US General Elections 2020

Yep, lots of rebuilding to do. And the voices Trump has awakened will not be silenced. I think they saw him as a hero because he'd come out and say things they knew were not fit for polite company. The lid is off now, and though that's probably healthier for the current generation I don't think it's good for the next generation. Kids today are raised with a conciousness for a wider world outside their own circle, but that will be lost with a large segment of the population.

I also think that a Biden/Harris administration you could end up swinging back red next time around, and maybe for a while.

{{ It's going to be an interesting night, and probably an interesting few days. Kind of glad I'm watching this from afar, seems safest. }}

Lancebloke wrote:I also think that a Biden/Harris administration you could end up swinging back red next time around, and maybe for a while.

Given that after Obama - who I called a moderate - caused the huge swing towards Trump I think you may be right. Biden in his prime would be more moderate than Obama, but he has only half heartedly stood up to the far left, and I fear he may swing too far left. All he need do is shore up Obama care and practice some common sense normalcy and all will be okay. But time will tell if sticks to his roots.

I think he is to far centre. I really think Bernie would have kicked Trump's ass... more like European left which is quite far left in the US... but not far left!

Stupid left and right!

{{ Ive noticed in US right wing media that when they talk of socialism and the left they tend to use countries like Venzuela, China and the like as examples of it and to avoid talking about European socialism.
Id highlight how the US right praised Margaret Thatcher and hold her up to this day as a beacon of conservatism and the Right in the face of communism. Yet you can watch her in the Commons defending to the hilt a Nationalised Health Service. That for me is the real fear of the Right in the US who are payed for by medical and insurance companies, that once the people have it they will never willingly give it up, or thank those who try to take it from them. They know once Amercians get a proper health care system they too, just like the Right in every other country with a similar system, will have to support it as its political suicide to do otherwise. If they let national health care happen they will never get rid of it and their gravy train crashes to a halt. Thats the real fear. }}

No, they just don't think European socialism is radical enough to serve as their bogeyman. But they will insist that European health care is not as good as American; which may in fact be true if you have millions to spend. The concept that anyone would actually prefer European style health care once they've experienced it is too alien a concept for them to process. There has been approving comparisons to Canadian Health care, but nobody would dare suggest that Canadians are anything like Europeans. Hell, they're just Americans who wish they could call themselves Americans. And if they have something that works it can't possibly be socialized medicine. 'Cause if it was socialized then they can't be Americans and everyone knows Canadians are actually Americans.

and on it goes...

For this planning to stay up late, I think this is what you are looking for:

With Joe Biden’s commanding lead in the polls, President Donald Trump will have to win pretty much every toss-up state tonight and in the coming days to secure re-election.

It’s not unprecedented. That’s essentially what he did in 2016.

If we’re in for another Trump wave, Republican pollster Frank Luntz lists the 4 states to watch for the first signs of it. These states “all come in early” on Election Day and “Donald Trump has to win all four” in order to get re-elected, Luntz told Yahoo Finance.

Those 4 states are Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. Georgia’s polls close first at 7:00 p.m. eastern time followed by North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30 p.m. and Florida at 8:00 p.m.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/these-4-states-come-in-early-and-trump-must-win-them-all-republican-pollster-frank-luntz-180223393.html

The markets are up so maybe they are hopeful for a Biden win. Lets hope so, this is the Big One.

I am listening to Biden speaking now... it is quite painful. Not sure if his brain is slowing down or just the control of his functions but he is really showing his age.

If Trump has anything over Biden it is energy!!

He just needs to get in and then let Harris take up the slack

The question is how many are voting against Trump rather than for Biden, will 3rd party/indepedant voters/those who sat out the last election vote for Biden just to get Trump out? Or will Trump be able to pull another blinder and sneak to a narrow Electoral College win?


Also, am I correct in saying Puerto Rico is also holding a refefendum on statehood today? From what I've red online it would most likely lean 'Red', but Washington DC would lean Blue and could potentially also be admitted as a state if the Democrats regain the house?

I don't see DC becoming a state. Not sure about Puerto Rico leaning red either.

