UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

I'm suggesting that Cameron thought the risk of losing the referendum was negligibly small or else he wouldn't have called it ... or, had he come to the conclusion that the referendum was risky after it was already set to occur, he would have had a better and less destabilizing back-up plan than immediately resigning. Osborne's lack of a statement or any effort at all to try to ease investors' fears suggests that the Chancellor was also not prepared for the possibility of losing, despite having been an important part of the Remain campaign.

Not sure why you deny that if Cameron won the vote he would have shored up his position within the Tory Party. The internal power struggles there have been well-documented over the past several years.

You're correct that most people thought that Remain would win. Cameron's miscalculation was understandable, but that doesn't reduce the magnitude of the blowback he's facing. If it did, he wouldn't have resigned.

{{{Lance- regards the Scottish position. I agree with your basic premise- we voted to be part of the Union, this was a Union wide referendum, the result has a Union result not a Scottish result. I dont like that- its this very democratic deficiency cited at the time of the ref as one of the reasons I was voting for independence- but its how it is and thems the rules (Interestingly, had Cameron accepted Sturgeon idea beforehand that for a Leave to stand it must have the vote of a majority of the UK countries we wouldn't be in this situation, as it would be 3-2 in favour of staying in- question is would England have accepted being outvoted by more countries but less people?

However, having said that, the reason for a second referendum is that what we elected the SNP on a mandate to call one in exactly these circumstances.
The SNP were just recently overwhelmingly voted back into power, and the mainfesto they stood on was one of much speculation and curiosity to pundits- as every SNP manifesto prior to it had promised to hold a referendum on independence (for most of their history this was a gesture as they were not in a position to carry it out), having lost the referendum the question was would they include it again? Or would they for the first time not have a pledge to a indy referendum?- with opposition waiting to pounce if they did with claims the SNP were obsessed, refusing to except the result and had their eye off the ball of running the country chasing their indy dream ect and if they left it out the manifesto then a large chunk of their own party and supporters would be angry and disillusioned, and all those thousands of new members they had gained might drift away disillusioned.
Sturgeons work round this balancing act was to include a pledge to hold another referendum in the event of a material change of circumstances only, and the manifesto then cited an example of such a change as being Scotland forced out of the Eu against its democratic wishes.

So having put that in their manifesto on which they were so resoundingly elected, now those exact circumstances have arisen she has to honour the manifesto pledge.
The irony is Sturgeon doesn't want this now- its too soon, way too soon. The SNP haven't worked out a new offer to try to persuade the people with, the EU question is solved in principle at least, but not the currency issue among others (though its the most important). Surgeon had planned a year long reflection and consultation before the SNP put together a package they thought might win- and winning is the thing- Sturgeon doesn't want to forced into a ref by circumstances- she wants to pick when its held- which is when she thinks they will win. She knows we only get 1 more shot at this for a very long time.
For that reason if you look at what she has said so far its a careful line she is walking- independence ref is on the table- but its not imminent either- within the next 2 years or so is her time frame- before the UK officially leaves, but not right now either. First she has given herself some wiggle room arguing discussions have to happen with the EU over Scotland (and NI's) position and all possibilities for Scotland remaining in have to be explored. }}}

Cameron knew the risk. Negligible was never the case. I knew that from thousands of miles away. You can't tell me he thought that. You may not think him canny - or smart at all? - but I don't believe he was that ignorant. I see no problem with him thinking the stay view would prevail, but he wasn't the only one wrong there. Nearly all the reports I heard from what I saw as sensible critics saw the stay desire being stronger than the leave desire, including the leave desirers who seemed reasonably 'canny'. It's always easy to look back with wisdom than look forward with it. As always, those who were pretty fed wrong are now either going quiet or uttering words of shock - those among them who were leavers, happy shock, perhaps - though I wonder how many of either them are now thinking "Oh god, I only wanted to put pressure on the EU for a better deal, I never thought we'd actually win the vote!" As to Cameron, as I keep saying, he knew the risk as Prime Minister as Much as I did as a half-interested viewer from thousands of miles away. We just both thought enough Brittains were sensible enough to not let it happen. More fool us! Though democracy was respected, which only goes to show that sometimes democracy is not respectable.

