UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

People who are propogating a brexit really aren't thinking things through.

http://www.andywilliamson.com/10-points-to-consider-about-brexit-and-the-eu-referendum/

I agree with some of what he says, especially regarding the UK still being beholden to many international laws and agreements, but I'm skeptical of the idea that the UK will be internationally isolated or lose its prestige and power if it leaves the EU. I don't believe for a second that the UK will be shunned by the US if it leaves. The special relationship has always depended largely on personalities and Obama is clearly not an Anglophile but EU membership or lack thereof has no impact on that. The UK is also making a major "pivot to Asia" of its own, especially with Osborne attempting to woo the Chinese, which as far as I can tell appears to be happening mostly independently of Europe. Keep in mind of course that even if the EU avoids the destabilizing blow of having a major member state leave, it' still faces an uphill struggle and is nowhere near presenting a united front on any major issues.

Oh, and UN Security Council reform is not happening. The very idea is laughable. None of the current members have any incentive to let it proceed.

The economy will thrive if we’re outside the EU. Seriously? It’s not even worth bothering trying to answer this one! The statement is just so blatantly devoid of logic. We’re not Norway. we sold off most of the family silver years ago. And what’s left is rapidly being outsourced and sold off too. And that great shining generator of wealth (for a small few), the financial sector? That will move to Frankfurt, did you ever see a bank with loyalty? (OK, I accept that this could be seen as a plus). In short, if we leave, we get to live through a fire sale at the sunset of a once great economic and political power.

It is the simple fact of the matter that the UK is incredibly dpendent on the rest of Europe economically. And a position like the norwegian or swiss just isn't a tenable alternative for a country as deeply in debt as the UK. Norway pay a huge economical cost to be involved in the common market without being part of the EU.  

No, the EU might have issues, but they must be solved by internal reform. Not that the conservatives are the people to make any positive changes in any case.

Most importantly though.

Perhaps the most depressing thing is that this referendum, and an entire country’s future, is at risk of being decided through ignorance. Ignorance led by mis-information and a false sense of identity that fails to grasp that this is 2016, not 1816. We’re being fed a diet of half-truths and outright lies based on short-termism when the real issues are not just complex but fundamental to our economic and geopolitical future.

I think that's undeniable.

Brittain leaving the EU is the fevered imagining of someone living in a past century.

I'm not disagreeing that there would be economic repercussions -- I don't really know enough to have an intelligent debate on that subject as opposed to just linking to thinkpieces from either side, but from my layman's perspective the case seems convincing -- but some people seem to be under the impression that the UK would be diplomatically shunned by the world (not just Europe) as a result of leaving the EU, which I just don't see happening.

No, but their lack of real geo-political power will be exposed. And their role as a political player on the world stage will diminish as the article points out. (While of corse it's not an either/or situation.)

How is the UK's current geopolitical position vis-a-vis the rest of the world outside Europe dependent on the EU? The UK is one of the very few countries in the world that has the military and diplomatic means to assert itself on the world stage, and it has that ability independent of Europe. Of course, military strength is influenced by economic strength, so there would be repercussions in that regard, but the UK isn't dependent on Europe for its international prestige and influence. Neither is France, for that matter, in part because it has similar strengths to the UK (both are nuclear powers, both have permanent UNSC seats, they've got the Commonwealth and la Francophonie respectively).

The EU stand together internationally in areas coeverd by Union competence. (Like trade agreements, particularly copyright, WTO negotiations, but a lot more, including foreign policy. The areas where the Union and the member states share competece are even wider. In international negotiations the 28 member states will often act and stand together throught he Union, giving their arguments much further weight. For instance the TRIPS agreement on copyright were all but dictated by the EU.) The UK can always lean on their strong link and relationship with the 27 other countries of the Union when acting internationally. Lack of Union membership will weaken their standign internationally, and their ability to effect real changes and influence international development.

I don't really see how that can be denied.

The UK would still preserve its membership in organizations like the UNSC and G7 and given the level of political division in Europe right now I'm unconvinced of the value of the backing chorus for the larger states, especially the UK and France. The free trade point is a good one and well taken, although I see a big difference between that and the idea that the UK would be shown to be some hollow creature of international relations with a "lack of real geo-political power".

The influence will diminish. The UK will no longer be a key voice in the largest trading bloc in the world and that must end up having some impact, especially as the UK would essentially be in direct competition with it economically. Money and 'friendship' seem to have a correlation when it comes to geo politics.

I do think that the whole brexit campaign is similar to the whole Trump campaign in that it is preying on people's anger at the general world situation that we find ourselves in. It also remind me a lot of the Scotland 'leave' campaign.

My vote will be to stay as I do not see any way that we could end up better off in the long term.

if we do leave it will be immigration that swings it rather than pure economics and if our border controls were as tough and uncompromising as in Australia people would be quite happy to stay in I reckon.

True, Lance. I think you and Blue are correct that the economic impact will be great and that will of course have after-effects through various the whole realm of politics, including international relations.

{{The main areas where it will b hard to see the UK government picking up the tab- is farming- about 3.6billion per year in farm in subsidies, fisheries, where again there are massive subsidies as well as agreements between nations on what can be fished where as a means of preserving an managing fish stocks. Energy and environmental issues- wind farms, wave development projects ec are all developed and provide jobs using EU funding.

Cameron says the government will continue to subsides farmers- but he has to get that passed- its nearly twice the bill of all the austerity cuts so far. Any future government has to stand up and ay e are cutting 2 billion for the most vulnerable in society but we are giving more than 3 billion to landowners- I don't see that playing.

