UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

It seems like populism, the far right and sheer stupidity has triumphed for a time in Britain and the moderates, remainers and opposition largely allowed them to poison the country without calling them out. Just a load of mealy-mouthed hand wringing went on for years. But due to the outrageous attacks on democracy, at last, the moderates have woken up and are fighting back, but it took near disaster to make them act. I think its a lesson to us never to allow lies to go unchallenged. Now its the final battle between reactionary forces who will do literally anything to win.

OK I've got internet back and I'm trying frantically to get caught up on a hundred different things, not least of which is the Brexit drama. Could I please get a quick refresher on what's coming up?

When I watched the last episode, I seem to remember that Parliament was to be prorogued on this Tuesday. So is Parliament still trying get more surprises done by tomorrow, or are they likely to be putting their feet up?

And wasn't the original intention of the prorogue to give Boris' government a free hand for five weeks? But now without an effective government and everybody talking about an election, what does the proroguery do for each team's game plan (other than making Johnson look like a would be tyrant)?

I still can't make out if there's serious game theory going on here, or if there's a bunch of thugs trying to break everything in sight, or both at once. Either way, I can't take my eyes off it all!

Basically,
1. Johnson sacked 21 of his own MPs for voting against him. One of these being Churchill's grandson.
2. The Opposition 'rebels' have passed a law preventing a no deal brexit, basically its now illegal, and forcing Johnson to go to the EU to ask for a 3 month delay.
3. Amber Rudd resigned in protest at 21 moderate MPs being sacked and the fact the government has done zero work on the deal.
4. Johnson is saying that he wont respect the law and will leave on the 31st regardless.
5. The Opposition will take him to court if he refuses or fudges.
5. Parliament will be suspended on Tuesday but it means that Johnson has no time to mount a counter attack thus he has been hoisted by his own petard.



So his options are limited but they could be disasterous,
1. He could make a deal with Farage.
2. He could put forward a no confidence motion in himself and force a general election before 31st October.
3. He could find some trick or obscure clause to get out of going to 'beg' for an extension.
4. he could refuse to ask for an extension, get sacked by the Queen and put an even worse extremist in his place like Raab.
5. He could win a general election, repeal the law, and force through no deal brexit.
6. Farage could win a general election.

{{ Very nicely summed up Figg }}

Yes, thanks Mrs Figg! That should bring me up to speed for whatever surprises the next episode of this soap opera brings.



Of course I've got a ton of questions, but they mostly boil down to 2:
1. Is there any unity emerging among the Opposition, or are they just holding it together with chewing gum and loathing for Boris/Brexit?
2. Is there any new leadership emerging, or is Corbyn still leading the charge?
{{Ideally you'd want somebody who registers on the "Luke-Obi Wan" scale }}

{{ Dave-

1. No. Everyone is in it for themselves basically. Stopping Brexit is being muddled up with the fact an election is in the offing, and everyone is also positioning for that.
That is why the Lib Dems won't support Corbyn as an interim leader- they need disgruntled Labour remainers voting for them in an election.
The SNP are angling for permissison from Parliament for a 2nd indie referndum, to that end they will back Labour for now, but not on any sort of permanent or offical capacity- its purely a confidence and supply approach.
If Labour were not to form the next govenrment then any collaboration between the two would end. Labour and SNP hate each other at a very core level, Labour inparticular have a huge scar left from the SNP stealing all their traditional ground in Scotland and effectively destroying Scottish Labour in the process. There is very bad blood there.

And there are of course large policy differnces between the three main players of the opposition coaltion.

Labour want no deal passed into law, then after oct 31st hold an election, then when they win that they will try to make a deal to leave and get it passed the House, and then they will put that to the people in a 2nd referndum alongside a remain option and probably they will be forced into including a no deal option for balance too. Alternatively they will hold the 2nd referndum before they try to come up with their own deal to leave - they are not exaclty being crystal clear on which way round they intend to do things as Corbyn tries to appease more than one faction at once by saying yes to both.