{{{Re Cameron- I think you are all giving the man far more credit than he deserves. He is hands down the worst PM of my lifetime. At least the worst of the rest had bloodymindedness to admire in them, Dave has nothing no convictions, no real beliefs, no big ideas.
This whole referendum is because he lacked the wit and imagination to get out the situation.
Although the Tory europe trouble goes back a long way (anyone remember Mayor's 'bastards' over Massterricht?) but Camerons trouble is only as deep as UKIP.
UKIP leeching votes in Tory english heartlands and eventually leeching an MP and a bunch of councillors.
This was fear of UKIP, a panicky, kn
ee jerk in the moment reaction- of an english problem in england that made Dave call his referendum- it was a means to control his own rebel bakbenchers (look how well that worked too once they were let out the traps- blue on blue open warfare, with government cabinet minsters calling their PM a liar!) and placate a right wing press. It had no long term thought behind it, no plan, no principle or conviction. It was a quick fix to an immediate problem.
Even the Scottish referendum he made an arse of- he gave total control over the holing  of it the timing, ect to the SNP, he panicked in the last few days and basically put a form of devo-max on the table he had sworn against doing, as long term it only furthers the indy cause, and when all he had to do was make a conciliatory speech following it bringing the country together, he instead thought it a good time to make a hugely divisive announcement about English votes for English laws.
He is incompetent as a PM. He got the job because he looked in presentation stakes most like the Tory version of Blair.
He failed to win his first election having to form a coalition, and he only won the second one in the face of the spectacular implosion of Labour and the fall of the lib-dems. And even then he rules on one of the lowest share of the votes of any modern government. And he is now most likely responsible for the worst decision since Suez and quite likely the end of the UK as it stands.}}}

{{{Besides Scotland, Cameron has also walked from the exploding bomb he planted leaving NI in a hell of a position.
The EU has been essential to the Ni Peace Process, not only facilitating talks leading to the creation of the devolved NI Parliament, but the Courtof Human Rights is embedded in the legislation, not least as the arbitrator in cases of past terrorism and its victims. There wouldn't be a NI as it is without the EU involvement- they were and are the impartial third voice needed.
Another huge issue is the border with the rest of Ireland which is a EU member.
Now the UK is out thats the only land border between the UK and the EU.
Its also psychologically a hugely sensitive area. The thought of it being a border crossing again with checkpoints ect is not one which will have a good effect on NI. And indeed this has already been raised in Ireland.

On top of that Sein Fein have already called for an Irish referendum for unification, thus keeping NI in the EU and solving the border issue- but obviously leaving the UK to do so.
There isnt a majority in NI for this at the moment, and I dont think the EU issue will trump the centruries old Catholic/Protestant divide, they are a generation, probably two away from that yet.
But it demonstrates the Pandora's box Cameron has opened here. }}}

{{{{The UK state of affairs as I see the at the moment-

The PM has resigned and has no effective control over his Cabinet which is in open revolt with him and each other over who will be the new leader.
The UK Commissioner to the EU has resigned. Meaning we have no one at a senior level in position to negotiate the exit.
The Opposition Party is also in a civil war. Corbyn is being challenged on a no confidence vote, and today sacked Hilary Benn for inciting Labour MP's to resign if the no confidence vote is not heard at the next Party Meeting.
So in England there is no effective government. And no effective opposition in place at a time of national crisis.

In Scotland a second independence referendum is on the cards and the government though still fully in control and united, is in a situation not of their making and that they did not want, trying to find a third way forward.

In NI old sectarian flames are being fanned by calls for a reunification with the rest of Ireland, and by the very real prospect of a physical border splitting Ireland again. And fundamental question loom over the peace process and the integral part the EU Court of Human Rights has in its functioning.

And just to cap it all off the pound has nosedived in value, and was only stabilised by the bank of England pulling over 200billion out of its arse as liquidity for the banking system (where was that during all these years of 'necessary' austerity? Down the back of the their fucking couch?!) which will probably need bolstering further before this is done, increasing the likelihood of interest rates going up to compensate and mortgages going up. }}}


{{{BREAKING NEWS!!!! - the BBC Political correspondent Laura Kuenssberg just tweeted this-

Just been told half the shadow cabinet to resign this morning

It just gets more disastrous by the minute. Our political system at Westminster has collapsed.}}}

You should be thankful that bank managers all the world over can afford such big couches Mr Socialist!!! Poor bankers. Even the competent ones will probably now have to contend with smaller bonuses for years...  

Don't agree about Cameron, but Lefties are bound to despise him.

{{{At least I didnt point out he is also an Etonian pig-f*cker!

The first of the Shadow Cabinet resignations is in-

Heidi Alexander, the Labour MP for Lewisham East, says she has resigned as shadow health secretary with a "heavy heart".
She says she does not believe Jeremy Corbyn has "the capacity to shape the answers our country is demanding" and if Labour is to form the next government "a change of leadership is essential". - BBC

Looks like instead of the Night of the Long Knives, we are going to get a Morning of Short Knives in Corbyn's back. }}}

Luckily, the European Court of Human Rights has its basis in the European Convention of Human Rights which is a Council of Europe effort. So, it should, in theory, not be effected or affected by this vote. (I wonder if those leave generals remembered to communicate that.. )

O.M.G its Krystallnacht in the Labour party.

they just sacked the most principled statesman in British politics. Hilary Benn. *speechless*

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{{At least I didnt point out he is also an Etonian pig-f*cker!

