UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

So are you saying its a cunning plan to push through May's deal through the backdoor?- Figg

{{Basically yes. Realistically its still the only deal on the table. All Boris needs is a few tweaks to the backstop- a get out clause, a time limit and maybe call it something else, tie a bow round it and present it to the House with only days to go to no deal and everyone panicking and scrambling for any way out.

Boris appears to have no plan of his own, I don't see how you renegotiate the entirety of the withdrawal deal in the time remaining, it took 3 years to craft after all and he has so far at least not shown a hint that they have a credible idea or solution to replace the backstop let alone the rest of the deal.

Malick I know the feeling. But I honestly dont think Boris is trying for no deal at least- but that gamble might yet go horribly wrong and it might happen by accident, but I don't think its the aim at least. }}

Here is his interview where he basically says  he has strengthened the UK's position to get a deal by forcing the Government to a No Deal. Genius.

I don't trust anything Johnson says, he is a liar, he lies very well to everyone and all he wants is to keep his job. But I think it could go two ways,
I think he is playing everyone off against each other, using the ERG to gain power he needs to keep them sweet until he can shaft them, same with the EU, same with the kippers/brexit populace. He will try to fool the ERG long enough to try to rehash May's soft brexit deal until they cotton on, and then he will try to fool the EU he is serious about no deal until they cotton on they are getting soft brexit, and he will try to fool the kipper/brexit populace that he is giving them their unicorns until they cotton on that they are actually getting soft brexit. This of course would please Corbyn and so his enemies will be trounced. he will be seen as the 'saviour' of brexit and win a stonking general election.
Or,
I think he will trounce all his enemies and force through a no deal so it pleases the ERG and the kipper brexitlunatics, he will be seen as the 'saviour' of brexit, and win a stonking general election.

mass protests today

https://www.anothereurope.org/

{{ Not just protests going on Figg - but a warning of what could come in Glasgow yesterday.

'Riot police, a helicopter and dog units were called in when an Irish Unity march in Govan was met by hundreds of "disruptive" counter demonstrators.
Roads were blocked in what police described as "significant disorder" on Friday evening.
The Irish Unity march, led by the James Connolly Republican Flute Band, set off from Elder Park, Govan, at 18:30 but was soon met by a counter demonstration of "several hundred people" from loyalist groups.'- BBC





And that's Glasgow, not even Ireland. And without a border involved.
Anyone who thinks the Irish issue couldn't flare right back to violence very fast is not paying attention to history, or current events. }}

To be fair, the people involved in the incident are dunderheids who go out looking for fights with other dunderheids.

{{{ True. But then dunderheids, numpties, bams and neds have never been in short supply- it's why we have so many words for them.    }}

Next week is going to be interesting to say the least. people seem to be still at the funny placard stage and not yet fully enraged, but it could go Hong Kong and things could get violent if things continue and strikes and the unions get involved, it could be a Winter of discontent if Johnson forces a no deal brexit.

Door-Matt Hancock. Hypocrisy at its finest.

{{ Interesting if completely bonkers weekend in Brexit news!

First up the interesting- the opposition plan (and I do wish the BBC would stop referring to them as the rebel alliance, I keep expecting Vader to turn up to crush them), their plan is still to try the legislative route, which at that stage is even more risky than before but shows two things- one that everyone bar Corbyn thinks he's unelectable, even in the House let alone the country, and secondly that everyone bar Corbyn would rather not have a general election right now if they can avoid it. But for reasons I'm about to explain, I think we might get one anyway (if Corbyn can succeed in his increasingly unlikely task).

So the plan is to use an emergency procedure to amend a bill to that could be debated that day, with Speaker approval- which they will 99.9% likely get. And the 0.01% is for the likelihood Boris will have a sniper shoot him first.

Once they get it debated it goes to a vote- that will need Tory rebels to agree to, they did last time on an identical bill to stop May going for a No Deal outcome, then it goes to the Lords.
This is where the first really messy bit is after the messy bit of getting the Tory votes, and that's stopping the Lords filibustering and delaying the thing until Parliament closes, at which point the bill is officially dead and they'd need to bring it back starting from scratch when Parliament returns after conference season.

But lets assume Corbyn gets the votes he needs for the bill to pas, it goes to the Lords and gets approved and returns to the House in time to be passed into law.

What then?

Well that's where things go from interesting to nuts.

Gove, the minister in charge of organising Brexit says the govenrment might just ignore it!

'Tory minister Michael Gove has refused to say whether the government would abide by legislation designed to stop the UK leaving the EU without a deal.'

