UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ Well, well. I was wrong. Very wrong.
Boris has taken a much bigger gamble than I predicted, much, much bigger.
Rather than waiting for Labour to attempt to table legislation then calling a general election Boris has opted to go the nuclear route straight off!

He is going to suspend Parliament!

'The Queen will be asked by the government to suspend Parliament just days after MPs return to work in September - and only a few weeks before the Brexit deadline.
BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg says it will make way for Boris Johnson's new administration to hold a Queen's Speech - laying out the government's plans - on 14 October.
But it means MPs are unlikely to have time to pass any laws that could stop the prime minister taking the UK out of the EU without a deal on 31 October.'

This throws Corbyns vote of no-confidnece make me PM plan back in to the ring as pretty much the only remaining option to stop Boris.

'Tory backbencher and Remain campaigner Dominic Grieve called it "an outrageous act", and warned it could lead to a vote of no confidence in Mr Johnson, adding: "This government will come down."
"If the prime minister persists with this and doesn't back off, then I think the chances are that his administration will collapse.
"There is plenty of time to do that if necessary [and] I will certainly vote to bring down a Conservative government that persists in a course of action which is so unconstitutional."
Labour deputy leader Tom Watson tweeted that the move was an "utterly scandalous affront to our democracy".
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said MPs must come together to stop the plan next week, or "today will go down in history as a dark one indeed for UK democracy".


But I think the oddest thing here at least, as the most outrageous is Boris is actually going to shut down parliament to stop it having its say, is that the government are claiming this is juts normal business, what any new government does to hold a Queens Speech and the timing of it is purely coincidental!

Seems this fight is going down to the constitutional wire.}}

HOLY FUCKING CRAP!!!!

I literally don't have words for this madness.

Mrs Figg wrote:I literally don't have words for this madness.

I think Shakespeare wrote a farce along these lines.

I hope this shit goes V for Vendetta.

Petition to stop the Tory dictator proroguing parliament

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

the petition is now at

1 million and counting

{{ Sadly I dont think it will matter Figg. By all accounts I can tell its not technically against any rules. Where it is on slightly dodgy ground is that its unprecedented.
I joked earlier about how Boris and co were claiming it had nothing to with Brexit and was just normal business of a new government. But actually its clear now why that obvious untruth is what they are saying- I'm betting its what all official documents and plans for this say too. Because the only grounds legally they could be challenged is that he is using the process for a means other than intended by precedent, as without a written constitution our system works on precedent- ie its just to open a new Parliament. Not Boris  using it to close down parliament.
Problem is if everything the govenrment says about it, and every official document says the same- its just to do the Queens Speech, no mention of Brexit- then there isn't a legal case to bring as there is no evidence they intend it to be about shutting down debate on Brexit.
Their line- its just business as usual might be ludicrous on the face of it, but legally its probably sound.
And the Queens part in it is unassailable as she is technically above the law, its her law, her police, her courts, her judges and her prisons and the Royal Prerogative cannot be legally challenged.
Blue might have more thoughts on that.
But my feeling on can Boris get away with doing this? Is yes, he probably can.
The more important question now is what does Parliament choose to do about it? }}}}

{{ Ruth Davidson has resigned as Scottish Tory Leader.

That's the Tories best asset in Scotland gone. People here who went Tory last time didn't vote Tory, they voted for Ruth Davidsons Tories- at last election you had to use a microscope on the Scottish Tory leaflets that came through the door to find the word 'Conservative'- it was a just a huge picture of a smiling Ruth Davidson.
I think this will lose them some of the 13 seats in Scotland they won at the last election down in no part to the personality and image presented by Davidson (an idea of which is the fact the Daily Record today remembered her not as a Tory but as the 'kick boxing married lesbian mother'- that image defined her far more than Tory ever did, and any seats that they do hold onto will probably be just those seeking somewhere to put a Leave vote.

It was pretty inevitable she would go once Boris did this. She has always opposed him leading the party, she supported everyone but him in the leadership campaign, and she made it very clear when he became PM she would only support Brexit with a deal, not no deal.

For Boris however this is a big and popular in the party thorn out his side.
But putting a Boris lackey in charge of the Scottish Tories would be electoral disaster for them here I'd say so the choice of new leader will be interesting. }}

It seems to me that Boris is indeed using Trump's playbook: doing things that nobody knows how to stop because they are technically not against the rules, it's just that nobody else ever dared doing something so blatantly unethical.

Like refusing to divest in all his businesses that could clearly be affected by presidential policy. Congress had long ago made rules against holding business interests themselves, but never thought to do the same for the presidency because it was such an obvious breach of conduct for a post so open to public scrutiny. Then along comes Trump....

Quote from The Handmaids Tale


"That was when they suspended the Constitution. They said it would be temporary. There wasn't even any rioting in the streets.

People stayed home at night, watching television, looking for some direction. There wasn't even an enemy you could put your finger on."

{{ Corbyn continues to prove that if there is a fence he will find a way to fit a seat to it and sit on it!