The Lib Dems want Article 50 revoked so we are no longer leaving at all, then a 2nd referndum held to see if we still want to leave at all or not.

The SNP want a 2nd independence referendum and to leave the UK and rejoin the EU as a new state altogether.

Right now they are all focused on preventing no deal and stopping Boris in his tracks. But its all that holds them together.

2. Technically Corbyn is leading the charge- he is officialy the head of the oposition. But leading seems such a strong word to use in assocaition with Corbyn the fence-sitter! }}

{{ Looks like Boris and co are looking to the laywers to find a way out of this.

'The government will "test to the limit" a new law designed to force it to seek an extension to the Brexit deadline if a deal is not reached by 19 October.
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the government would abide by the law but would "look very carefully" at its "interpretation" of the legislation.
"We will adhere to the law but we will also - because this is such a bad piece of legislation - want to test to the limit what it actually lawfully requires."

Chancellor Sajid Javid said the government "absolutely will not" ask the EU to extend the date of Brexit, adding: "We will leave on 31 October."
Asked how this would work, he told the BBC's Andrew Marr programme: "You will have to wait and see what happens because there is a lot of days between now and 19 October."

It is thought that Mr Johnson believes he could legally disregard some or all of the bill's requirements.
This could lead to an emergency judicial review by the Supreme Court next month.'- BBC

So looks like Boris is determined to fight back by hook or by crook (or even by lawyer! -sorry Blue! ) }}

{{ Boris is in Ireland. And what he thinks he can replace the backstop with is starting to get some form.
I said all along Boris's plan was to go to the EU meeting and return triumphantly with a deal. Now we are getting some glimpses of what those changes might be.

He is propsing Ireland have a single food area aligned with the EU market.
The plus side of which is that there would be no need for a border check on food stuffs- the most common thng to travel between the two zones. Plus a similar scheme actually already exists for livestock.

The down side to it is this is not new, it was propsed by the EU to May's government in the early discusions before we got to the backstop, and it was dismissed then becuase May could not get it passed the NI unionist parties who do not want anything which puts all of Ireland together in any way whilst also creating a border down the North Sea between NI and the rest of the UK- as a border would be needed to check foodstuffs going from mainland UK to Northern Ireland to make sure they are in line with EU standards.

And from the EU side they have to be carefiul they aren't creating a backdoor tariff avoiding route for mainland UK farmers to sell to the EU markets by shipping their produce via NI.

However May couldn't do it because she was dependent on DUP votes to maintain a majority- oddly enough by losing so many MP's Boris is not in that position, the DUP votes still don't give him anything like a majority anyway so their leverage is gone.
For the sake of a deal Boris will stitch them up, as I've said all along he would come the pinch. I think events have accelerated this all coming out- Boris wanted this to be happening closer to the actual EU metting next month. But he's having to react to events now.

Proposal number two on Ireland from Boris is that there be a backstop (bet he calls it something else though if adopted) but it would only apply to Northern Ireland- keeping them effictively in the EU custom zone, what Boris is adding to it is the idea that more control over it be handed to the NI parliament.
This plan was also one discussed early on in May's run, and again it was very strong opposition to it from NI Unionist parties that sunk it then as it creates a border down the north sea covering much more than just livestock and foodstuffs.

Boris still has that problem of not upsetting the Unionists, but honestly I don't think he really cares, not for them or their cause, he needs a deal far more than he needs their support now.
A deal saves his Premiership in triumph, a deal with the DUP does nothing.