Just to be clear here the Tories, the party of Law and Order, are threatening to act above the law. I'm not even sure, and probably no one else is, what you do if the government simply ignores a law passed democratically in the House. Its never come up before.
I suppose in theory you arrest the govenrment for breaking the law! That'd be interesting!

But it may not come to that as rounding up those Tory votes, even the rebel ones for the fairly uncontentious act of voting for a bill that prevents a no deal and which they voted for previously, may prove a lot harder than it was last time.

Why?

Because Boris is now threatening that any Tory who votes against no deal will not only have the whip withdrawn but be deselected. Which means they are no longer a member of the Tory party, cannot stand at the next election as a Tory and will receive no more help, or more importantly funding, from Conservative HQ.
In short for most Tory rebels Boris just gave them a choice- vote with your conviction and lose your job, or vote against it and keep it.

'"Any Conservative MP who does this will have the whip withdrawn and will not stand as Conservative candidates in an election."
Rebelling will be classed as voting against the government or abstaining.'

So now, assuming Corbyn gets  the Tory rebels to vote with him even under this threat, and gets it passed, and gets it through the lords in time, and gets it made law- if he somehow does that- and if the govenrment finds it cant ignore the law without being arrested and has to obey it - then finally, finally Corbyn wins and stops no deal.

Except I'd bet a 100 buckies if Corbyn does achieve all that and get it passed Boris will simply dissolve Parliament altogether and call a general election. He doesn't want one right now- right after Brexit on the heels of triumphantly delivering a deal (May's one warmed up) is the preferred timetable but he will do it if he has to, banking on the unelectablility of Corbyn to see him returned as PM.

But on the Tory side this all makes me more convinced my hunch about what Boris is actually up to is true, because this, this is theatre. }}

love the way he was drowned out by people shouting "STOP THE COUP" he didn't look too cocksure today did he.  When the chips are down that coward will run for the hills. So if he cant get his way he will shut down parliament and sack anyone who defies him, very democratic. NOT!

Some come Guy Fawkes night, has everyone got their Boris Effigy for the bonfire? Maybe some V masks and capes to go along with it?

We've drawn a lot of comparisons between Boris and Trump, but do Boris supporters believe he can do no wrong the way Trumpsters do?

{{{ I dont think they are that alike really - Boris is a politician, almost since childhood, he is clever, exceptionally well educated, he is making massive gambles right now, but they are at least I think educated gambles. But he at least is playing for an end game- Trump has no end game beyond demanding he be hailed as the greatest President of all time.

Where there is a comparison is that Trump, Boris and Corbyn are in the positions they are in for the same reasons. They are all there on the back of a previously small, hardcore more extreme faction of their own party, which then took over and usurped and made themselves the new norm.

With the Republicans it was the Tea Party.
The Democrats are currently trying to stop a similar take over from the faction of their party headed by 'The Squad'.
Corbyn is in on the back of what was once Labour's extreme left, the Trotskyites and Marxists, the redistributors of wealth and the nationalisers of all industry and services.
And Boris (though he is only pretending to be one) is heading what was previously the Tories small extreme right wing faction represented by the more right wing members of the ERG like Gove and Mogg.
In all cases they took their factions to the top, supplanting the centre ground moderates who came before them and taking over their respective parties, moving them for the centre ever outward.

And all, regardless of differences in policies, aims, allegiances and leanings did so on the back of a feeling of growing resentment at the massive wealth inequality, falling living standards, and a sense an elite class was taking the rest of us for mugs and for a ride.

The driving force behind this shift has all been the same- who has benefited: right or left, egotists and the overly ambitious beyond their skill level is a result of the abandoning of middle ground politics that people felt was failing to help them, improve their lives, or provide hope of a better future for their children. And a definite sense that the pursuits of the moderates, globalisation in particular, was far more to the ruling classes benefit than it was the majority of the people, who suffered as much as they benefited, and usually a lot more than they benefited. }}

{{ Well today Parliament fights back the first of the votes to stop Boris is today.
But heres a bizarre twist to the whole thing- assuming Corbyn succeeds and gets this through and stops no deal- Boris can veto it!

And ironically not under UK law but under EU law.

You see all he has to do, mad as this sounds, is sit on the legislation once passed until the EU summit in October at which all 28 EU members would need to vote to agree to an extension delaying the leave date- and here's the twist, the UK is still one of those 28 members.
Boris can veto the UK's own position at it, blocking the EU from accepting it and leaving oct 31st as the legal leave date come what may. }}

..and obviously he will do this, like a trapped rat fighting for its life all the more vicious. At this stage in the game there will be no level he will not stoop to, no dirty trick he will not play, no betrayal or disloyalty. All he will be thinking of will be his job as PM, nothing else will matter.

Good analysis of Boris and Trump, Petty.

