UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

{{ There is no much unprecedented stuff going on right now its hard to keep track off, but one from today must be a new first- the Brexit Secretary on the vote to delay Brexit put the case to the House for it, then wrapped up his speech before the vote commending the bill to the House- before immediately defying his government and his own bill by voting against it!! I mean you couldn't make this stuff up.

Out of the Labour Mp's who didn't abstain and voted for blocking another referendum 5 so far have resigned. So its not like the chaos and lack of any sort of control or normal procedure is solely on the Tory side, Labour are in just as much a mess.

So to ignore the madness all round for a moment and try to concentrate on what has actually happened-

1. Parliament has rejected Mays deal, twice.
2. Parliament had voted to say it does not want a No Deal exit- however this is not legally binding, without a delay or a deal in place we are still scheduled under treaty to leave the EU on the 29th- that has not changed. Parliament has just expressed a will not to.
3. Parliament has rejected a second referendum for now.
4. Parliament has agreed to ask the EU for a brief extension period to the leave date- this has to be agreed by all 27 remaining EU members.

And thats it, all this chaos for that, some procedure basically- the big questions- NI border, trade deals, rights and movement of Eu citizens in the UK and Brits in the Eu block afterwards, how customs will work, visas for travel? Nothing, the actual issues that needed solved are not even close to being looked at let alone solutions found for them- Parliament is too busy with procedure about how to go about doing something to actually get round to the doing somehting bit.

In the meantime presumably the civil service are running the actual country.

So as things stand Mays deal is out, no deal is out, a 2nd referendum is out- you might ask what exactly that leaves and the simple answer is nothing- there is no plan b to go to and Parliament is so conflicted on what it thinks it should do it cant agree with itself even within parties. }}}

Thanks Petty, that helps a lot! I honestly wouldn't have a clue what to make of the headlines and half-stories I'm seeing over here if you hadn't roadmapped it out.  

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{  you might ask what exactly that leaves and the simple answer is nothing- there is no plan b to go to and Parliament is so conflicted on what it thinks it should do it cant agree with itself even within parties.  }}}

... this probably isn't quite the moment for which you've been keeping a spare Monarch around all these centuries...
... but still, a completely dysfunctional Parliament?...  
... you can't help wondering....

{{It might come to that yet! And no problem keeping Forumshire up to date, Ive been trying to catch as much live as I can and it doesn't make a hell a lot of sense close up either, but I'm not surprised from the other side of the Pond it looks even more absurd and unfathomable. It is absurd and unfathomable! }}

Wait, why would Labor MPs resign, they are not part of the government!

But the civil service runs every country.  You don't actually think the so-called 'leaders' can be trusted with that job, do you?

very pissed off with Starmer right now, I thought he was going to get us the vote, but he doesn't want one

{{Well Labour are trying to explain their abstaining away yesterday as something other than the utter moral collapse it was-

'(Labour did) not believe Thursday was the right time to push for another referendum - but insisted the option was not off the table, despite being heavily defeated by MPs.
"You have to try and exhaust all the other options first and if parliament can't resolve it, it's at that point that it goes back to the people," - BBC news

Worth noting it was only heavily defeated because Labour abstained! This is kicking it into the long grass stuff though, they know full well unless Parliament had voted for another referendum while there was a chance (ie yesterday) it will now not give up its own power again - and Labour clearly don't really want to either.

As far as I can tell there is no path through Parliament now to reaching a 2nd referendum thanks to Labours position.


'why would Labor MPs resign, they are not part of the government!' - Halfy

Because they are members of the shadow cabinet and hold shadow ministerial portfolios- the opposition are the government in opposition, so they are modelled just like the real government and cabinet (so there is a shadow minister of defence, shadow education secretary etc) and follow the same cabinet collective responsibility rules- partly to demonstrate whilst in opposition they can do it and act like a real government and partly so if they do get elected to govenrment they are ready with all the shadow cabinet in place to simply turn into the real cabinet.
There is none of that US 2 years trying to fill a post malarkey! Because of how the opposition mirrors the government its ready in theory to hit the ground running and fully manned with people in positions they have benn briefed on and working on already, sometimes for years before doing it for real. }}}

Sounds like a good and clever system which comes about from this idea of sudden changes in political winds causing parliament to "form a new government", which to Americans is a deeply mysterious phrase everyone just tries to pretend to understand.

{{{Wow! OK, John Bercow, the Speaker of the House, just changed the game with 11 days to go.

He has ruled that the government cannot bring May's deal back for a third vote unless its substantially different.

