UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

{{ Great song.  

Ive been holding off commenting on Brexit as all thats been going on is diplomatic tapdancing, but things may be coming to a head.

Thing to note here is the 'sources' for this information are coming from within government, and sometimes no10. But they are not official.

'A No 10 source says a Brexit deal is "essentially impossible" after a call between the PM and Angela Merkel.
Boris Johnson spoke to the German chancellor earlier about the proposals he put forward to the EU - but the source said she made clear a deal based on them was "overwhelmingly unlikely".
Ms Merkel also said a deal would never be possible unless Northern Ireland stayed in a customs union, according to the source.
They said it was a "clarifying moment".- BBC

I'll say its a clarifiyng moment!
If true and the EU's position all along has really been that NI must stay in the cutoms union, then a Brexit deal was never possible- there was never under any configuration of the House going to be a majority for a deal that split the UK apart like that.

There are also consequences of doing so in NI. If it remains in the custom union then its further strengthens Republican calls for a unified Ireland, and that such a thing might be merely a matter of time. But it may also provoke the protestant, Unionist side into taking up arms, lets not foget that whilst the IRA were the more famous the other side had the UDA, the Ulster Defence Alliance, a loyalist parliamtary. NI is still a volitile place and any dramatic swing in allegiances or politics in a short, near instant time space could set off anything or nothing. But its a huge gamble.

Politically the Tories would never wear it, they too see it as a step towards giving up NI and to furthering independence movements in Scotland and Wales.
Obviously the DUP would be up in arms about it as it would be an utter betrayal of their loyalty to the Union and unionist Labour memebrs (in theory all of them as its the party line to support the union and oppose independence or further referendums) would not vote in sufficient numbers for it either.
And the Lib-Dems and SNP won't vote for any deal at all.

The EU demand is utterly at odds with the basic principle of the UK leaving- that all of the UK leaves the custom union.

This changes a lot of things.

A general election would be pointless, with the EU having that as a red line they will not budge on, any future government, no matter the mix of the House would not get a majority to do so under any circumstances.

As far as I can tell if this is truelly an unmovable red line then no deal is the only possibility, not just for Boris, but for any UK government of any shade or stripe. This sinks Corbyns plan to negotiate a deal just as surely as it does Boris's. It just wont fly. }}

Interesting!
I'm sure the EU must have done their own "Yellowhammer" analysis. Maybe it's not so alarming after all? In that case, it would seem the EU's strongest game might be to politely just let the UK struggle along on their own as an example to other member nations who might have been thinking about leaving.
It would be really interesting to get a peek at that EU yellowhammer doc, but I'm betting that ain't gonna happen.

{{ That would be interesting to read!

I am taking this with a pinch of salt- there is negotating time left just, and its usual in such circumstances for both sides to try to pressurise the other before a final last mad scramble in the final hours to thrash it out.

Also this information is being put out there by no10, not the EU.
That serves two purposes- by telling everyone the EU are saying they won't budge it puts pressure on the EU to consider budging. And if Boris fails to get his deal it plays into plan B- blame the EU as wreckers of any deal by being intransigient and refusing to let the UK actually leave, using NI as their trap and use that narrative as his election rallying cry.

Right now the future is really in the EU's hands. If they stick to their position then a deal is not possible and they will either have to approve an extension, the purpose of which would be hard to justify when the two positions are so opposed with no hope of reconcillation- or refuse the extension and we leave on no deal on Oct 31st.

Not long till we find out which either. }}

By all accounts according to Amber Rudd,  Cummings is angry and desperate.

we need Blue to explain what a Nobile Officium is, because tomorrow the Scottish courts will decide whether they can ask for an extension and bypass Johnson.

{{ Not entriely sure what a Nobile Officium is Figg, but if its what I think it is then mine gets bunged up something awful in damp weather and then goes all limp }}}

{{{ You know there is a fairly straightforward solution to the NI issue, but no UK government would do it.

First in simplest terms the problem-

The UK wants to leave the EU and that means leaving the customs zone.
Under normal circumstances this would mean the only land border between UK and EU would be in Ireland.
However the Good Friday Agreement prevents any border, or border checks from being placed in Ireland.

Leaving just Ireland in the custom zone to prevent a border and checks would mean NI would be seperate from the rest of the UK, making it unacceptable to Unionists in NI and in Westminister.

Taking NI out of the custom zone necessitates a border which is against the Good Friday agreement.