What I am aweaiting with interest is to see how Mogg and the ERG are going to handle this? One of the reasons I think Boris wanted this plan coming out  further down the line was to reduce the time the ERG would have to object or try to block it.
Will the ERG and Mogg stand by their principles of before they had some power of if the DUP say no then we say no? Or will they choose to soften their approach for those cushy new jobs, limos and having actual power?  }}}

I have a feeling the 'test to the limit' bollox is just a way to save face and avoid attacks from the ERG and Farage. Its just more of the 'do or die' rubbish to appeal to the Daily Mail fanatics. They could not break the law without an impeachment or similar happening. They could however be tricksy and sneaky as Mogg seems to have made a career on obscure and arcane chicanery. I think its also more ticking down the clock and a diversion tactic to get the Opposition running round in circles. I should imagine however that Keir Starmer is far more clever and knowledgable of the law than Cummings.

{{{ Latest updates- Parliament is shut down- amid protests from some MP's chanting and waving signs with 'silenced' on them.
The Speaker Bercow has announced he will be standing down after october 31st- very much a case of jumping before being pushed as the Tories are after his blood more than usual (he is a Tory but is seen as a Remainer, and Boris blames him for allowing the motion tying his hands on no deal to get heard at all). As a matter of history and convention the Speaker stands unchallenged in elections by the other major parties. But Boris announced a few days ago that they would be putting another Tory candidate up to contest his seat.
Bercow was probably going to go anyway at the end of the Parliamentary year, he is choosing to go earlier, but not before he has seen the no deal thing through to oct 31st. Insuring the likihood it will happen and that his replacement will be choosen by the House, not Boris.

Meanwhile Labour are clarifying their positon! And its more muddled than before.

Basically Corbyn now says this-

'Jeremy Corbyn has promised a further referendum on Brexit with a "credible Leave option" if his party wins the next general election.'

But its worse than that. Corbyn is proposing that he negotiate a new deal with the EU to leave, and then hold the referendum, with his deal, hard brexit, and remain on the options.
But most of his party say they will campaign to remain. And Corbyn? Incredibly he won't say if he will campaign to leave on his own deal, or to remain. Or that his own party will even campaign for their own deal!  Thats masterlevel fence sitting that is!

We could well find ourselves in the ridiculous position if Labour win an election of Labour spending the first few months to a year negotating a new deal, the rigmarole of trying to get that passed the House again (no more likely than it was for May).
Then finally a referndum- in which Corbyn and Labour will then campaign against their own proposed deal! You couldn't make it up. }}

I think he is alone in that and he might finally get the message if 90% of his MPs, the TUC, the Lib Dems, SNP are all telling him to give up smoking unicorns.

{{ Its a complete fudge Figg. It could even get as ridiculous as Corbyn campaiging on his own for his leave deal whilst 90% of his own party campaign for remain.

But a lot of the presure for a leave deal is coming from the unions- they are all for it it seems.

'union leaders called for a Leave option from Labour...Mr Corbyn is due to meet union leaders on Tuesday to discuss the issue.'- BBC

And remember there are still a lot of Labour seats in leave voting areas. Corbyn still can't bring himself to abandon those potential votes, nor the unions the potential membershp and revenue, hence why he wants a leave option. That and he personally has never liked the EU or been a fan of it. He doesn thave the passion for it to campaign to remain. }}

Sky News is doubling down on the Parliament vs the People spin, so Johnsons election campaign soundbites have already started. They even tried to make out that the proroguing ceremony where many people protested, sang and held up "silenced" posters were MPs being "a complete shower" as opposed to being MPs fighting for democracy. But thats the right wing media for you, laughably biased. The pity is they are still able to twist peoples minds. I would burn the gutter press on the streets, actually I would like people to buy all the copies of the Tory gutter press in their local newsagents and burn them. If we all did this a lot of minds would stop being brainwashed.

Thinking about it though maybe people could crowdfund to have the money to buy the Daily Mail around the country newsagents during the election campaign, it wouldn't be illegal to buy them, and they could be binned. A bit like a Led by Donkeys campaign stops the lies.

{{ Sadly I think its too late for that Figg- the majorty of UK media is right wing- even in Scotland where for a long time now we have had a centre left government with majority support, our press is still overwhelmingly Tory supporting (mainly because a lot of our press ultimately, regardless of 'scottish' branding, comes out of London).

