US General Elections 2020

It depends on the outcomes of a few others, but it looks like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will be the key with someone needing 2 of the 3.

Yes, Biden needs to keep the contested states that are currently leaning democratic, and then flip one contested state that's leaning republican (but not North Carolina, which has one electoral college vote too few). If the mail in ballots still being counted are 2/3 Democratic, he's on the knife edge. 3/4 democratic, he's got it in the bag. This is why Trump is so eager to stop counting. If you went by current majorities, Trump has won by a landslide. Let's hope the estimation of mail-ins being dominated by democrats holds strong.

Mrs Figg wrote:Has Biden won Winsconsin? thats an important state to win isnt it?

Biden is currently ahead by 0.7%, with 95% of votes counted. If the trend continues with mail ins, he's got it. I think nobodies confident about the D/R split in mail ins, though, or it would be declared for him.

About 20 minutes ago Michigan and Wisconsin, which were leaning Trump, started leaning Biden.  This process is pretty much irreversible, meaning that if all else stays the same, Biden narrowly wins.  Just barely, by a hair's breadth.

The only possible wrench in this story is Nevada, which is leaning Biden but with 2/3 of the votes counted announced it will not release any more information until tomorrow morning.  Now you'd think since it was already leaning Biden it would continue to do so, but Nevada's a strange place (The two biggest cities are Las Vegas and Reno) so I'm not totally convinced it will go with the flow.  But there is no doubt we'll know who won tomorrow morning with that announcement.

Doing the numbers, Biden only needs to win 60% of the uncounted votes to win his home state of Pennsylvania.  The numbers so far have been 77%, so I think he has a very good chance of coming out clearly ahead.

I'd rather it was obvious early on so Trump would have never had a chance to stupidly declare victory, but it is what it is.  And what it is is a Biden win.

Looks like Wisconsin and Michigan will be blue, possibly also Arizona and possibly Georgia. I think Maine too.

Nevada is an odd one like you said. Biden quite far ahead but could still flip.

I dont think Maine has called but looks blue.

Not sure if Pennsylvania will go blue or stay red, but possibly won't matter (same as N.Carolina which will stay red).

Can't believe that twat Lindsey Graham is still there.

Arizona was called blue last night. I doubt Georgia will go blue because Biden will need 80% of the remaining vote. Not sure when Maine was called blue but somebody sure thinks it is - I think the math is based on solidly red or blue counties remaining to be counted, which goes deeper than anyone except a professional quant would be willing to go.

So getting my hopes up again (temporarily anyway) if Biden does inch his way to a narrow win in the Electoral college votes and gets the election, how much can he get done if the Republicans take the senate?

In the midst of the pandemic, and a bitterly divided country I'm not sure I see the divide being birdged anytime soon, if Trump does loose I fully expect him to stoke up trouble on twitter, and some of the hard right may very well act on tha violently if they feel the election has been stolen...

If Trump does loose do we forsee him running again in 2024?

{{ Starting to very narrowly favour Biden now- Fox has him at 248 to trumps 214- Wisconsin gone to Biden. Though like many other places Trump is sending in the lawyers to contest the result. Pennslyvania is going to be close too by looks of it.
Senate is close but favouring Republican hold, just need 51 with dems on 47 reps on 48. Dems look like they will comfortably hold the House though. }}

Trump said the last election was rigged and he won it! If Trump does loose by a clear margin i don't think he'll concede until the very last minute, he'll spend the next two months riling up his supporters on twitter and filing lawsuits.

Any news on the Puerto Rico statehood vote?

If Trump does loose I wonder how the republicans will repsond to this, do they stick with a hard right candidate in 2024 or move more towards the middle to try and capture some of the moderate voters? (the Texas vote was far closer than I'd have guessed it would be...) Would Trump run again? maybe as a 3rd party candidate if he can't gain the repub support...

has Biden won Michigan? thats 16 seats isnt it, and that means he has won 269 overall? but I am not sure whats going on

{{ Fox just declared it for Biden putting him on 264
Guilano is ranting and raving about fraud and how the election is being stolen- its all the elite cheating! Claaming 100,000 ballots in penselvyania should be thrown out (they are expected to favour Biden of course). Not impossible for Trump to still win, but he pretty much needs a clean sweep of remaining areas to do it.}}

This is what i've been using.  https://www.yahoo.com/elections

If nothing flips, Biden wins by the skin of his teeth. Still hoping for Pennsylvania.

so if Biden wins Nevada he has won. Georgia is also looking dodgy for Trump. its looking good at the moment for Joe.