Further, any border check zones within Ireland would likely draw violence from nationalist groups.

Leaving NI in the EU custom zone and seperating it from the rest of the UK is likely to draw violence from Unionist groups.

So the solution? Simple. Recognise the will shown through their votes of the Northern Irish people and of the Scottish people- to remain in the EU.
So keep Scotland and NI in the EU custom union and put the checks along the Scottish/English border and at the ports in the NW of England that trade with Ireland.

It appeases the Good Friday issue as there would be no border or checks on the island of Ireland, and it would respect the votes of Scotland and NI.
A Scotland/England border whilst more inconvientant than no border is something we could get used to and is far less likely to draw violence than a border in Ireland would.

I would go as far as to say it was the only logical solution to an otherwise impossible circle to square.
Sadly logic will not come into finding a solution when its overwritten by politics. }}

That's far too logical

{{{ Looks like Boris's plan A is nicely on schedule.
He has been having meetings with the Irish Taoiseach (PM), if Boris can get him to agree to his Brexit deal then so will the EU.

'Mr Johnson and Mr Varadkar held "detailed and constructive" talks for more than two hours on Thursday.
Mr Varadkar said the "very positive" meeting meant negotiations could resume in Brussels...Mr Varadkar told reporters the talks were at a "very sensitive stage" but were "very positive and very promising". The Taoiseach said he was now "convinced" the UK wanted an agreement, adding: "I do see a pathway towards an agreement in the coming weeks."

And the press, doing their bit in Plan A, having been reporting on and stirring up the chaos, now are priming the victory, here's todays headlines from the major newspapers-

'Irish Eyes are Smiling'- Metro
'Dare we dream of a deal?'- Mail
'Deal can be done by Oct 31st, says Irish PM'- Telegraph
'Johnson and Varadkar see Brexit deal 'pathway' as talks shift mood.'- Financial Times
'We can see path to Brexit deal'- Guardian
'Pathway to a deal in sight'- i
'Has Boris only gone and done it?'- Daily Express

So from Boris's perspective so far so good- whilst creating the impression of chaos and a disregard for the consequences of no deal, he has manouvered everyone into position. He is on the verge of what will be painted as the biggest UK triumph since beating Hitler, he's purged all opposing voices against him in his own party, and he's led the opposition parties up a no deal frenzy garden path into apolitical dead end right before a probable general election will be called.
And he's been at this plan since the very start, its been adapted a few times to circumstances, as I've commented on as they happen, but at core it's never changed and now it's looking like it will bear political fruit.
And of course if for some reason the plan falters at the last hurdles, he still has Plan B.

Much as I don't agree with or like Boris, wouldn't vote for him and I am fearful of what he will do to the devolved parliaments, its also as a political watcher hard not to have some grudging admiration for his political manouvres and the sheer size of the gambles he is willing to play to achieve his aims.}}}

Looking back I see lots of discussion of Plan A, but I don't see a single description of Plan B.

{{{  Ive gone over plan b a few times!!

Plan B is what comes into play if either the EU refuse to agree to a deal, or the House reject it in a vote.
Plan B is to go to the electorate in such circumstances, using a People v Parliament argument and painting Boris as the only one seriously trying to enact the will of the people.
Its why Boris has been so keen on a general election, and why the oposition have been so keen on refusing him it- they know he will come out the winner. And the reason he will come out the winner is the unpalatability of Labour, the confusion of the oppostion message (created in no small part as a response to Boris's actions) and because unlike the others he has noone left in his party in a position to challenge or replace him.
And when he wins he will use it as justification for Brexit, by whatever means he deems necessary comes January 2020 (assuming we get an extension till then in the event of no deal). And if he has a majority then there is nothing at all to stop him, he can pass his brexit deal in the House with it. Unlike his predecessors May and Cameron he has no worries about his own side knifing the deal- he has got everyone on his side or gone from the party already if they weren't.}}

Oh I see, you have mentioned what he will do if plan A doesn't work, but never explicitly called it Plan B, at least not in concert with a description of it.

I think the Opposition had the chance to stop him but chickened out, its too late now. But the Tory government blinked first, and must have given assurances of some pretty major compromises for the EU and Irish to sound so positive. I wonder if the DUP and ERG will realise its either this or no brexit whatsoever. Johnson will have a landslide victory in the GE and it will be full steam ahead for the Tories. This shows how disasterous Corbyn is for the country.