The first of the Shadow Cabinet resignations is in-  

Heidi Alexander, the Labour MP for Lewisham East, says she has resigned as shadow health secretary with a "heavy heart".
She says she does not believe Jeremy Corbyn has "the capacity to shape the answers our country is demanding" and if Labour is to form the next government "a change of leadership is essential".  - BBC

Looks like instead of the Night of the Long Knives, we are going to get a Morning of Short Knives in Corbyn's back. }}}

Cameron will go down as the worst PM in British history, even Blair is starting to look good in comparison I have never known the UK gvt to implode like this in modern history, its either a moment of tumultuous change and we will rise like a Phoenix, or our Goose will be well and truly cooked. Personally I am going to buy some Cranberry juice, I heard its nice with goose.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/nigel-farage-ukip-britain-recession-brexit

Let the chaos in the UK be a warning to you Figgs, Italy is growing ever more Euroskeptic...

I shouldn't like to seem a mercenary in Brittain's time of crisis, but I feel that opportunity knocks for our very own King of Cranberries (and other vegetables)!

Malick its not going to happen. apart from a few nutters in the 5 star party the Italians are 100% European orientated. They are horrified and worried about Brexit, basically they think we are idiots. with good reason. Italians benefit a LOT from the EU stability.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale

My great Aunt and Uncle (and other relatives) are Welsh, and live in a largely white area, deprived area with higher than average unemployment...

https://twitter.com/jamieross7/status/747019954214535168

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/26/uk-food-prices-set-to-rise-after-brexit-vote-farmers-union

“The average income of a farmer was just over £20,000 in 2014, and 55% of that was EU money, so that’s how important that money is,” said Meurig.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-disenfranchised-expats-denied-eu-referendum-missing-postal-votes-demand-re-run-hundreds-a7103066.html

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/747026084944838656

Conservative Leave MP, Boris backer: "there is no plan. Leave campaign don't have a post Brexit plan, Number 10 should have had one"

So..that referedum for a 2nd petition just got more interesting:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/william-oliver-healey-referendum-petition_uk_576f8b28e4b0232d331e1b39

***CAN I HAVE YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE!!!***
Dear All
Re: EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum petition
This petition was created at a time (over a month ago) when it was looking unlikely that 'leave' were going to win, with the intention of making it harder for 'remain' to further shackle us to the EU. Due to the result, the petition has been hijacked by the remain campaign. Admittedly, my actions were premature however, my intentions were as stated above. THERE WAS NO GUARANTEE OF A LEAVE VICTORY AT THAT TIME!!! Having said that, if it had not been mine, it would have been orchestrated by someone on the remain campaign. However, since I am associated with the petition and before the press further associate me with it I felt the need to better clarify my position on the issue even if it looks bad. I am it's creator, nothing more! The logistical probability of getting a turnout to be a minimum of 75% and of that, 60% of the vote must be one or the other (leave or remain) is in my opinion next to impossible without a compulsory element to the voting system.

I have been opposed to the bureaucratic and undemocratic nature of the European Union as an institution privately for many years and for all of my political career. I have openly and actively lent my support to both Vote Leave and Grassroots Out campaigns - why would I do this if I wanted to remain in the EU? I am genuinely appalled by the behaviour of some of the remain campaign, how they are conducting themselves post-referendum not just with this petition but generally. The referendum was fairly funded; democratically endorsed, every vote was weighted equally and I believe this was a true reflection of the mood of the country. To my fellow leavers, now doubting their decision please keep the faith, we will be fine just stick with it. I believe what we need to do now for the good of the country; is get behind the will of the British people, unite, issue Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon and move forward, with the process of leaving the European Union.

William Oliver Healey

Creator of EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum petition

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-26/hammond-uk-will-not-be-able-to-access-single-market-and-control-eu-migration/

http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/2670023-I-regret-the-way-I-voted

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-attacked-by-tory-minister-anna-soubry-for-placing-leadership-ambitions-ahead-of-our-a7103241.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/the-eu-will-treat-britain-like-greece/

Haven't seen much of Boris for a few days, he must still be busy celebrating  

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/brexit-david-attenborough-eu-referendum-result-environment-latest-news-a7100781.html

https://twitter.com/wrongisland/status/747054406026289152

I had to laugh at this suggestion:

How about changing  our name from The United Kingdom to The Formerly United Kingdom a.k.a F.U.K'D?

William Oliver Healey is obviously a knobhead.

But thanks for the protest vote.

Mrs Figg wrote:William Oliver Healey is obviously a knobhead.

But thanks for the protest vote.

It seems oddly fitting that a Johnson is likely to be the next prime minister...

Mrs Figg wrote: Personally I am going to buy some Cranberry juice, I heard its nice with goose.

Orwell wrote:I shouldn't like to seem a mercenary in Brittain's time of crisis, but I feel that opportunity knocks for our very own King of Cranberries (and other vegetables)!

cranberries!

malickfan wrote:

Mrs Figg wrote:William Oliver Healey is obviously a knobhead.

But thanks for the protest vote.

It seems oddly fitting that a Johnson is likely to be the next prime minister...

Whoever the next PM is will go down in history. Either they split is up from Europe or they probably spell the end  of the UK. Poison chalice indeed!

Not sure Boris will run for that reason.