UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

The danger now is allowing Farage to triumph once again. If he wins again its game over. Tom Watson says Labour is a remain party, but it clearly is ruled by someone on the same side as Farage. whether he likes it or not Labour is seen as a brexit party and anyone who votes Labour is giving Farage a free pass. May and Corbyn are the wrong people at the wrong time. Just when we need competence and flexibility we get two equally stubborn intransigent duffers.

{{ Here your WTF is going on? update!

It might seem like nothing is happening regards Brexit as the clock ticks down, bu that's because nothing is happening. Well nothing productive, useful, fruitful, or in fact directly dealing with either the issues of Brexit, or as far as I can tell running the country (which probably means we will do all right for a bit and probably helps explain the stable economy and job numbers- the ciivl service are running the country without the annoying interference of politicians!).

What our political class have actually been doing is avoiding the issues by naval gazing, squabbling among themselves, time wasting, and playing musical leaders chairs.

So the biggest waste of time has been the cross party talks, today, after six weeks of negotiation they have announced the two sides have agreed on absolutely bugger all, the talks are ending and now various things will be put to Parliament, including May's deal, somehow, again.

Now her deal is expected to fall on its arse again, after which she has now announced she will leave office immediately if it does and there will be a new leader.
So far Boris has thrown his shaggy head into the ring, which is hardly surprising has his ambition to be PM has been well known since he was a schoolboy.

So that means a leadership election for the Tories, and a new PM for the country. But that takes time and that clock is still ticking.

The European election are almost upon us, elections we were not supposed to be taking part in as we should have left by now. But we haven't and we are.
And if Parliament still cant back any single proposal for how to Leave, then the only remaining options are to revoke the withdrawal agreement and there is no Brexit, or the clock finally runs out and its a default No Deal Brexit and WTO trade rules. }}

if the Farage party triumph again it will be because remainers have not fought hard enough or taken the loons seriously enough. Just listening to the angry yet totally politically ignorant brexiteers on the James O'Brien radio show just confirms that referendums are a really bad idea.

Once again, thanks for the distillation Petty!

Petty wrote:And if Parliament still cant back any single proposal for how to Leave, then the only remaining options are to revoke the withdrawal agreement and there is no Brexit, or the clock finally runs out and its a default No Deal Brexit and WTO trade rules.

Based on the general dysfunction so far, at this point, I guess I'd have to bet on the clock running out without any action taken at all. And then, if this were a TV serial, there'll probably be another season of drama and fingerpointing to follow before anybody starts working on a solution.

Got blocked from posting on Huffington Post for criticising Farage and brexit loons. That's how we live now. The right wing media is everywhere.

Congratulations Figgy! That's even better than when you were banned from the Tolkein-Site-which-shall-not-be-named!

There's story about the Edinburgh McDonalds not selling shakes so people wouldn't throw them at Farage has gotten some play over here. There's so many useful things we Yanks can learn from British politics!

David H wrote:Congratulations Figgy! That's even better than when you were banned from the Tolkein-Site-which-shall-not-be-named!

There's story about the Edinburgh McDonalds not selling shakes so people wouldn't throw them at Farage has gotten some play over here. There's so many useful things we Yanks can learn from British politics!

yeah by all accounts that's an actual true story. Tommy Robinson got milked and they don't want Farage to get the same treatment because it looks like he will be the next Prime Minister of the British Isles.

{{ My favourite Farage story is back when he had the first go with UKIP and decided to try campaigning in Scotland. In the end he had to run inside a building to hide from the angry crowds- and for some reason thought trying to hide in a pub was a good way to avoid crabbit Scots!!

"finally, the harassed and ill-prepared handful of officers were forced to push him back into the Canon's Gait, slamming its front doors shut, as the demonstrators chanted: "Nigel, you're a bawbag, Nigel you're a bawbag, na, na, na, hey!" with gusto."

  }}

{{ Heres the latest on Mays deal. She is bringing it back in the week starting the 3rd of June. And she says she will announce her departure afterwards, presumably win or lose.

May says in a Times interview today-

'she will "not be simply asking MPs to think again" on the same deal that they have repeatedly rejected.
Instead, the PM said she wanted them to consider a "new and improved deal with fresh pairs of eyes - and to give it their support."

So what will be new and improved?
Good question.
Its expected to contain extra provisions for the protection of workers rights, Id hazard at adding environmental standards in there too but that's more dodgy for the Tories as they want a trade deal with the US which is likely to include foodstuffs.
But that doesn't sound to me like anywhere near enough to shift the numbers on her deal.
Unless she has been doing some backdoor secret dealings around the backstop I don't see her being able to offer the DUP anything, explaining her attempts to woo labour votes.
But I think if there is to be something genuinely new on offer that might actually get votes, it could be a public confirmation vote. But it wont have a remain option.
That's my guess. }}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ Heres the latest on Mays deal. She is bringing it back in the week starting the 3rd of June.

