UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

tonight will probably decide whether brexit happens. there are two weeks left, so Corbyns fantasy soft brexit wont fly with Europe. The Germans look like they wont accept an extension unless its to have a second referendum. fiddling with May's deal is well and truly over. hopefully a no-deal will be voted down, so whats left? its either revoke article 50, or have a second referendum, there are no other alternatives. extending article 50 on the hopes of fuddling with May's deal are over, there are no other deals, so what the hell is going to happen next?? its all going to go tits up, and I cant wait. this repulsive government is poison.

{{There is Corbyn preferred option of a general election- but I dont see Labours position being any more useful than the Tories on this, I dont actually see what a change of government would change at all regards Brexit. Corbyns Brexit-lite option wont get the votes any more than Mays version did. We'd be in the exact same mess just with different faces in charge of the mess.

The EU seem to be making it clear they will only grant an extension if there is a reason, something on the table in that period to work with. If its just an extension for the UK to argue with itself some more there is no point- in which case like it or not we are heading for hard Brexit if there is no extension unless we revoke Article 50- and I dont see that happening either as both Tories and Labour publicly at least are committed to fulfilling Brexit and leaving the EU.

Another referendum would at least provide either conformation of the original result or show a rethink- either risks provoking civil unrest from the losing side, especially those who won the first time if the result is different this time.
The problem there besides that risk is the whole thing is so muddled now what do you ask? A straight leave remain question? Do you put May's deal on the options? No deal? A Norway style position?
Do you ask the public if anyone has a good answer to the NI border issue given the politicians cant get their square peg in that particular round hole? And will the EU even think it worth giving us the time to hold another referendum when the result might well be the same anyway and change nothing? }}

{{ Todays antics may be eclipsing yesterdays.

First as expected MP's rejected no deal, but then the government lost an amendment, and then the next amendment would rule out no deal permanently as an option, which May doesn't want so she hastily restated the party whip for it, not just a whip a three-line whip- its top tier threaten ministers with whatever you've got including their job and reputation to get them to vote- but several cabinet ministers are either voting against or going to abstain- we will see- which normally would mean instant resignation from the cabinet going against a three-line whip! }}

{{The amendment passed, rumours rife of upcoming resignations, May is speaking, or croaking at the moment! }}

{{ Several cabinet ministers abstained- on a three-line whip- resignations may be incoming, normally definitely but not normal times at all! }}

What next?!?

indeed what next

{{{ Incredibly Mays plan, again! No joke. It is possible she might eventually win this incredible as that is. Rumour mill is Mogg's lot felt they had backed themselves into a corner last time, and now no deal Brexit is ruled out effectively the fear among the Brexiteers now is that with Mays plan rejected, no deal rejected, rejecting the leave vote altogether is next.
That the ERG and Mogg and co felt they screwed up in their hardlineness is no surprise after Moggg's squirming on the vote- before it he was 100% against May and her deal, but its clear he was looking for a get out clause and an excuse to vote for it in reality- irst he said he would not declare how he was voting, then when pressed more he passed responsibility on and said how the DUP decided to vote would be the deciding factor for him. Then the DUP declared they were against and Mogg says he is still not saying what way his lot will vote, they will wait onm the ERG report before deciding. When it too came out against Mays plan Mogg finally announced they would be voting against the plan (having exhausted all hopes someone else would bail him out of a position of his own making) with five minutes to go till the vote. There is a very good reason Mogg has never made it off the back-benches, this whole process has showed us why.

So rumour is they might swing behind Mays plan come crunch time. And if there is no other credible plan proposed, agreed or put in place by the 29th it might be May's deal or none at all- at which point with a gun to their head she might actually somehow get it through the House.
That certainly seems to be her preferred plan and what she is sticking to, pushing for not just a possible 3rd 'meaningful' vote but a 4th too if needed! (how many times does she have to lose a 'meaningful' vote before its lost all meaning?)

One minister out of the 13 resigned as fall out from defying the party whip- but was voluntary (and as she is DWP she was probably looking to get out before the universal credit train completely derails too) but the others seem to have got away with it- this has caused some considerable fury in Tory ranks .

