US General Elections 2020

Pennsylvania's so close it will need to be counted up to the bitter end. They knock off counting at 10:30 pm and restart at 9 am, so nothing has changed since last night. I think it will be all day before we have certainty.

Biden doesn't need Pennsylvania to win, he just needs it to get a large segment of the population to shut the hell up.

Come on Joe!

I just noticed North Carolina can be flipped from leaning red if 72% of the uncounted mail-in ballots are for Biden. A bit of a stretch - Pennsylvania's more reasonable because at the moment it only needs to be 60% for Biden, but I'd sure be tickled if NC went that way as well.

If anybody's troubled by why people are still voting for Trump, check out the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen's vote share state by state. Anywhere she is polling over 1% you can bet there are a lot of voters who voted for Trump in 2016 who just couldn't bring themselves to do it again this time. And for every Libertarian vote there are probably 20 that just stayed home or only voted on state and local issues. That's enough to tip the scales significantly toward Biden without actually having to endorse him, which some folks would never do.

There was a question about the Puerto Rican Vote: they went 52% for statehood with about 50% turnout.

Whether congress acts on this depends on who's in control. Republicans generally don't want to let Puerto Rico in as they see it as tipping democratic, and with our Electoral College system even if they get only 1 vote by population (1 member of the house of representatives) they still get another 2 votes for 2 senators.

Yes, it comes down to pure partisanship. That's been the story for a long time.

{{ Dave, Fox are running a similar analysis, saying the Libertarian vote probably gave Biden the edge.
What troubles me is that it should require this, Trump is so obviously unfit for office, so obviously a danger to US interests that it should be clear by now.

You only have to take a look at how China has repositioned themselves globally in the last four years, whether thats on climate change, investing in poor nations (particularly in Africa) providing ppe and other life saving equipment around the globe to help against covid- they have seen the opportunity of a retreating inward America, and more they see the opportunity despite being a nasty tolitarian state to position themselves as the sane reasonable sounding ones, willing to engage and take steps to help others in the world.
America has lost its global footing, lost its global leadership and the dangerous tolitarian states are stepping up and into the gap left behind with ease and little to oppose them or present the counter argument. Worse your Presidnet attacks Americas allies, belittles and bemoans them whislt offering affection and free latitude to the dictaors and tolitarians, embolding them further. Any American who thinks any of this is in the best interests of America, or the wider world are idiots and fools.

And even on a domestic level Trumps disregard for climate and backin gof aging relic of the past fossil fuels is leaving America literally in the dirt. In Scotland renewable enrgy makes up 90% of our domestic energy needs. 90%. And we are were just getting started. Trump goes on about oil workers and fracking to save jobs, but you cant live in the past to save jobs, electricty put thousands of gas workers out of business, but we didnt stick with gas because that would be stupid. There is no real need anymore to go scrabbling in the dirt destroying the planet for fuel any more, but Trump will insist on it for very stupid reasons and in doing so America will be left far behind other nations. In 20 years the vast majority of the advanced world will have moved entirely from fossil fuels while America continues to dig, plunder the earth and destroy the biosphere whil tbeing left with an innefecient expensive meansof generating power. Its idiotic and dangerous.
He encourages his supporters to civil disobedience and violence then blames anyone who tries to stand up to them, and every other thing out of his mouth is a blatant and easily checked lie. He makes comments supportive of racists and white supremicists, and dog whistles continously. He denegrades and uses appaling language to talk of or to women, not to mention a history of being accused of sexual assualt, and braging about his ability to do so.
He undrmines and makes unstable core tenants required for a any democracy to work, such the intergirty of elections and state instuitions necessary for the functioning of any democracy from the court systems to his own intelligence branch.
Yet Americans have voted for him again and in greater numbers than last time. Sorry Halfy but you vote Trump you are a bad person as you are voting for destruction, the erosion of political and democratic norms, climate change denial and destruction of the planet and the undermining of a world order based on the rule of law, democratic debate and peace, handing it over to tolitarian states who believe in none of those things to the detriment of the entire world.
There simply is no good reason or excuse to vote for Trump beyond selfish self interest. Or because you are a racist, msyoginistic climate denier who doesnt mind countries like China having the dominant role and voice in global affairs.}}

Arg, I thought we'd see a big jump in number of votes counted when Nevada reported today, but it was only a 1% change. I suppose they didn't count any more since stating they would wait to report until today, and are just working through them incrementally. Assuming they counted for 2 hours before reporting, I see maybe 5%/day being counted, for another 4-5 day wait.

And equally incremental change in Pennsylvania, though only half as many to count.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/long-odds-trump-defense-secretary-esper-has-prepared-resignation-letter-n1245846

From what I've read Trump had planned to fire him eventually anway, but why reisgn now? is Trump planning on doing something crazy?

So, if Trump looses what are the odds on him either rage quitting the job (and probably getting a pardon from Pence) or not turning up to Biden's inauguration?

I wouldn't be surprised if he goes on a rampage and fires half his cabinet...