Corbyn's problem is the same one he has had since the referendum result was announced- a sizeable chunk of his own voters voted leave.
And worse for Labour they were nearly all in their English heartlands- working class communities, particualry in the Midlands and North of England.

With Scottish Labour dead in the water, Wales not returning enough seats to secure an election win Corbyn is effectively relying upon English votes to make him PM.

And if those leave voting Labour voters dont think Corbyn is serious about leaving the EU then there is a good chance Labour will lose a lot of those votes in an election in favour of pro-Brexit parties.
And without those english seats Corbyn has no chance at all of winning an election, not when you factor in what will probably be a disatrous Scottish Labour showing, and its not expected to be strong in Wales either.

Corbyn is, and has been, stuck between a rock and a hard place.

If he backs remain and a 2nd referendum in which Labour firmly position themselves as a remain party, then he will steal back remain votes from the lib dems and appease many in his own party, but he greatly risks losing more labour leave voters than he gains labour remain voters by such a move given so many leave voters are in labour seats.

If he backs making a new deal with the EU and campaigns for leaving on that instead of remain then he will piss off a lot in his own party and he will lose remain voting Labour voters to the lib dems and other no brexit parties, but he will probably keep hold of a larger chunk of the labour leave voters. But he would probaly also find it as hard as May to get his own party to support his leave deal through the House if they back remain.

It's this dilemna which in part explains Corbyn's reluctance to ever come down clearly as a leaver or remainer.
But that lack of clarity is what has cost them at previous elections and in the continuing polling. }}

Petty wrote:But most of his party say they will campaign to remain. And Corbyn? Incredibly he won't say if he will campaign to leave on his own deal, or to remain. Or that his own party will even campaign for their own deal!  Thats masterlevel fence sitting that is!

I think the art of politics has always involved fence sitting, but that works better when there is basically just one fence  dividing two yards. You'd ride the fence to the last minute, and when you were finally forced to make a stand you'd jump down into whichever yard held the most folks as if you'd been there all along.
But now everything is so fractured and the yards are so small that successful politicians are finding they need to sit on more than one fence at a time  {{ and that requires a really big ass! }}

{{{ Out of the two options Boris is floating for replacing the NI backstop, which I mentioned previously somewhere - a NI only backstop with more direct influence over it for the NI Assembly, or a foodstuffs only cutom zone with the EU, with food checked same as livestock currently is going between mainland UK and NI- one of them has been shot down by the NI unionist parties already, particualry the DUP.

The backstop idea, which was in three of May's attempted bills which failed to pass, seems to be still off the table for Unionists.

"I think that this idea that you have a Northern Ireland-only backstop where you have a trade border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Great Britain is simply a non-runner." - DUP

So that leaves the foodstuffs idea - which is fine, should be workable as one for livestck already exists- problem is it only covers foodstuffs and livestock. Yes, thats a majority of goods that travel back and forth but not by a long shot all of it, not to mention more importantly people.
If there is no border infrastructure how do you stop people either coming to the UK, getting a ferry to NI and just walking into the EU, or the other way going to Southern Ireland from the EU and just walking into the UK?

A foodstuffs deal only solves a part of the problem, not all of it. And I supsect not anywhere enough to satisy the EU that the intergitry of their borders and of the single market is secure. }}

{{Very true Dave- though with Corbyn his fence is getting smaller and smaller and the room to jump off narrower and narrower- but I suspect if he doesn't jump soon his fence will collapse from under him altogether anyway. }}

That's interesting that nearly all media in Britain is conservative; we have the opposite here. Are you saying they are the equivalent of Fox news or do they use a more reasoned approach?

{{ They are British, so its sometimes subtler than Fox news, or atleast they can hide agenda behind agendas better to influence opinion, but they are also often tabloids like thew Daily Mail- so its often crasser and more direct and brutal too.