But the Tory government blinked first, and must have given assurances of some pretty major compromises for the EU and Irish to sound so positive.- Figg

{{He will have compromised on where the checks are - I suspect they won't be in Ireland which will piss off the DUP as it would put a border down the Irish sea but they dont have the sway they had with May, she needed their votes, Boris doesnt.
And I think there will be some changes to the idea that the Assembly has a four year veto on the agreement, I think the EU will concede the Assembly will play a role but it will be watered down to prevent giving the DUP essentially a wreckers veto.

As to the opposition- they have only 1 card left to play, the same one they have had all this time- call a vote of no confidence in the government, set up an interim government to hold a 2nd referendum and then a general election.

But as of now this plan is in chaos- the opposition parties can't agree who should lead such a government, Labour insist Corbyn or they won't vote for it, everyone else says it can't be Corbyn or they won't even win the vote of no confidence.

Half of the opposition parties want a 2nd referendum before a general election, as having it afterwards needs a remain party to win, if Boris and the Tories win again, and they will, he won't be standing on another referendum but on leaving.
And if they do want an interim government to hold a referndum before an election, to ensure it happens, that would take a minimum of 6 months to set up and do, maybe a year, far longer than anyone wants an interim government- especially one led by Corbyn.

So the only thing I can see to stop Boris now is the one thing the opositions parties are in to much disagrement and dissarray over to pull off successfully.


Halfy the thing about plan B is though its the B plan its also been in action for months, the Tories havnig been prepping the press ground, putting out the narratives and creating the grounds on which they will stand. They are way ahead of Labour on prepartions for a general election and more importantly on controlling the narrative of it.
As there is no certain way to know if or when Plan A will fall Plan B has been in action all along as the backup - if A fails it will step up to the main game and become the 100% focus, whereas now Plan B is just being kept bubbling along under the surface, laying the groundwork.}}

It looks like the Lib Dems are going to scupper any chance of an interim government, the irony is its their fault if brexit happens because Swinson is stubbornly refusing Corbyn

{{ I can see her point- to win a no confidence vote they need lib-dem, labour (whose own leave MP's wont support it or vote for it), snp, green, independents and the votes of a chunk at least of the remain Tories (Boris kicked most of them out the party but they are still in the Parliament). And those Tories simply will not vote for Corbyn, they have catgeorically stated so- and without their votes on top a vote of no confidence would fail.

One could therefore argue the fault lies with Corbyn, who refuses to consider any other option but himself to lead an interim government- Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman have both said they would do so, and both would get the required votes- being neutral candidates who have agreed they would merely use the time to ensure we dont crash out the EU without a deal by postponing, and to call an election- that doesnt require Corbyn doing it.
His refusal to step aside for a less controversial and contentious candidate is the real problem. }}

It doesn't matter now that Johnson has compromised and his deal will probably get through parliament. its too late, and after brexit the Lib Dems will go back to being non-entities, and Labour will lose another election. Its going to be shit.

{{ Well what a surprise! I am so shocked by this unexpected turn of events, who could have predicted it?  

Boris has struck his deal with the EU. Details are slim buit it seems to involve a seperate deal for NI compared to the rest of UK, probably with custom checks down Irish Sea.

Bori says- '"We've got a great new deal that takes back control."
and the EU are urging both sides to back the deal saying it was 'fair and balanced' and protected the Good Friday Agreement.
The main points are

'The island will remain aligned to a limited set of EU rules, meaning goods will be checked on entry to the island, rather than across a border on the island
   
Northern Ireland will remain in the UK's customs territory, benefiting from the UK's future trade policy. but it will also remain an entry point into the single market
   
Mr Barnier did not go into detail about what has been decided about VAT - a key sticking point of the deal for the DUP - but he says: "On this point also we have maintained the integrity of the single market but also satisfied the UK's legitimate wishes"
   
Four years after the enforcement of the deal, the elected representatives of Northern Ireland will be able to vote on whether or not to keep the arrangements in place.'- BBC

But its not over yet, Boris still needs to get this through Parliament remember.
So far the DUP are saying no to it which means Boris might not get all the ERG voting for it, we shall see soon how strong Moggs convictions really are now he has his feet under the table of government.
Labour say they wont back any deal that isn't first put to the people.
The Lib Dems are desperatly trying to pretend Boris hasnt just made them utterly irrelevant again with Swinson piping up from the sidlelines somewhere- "The fight to stop Brexit is far from over." Yeah sure.