Puerto Rico is just voting to start the process of asking the US the question, which the US may or may not consider. Then it's still a long process. So it's a milestone, but don't expect anything to really happen for perhaps close to a decade.

I think there will be fewer third party voters - people who don't like Trump REALLY don't want Trump and generally don't want their vote wasted. Same for those who like the guy. This is the most energized election in living memory, with few choosing not to take sides.

Thanks for explaining Halfy

Anything to report on yet? Results/polls etc

I'm keeping an eye on the reddit threads/twitter etc but will probably be asleep before we get any big results...

If Luntz is right in his numbers (see above) it's looking a bit rocky for Trump: Ohio's breaking for Biden at 54/44 wtih 50% of the vote in and North Carolina at 52/48 with 70% of the vote in.

But in other aspects it's not looking so good because Biden is behind where Hillary Clinton was in many places. Still a bit of a nailbiter because I'm not in deep enough to understand and have full faith in Luntz's math. But there's a chance Texas could swing liberal for the first time in 50 years (despite having a very colorful democratic governer a few decades ago). That would make it a Biden blowout.

Interesting: the exit polls are contradicting the counted votes in Ohio, though since last time I posted the counted votes have narrowed to 51/46.

At 90% of the vote in Ohio has shifted over to Trump, but it's not being called yet.

{{ Trump speaking right now, effectively declaring himself the winner- saying Biden cant catch him. Though numbers Im seeing thats by no means clear yet. }}

{{ Now he's on to claiming the dems are cheating ""This is a fraud on the American public, this is an embarrassment to our country, its voter fraud. We were getting ready to win this election, frankly we did win this election. We already have. This is major fraud, we will be going to the US Supreme Court, we want all voting to stop. We will win this and as far as I'm concerned, we already have." }}

Thats because he knows it is close and that there is still a good possibility he will lose. Anything to stay in power!

I'm going to go ahead and guess Trump is going narrowly win through some supreme court shennigans I really really hope he dosen't...but I'm used to elections not going the way I'd been hoping (my parliamentary constituency has been Tory continuously since 1885 so much vote literally never matters).

I knew it would be close, but not this close.

honestly I'm frankly astonished he's managed to increase his voter share from 2016 so well...I've been assuming his horrible handling of the pandemic and general behaviour would have counted against him more, Trump may be a corrupt sack of bile but he sure knows how to appeal to the voters...

If 'Boring Biden' ends up loosing by a narrow margin, there's no way Bernie Sanders/the left of the Democratic party would have won i.m.o.

Is the 'own the libs!'/single issue voters (anti abortion/gun rights etc) really that prevalent?

Regardless of who wins...good luck trying to bridge the divide over there Halfy...

malickfan wrote:
If 'Boring Biden' ends up loosing by a narrow margin, there's no way Bernie Sanders/the left of the Democratic party would have won i.m.o.

I disagree with that. Biden is exactly what people voted against when they brought Trump in to power... the centre, corporate democract. And then Kamala as VP who survived the primaries for about 10 seconds?

On the other side, Bernie was popular. He was seen as a shift from the status quo and his policies were generally popular too. The only problem was him being labelled as a socialist, which seems to be a issue in the US unless taxes result in bombing brown people.

I think Bernie would have won comfortably.

Hard to say, actually. I do know of two Bernie supporters who shifted over to Trump after Hillary won the nomination, for the anti-establishment reason you quoted. But there's a very strong anti-socialist, liberal=anti-freedom feeling here. And a strong sense that socialism tanks the economy - and Trump pretty much seemed to demonstrate that was correct (though if you look at most economic indicators you see the Trump economy as a linear continuation of the Obama economy, but that's too wonky for 90% of the population).

Which of those two tendencies would win out? I tend to think the second one would, and Bernie would not win after the Trump economy, despite running a deficit every bit as high as a socialist would.

BTW, the reason Trump could make his statement was because it looks about right: if the states leaning his way with a majority of votes counted continue the trend he would win handily. But since mail-in ballots take longer to count and lean heavily democratic it's not yet a gimme. It's truly, excruciatingly too close to call.

This is why I insisted on voting in person: I wanted my vote counted automatically the same day.

Has Biden won Winsconsin? thats an important state to win isnt it?