UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

{{ That didnt take long, the remainers pact to not stand against each other announced this morning is starting to fall apart already! }}

'A Liberal Democrat candidate who was told to step aside as part of a "Remain alliance" will now run as an independent...Mr Powell tells BBC Radio 4's World at One he was first informed about standing aside three weeks ago.
"We had an NEC [national executive committee] meeting last night and basically were told, 'that’s it, you’re not standing'," he says.
"I know there are an awful lot of members in the Welsh Liberal Democrats who are extremely unhappy with the way these negotiations have been dealt with."

Ian Austin is to become the Tories trade envoy to ISRAEL ! Now it all makes sense.

{{ Boris says he wont let a 2nd independence referndum happen ever, saying he sees 'no reason it should ever happen'. That includes Boris says if the Scottish people elect the SNP in Scotland at this general election, and if they win the Scottish elections on a mandate of holding one.

I find this an odd way to defend the Union- telling Scots unless you vote for a Westminister party we will just ignore your vote altogether forever. }}

{{ Note how they have positioned the line of folk to the right of the main crowd so that from the tv perspective it looks like the crowd is way larger and goes off into the distance. }}

{{ The Lib-dems having been trying to brand themselves for the election- first they had ministers in tv studios claiming it was unfair they werent in the debates as they are the 3rd biggest party and the biggest remain party.

Problem here is that they are neither!

The SNP are the third biggest party in Westminister, and therefore, as they are also a remain party, they are also the largest remain party.

So now the Lib-dems are saying they are the 'strongest party of remain' whatever that means. }}

ITV  has been caught editing Starmer's speech to make it look like he couldn't answer a question. its dirty tricks time.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/05/tories-unrepentant-about-doctored-video-of-keir-starmer-tv-appearance

{{ Yeah going to be nasty this campaign by looks of it.
Though not sure why the Tories felt the need to doctor it, just let Labour talk about their Brexit plan its a joke anyway. More you hear less sense it makes and the less likely it would be to actually do.}}

What a mess! Even with all your help I'm struggling to make any sense of it all.
So as things stand now, what's the best (or least worst) outcome you could reasonably hope for, in your opinions?
Also, I have to ask.... is anybody still pushing a special trade deal with the United States as an advantage of Brexit?

Yeah I haven't been able to follow this for about the last week.

But I don't completely understand trade deals either. why can't a country come up with one policy that applies to all trading partners? Seems like the obvious way to go when you're already throwing everything out.

{{ As things stand now mess is about right Dave!

Both Tories and Labour have launched their campaigns pretty disastrously, both being hit with scandals and/or resignations.

The Tories for example had one of their Wesh MP's forced out for his part in seemingly deliberetly collapsing a rape trial by submitting evidence including comment on the womens sexual history, whch the judge had already ruled was irrelevant and not to be mentioned.
It prompted the judge to respond with -

""Why did you say that? Are you completely stupid? You have managed singlehanded, and I have no doubt it was deliberate on your part, to sabotage this trial. I shall be writing personal letters to people who are politically close to you and I hope they take appropriate action. Get out of my court".

The trial was eventually retried and the guy found guilty.

Meanwhile on Labours campaign launch we had four former Labour MP's, including one going back to Harold Wilson in the 60's coming out to urge Labour supporters to vote for Boris in order to stop Corbyn. And two of them going so far as to mount a pr campaign.



Labour and the Tories have also been hit with a spate of resignations too.

So despite both knowing it was coming for a long time, and the Tories in particular being on a campaign footing for months, they both managed to stumble out the gate with disasters and scandals.

As to where it goes, thats getting trickier by the day.
Both parties are pledging massive spending, even the Tories are talking borrowing to spend.
So far between them we've had (take a deep breath) new houses for council rent, new houses for first time buyers, new schools and hospitals and all the old ones refurbished, more nurses, more doctors, more gps, more police, more maternity leave, paid leave for women in the menopuase, new railways, old railways refurbished, nationalising railways, nationalising water, nationalising energy, nationalising the post office, new roads, all the old roads redone, faster internet everywhere, more childcare, more childcare places, increases in social benefits, cuts in taxes for everyone, more social care, more money for local councils, more money for the regions, more mayors, and I'm pretty sure the moon, on a ruddy stick! (and I'm sure I've mised a few, its hard to keep track )

As its all nonsense its hard to tell whose nonsense is being swallowed and who by.