It will all come down now to the crucuial vote in the Commons and if Boris can whip enough and get enough support from other parties (mainly Labour leave MP's and the independents that were former Tory party members).


updated news- Mogg has squirmed his way out of his former position and that of the ERG- if the DUP say no we say no- now they back Boris's deal!

'Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg calls the new Brexit deal "really good and exciting" and says his faith in Boris Johnson has been justified.
He calls on socialists to support the deal as it honours the referendum result and urges Tory Eurosceptics to also back the deal as the "anti-democratic" backstop has gone and the UK "will be free of the European Union".'- BBC

The weasel continues to be a weasel! }}

{{ So looks like pretty much everything is falling into place as predicted.

Plan A is working for Boris.
He has caused chaos in Parliament, returned triumphant at the last minute with a deal, and said deal is a betrayal of the DUP and ERG original positions (which the DUP at least are still holding to so far) being as predicted a rewarming of Mays rejected deal and in the words of Barnier today-

'There should be "no surprises" in the agreement as "much of the final text" is the same as Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement.'- BBC

Aslo as predicted neither the DUP nor Farage's Brexit party are buying it as being substantially different from May's deal.

The vote will be tight, but even if Boris loses it he is perfectly positioned to move fully to Plan B - blame the other parties not himself and to go to the people- and against Corbyn he still wins. }}

{{ Statement from the DUP -

"Following confirmation from the prime minister that he believes he has secured a 'great new deal' with the European Union, the Democratic Unionist Party will be unable to support these proposals in Parliament.
The Democratic Unionist Party has worked since the referendum result to secure a negotiated deal as we leave the European Union.
We have been consistent that we will only ever consider supporting arrangements that are in Northern Ireland’s long-term economic and constitutional interests and protect the integrity of the Union.
These proposals are not, in our view, beneficial to the economic well-being of Northern Ireland and they undermine the integrity of the Union."

Will now be interesting to hear how Mogg justifies his shift given this statement and if the rest of the ERG will follow Mogg's or the DUP's lead- that could be the difference between Boris getting his deal or not- it may be that even after all his manouvering, ousting long standing party members, giving Mogg and co a seat at the big boys table, it might all still not be enough to prevent the same fate befalling Boris's deal as Mays- scuppered by the Irish. }}

Been thinking about this: Britain never adopted the Euro, it seems the main thing to come out of Brexit would be the ability to set tariffs and a few import regulations. I'll admit not knowing much about international trade, so what else would change? Is this actually mainly about the ability to control visas?

{{ Being part of the EU is more than goods and visas.
At the top you have the European Court, its the top court and can even overule decisions made in UK courts if they go against EU rules and laws - and those rights cover a lot for EU citizens, and being in the EU includes freedom of movement across the EU and access to benifits and services in the country they stay in, workers rights and lots more besides.
And as a member of a trading bloc individual countries cannot make or strike their own trade deals as the bloc negotatates as a whole and all trade deals with countries outside the EU are done with the EU, not with individual members.

So leaving would put the UK Supreme Court back as the top court with no EU court over it (one of the main arguments by those who say Brexit is about sovereignty, also means however there is no legal recourse for a citizen who feels the govenrment has mistreated them, there would be no judge on the judges any more), it would put the UK directly in control of it immigration and border control (meaning of course no more free movement or right to work in EU countries for UK citizens as well) and allows the UK to strike its own trade deals on whatever terms it likes (and cuts us out any deals the EU have and we already part of), and workers rights (holidays, sick days, maternity leave etc) would be up to the UK government- a scary thought if its Tories in charge as many fear a race to the bottom. }}

{{ Junker has said the EU sees no point in offering an extension, this is th ebest the EU will offer - and whilst he alone cant make that call its a very strong sign the EU will not extend the deadline again. Negating the Benn Act forcing Boris to seek an extension if he fails to get a deal through on Saturdays vote.

In that case when MP's come to vote on Saturday its a straight choice- vote for Boris's deal or get no deal on the 31st.

Fait accompli I suspect! }}

If any Labour MPs vote for this they are utter wankers. They will have sold us out for their careers. How could any self respecting Labour MP vote with Johnson, its beyond belief.
Swinson can fuck off, she had the chance for a caretaker government/temporary Corbyn, but started getting cocky and blew it.

{{ Results of a snap poll from YOUGOV on Boris's deal. }}