UK in/out referendum on the EU (Brexit vs Bremain)

Thanks for the update Petty. This whole thing is frankly mind-boggling!
With so many options on the table, so much uncertainty, and so very much at stake, you gotta believe the bookies are making a fortune! I'll have to check a betting odds site to see what masses are thinking, because it's clear the political pundits don't have a clue....

its all bonkers but at least tomorrow we will have an idea of what type of bonkers.

{{ Sadly Figg, not sure it will get less bonkers, it will probably get more bonkers tomorrow!

The government is saying it has secured 'legally binding' changes to the backstop to ensure the UK is not indefinitely in it.

Here is the official motion put forward by the government for tomorrows debate-



I will be very surprised if this satisfies. Obvious points of contention- its not changes to the actual withdrawal bill, these are being put forward as supplementary to the bill- many of May's critics were demanding changes to the Bill itself and its wording, that does not seem to have happened.
Secondly the line - "reduces the risk the UK could be deliberately held in the backstop'- obvious stumbling blocks here, it only says the risk is reduced not gone, and it only covers deliberate attempts to keep the UK in, not circumstantial ones.

The rest is just what I said above might happen- a list of vague proposals and to do lists for the future relationship.

I dont think this will save her bill.

She is likely to get support form those who are too afraid to go against their own voters if they are in strong leave constituencies- this applies equally to the Labour benches, so she will poach some votes from there for sure. There are quite a lotof Labour Brexit supports or Labour MP's in strong Leave areas.

And there will probably be some who will be swung by the governments other line of the day- that voting against the bill will plunge the UK political establihment into chaos and crisis.

One of the key signs will be if Boris and Mogg back the changes as sufficient- that would signal to their brexiteers group to throw in the towel and vote with the government.

But even then I dont think she can rely on all her own MP's, how many of Labour will vote with the government wil eb a crucial factor, and may even be a deciding one. }}

{{Things are moving apace.

First of crucial importance in is the Attorney Generals legal advice to cabinet on if the new changes are in fact legally binding and offer a legally binding exit strategy from a backstop if no agreements are struck in future.
The word in legal circles, and repeated publicly by many top lawyers this morning is that it does not- and rumour central says this was the Attorney Generals conclusion too- but that May sent him away again to find a way to come back and say it does! (shades of Blair!)
He has now given that advice to Cabinet- but its not public yet.

edit update!- The Attorney General is to give a statement on the legal advice he has proved at 12.30 today- this will be absolutely crucial in deciding the likelihood of the vote succeeding or failing.
The Attorney Generals office does not currently have a great reputation in the UK, ever since the Iraq war and Blair strong arming the then Attorney General into backing the war as legal under international law when everyone else could see it was clearly an illegal war- with the US openly stating regime change as an aim which contravenes international law.
So it is likely there will be a fair amount of questioning if the Attorney General comes down on the side of the changes being legally binding, when the seeming legal consensus so far is the opposite.

Mogg has spoken!! And he is passing the buck like the weasel man he really is- he says if the DUP accept May's deal Tory Brexiteers will too - so all eyes on the DUP then.

May is definitely going to win a lot of votes back between those fearing a cliff edge exit without a deal, those fearing parliamentary and public chaos if Brexit doesn't happen, those in Leave constituencies who need the votes and feel they have to back leaving- but with such a thin majority in the House its still gong to be very much an uphill climb and squeaky bum time come the vote. }}

{{ Breaking news- the Evening Standard is reporting that the Attorney Generals advice is that the legal risk of Brexit remains unchanged.
The pound has fallen sharply on the back of it.

This is a major blow to May's chances as getting concrete legal assurances over the backstop was one of the main issues.



edit add- sources in the DUP saying they dont see how they can back the deal after the legal advice.

Country might be slowly sliding into oblivion and civil disorder but its at least good drama I suppose!}}

{{ Tory meeting with PM just finished- a leading Brexiteer left saying nothing had changed, and May's arguments to persuade seem to be based around 'my plan is better for the country than the alternative of voting against it, and, we have local elections in May and we will get hammered at the polls if we dont do this.'.
Lots of cheering apparently for a Tory saying, "vote with the PM or get shafted by Labour'- that seems to be the biggest bargaining stick May has left with her own party after the legal advice.

Doesn't seem to have swayed all the brexiteers though, but the Commons Leader reports that the mood at the meeting was 'very positive'.

So take your pick on who to believe.