'He told the Commons that parliamentary conventions dating back to 1604 meant MPs could not be asked to vote on precisely the same subject twice...Mr Bercow made his ruling in response to what he said were concerns from MPs that they could be "repeatedly asked to pronounce on the same proposition ad infinitum".
He said last week's second vote on the deal had not broken parliamentary conventions.
The government, he said, had secured "legal changes" to its agreement with the EU and what MPs had been asked to consider was different from the agreement rejected by 230 votes in January.
But quoting Erskine May, the parliamentary rulebook, he said if the government attempted to bring back "the same or substantially the same motion" in the coming days then he would intervene to stop it.'
The prime minister's official spokesman said Mr Bercow "did not warn us of the contents of the statement or indeed the fact that he was making one". - BBC


Oh boy. So that effectively takes May's deal off the table- which is all the govenrment has. And Brexiteers are going to see this as an attempt by the Speaker to derail Brexit- as all that is left is crashing out with No Deal which Parliament has already voted to say it doesn't want to do, or a substantive delay to Article 50. And that will enrage  many on the Leave side. Unless Parliament can come up with a new deal in the next 11 days they can get a majority on. Which right now, does not seem likely. }}

big kisses to Bercow, we are finding our heroes in strange places

and a big moon to May

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{{ all that is left is crashing out with No Deal which Parliament has already voted to say it doesn't want to do, or a substantive delay to Article 50. }}

Amazing! And do I remember correctly that the EU has said they wouldn't support a substantive delay to Article 50 without some sort of realistic expectation of a path forward (such as a new referendum for example)?

{{ Indeed Dave. And dont get your hopes too high yet Figg- the problem with Parliament is its built up so many procedures over the centuries there is usually a counter procedure to every other procedure.

A delay is a likely outcome, but as of now the law is still we leave in 11 days time with or without a deal and there is some Parliamentary procedure trickery they could use to get round it- talks now that if the govenrment attach something about Ireland and Stormont to the original that might make it different enough- or even that May asks the Queen to end the Parliamentary session, everyone goes home for a day or two then all come back for a Queen's speech to open Parliament, ole Black Rod has a good bang and Bob's your uncle new session- technically she can bring it back then as its the first time again (in a new session of Parliament) you kind of normally have a general election in there though when that happens- but technically you dont have to have one but that would be challenged I would imagine.

May's response will be interesting. }}

{{{ Ding-ding Round 2!

May says she is bringing her deal back for a 3rd vote despite the Speakers ruling.
So how will she do this?
Well it all hinges on the fact the UK does not have a written constitution but rather a build up precedent and consensus built up over the years and codified in the late 1800's - that is the basic rule book for how Parliament works and it is updated every 20 years to reflect changes made by the House to procedure, or new precedents that have been set- and that's the heart of it, precedent can be overturned if there is the will in the House to do so. Conventions of the House can be changed by the House, assuming there is  a majority to do so.

Now May believes with the clock ticking and Moggs lot having blown their wad too early and screwed themselves, combined with growing fear on the Remainer side of crashing out with no deal, that she has a majority to get her bill passed on the 3rd try. If she can get a majority behind it then she will have a majority in favour also of overriding precedent and allowing a 3rd vote- the House can override the Speaker as the Speakers job is to facilitate the running of the House according to the rules, not set the rules. The Speaker is basically just a referee, he interprets and applies the rules of the House in order to make it run as smoothly and fairly as possible. But he cannot make up rules. As it stands he is right to say the precedent is you can't keep bringing the same bill back unchanged for vote after vote, especially if its already been roundly rejected twice. But that rule can be changed and that seems to be May's plan- change the precedent.

So it all comes back to if May has put the wind sufficiently up both Brexiteers and Remainers to back her unpopular bill rather than the alternatives (for Brexiteers the fear is if her Bill doesn't pass there will be a lengthy delay to Article 50 and the chance of a 2nd referendum, for remainers its the fear if her bill doesn't pass and there is no consensus the UK will crash out of Europe on WTO rules with no deal. )

This is far from over yet. And zombie May might yet return from the dead. But right now that is almost entirely dependent upon her gaining the backing of the DUP. The govenrment say they are in talks with the DUP but that they aren't bribing them with more money like last time- but one has to wonder if that is true why the Chancellor of the Exchequer was involved in the talks?   }}

OK...... so how would a rule change in the House be initiated in this case? Would a member have to introduce a motion first, or does May just come crashing into the chamber with her deal in her hand and demand a vote?

{{Never in my life would I have believed I'd be this interested in Parliamentary Procedure, but THIS is like a slow-motion train wreck.. I want to look away, but I just can't.... }}}

{{ It is quickly turning into something resembling an exceptional large gathering of people in very close proximity to one another engaged in intimate physical acts of a sexual nature. There's a word for that, oh yes, clusterfuck! }}

Other voices from the US peanut gallery:

Donald Trump Jr: ‘Brexit and my father’s election are one and the same’
US president’s son attacks a ‘last-gasp attempt by those previously in power to cling on to what was once theirs.’