COME ON JOE!!!

I think this will all be sewn up by mid morning tomorrow; mid afternoon in Europe.

Georgia won't flip; Biden would need to win 90% of the remaining vote. But he only has to win 70% of the remaining vote in Pennsylvania. This is reasonable given that many Trump voters wouldn't be caught dead mailing in their ballot.

{{ Well my prediction at this late stage is Biden will squeak it just, and the least difficult bit to predict Trump wont leave quiety. He will try every legal trick in the book to get votes discounted and thrown out, and he will encourage conpsiracy and fraud theories that will provoke his more militant followers into taking direct action leading to violence and clashes with the left, which he will support and encourage. And he will drag it out as long as he possibly can to stay in office. His ego and narcissim leaves no room for anything less. }}

{{ Plus he is screwed when hes no longer got protection of the presidency, there are legal cases against him and his businesses waiitng to be heard, sexual assualt cases against him pending and all his debtors are getting ready to come collect and he's broke. And who knows what will come out about his time in office once he and his cronies are no longer in the White House to cover them up. }}

All exactly true.

When I made my prediction about it all being over by mid morning, that was before I found out that Pennsylvania calls it's vote counting to a close at 10:30 each night, rather than staying at it 24 hours a day as we all wish they would. Though Nevada may report earlier and provide Biden the votes he needs, it won't really be over until he has more than the bare minimum. I'm now predicting early afternoon it will all be over: dinner time in Europe.

So, which states shaven't announced final results yet? I know Georgia is looking very very tight, Penn. looks a lock fo Biden i.m.o.

I'm refreshing the live thread on reddit and soe have said there's a tiny chance texas could flip to the democrats???

Also, I'm sorry but WTF is up with those armed Trump supporters hanging aorund outside the polling/counting places.

If Biden does win I'm taking two things awya from this A) Trump may very well have won by a significant margin if it weren't for the Covid pandemic and B) His constant bitching about mail in/postal votes is working massively againist him.

Sometimes it feels like Turmp is engaged in a 3d chess match with himself...

I'm also reading that if Biden wins Georgia by a margin of 1% there could be a recount?

If Biden does win I'm taking two things away from this A) Trump may very well have won by a significant margin if it weren't for the Covid pandemic- Malick

{{This highlights one of my bighest issues with modern America- the buck stops there. In that as far as I can tell, on the whole, if someone thinks they are doing ok personally they will vote for the president who has made them a tiny bit better off, regardless of anything else. The President can be a liar, self confessed sexual assualter, hide his taxes, support white supremicists, allow violence to erupt on the streets, (and going on numbers damn near still win after letting and encouraging actions leading to over 200,000 dead Americans) but so long as the economy is doing well Americans will vote for them. Its the most selfish self interested nation on the face of the planet, so its hardly suprsiing they elect a leader that is too. You could be a bloody mess begging for help on the street and Amercians would walk right by you unless you can do something for them. The modern US refrain is "Whats in it for me?" having long, long since ceased to be 'how can I help and make things better?' I think Amercia is slowly but surely losing its humanity, compassion and any sense of community or wider responsibility to fellow man.
The last four years has very much opened my eyes to how far gone America is now, and horrified me equally in its apparent callous indifference. }}

Biden has no chance of winning Georgia, just Pennsylvania by a whisper.

It's a good observation that if not for Covid Trump may have won handily. It's a terrifying thought, coupled with the already terrifying fact that the voters who took a chance on him in the first election have had 4 years of seeing what he really is and STILL support him.

I know a lot of these people. They are in no way bad people. I keep trying to wrap my head around how they couldn't be repelled by him even if they like his policies. Many of them actually liked him, though now ruefully admit he's a jerk. But it isn't enough to get them to reject him. I think you can approach an understanding if you can imagine a politician who is finally, totally doing what you want, but insults people right and left, says horrible things but STILL keeps doing exactly what you want when nobody else will. You're more likely to ignore the mess for the sake of realpolitik.

when will we hear about Pennsylvania? it seems key.