As to those ministers who bucked the whip? Well they say that they still support the PM's plan overall just not no deal, so they dont have to resign because (a) they didn't vote against the government, they abstained (b) they otherwise continue to support May's plan. One of those to abstain was Mundell, the Scottish Secretary, seems he is only willing to sell Scotland out so far after all!
But in normal circumstances a cabinet minister who does not vote with thee government on a three-line whip would automatically be sacked- this is not just some sort of sacked for defying the boss thing, though there is that too, its more important than that- the UK Parliamentary system at Cabinet level works on a principle called 'Cabinet Collective Responsibility- in short the cabinet can be split in cabinet on something, but once they vote on something in cabinet and it becomes official government policy all the cabinet must back it and support it from then on, regardless of how they personally feel or voted, if someone feels too strongly about something they say so and resign because they can't meet the collective responsibility bar.
What has happened here is for the first time I know of cabinet ministers have smashed collective responsibility and voted as they did in cabinet against regardless of policy, its not just two fingers up to the boss its two fingers up to the Parliamentary system, hence the anger about it even on the Tory benches.

As a humorous side note one BBC reporter in the Commons is reporting that backbench Tory MP's have been switching off their phones in order to avoid a dreaded call up to May's cabinet! }} }}

{{May is bringing her bill back yet again for a 3rd 'meaningful' vote!

She seems to be gambling that faced with either crashing out with nothing in place on the 29th will scare the remainers into voting for it this time, and the fear of brexit being delayed will get the brexiteers to back it given it enough to pass before the 29th.

Don't mistake this for high level chess politics from May this is making what she can of the chaos she has caused through incompetence, this is not tactics its desperation. But that doesn't mean it wont work. }}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{Don't mistake this for high level chess politics from May this is making what she can of the chaos she has caused through incompetence, this is not tactics its desperation. But that doesn't mean it wont work. }}

Of course! When in doubt, play the chaos card  We get a lot of that over here too

Speaking of which, the latest tweet from our President this morning:

@realDonaldTrump wrote:My Administration looks forward to negotiating a large scale Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. The potential is unlimited!

{{{because both the USA and the UK have been doing such a good job of negotiating trade deals recently. }}}

From this I just learned that it's normal for British MPs to resign if they feel they can't vote the party line. That would seem to make party deadlock worse in Britain than in America. Can't say I agree with that system - that party IS not and SHOULD not be all there is to government. People should be able to vote as they see it regardless of party affiliation.

{{ Not quite Halfy- not party members just Cabinet level ministers. If you hold an Office of State ie are in the Cabinet, then you have to accept collective responsibility for the decisions of that Cabinet (legally too).
Backbench MP's can be whipped, bullied, cajoled and threatened into voting with the party but they dont have to. Cabinet ministers do have to vote with their own Government because the Cabinet collectively is responsible for the policy and legislation. For Cabinet Ministers to deft their own Cabinet and PM, when they have privately in cabinet already agreed to go along with the policy and support it and accept collective responsibility, especially a maximum three-line whip, that's unheard of in our system. And for there then to be seemingly no consequences to them for having done so its seen as a sign of how little power May has left over her own Cabinet. }}

the latest tweet from our President this morning:- Dave

{{Just took a quick look at all the major UK news outlets- it seems Trumps tweets are regarded with such disdain and as being so utterly meaningless that I cant find a single news outlet here even reporting he tweeted that- which gives an idea of how important Trumps thoughts are regarded on this matter. }}

Cabinet members vote on parliamentary matters? A different system indeed. Here once someone in congress accepts the equivalent of a cabinet position they resign from congress.

{{ All ministers get a vote in Parliament, if your an MP you get a vote, its simple at least.

The Cabinet are just ministers with jobs of State- Defence, Education etc and the PM is just the a minster too, the title really means 'first among equals' (the Welsh, Irish and Scottish devolved Ministers went with more direct First Minister to express this)- the PM sets agenda and direction, the Cabinet set department policy and run them, and the rest of the party are the backbenchers. But when it comes to voting in the house they are all the same with the same 1 vote each. }}

Labour are still pushing a pink unicorn fantasy soft brexit. when the heck are they going to give up and give us a vote.

big march on 23rd march lets hope its a whopper.

{{ The worst of it with Corbyn Figg is that a 2nd referendum is the policy of the Labour party, just not it seems of its leadership! The grassroots voted at Conference to make another referendum the Labour party policy- but Corbyn seems to want either his non-starter soft Brexit there is no more the votes for than for May's plan, or a general election, which might be fine for getting him personally power but does no good for solving Brexit as Labour would be fully exposed as just as divided on the matter as the Tories and for the very good reason there simply is no time to hold one now. The clock is almost run down. }}

{{If further prove of the uselessness of Corbyn's Labour were needed this from the Labour dispatch box as I was writing the above-

'Labour's Sir Keir Starmer says his party will not back today's amendment calling for a new referendum on Brexit, saying "today is about a different issue"'

Yeah dont pin your hopes on Labour Figg, I aint going to happen from them.