Latest polling looks bit like this-







As you can see so far there isn't a poll that shows Labour ahead, or even close to being ahead. As it stands Boris is still on course for his victory lap.

Personally I am in two minds about what I want to happen.
Long term I want to see a 2nd indie vote and I will therefore be voting SNP.
But at Westminister, which will be decided in England, I think Corbyn is a political disaster and letting Unite or Momemtum near the levers of power no saner than it was to let the Tea Party near Americas. The thought of Corbyn as PM is not one filling me with confidence but foreboding.
Unfortunately Boris makes me feel the same way, but more for his Tory beliefs not because I thinks he is idealogically inclined to destroy the economy.
But for the sole reason that Boris will go after the devolved parliaments once Brexit is done and that Labour offer the most likely route to a 2nd indie referendum, I have to hope Corbyn wins. And then Scotland gets the hell out before Corbyn can damage things too much.
But I dont see how he will win at this point, or the evidence so far that he can.

As to the trade deal its a hot button issue in the election so far. Expect it to come up in the leaders debate too.
Basically the remain parties- Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens are pushing the same line- Boris deal with Trump is a backdoor to lower food and health standards and more the privitisation of the NHS and the involvment of US pharmicutal companies.
Boris denies this and so does Trump, but the counter to that is, well they would say that as they are both well known lying bastards! So its a tricky one for Boris to counter and will be a big feature of how many vote- never underestimate how much value the people put on the the NHS and in protecting it. Even Thatcher knew that.
So Boris will have to try to find a counter to it, and 'I give my word' is probably not going to cut it given whats he's done to get this far.

Dunno if any of that helps or just muddies the waters Dave. }}

why can't a country come up with one policy that applies to all trading partners?- Halfy

{{Just because everyones got different stuff, and you might even have the squeeze on someone over something meaning you can get a particularly good trade deal with that country, but obviously not with say their neighbour who you dont have the goods on!
Or only one country has things in particular you need, or you only have a particualr thing they need to trade you for, so one fits all just wouldnt work.

This is also why Corbyn's Brexit deal is not actually brexit- it keeps the UK in the common market- and its rules are if you're in it you can't make your own trade deals, the EU makes them as a bloc.
One of the main reasons leavers want to leave is in order to do our own trade deals, which is only possible outside the common market. }}

Sounds to me like the politics is worse than the Brexit which started the whole mess unravelling.

But if you start from scratch, which I assume is what "no deal" means, I don't see that it's so bad.  Sure, you can start forging new trade deals, but not having one right off the bad hardly seems in any way ruinous to me so long as you have a sensible universal policy to start with.

Personally I want Labour to win a massive landslide due to 18 year olds voting to end the Tory nightmare. The only hope for a second Indyref is Corbyn because if Johnson wins there is less than zero chance. and Sturgeon needs one before 31st January because the Spanish would veto Scotland rejoining as an independent country. So the indyref needs to happen now or never.
The Labour party is going to put an end to the disgusting way the sick and poor have been treated, and some of their more extreme policies have already been watered down, such as the private school debacle, they are now going to merely tax them, not abolish them.
I have a horrible feeling however, that Johnson will win even if he doesn't have a majority. in which case he might do a deal with any new Brexit party MPs.  which means RIP UK.

Thanks for trying to sort it all out for me Petty!

Petty wrote:Dunno if any of that helps or just muddies the waters Dave.

Hey there's only so much you can do with the material. I doubt if the waters could be any muddier, but at least it helps me figure out which direction they're flowing... and what might be around the next bend for you folks... Best of luck!