And she says she will announce her departure afterwards, presumably win or lose.

my predictions,
The deal will fail, the Tories will be annihilated in the EU elections, she will go, Boris will become PM, he will go for a no deal brexit, they will ramp up no deal prep again and waste millions of quid, the brexit secretary will go for full-on no deal brexit to keep the ERG quiet, come October exactly the same state we are in now. don't know what happens after that...

I fully expect for the EU to kick us out. I expect that it will be nearly impossible for Parliament to agree on anything given the past 2 years and their continued lack of cohesion. I suspect Boris won't be PM if May goes, I think it will be someone less obviously ambitious. Mogg might try, but doubt he'll have any serious backing and quite likely just be standing for tactical reasons.

Once we are kicked out the country will begin to see job losses throughout, as companies move either entire business or move HQs (for tax reasons, of course) elsewhere. The UK will bend over backwards with anyone with any kind of trade deal, which means we will get the shittiest kind of deals. I expect the US to be the keystone of the UK's stratagem.

I expect there will be a huge split in both Tory and Labour. Lib Dems will continue to gain support (assuming they don't cock it up - I don't know enough about them to make any sort of predictions about their abilities other than when they had that so unsuccessful coalition). We will see a rise of UKip and similar parties/independents. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a number of violent clashes around building xenophobic tensions.

Meanwhile in Scotland, the SNP will be putting the case forward for Scottish independence again, and will be getting rebuked at every turn.(I'll not go into stuff that's really for the other thread). The Tories will continue their remoulding of Scotland's political structure.

Next General Election will show massive drops in support for both main parties. Lib-Dems gaining the lions share (again, if they don't cock it up) UKip will not do well at all, but Independents will. The Scottish parliament will similar to now, but with more a swing away from the SNP.

I 'enjoyed' this:

hmm interesting it could all go pear shaped but I  do have some hope that there are as yet silent forces for 'good' who will champion remain. I  have noticed that there have been many unlikely 'heroes' who have stepped up to champion democracy, the real democracy, not the fantasy meaningless soundbite brexiteer democracy. It is the private citizens like Gina Miller and the guy prosecuting Johnson for the bus lies and its the quiet backbenchers like Cooper, Letwin and Grieve. There are people who have fought and there are millions who have marched and signed petitions and put satirical posters up. We still have fight left in us, its not game over yet. There are  people like James O'Brien and Jonathan Pie, but they are pitted against the might of the right wing press, the Murdoch evil empire and even today on Sky News Kay Burley was interviewing a friend of Assange who was immediately cut off mid sentence when she mentioned the words "we must vote for Corbyn" I couldn't believe it, they don't even bother hiding the fact they are Tory stooges. So its a battle alright, and we cant sit back and allow the Farages, Johnsons and Esther McViles to win.

Funny, going "pear-shaped" is a Briticism that only popped up 20 years ago, and there is no hint as to its origins.

halfwise wrote:Funny, going "pear-shaped" is a Briticism that only popped up 20 years ago, and there is no hint as to its origins.

The RAF is attributed to have brought the phrase in to popularity during the 1940s, it's usage was know for sometime before.

I quite like pears. Maybe a fruit no one likes should be nominated.

That's still no explanation.  I've read about vertical loops that don't quite pull it off, so are asymmetrical and pear shaped, but it's not a certain origin.

Didn't say it was an origin, although it's easy to speculate usage. How it moved from a general description to a colloquial saying for something done badly, isn't that much of a stretch.

Of course, that's based on the presumption that it's not a bastardisation of a different phrase. But just like Brexit, we can only guess... lol

I'd feel more comfortable with the loop shape as origin story if there was some reason fighter planes would need to do loops. Don't know if they do. Would have to be something that's done often and therefore talked about regularly enough that the phrase would be re-used until it caught on.

I suppose it's possible that a one-off story was memorable enough that a phrase from it got passed along to other things. Sort of the way nick-names happen: the simple origins get lost in the mists of time.

{{ I swear theres a Who clip for everything! }}

{{ May has announced what in her new offer, in fact she has gone as far as to call this a 'new bill' despite it seeming to be suspiciously like the last ones.

So what is 'new' in it.