The actual main vote is not expected until 7pm tonight so there is a whole day of these political shenanigans ahead of us! }}

{{ The ERG group- representing brexiteers in the Tory party have had their own team of lawyers pouring over the government legal position, it is very influential for those Tory brexit backbenchers headed by Mogg, and what they say will have a big effect on things. They are due to give their verdict in about 10 mins time! }}

{{Well its becoming clear that the Tory line and Mays backers line is that she didnt get them what they wanted, but she got enough for many MP's to seize on to it and use it to justify voting for the deal. But its obvious this is a decision being made in the light of political considerations and the threat that not doing so will lose the Tories power.


'one colleague told May:"We were waiting for you to pull a rabbit out of the hat. You've brought us a hamster but I'm happy with with that".'


'Amber Rudd: tone of meeting with PM was thoughtful. We need to look at this politically not just legally. We will win tonight.'

' If hardliners vote against this they risk chaos, crisis & Corbyn. Please don’t.'

So the tactic of the moment is fear of loss of power if Tories dont back their PM. And whilst she didn't get any actual changes, the small concessions she did get is enough for wavering Tories to jump onboard with her to save their political bacon.

Is this the best way to be asking such decisions? I shouldn't think so, but it is probably what we should expect from politicians. }}

{{The ERG group has finally announced it findings. Not good for May and potentially not good for keeping the DUP onside.

'ERG says no - legal advice does not meet tests govt set itself...'In the light of our own legal analysis and others we do not recommend accepting the Government's motion today'

And the Conservative Chair of the European Scrutiny Committee has added- the legal and constitutional status of Northern Ireland "cannot be put at risk". He says that there are "no internationally lawful means of exit" from the backstop. He states that there is "insufficient protection for Northern Ireland to continue as part of the United Kingdom". }}

{{ Tories are hammering their 'vote for it even if you dom't like it or face devastation, loss of power and Corbyn as PM' line, which seems to imply its the main tactic they have left to get the votes.

'Charles Walker, vice chairman of the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers, tells Radio 4's World at One programme that if the deal does not go through tonight, there "will be a general election within a matter of days or weeks...It might be a Labour government, I hope it isn’t, but it might well be...We are coming to the end of the road as a Parliament...We have to make a decision tonight and it has to be to let this deal pass." }}

{{{ Rumours swirling Moggs lot will abstain in the vote tonight! }}

{{{ DUP have announced they will vote against the bill. That could well be curtains for it!

If it passes now it will need to be on Labour votes backing it. }}

{{ Mogg still acting the weasel part- despite the ERG (which he heads) coming out against May's bill he is still not saying which way he or his group will vote.
Rumours are large numbers of them want to back the deal now its actually crunch time, but as up to now they have been so hard line against its difficult for them to do so and save any face given their own group findings are that the bill does not meet the criteria they set out for it.

As a result the group are having a meeting and vote about 5pm -ish to decide which way to vote.

"The default position of Conservative MPs is that we want to support the prime minister and government policy. But Geoffrey Cox's legal opinion certainly didn't make that any easier."- Mogg

This from the man who orchestrated the attempted coup to remove the PM form power only a couple of months ago and who has been the most strident leader of the group opposing the government policy to this point. }}

Petty wrote:Country might be slowly sliding into oblivion and civil disorder but its at least good drama I suppose

there is a whole day of these political shenanigans ahead of us!

Is this the best way to be asking such decisions? I shouldn't think so, but it is probably what we should expect from politicians.

All my life I've been amazed and impressed by the professional theatrics of the UK Parliamentary decision-making process! As with Shakespearean acting, there's nobody in the world does it better!

{{though that's probably not too reassuring at a time like this. I'm still hoping to see somebody pull a rabbit out of their hat and the curtain come down, but I'm afraid it's not looking too promising at the moment, is it? }}

{{ Just about half an hour till the vote. So far about 20 odd Tories who voted against the bill last time say they will vote for it so far, that those who have made a public statement. But that's nowhere near enough especially as May already lost the DUP.
She won't pick up many SNP/LibDem votes, if any at all and I expect at least half of Labour to vote against. So I dont see how this can be anything but a loss for May. }}

{{ Another blow for May- Mogg's lot might be playing their cards close to their chest, but whilst Mogg is often the face of the brexiters in the Tories he is not the most respected or has much standing outside of being a brexiteer as he has never held a ministerial role. Ian Duncan Smith however was a former party leader and he too is part of the ERG group and has come out publicly to say he will vote against- that will sway a lot more of the ERG group to do likewise.
Rumour has the ERG group of mp's at 80/20 against May's bill. }}

{{ With minutes to go till the vote Mogg has finally declared his position-

"I shall be voting against the government this evening ... I expect the majority of the ERG will vote against."
Mr Rees-Mogg said he was not worried Brexit would be delayed, saying: "The law remains as it is and the statute law is that we leave on the 29th March."