{{ Don't expect big news on the vote until this evening-  the actual debate wont start until the normal business scheduled for today is done, it should happen about 7pm here, but that debate can and probably will fill the full 3 hours it can take before a vote must be called.
Then we will know if Corbyn has got control of the House business and can table a motion to block no deal and force the government to extend if they have not got a deal ready by oct 31t.

Sone Tories have already come out to say they will vote against their own government, despite the threat of deselection.
These include Rory Stewart who stood for the leadership against Boris.
And Sam Gyimah told the BBC-

'he has accepted he will be deselected and expelled from the party when he votes against the government to block no-deal - but he still intends to stand in the next election.
"The party has left me," the former minister tells BBC 2's Politics Live. "We have got a Conservative government now that is playing fast and lose around prorogation, not being clear on whether it will uphold the rule of law or not and threatening candidates with deselection. I think that is not the Conservatism I believe in."'

At this point everything is up in the air and the whole thing on a knife edge.
If it goes through I expect Boris will call a general election- but under the fixed term act he cant just do it himself- he needs Parliament to agree to it by vote.
Labour have been shouting for a general election but fear this one is a trap- they agree to an election, then Boris sets the election date to after October 31st as he does get to pick when and in the meantime Brexit happens on no deal terms anyway.

So if Boris does try to get a general election before Brexit it will have to come with some sort of amendment to it ensuring it is held before the Brexit leave date, Oct 14th being the date of the moment, and binding Boris and the government legally to that date.
Otherwise I don't think the House will give him his general election.

Far as I can tell if the votes to block no deal win, and votes against a general election being held before oct 31st lose then Boris's only options left are all super nuclear ones- like vetoing the UK Parliaments position at the EU summit, or ignoring the law passed to stop no deal.
Its even possible he could try forcing a general election by holding a vote of no confidence in his own govenrment and daring the others to vote against it, thus declaring him competent. If he got a vote of no confidence in himself then madly the dissolving of Parliament happens automatically and there has to be a general election, regardless of the fixed term act.
But in short the options narrow to the increasingly severe and insane.}}

{{ While all this is going on the Scottish Court of Session is currently hearing a legal challenge to Boris closing Parliament.

Its happening in the highest Scottish court because the Highest English one, and therefore considered the highest UK one, is currently on holiday.

If the Scottish Court finds Boris has acted illegally- Blue you'll find the technical side interesting probably, the argument, as the Queen is above the law, is not that she acted improbably, but that the Privvy Council did, in that the advise they gave to the Queen was unlawful- ie to close Parliament as Boris requested- anyhow, if Boris is found to have acted unlawfully then he cant close Parliament, it will then be challenged by the govt in the English Highest Court, and they will either say yup, the Scottish Court were right, or nope we think they got it wrong and strike it down- but until they decide that the ruling from the Scottish Court of Session whichever way it is, will stand. And that ruling may well come today. }}

{{ Oh if I forgot with all that going on this week, someone remind me I really need to write a piece about Dominic Cummings, Ive not mentioned him so far because its been hard to tell what he has been doing exactly, but things are surfacing now which gives better indication.
Cummings is a very interesting character indeed, he is the shadow behind Boris, the chief strategist, the personal adviser and keeper of secrets, he is the wizard behind the curtain of Boris's rise. And among the many interesting things about him is the fact he is not even a Tory. At least he has no party membership. Cummings has a personal agenda that I believe could yet prove to be the deciding factor in the final outcome, for better or worse, which would be clearer which if his motives ever become any less hard to pin down, its like trying to nail jelly to a wall. }}

{{{ I swear this just popped up on the BBC newsfeed right after I made the above post! Handy for some background to Cummings.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000744y

And if that doesn't work overseas, or you are Dave and live on a farm and have to fight the sea and use a tin can for internet connection, here's another piece in written form! (but not as in-depth or biographical as the audio one) }}

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49101464

{{ Remember Yellowhammer? The govenrment dossier of what they think will happen in a no deal? Well... }}

'Neurologist Dr David Nicholl contributed to Operation Yellowhammer, the government's plan for a no-deal Brexit. He warns that the government expects a higher mortality rate if the UK leaves the EU without a deal....“The government is stockpiling body bags for the risk of an increased mortality rate. Those who support no-deal Brexit need to be aware what level of harm they are willing to accept”

{{ Tory Philip Lee is a Tory no more! He has resigned from the party an crossed the floor, well diagonaled it, to join the Lib Dems.
The most important bit here being the government just lost it majority. It only had a majority of 1. Without DUP help now they are a dead government with no working majority to pass legislation.

Here the resignation letter-}}

So does he remain in Parliament, just switching parties? Does this mean a new government must be formed? By who?