First up - MPs will get a vote on whether to hold another referendum if they back the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

This is pretty meaninglessness, it doesn't offer a 2nd referendum, or even just a public confirmation vote on the deal, but a vote to have a vote in the House about if to have a 2nd public vote, where she knows there is not a majority for a 2nd referendum and it will not pass. I dont know who this is meant to entice but I dont see it working as its a pretty shallow attempt to woo those in favour of a 2nd vote.

next- 'A vote on different customs options, including a government proposal for a temporary customs union for goods - what Mrs May called a "customs compromise"'

In other words we still dont know what we are doing but we do still have a bunch of options we are going to through out there in the hope something sticks.

3rd new thing- 'A legal obligation for the UK to come up with an alternative to the Northern Ireland backstop by the end of 2020'

All very well as there is no sane plan to solving this particular issue sticking and arbitrary date on it will at best effect nothing at all, and at worse will force a last minute fudged mess into law just to make a deadline. I will be very surprised if this brings the DUP back to her side.

4 - 'If the backstop does come into force, the bill would guarantee Northern Ireland remains aligned with the rest of the UK and remains in separate customs territory.'

Basically all this does is say NI will stay aligned with the UK under the backstop, and the UK will therefore by definition, though not mentioned, have to align with the EU on goods to maintain the trade.

Number five - 'Legislation to ensure workers rights are "every bit as good if not better" after Brexit and guarantees of no dilution in environmental standards.

This is her attempt to woo Labour voters. problem here is she is only offering guarantees, which are the same as political promises- not binding, not legal and mean nothing in the end.

And the reaction?

Well as you'd expect to this.

Opposition first- 'Jeremy Corbyn said he would not support the bill and could not see how it would get through Parliament.
"It's basically a rehash of what was discussed before and it doesn't make any fundamental moves on market alignment or the customs union or indeed protection of rights," he said.
"There's also, of course, the question of the deliverability of it. The prime minister has already indicated she's going to leave office."

The DUP described it all as, "fundamentally flawed".

The SNP said they wouldn't support it and nor will the lib dems.

So what about her own side then?

'Iain Duncan Smith said it left the EU "firmly in control of our destiny" while Anne-Marie Trevelyan accused Mrs May of "trying to ram her botched deal through on Labour votes by keeping us in the customs union and allowing Brussels to dictate our future trade policy".
Former minister Andrew Percy, who backed her Brexit agreement on three previous occasions, said he would not do so now.
Jacob Rees-Mogg said what was on offer was "worse than before", while Zac Goldsmith said the bill was a "convoluted mess" and the prime minister - who has offered to quit once a Brexit agreement is approved by Parliament - should leave now. '

So the compromises she has made to woo opposition votes are weak, wishy-washy and mainly with no legal basis or standing or change so little as to be largely irrelevant, but they have been enough to lose her even more support on her own side. So, yeah May, well done there you somehow managed to take your hugely unpopular bill and make people hate it even more! }}

wowzer. this was her last ditched attempt, and she managed to piss off the ERGers even more, and make it even more rubbish than it was before. I think she was trying to woo the moderates, but it failed miserably. Her deal will fail even worse than before, cant wait, I need a laugh.

{{ Starting to look like May might not last the day!

Three cabinet ministers, Hunt, Mundell and Javid have all requested private meetings withthe PM. Which has shades of Thatchers last hours when her senior cabinet went to her one by one and effectively told her she couldn't win and was time to go.

Interetingly both Hunt and Mundell seem to be protesting the inclusion of any possible 2nd referendum, urging her to remove it.
In particular Mundell, who is Scottish Secretary is citing as his reasoning that it would give fuel to supporters of Independence in Scotland- arguing if they offer a 2nd referendum on Brexit then its harder to refuse a 2nd one for Scotland.

Things are certainly moving though, with lots of conservative voices now saying she has to go sooner rather than later, and even an attempt to change party rules allowing for another vote of no confidence in her. }}

{{ Heres an interesting move from May- she is refusing to meet with Cabinet ministers who have requested to see her- as the BBC correspondent put it- 'I'm not really sure why she think this makes the problem go away'

The 1922 committee (the lot who set the rules for the party) have broken up with so far no change of rules. Meaning as it stands she is technically safe from a no confidence vote till December.
But that does not make her safe, far from it, forced resignation is looking much more likely now. }}

refusing to see them, its probably only a matter of hours rather than days then.

{{ Commons Leader Leadsom has resigned.

I find it interesting that every MP thats either gone or publicly spoken out against her or asked for a private meeting all sight the 2nd referendum as an issue, not because of anything to do with Brexit, but because they are scared of Scotland!

Leadsom for example gave as one of her reasons for resigning-

'Another referendum would "risk undermining our Union which is something I passionately want to see strengthened", she argued.' }}}