Theres also an odd thing with newspapers owned and based in London but which have a Scottish edition- often the headlines of the two editions will contradict each other! And in some cases such as famously the Scottish Sun, they broke with their Tory masters to support the SNP. Officially they are now Tories again, but the Scottish edition is noticably fairer and often sometimes outright pro-SNP still. Its all about sales for them, and with shrinking readership for print media they can't cater to Tories like they can in England. }}

Cummings and co are now saying they wont release the private messages about the proroguing of Parliament. I think they will be made to.

oh I do hope so!

I hope so too, it will prove they actually lied to the Queen.

{{ Labours messy position is only getting messier.

Tom Watson, Deputy Labour leader has completely contradicted Corbyn's stance.

First this is apparently Corbyn's position-

A general election.
A further referendum with a credible leave option.
The Labour manifesto will promise to reach a 'better Brexit deal' but will not commit to either leave or remain or to what this better deal is or how it would pass the House.
Whether Labour would then campaign on their deal to leave in a referendum, or against it and for remain is still an unknown as too is whether Labour MP's will or will not be whipped or allowed to campaign according to their own positions

Clear? No, nor is anyone else. And as an election message its a confused mess. Especially when Boris's message will probably be something as simple and as blunt as "Brexit- do or die!"

Watson's position is-

He and other shadow cabinet ministers will campaign to remain. He says there is no such thing as a good Brexit and Labour must have an unequivical position on it and that postion needs to be remaining.
So no new deal, no promise of a credible leave option, no general election- just a referendum on leave or remain with Labour backing remain.

Certainly thats a crystal clear message compared to his leaders- but its also almost at every single point completely at odds with his leader too.

Not only is there this clash at the top it seems there is some dissent over the union positions too, with Watson saying this-

"I believe we should advocate for remain. That is what the overwhelming majority of Labour party members, MPs and trade unions believe."

But, Mark Serwotka, the general secretary of the PCS union, said, "I think Tom Watson's intervention is irresponsible and not what Labour communities need."

The unions it seems say they don't want a no deal Brexit, but like Crobyn are also still trying to hedge their bets and keep everyone on-sdie by not picking one side over the other. It can't last as these fractures at the top of the party are showing.}}

{{ Well this I have to admit is a surprise!

'Boris Johnson’s suspension of the UK Parliament is unlawful, Scotland’s highest civil court has ruled.
A panel of three judges at the Court of Session found in favour of a cross-party group of politicians who were challenging the prime minister's move.
The judges said the PM was attempting to prevent Parliament holding the government to account ahead of Brexit.
The UK government said it will appeal against the ruling to the Supreme Court in London.....n a summary of their findings, the Court of Session judges said they were unanimous in their belief that Mr Johnson was motivated by the "improper purpose of stymying Parliament".
They added: "The Court will accordingly make an Order declaring that the Prime Minister's advice to HM the Queen and the prorogation which followed thereon was unlawful and is thus null and of no effect."- BBC

Now it won't take immediate effect because the government has immediatly appealed it to the English Supreme Court to try to get it overturned, and that doesn't come back to sit until Tuesday. But as the law stands in our UNITED Kingdom (oh the irony!) the Scottish court ruling is the law of the land- Boris gave the Queen unlawful advice!
Her Majesty will not be amused!

'Lord Brodie (one of the three judges), said: "This was an egregious case of a clear failure to comply with generally accepted standards of behaviour of public authorities.
"It was to be inferred that the principal reasons for the prorogation were to prevent or impede Parliament holding the executive to account and legislating with regard to Brexit, and to allow the executive to pursue a policy of a no-deal Brexit without further Parliamentary interference."
And Lord Drummond Young said that the UK government had failed to show a valid reason for the prorogation, adding: "The circumstances, particularly the length of the prorogation, showed that the purpose was to prevent such scrutiny. "The only inference that could be drawn was that the UK government and the prime minister wished to restrict Parliament."

The judges will release their full findings on Friday.

So unless its overturned by the English Supreme Court parliament could be back next wednesday!}}