Apparently he's already talking about running again in 2024 (when he'll be 78 years old, evenmore in debt and probably a liability to the Republican party)

Oh, he's always planning something crazy.  If he loses it could get really fun - I think the nation can coast for a couple months with nobody at the top.

I wish they would hurry up and count the votes, its starting to make me antsy.

{{ Just watched Trumps crazed press conference in whch he effectively declared the entire election a fraud out to rob him, everyone is in on it, media, pollsters, the vote counters, polling stations, you name it. Then went onto talk about all the legal attacks he will be making to have votes discarded and the election overthrown. Actual evidnce for any of this, well there wasnt any, just conspiracy theories and madness. Even if Biden wins one of the remaining states to take him to 270 Trump is clearly not going to concede or give up the Presidency for possibly months as all his insane legal challenges clog everything up waiting to be heard (and then dismissed).
Goodnight America- Trump just completely destroyed your democracy and election process and any notions of a peaceful transfer of power that has been a bedrock of US democracy since its founding. There will be blood on the streets from this.}}

Well, I believe each state doesn't officially appoint its electors until mid-December and they do not officially appoint a president until early January so there are a few months anyway.

I also think that, by law, Trump has to step down in January if this is sorted anyway. I am not sure if I am right that Pelosi would then become acting president until things are sorted out.

We don't get Fox "News" here any more... I have seen previous of them distancing themselves from some of Trumps rhetoric on these lines. Are they still doing so or are they supporting the fraud claims? I think that will make quite a difference.

A lot of the online "right" media are not supporting it despite being very vocal in wanting Trump to win. They rightly see it as both very dangerous and so far unfounded.

I think there may well be violence, but not as much as some make out.

Apparently Trump has already been talking in private about possibly running in 2024 (not that I expect him to concede this election until the very last minute anyway), presumebly as a Republican again.

So if he did, would the Republican party be able to block his candidancy somehow? It seems pretty clear even they have washed their hands of him right now...could Trump run as a 3rd party candidate? Just how many die hard Trump supporters would switch their votes from the Republican's to a Trump indepedant run?

I was clearly and happily wrong. But it's still very close and could swing back again.

Now I'm concerned Biden may lose Pennsylvania - the fraction of the remaining votes he needs has gone from 64% up to 74%, with some military ballots still expected to come in.

This ain't over.

malickfan wrote: Just how many die hard Trump supporters would switch their votes from the Republican's to a Trump independent run?

All of them.

{{ Good piece from the BBC fact checking Trumps fruad claims- https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54837926 -

and I see in Michegan the court already threw out one claim 'as “hearsay,” asserting that the affiant did not have firsthand knowledge of the situation.'

and in Pennslyannia-

'The Philadelphia County’s Board of Elections is “intentionally refusing to allow any representatives and poll watchers for President Trump and the Republican Party,” Trump’s legal team said...U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond, a George W. Bush appointee, dismissed the request by saying, “As stated during today’s emergency injunction hearing, in light of the parties’ agreement, plaintiff’s motion is denied..."The City Board of Elections agreed to keep the barrier for all observers where it is - at 6 feet for now, and to continue to admit observers in compliance with the law, but no more than 60 per side. The President and his campaign representatives had falsely claimed throughout the day that their representatives were not allowed in the room. But their counsel admitted at the hearing, after questions from the court, that they had several representatives in the room."- Fox

If Georgia goes blue Biden doesn't need the rest. Can but hope. }}

But it would be sweet as can be if he got Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

Of course in close races all Trump's supporters will claim fraud. They can't imagine Biden could win any other way.

{{ Nevada is looking pretty good for Biden- still lot of counting to go but he is ahead and if trends continue that majority of late counted votes are mail-in and skew democrat he should hold on there, and its worth 6 electoral college votes, add in Arizona which is looking pretty much solid for Biden still and he's over the magic 270, Georgia would be a nice bonus and put him way over the line. But I dont think it will be necessary for him to win now.

Trump's biggest tactical blunder was telling his supporters to only vote on the day and not use mail-in. His plan seems to have been if dems use it mainly he can do what he is in disputed states, claim fraud, but its hugely backfiring.}}

Even his supporters in congress are attacking this move: it threatens their own legitimacy. It's like kings killing kings.

{{ Both pens and georgia should call today at rate its going now. If Biden gets either one he has won. If Arizona and Nevada call too and he nabs either of those (and both look pretty good for him right now) he is well above 270. }}

Does it normally take several days to count all the votes in the Presidential elections? Or is the huge volume of mail in votes taking longer to count than they normally would?

{{ Even if Trump hangs on in Penns and Georgia he is stil only on 268 (he is on course to get N Carolina and Alaska worth 18 between them )- and I dont think he will take Arizona or Nevada as it stands which means Biden still wins, just by skin of his teeth on 280.
Malick its combination of massive increase in mail-in votes due to pandemic, and a larger overall turnout than previous elections. }}

Just wondering, anyone heard from Eldy recently? She lives in Baltimore right? just wondering which way did they vote.