And of course Scotland has a particular large percentage per head of population of agriculture, fisheries and energy. So we are adversely more effected than England who can rely on London's financial services to keep afloat.

But my main reasons for voting to stay in are those of socialism- since the Eu was set up there have been many break-throughs in worker rights- minimum wages across the Eu, maximum amount of hours you can be made to work, maternity, paternity leave, equal holidays and pay for part time workers and a host of other workers rights - if we leave those get torn up and the Tories come up with heir own- well as a care worker I know what they would have as they got us an exemption from EU working law- meaning I can and do work anything up to 14 days straight without a break and due to staff shortages I was denied any holidays. That's everyone's future if we leave the EU and leave worker rights to the Tory party to decide.}}}

I had a conversation with two close relatives the other day who stated their intention to Vote out, discussing it with them, their entire argument seemed to be based on A) The crap they read in the tabloids and B) some vague notion that immigration would be dramatically cut overnight, neither of them to the best of my knowledge have done any further reading on the subject (and both are generally very left leaning I think)...with the referendum only 10 weeks away I think alot of people will be voting with their hearts not their minds...

I had a family member who is voting out who claimed she had done all the research. She was quoting costs of membership as the main reason but failed to grasp a) the rebate b) the money we get back and c) the potential to lose a lot more income from not being part of EFTA or having to pay anyway without having any influence. Latest figures I have seen today suggest a potential drop of up to 6% GDP. That is a hell of a lot more than any savings we could hope to make.

farmers need cheap EU labour from countries like Poland, without these workers many farms will go out of business.

{{{ "One of the most striking things about the debate...is that the case for staying in, is couched, overwhelmingly, in negative and pessimistic terms. While the case for...is positive and optimistic. Those of us who believe... that our country has untapped potential which independence would release and our institutions, values and people would make an even more positive contribution to the world, if we are unshackled from the past."

Not Nicola Sturgeon during the Scottish independence referendum, but Gove, in a speech today.
How quickly he forgets he was spewing the Project Fear tactics he now despises not so long ago.
And the very economic figures he now derides as government propaganda come the very sources he was telling the Scots were infallible. That's a politician right there for you }}

Mrs Figg wrote:farmers need cheap EU labour from countries like Poland, without these workers many farms will go out of business.

OOOoooooo!!!! I want some cheap workers from Poland!!!!!

{{{{{{This referendum gets oddly morel like the Scottish one every day- yesterday Obama told Britain is view- in particular one point he made about trade has been like dropping a grenade in a fish pond- prior to this the exit side have sited the US as an example of a major power the UK could cut its own better trade deals with almost immediately upon leaving the EU, Obama however said, and I quote -

''And on that matter, for example, I think it's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it's not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done.
The UK is going to be in the back of the queue."

This strikes me, especially from the response of those on the exit side, as very much like when Osbourne said Scotland could not use the pound- the SNP said it was a bluff, said it was a scare tactic, and said that of course once we were independent they would cut a deal with us as its in every ones interests to do so.

In response to Obama saying we would go to the back of the queue the exit folk have responded thus-

''After Hollande it's becoming a bit of a pattern with Cameron: standing next to foreign Presidents threatening the UK Not a good look.'

'President Obama won't be in office by the time we're out of the EU post-referendum. Trade deal of course in both countries interests.'

''Obama doesn't have the authority to deny us a deal, as he will be long gone before any such proposals are on the table."

Although the weirdest response came from mad Boris who for seem reason thought it was a good idea to say it was down to Obama being part Kenyan, and that Obama harbours an '“ancestral dislike of the British empire”.

There are also accusations flying that Downing Street wrote Obama's speech- this is mainly centred on Obama using the phrase 'back of the queue instead of the normal US 'back of the line' but personally I think Obama is probably intelligent enough to modify his English to his audience.

But either way it reminds me of the 'you can't have the pound moment' and like that moment, whilst people might suspect strongly it is a bluff and rant and rave about how its just a scare tactic, in the end it will weigh on the decision people make and if its really worth risking that it was a bluff.}}}

I said a few pages back that this reminds me of the Scottish thing all over again. Exactly the same rhetoric from both sides and the same 'project fear' and 'project rainbow' bollocks coming out.

At the end of the day, this decision for people should be simple. Do we need to 'regain' our identity as a sovereign state answering to no other or do we move towards a larger integration and new identity longer term.

There are no other 'facts' because we cannot see the future. Although there seem to be plenty of blatant deceptions going on... especially on the 'out' side.

I found Obama's comments to be inappropriate, both because (as the Out campaigners have noted) it's a massively hypocritical position for the leader of such a fiercely independent country as America to take, and because one can only imagine the reaction if the tables were turned and Obama was inviting foreign leaders to come lecture and threaten the American people about how they should vote.

Eldorion wrote:I found Obama's comments to be inappropriate, both because (as the Out campaigners have noted) it's a massively hypocritical position for the leader of such a fiercely independent country as America to take, and because one can only imagine the reaction if the tables were turned and Obama was inviting foreign leaders to come lecture and threaten the American people about how they should vote.

He'll be leaving office when the negotiations are taking place if we do vote to leave, so it's not really any of his business.

I'm voting to stay in anyway.

Eldorion wrote: because one can only imagine the reaction if the tables were turned and Obama was inviting foreign leaders to come lecture and threaten the American people about how they should vote.

You mean like Netanyahu's visit?

If you're referring to the one where Congressional Republicans (without talking to the White House) invited him to give a speech in the Capitol, then yes, it's kind of like that, since I remember quite a few reactions to that one.