'Clarifying' Labours position on a 2nd Scottish independence referendum-if you've forgotten he and the deputy of the Labour party utterly undermined the Scottish Labour position by saying they would not oppose a 2nd referendum- Corbyn said that Labour opposed the idea, and would not grant it in the first years of a new Labour government, but if there was a clear mandate shown for it by Scotland after that they wouldn't block it either.
By the end of the day Corbyn had refined that down to it would not be a Labour priority at the start of its term but it would not oppose one - no mention of either a time period or a mandate (as the SNP already clearly have one) and Corbyn needs their votes going ahead which probably explains dropping those criteria.

But basically his position amounts to yes and no, yes but not right now. Fence sitting. Again! The man is incapable of making a choice or having a single firm position on anything. }}

{{ I think I might have worked out what Boris is up to.

Here's my thinking, its based on a few things.

Firstly Boris is not a Leaver.
He is a Leaver by conscious political choice as a tactical move on his road to becoming PM. He is not a Mogg or a Gove, he is not a true believer in Brexit.

Secondly in Davidsons resignation speech she said she asked Boris eye to eye if he was serious about trying to get a deal, and he assured her he was, and she believed him.
I believe her in this case, I think he was telling the truth.
He is well aware even in a best case scenario short term at least things will not be good in the event of  no deal. We know this because his own government report on it says so. And Boris does not want a short premiership for which he is remembered as a hated figure who brought the country to its knees.

Thirdly the EU and the UK have agreed to step up negotiations and will meet from now on twice a week to negotiate.

Lastly middle of Oct the EU meet for a Council at which a deal will either be agreed and sent to Parliament to be agreed on, or it will be clear there is no deal.

So what is Boris up to with all this closing parliament malarkey?

He's getting a deal.
More than that he is getting May's deal, with a few changes which have long been negotiable.

What will those changes be- my guess is a means of the UK leaving the backstop at any time of its choosing, putting the onus on us however to come up with an alternative solution if we do so. A time limit on how long the backstop can be applied- prob at least 5 years more likely 10. Some other more minor issues around the reach of the European court over EU citizens in the UK and on trade, probably around services.

But basically at heart 90% of it will be May's rejected deal.

So how does he get it passed when its been rejected soundly and when Mogg and co and Farage and his lot will scream foul?

Well first obstacle is he can't bring May's deal back to the House- Speaker Bercow made it clear last time if there were not substantial differences it would not bring the same bill back again after so many rejections.
But guess when you can bring a bill back, even if its been in the house and rejected loads of times?
When you have a new Parliament. The Queens speech resets the counter.
Boris can bring Mays deal back with a few minor alterations and no one can stop him as it counts as the first time again in a new session of Parliament.

The next obvious obstacle is how do you get it passed the House this time?

The answer there is you increase the catastrophe curve to its peak in the lead up to the council meeting.
With very little time between the meeting and the leave date, less than 2 weeks if Boris brings back May's deal with just enough changes to let those who voted down May pretend its not the same thing, then he is gambling he will get the votes for it in comparison to the only other option left by then - no deal.

Shutting down parliament does two things, though I suspect his hand was forced on it with the timing and he had to do it earlier than he had intended- it closes down the legislative route the opposition were taking to stop him, letting him play out his plan in peace, and it up's the panic and so the willingness to cling to whatever he brings back from the EU.

There are already rumblings its working, some remain opposition are already publicly voicing the belief that maybe May's deal was not as bad as it could have been after all.

But there's another side to why do it now I think.

It wouldn't have worked before.

Had Boris tried to bring May's plan back, even with the changes to the backstop I mentioned, he would first have found it hard to get it back to the House as its 90% May's plan again tweaked, and secondly the hysteria and fear of a no deal would not be at the necessary fever pitch for it to seem like a life raft in the circumstances, the Moggs and Farages would have had time and the air to shout loudly against it.
Now they will be drowned out with constitutional fervour and plans to stop no deal, and outrage and Boris plan will seem like a way out the madness.
More so however it outmanoeuvres them too and the entire ERG- by doing it this way they will back him, believing he doesn't believe in a deal and will take the UK out without one come the 31st Oct, and they will happily back him and go along with it right up till he strikes the deal at the Council Meeting, by which time they, along with everyone else will have little time to oppose it or cry foul, and the votes of that group of Tory MP's is not enough on its own to stop the deal passing the House anyway if Boris can panic the ret into signing up (and he is probably banking on Corbyn continuing to threaten a general election or legislative route to take the PM off him as a means to whip his waverers in his party into line on top of no deal fear).
Mogg and the ERG are largely responsible for May's failure- Boris seems to have found a way to make them his allies- until its too late for them to realise they never were. Keep your friends close but your enemies closer.

Boris needs his timing to be good here- he needs to keep a lid on Parliament till the EU meeting yet stoke the flames as much as possible under Parliament that he really is trying to leave without a deal and is not interested in a new one, whilst not letting the ERG wing get wind of what he is actually negotiating- Mays deal warmed up. And he needs the House and country to be at no deal fever pitch, all the better for his triumphant return with his 'new deal' delivered in the nick of time to save the day - also meaning Parliament will have no time to do anything other than grasp it or go over the cliff edge.