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-jr-brexit-election-comparison/

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ It is quickly turning into something resembling an exceptional large gathering of people in very close proximity to one another engaged in intimate physical acts of a sexual nature. There's a word for that, oh yes, clusterfuck! }}

a better analogy

{{{ Well, well, looks like May's plan and her bacon may have just been saved today, by the EU and in particular Tusk.
He announced today that the EU would agree to a short extension- if - MP's pass May's bill. If it doesn't its either crash out on the 29th with no deal- or a lengthy extension. Plenty reason for Remain and Leave sides to back May's bill as a less worse alternative.
All eye now are on the DUP- their 10 MP's are the deal makers now- if May gets the nod for them the ERG will fall in line and the final remnants of revolt on the hard Brexit side will have nowhere else to go but May's plan or no plan. }}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{{ Plenty reason for Remain and Leave sides to back May's bill as a less worse alternative.  }}

A less worse alternative. I like it. Democracy excels at solutions that make everybody equally unhappy
Actually, to your questions on another thread, Obamacare is entirely a "less worse alternative" that emerged from a partisan feud very much like your Brexit feud. All I can say is, don't let this current lot of MP's touch your healthcare or you'll end up where we are now

{{May addressed the nation last night- to basically set up a potentially very dangerous fight- she essentially blamed everyone bar herself- claimed she and she alone with her Deal was on the side of the people and all but proclaimed Parliament as the enemy of the people- dangerous stuff in the current mood.

Oddly the Sun ran with this front page today-



Odd because the Sun have May photoshopped as a tv character from what is now a pretty obscure, shortlived sitcom from the 1970's called Citizen Smith, I just remember it from my childhood-



Now that show was about a would be Communist Revolutionary trying to bring the power to the people of Tooting, and failing at it through the fact that in reality he is just a  lazy, inept dreamer. Which like I say is an odd choice for the Sun who are largely in support of Brexit and May, its a pretty damn obscure reference, especially for anyone under 40 (so obscure they have a disclaimer telling you who it is!) - someone in the picture dept is being a tad subversive here!.

Meanwhile a meeting between May and the opposition parties to sort out an alternative way forward went well- Corbyn walked straight back out and refused to take part in it when he saw the Independence Group were there (the Labour lot who quit to form a new party) and according to SNP and Welsh Nationalists all the PM was interested in was getting backing for her plan not discussing any alternatives at all! }}

so let me get this straight, its all parliaments fault



she is mad

{{Eu are right now deciding the UKs fate behind closed doors- its running hours late and the UK is excluded from the room while it goes on.

Meanwhile a serious blow, possible fatal to May- her Chief Whip has ben going about saying her speech the other night was 'appalling'-

'"I understand her sermon from the No10 lectern – damning of her Parliamentary colleagues on Brexit – has snapped the final bond of trust between Theresa May and Julian Smith - the man she relies on to deliver discipline, and most importantly, votes."- ITV news

Last PM whose Chief Whip abandoned her was Thatcher, shortly before the Fall. }}

{{ Draft proclamation form the EU_

'EUCO agrees to an extension to 22 May, provided WA is approved by the HoC next week. If the WA is not approved by the HoC next week, EUCO agrees to an extension until 12 April, expects UK to indicate a way forward for the consideration of EUCO'

So May has until the 29th to get her bill through ( tricky if she has no chief whip!) and if she can't there will only a very short extension until the 12th of next month then the Commons will either have to have a new plan or ask for a lengthy extension, or crash out. }}

Petty theres a petition to revoke Article 50 up to 2 million people have signed it. Get everyone you know to sign it, its massive.    

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

actually get everyone in Scotland to sign it.

Mock Brexit Turtle sings to Alice

Will you vote a little faster?, said a Maybot to the ERG
There's a Corbyn close behind us, and he's threatening my DUP
Don't you see how eagerly the Tory cabinet and the Boneheads all advance
They are waiting on the cliff edge, won't you come and join the dance?
Will you, won't you, will you, won't you, won't you join the dance?
You can really have no notion how delightful it will be
When they take us up and throw us, with the EU citizens in the sea
But the Speaker replied "Too far, too far!" and gave a look askance
Said he thanked the Leader kindly, but he would not join the dance
Would not, could not, would not, could not, would not join the dance.............

{{{{ Love it Figg


Well the march was big- but even if it was as estimated over 1 million, there were 61 million voted to leave still! Plus I don't see it having any effect sadly, no more than when a million marched against Blair's illegal war in Iraq- it changed nothing.

Word is though the Tories are trying to off May- but who replaces her seems a tricky decision- the Remainer Tories want her Deputy to take over as interim until they elect a new leader (he too was a remainer) the Brexiteers want Gove as PM (God help us!).

And May's plan seems to have little chance of success at this point at the third go, in fact it not even clear she will try for a third go as she as officially said now to MP's there wont be a third vote unless there is a clear majority in favour of it- and with the DUP saying just the other day of her plan- 'nothing has changed' that seems as unlikely as it did the first two times.

And despite lots of talk of a 2nd referendum it too seems an unlikely proposition- Labour dont openly support it even though they officially do- you may have noticed Corbyn was the only leader other than May not to show for the rally or to speak at it- so there are not the votes in the House to pass it. }}

Mays days be numbered- who replaces her will decide a lot. }}