By contrast-

'The prime minister has "no authority" and has "lost all control", says Ian Blackford - the SNP Westminster leader.
"The only way out of the disaster is to put the issue back to the people," he says. }}}

{{update- 'Mr Blackford now turns to the Labour Party, particularly their decision not to support today's amendment calling for a second referendum.
"A shiver has run along the front bench of the Labour Party looking for a spine to crawl up - and it hasn’t been able to find one," he says.'

Least someone with guts left in opposition in this country!

For all the good it will do, without Labour backing the amendment, even with Remain Tories allegedly going to abstain again, there simply isn't the number son the SNP, Lib-Dem, Welsh Nationalist, Green and Independent benches to make up the numbers to pass the amendment.

Which effectively will take a 2nd referendum off the table as an option.

Utter betrayal of their own membership here by Labour. Shocking! }} }}

{{Just to clarify, as there was a bit of a parliamentary rumpus about it before the debate began- there were 2 amendments put forward regarding another referendum- one by remainers that got selected for the vote today which called for another referendum, and one by brexiteers which called to rule one out ever, which did not get selected prompting anger from the Brexit Tories at the Speaker who does the selecting of which amendments go to a vote.

So the referendum amendment losing today does not on a technical level rule out another referendum, it would just mean Parliament has not agreed to call one now.
But if Labour will not support such a referendum in the House then the votes to pass it dont exist and it's as good as dead anyway.

Just to clarify the point. }}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{But if Labour will not support such a referendum in the House then the votes to pass it dont exist and it's as good as dead anyway.

Just to clarify the point. }}

Not that clarity is even on the table at this point, but would you mind attempting to clarify why Labor wouldn't support the referendum?

{{ Well there is the official line- today is not the day for it, basically. After that its speculation.

My own is that Corbyn is afraid the vote for Brexit in many northern traditional Labour heartlands would be larger and stronger in a 2nd referendum not smaller, this would make for a tricky balancing act between the wider Labour traditionally pro-European stance and the areas of labour working class voters who are now more anti-Europe. Labour already has suffered from a growing divide between its London centric centre and its traditional working class seats. But it needs those votes to get in power- so rather push for a general election first before you split your own voting base in another referendum.

Also Corbyn is simply not an EU fan and has previously spoken out against it before becoming leader, so he doesn't have an appetite for it I dont think. And finally, never underestimate the Labour hatred of the SNP- in general Labour would vote with the devil first. All the Unionist parties hate the SNP, but Labour more than most as it was Labour the SNP uprooted and replaced to come to and stay in power. Never underestimate how tribal or unforgiving UK politics is! }}

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{update- 'Mr Blackford now turns to the Labour Party, particularly their decision not to support today's amendment calling for a second referendum.
"A shiver has run along the front bench of the Labour Party looking for a spine to crawl up - and it hasn’t been able to find one," he says.'

Least someone with guts left in opposition in this country!

For all the good it will do, without Labour backing the amendment, even with Remain Tories allegedly going to abstain again, there simply isn't the number son the SNP, Lib-Dem, Welsh Nationalist, Green and Independent benches to make up the numbers to pass the amendment.

Which effectively will take a 2nd referendum off the table as an option.

Utter betrayal of their own membership here by Labour. Shocking! }} }}

but cant MPs defy the front bench? if I was a Labour MP I damn well would vote for a second ref.

{{ In theory yes Figg, in practise it seems no going on the votes cast.
On the referendum vote 17 Labour Mp's defied their own party and voted against the referendum (one resignation so far from the Shadow Cabinet as a result) 24 labour MP's ignored Corbyn and voted for another referendum and the bulk of them played follow your leader and did as Corby asked with 202 abstaining.

Had Labour not abstained and not had some of its members vote against there would have been the numbers to pass another referendum today. As it is it lost 333 to 85.

After the vote Corbyn said, "Today I reiterate my conviction that a deal can be agreed based on our alternative plan that can command support across the House. I also reiterate our support for a People's Vote - not as a political point-scoring exercise but as a realistic option to break the deadlock."

On his first point- there is no support in the House for his plan any more than there is for Mays version. An don the second point- really? Anyone believe him after today? Anyone? No? Thought not. }}

Corbyn is a gigantic wanker, and after this betrayal I am NEVER EVER VOTING LABOUR ever again. that's it I am done with the twats.