So in Mogg world voting against May's deal means we leave with a no deal on the 29th - highly unlikely, smart money is on an extension to Article 50. }}

{{Speaker just called the vote and cleared the Lobby- we should know the result in about 10-15 minutes!! }}

{{Rumours from the lobby is that the Tory turn out against May is massive! }}

{{ May just lost 242- 391 now to hear what May says next!

Blimey she has almost lost her voice!

She says tomorrow will be a no deal vote, if the house reject that the next day is a vote on extending article 50. She is making it a free vote on the Tory side- no party whips from now on, no party line to follow. And no sign whatsoever she is stepping down.}}

Brilliant!

apart from useless Corbyn and his fantasy deal. He is the one person who will stop a second referendum ever happening.

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{ She is making it a free vote on the Tory side- no party whips from now on, no party line to follow. }}

Wow, I wasn't expecting that at this stage in the process! That must be putting a lot of MPs in the awkward position of unexpectedly having to think for themselves on a HUGE issue right know. No party to blame! I don't envy them... This will definitely be interesting!

{{It's not so much a choice Dave as there is no way now for her to enforce a party line. The next vote tomorrow is on a no deal Brexit, whichever way she tried to get her party to vote- for or against - it would instantly result in at least half her own cabinet resigning on the spot.
At this moment May has no power worth the name or authority. It's out of her hands and she knows it, she has lost control of the process, for now at least. }}

Is it pretty well understood then how most Tories will vote tomorrow? I'd have assumed that a non-enforced vote would pretty much ensure there wouldn't be enough Tory votes to pass a No-Deal Brexit vote (I'm assuming few aye votes from the other major parties.) No?

{{ The majority in the House has always been Remain.

A lot of the issues the hard line Brexit Tories have with May is she was another Remainer, and they say that rather than fighting to negotiate a tough withdrawal deal advantageous to the UK that sets up to best benefit from cutting ties with the EU, she has instead since the start viewed leaving as a bad thing and so her 'deal' is not so much a deal as it is damage limitation- trying to get a situation after leave as close to what we have in the EU where we dont really leave.
Never mind her party, May's cabinet is split down the middle between remainers and leave, any attempt by her to enforce a direction of vote would upset one half or another no matter what. And Brexit MP's, who in the past were mainly on the Tory benches, were always a minority in Parliament. Its only a combination of the rise of UKIP, Cameron's fear of losing safe Tory seats to them in the SE of England and appalling political judgement by the Cameron government that the minority Brexit group in Parliament has found itself in this position (and even at UKIP's highest points of popularity they too were never more than a minority party that operated almost exclusively in England- their great success was to get Cameron to take them seriously and to cause this chaos and get to this point when they really had an empty hand and were bluffing- consider the fact this entire Brexit process has taken place without input from a single UKIP member as they have no MP's, yet incredibly they are the reason this is happening at all, Camerons political judgement is up there with the worst in UK history).

So the chances of the House now swinging behind a no deal are pretty slim towards none.

However there is a possibility than even if the House votes to reject a no deal as expected, the EU wont extend article 50- this seems unlikely but it is possible the EU will simply say 'what's the point? We have nothing else to negotiate, the problem is at your end UK, what are you going to come up with in 2 weeks, or even 2 months that you haven't in the last two years?

Understandably from the EU point the whole thing is a farce built on smoke and mirrors. The Brexit debate the UK public then voted on was a campaign of lies and deceit- the real issues, what about the Northern Ireland border, access to the single market, the realistic chances of putting replacement trade deals in place etc were never even discussed but all dismissed as things which would be 'simple', 'easy', and done quickly. Boris in fact told us explicitly that a post leave deal with the EU would be 'the easiest in history'.
So from the EU point of view the 'Brexit' the UK has been convulsing over was always a fantasy based on false premises, like 350 million we send to EU can be spent on the NHS - with no mention of what's on the other side of that ledger.

I dont see facts, information and common sense triumphing here though. From what I can tell after the farce of the last two years, anecdotally anyway, the mood in England is hardening towards Brexit not softening on it. }}}