He is aided in this by the fact next month is conference season and Parliament closes for it anyway- so closing Parliament now shuts down any realistic immediate threat of stopping him, by the time they can there is very little time before conference season begins and the House closes once again- then when they all come back its the week running up to the EU council meeting- and the House will be so close to it they will have to wait for the outcome of it to debate it, effectively making that week redundant- leaving less than two weeks after it to either agree to Boris's deal if he gets one, which he probably will as the sort of tweaks I am speaking about would be the sort thing the EU would have been open to negotiating all along anyway-  or we crash out.

And Boris reckons they will vote for the plan if that's the choices, in the by then broiling cauldron of no deal looming hysteria. }}

Hmmm.... I see what you're suggesting and it actually seems to make some sense
(at least compared to all the other madness going on )
But wouldn't you think that all the public outrage, protests and petitions over the "proroguery" would significantly weaken his hand in negotiations with...well just about everybody, but the EU in particular?  
As a rule, I think most negotiators prefer to talk with people who actually speak for the majority of their constituency.
Or would you say that was just a miscalculation on Boris' part?

{{ Not a miscalculation, a calculated gamble based on two factors- that the EU dont want no deal as it would negatively impact on EU business that do business here and with UK companies, and secondly that what he is actually going to get from them- some relatively minor alterations to the terms of the backstop, not its utter removal and a ripping up of the withdrawal agreement as he currently insists he will, is something it will not be very hard for the EU, faced with the no deal alternative to comprise on, regardless of how they may feel about they got there. }}

Not a miscalculation, a calculated gamble based on two factors

OK, a calculated gamble then, but only time will tell if it's a miscalculation. I'm betting it is. Even if he pulls off the play you're suggesting, I'm thinking he'll have burned a lot of friends and potential allies along the way. He put the Queen in an awkward spot as we were talking about earlier, right? It sounds from the news like there are some prominent Tories who are angry enough to defect. True? Has anything been heard from the House of Lords? I can't imagine they're terribly happy right now either.

So even suppose Boris pulls off this card trick, does he expect that everybody in Parliament will slap him on the back and say "Well done!" while the protesters in the street turn to celebrating? I still don't see how he could possibly win the PR game after all this. Any thoughts?

{{ A lot of folk arent happy, including the Lords- the Tory Whip in the Lords resigned over Boris' move, he lost Davidson in Scotland and infuriated the entire remain wing of his own party.
Its all hugely risky- but that depends on what stakes your playing for.

Boris is only playing for 1- to be and remain PM.

To do that he needs to deliver Brexit, realistically with a deal, if he does that many of those currently outraged voices opposed to no deal on his benches will simply fall back into line.
He will sell himself to the Brexit voting electorate as the man who delivered Brexit- even if its really just May's deal thinly disguised and repackaged, and as the man who out negotiated the EU.

Post Brexit all Boris needs is to hoover up those Tory votes, add the Brexit party votes to his tally as having delivered Brexit the Brexit party will largely cease to exist, or if it does still stand saying Boris's deal is not true Brexit the wind will be taken out their sails and the public tired of the whole thing wont want the debate reopened.  Plus the remain vote will be split- Corbyn will still be toxic to most, the lib Dems, Greens and  in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments nationalist parties will do better out of it, all of which will mean the remain vote gets spread across potentially at least 3-4 parties, while all the Brexit votes will have only one realistic place to go post Brexit- the Tories and the man who delivered Brexit, Boris. You dont have to deliver anything like a majority of the public to be PM, just more than the other guy.}}

{{ You know this is all oddly reminiscent of an episode of Yes Minister, the xmas special in fact Party Games in which Jim Hacker goes from Minister of a Department to Prime Minister.

In short in order to be PM he needs a public victory before hand.
And the EU provide one in their attempts to reclassify and standardise sausages across the EU- unfortunately the British variety having too little meat in them didn't qualify, and were to be rebranded 'high fat offal tubes'.
In fact they weren't wanting to do this at all, but Hacker uses the outrage they would to stoke up the public, making barn storming Churchillian speeches about how he will never let the Eurocrats take the Great British sausage. When in fact he and Sir Humphrey have already resolved the issue behind the scenes.
But Hacker doesn't tell the press that- he tells them the opposite, that he cant see how to stop it, that it's all the fault of the EU who wont budge, before finally giving them the triumphant- 'Hacker saves the British Sausage' headline - sealing the popularity he needs to ride the election to PM. }}

So are you saying its a cunning plan to push through May's deal through the backdoor?

Should I still be angry/annoyed about a no deal Brexit? If it does happen it will likely be a disaster for the UK (and probably Ireland as well) from an economic point of view (at the very least)...but after 3 1/2 years of this endless shite and arguments I'm simply utterly fed up with Brexit, it's hard to give a shit anymore, I just want this to end one way or another.