{{ Good day for the tories, bad day for labour.
The Brexit party has announced it will not contest a single Tory won seat from last election, but will instead only stand against remain candidates in Labour/lib dem areas.
However its not all good news for Boris on that front- to get a majority he not only needs to win all the seats they currently hold but add another nine- it will be interesting to see if the Brexit party field against Labour seats where the most likely contender are the tories No word on that yet, but I suspect they won't.
And annoying as it says to say this its another bit of poliitcs well played by Boris- Farage has been pushing for an official pact for months and Boris has outright dismissed and even insulted him every time he has asked- now Farage has given Boris exactly what he wanted at zero political damage to the tories and without a single concession to the Brexit party. }}

{{ One of the many odd things about this pretty odd election so far is that we have yet to see a manifesto from any of the main parties.
At the moment what they are actually promising, the spendng costs, policies, everything basically is solely being based off what has been said on the stump and what has been briefed to the press. But none of that is official or will necessarily turn up in the final manifesto.
So at this point the public have no real idea what either main party is promising to deliver.
It looks like we might get Labours manifesto some time next week, with some sort of policy meeting scheduled for the end of this week and weekend.
The Tories however are so far keeping quiet on when theirs might appear. }}

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{{{ Labour in Scotland goes from disaster to disaster as Corbyn attempts to build a new fence to sit on on top of the old one.

Heres the situtation to date.

Scottish Labour voted at their conference to block any 2nd independence referendum no matter what and to oppose it through backing Westminister in refusing to grant one.

Then the Labour Deputy came along and said that Labour were not fundementally opposed to a 2nd referendum after all.

So Scottish Labour hit back saying yes they bloody were, and if there was a change of policy it wasnt official and it wasnt coming from Corbyn.

So Scottish Labour have gone into his election firm in their stance, no concession to a 2nd independence referendum.

Enter Corbyn stage right on a visist to Scotland, where reading the mood is not in his favour here on his no to a referendum stance, but fearing the backlash in England to any signs of a pact with the SNP or of letting Boris paint the picture a vote for labour is vote for 2 more referendums next year, he says whilst they are not oposed to a 2nd referendum he would be ruling one out in the first term (5 years) of a Labour government (which assumes he'd get a 2nd term).

Problem here is Sturgeon has already laid out her lines to Corbyn on getting her support if its a hung Palriament, where the Scottish seats could decide who the government is, and her main line is Labour have to support the principle of a 2nd referendum in their first term.

So Corbyn, finding his fence tricky to balance on, has now rowed back his not within the first five years statement to not in the 'early years.'

This switching back and forth has earned him more or less outright derision in the Scottish media.
And Scottish Labour's election positon on independence? - its been completely undermined and called an utter shambless. }}

the omnishambles continues.

{{ Labour continues its list of stupid lefty things!

Todays pie in the sky announcement?

'Labour has promised to give every home and business in the UK free full-fibre broadband by 2030, if it wins the general election.'

Yup out of nowhere theyve bunged BT on their nationalise it list, and say that a tax raised on tech giants based on what they sell in the UK AND worldwide will somehow pay for this, though how we can tax on what they earn elsewhere is another matter.

Just to be clear what they are saying here- Labour will part nationalise BT in order to give away high speed broadbnd acces for free.

Few questions here- why would tech giants stay in the UK to be taxed to pay for it if they cant sell a service here? After all if the government is giving everyone broadband for free what have private companies got to sell? Given that how do you cover the enormous cost of it?
What about all the other internet service providers who currently exist including many UK based companies whose market would vanish overenight? What about all those jobs?
What about choice? What if you dont want BT broadband - I know I dont!

Labour say it will "literally eliminate bills for millions of people across the UK". But it wont, it will give us a single service provider we have no choice about regardless of what we think of quality of service, and we will have to pay for it through taxation for decades and decades to comes as there is not a hope in hell Labour can raise the 20-40 billion required for this madcap scheme through taxing companies whose market the government is undermining or removing.

It is this sort of student union, childish, immature far left momentum/unite policy pish that will scupper any hope Labour have of an election victory. It's this sort of stupid shite that's handing victory to Boris on a plate.  

In further fence sitting news as only Corbyn can immigration has been discussed, the Tories are talking an Australian based points sytem with the aim of lowering overall immigration, the lib dems want more immigration, and Labour?

'Jeremy Corbyn has refused to say if he wants the number of immigrants coming to the UK to rise or fall.'

But...'Mr Corbyn hinted that Labour would make it easier for families to bring relatives to live in the UK from overseas and for foreign workers to come to the UK.'

So up or down Corbyn? And did Labour not notice the brexit vote and how strongly it was based on opposition to uncontrolled immigration?
How is telling hard pressed working class commmunities, already discombobulated by changing demographics all around them within a single lifetime, that you want to make it easier for more immigrants to come in going to persuade them to vote Labour? This is tone deaf. }}
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