the 2nd reading already and if there is ageneral election, no matter how it goes the numbers will be different, probably in Tory favour, and it only needs to pass 1 more vote to be done. }}