Re: We're all doomed! Doomed I say- the Corona virus thread for panicking in!

[Lancebloke]

Firstly, I am sorry to hear about that. Whatever the circumstances losing someone like that is a sad thing.

On the general covid thread, you reply sounds more like a rant rather than a coherent argument.

The evidence so far has led to huge disagreements between medical staff and big differences in the way certain countries have responded. Why is your way right and theirs wrong.... most of them have access to far more information than you do and yet they are still vastly different.

If the disease is highly infectious as it seems, we are not going to get rid of it.

If getting the disease results in immunity (anecdotal evidence about catching it twice so far has been shown untrue) then the herd immunity thing has legs.

Vaccines are on their way apparently... but why do vaccines normally take much longer to develop? To monitor for long term effectiveness and to monitor for long term side effects. So is a reliable vaccine really achievable this year... or even next year? Who knows.

Will we have a massive breakthrough in treating the virus or is the news this week going to be it?

And seriously, the rich/poor argument is really not relevant in this discussion. If both poverty and the disease impact the poor the most then surely getting the balance of the economy versus the immediate virus impact right is even more important to the poorest.

Either 5% more die in the next year or 15% more die in the next 10 years (made up numbers as nobody knows)... what is the better outcome. Every single one of those is a person with loved ones, hopes and dreams etc. So what is the better outcome?

And if you think I dont get it because you think I am relatively well off and am in the "fuck the poor" camp then it may help to know that a family member tried to commit suicide last week because of mental health associated with being locked down. And as you well know, anything I may or may not have had no bearing on how sick I became recently, or that people that I work with have been sick and many of us know people that have died from covid.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ My point about poverty and the virus is if you look at the figures ethnic minorities and the poor are disproportionately effected. As with all illness poverty makes it worse.

The evidence so far has led to huge disagreements between medical staff and big differences in the way certain countries have responded. - Lance

Yes there have been disagreements, but a lot of the numbers are in now for the initial global outbreak, Sweden is now saying they got it wrong going for herd immunity and there have been too many deaths there. Countries who went into total lockdown and social distancing where necessary enforced by law, have had better outcomes so far.

You are right the hope of a vaccine this year seems pretty unlikely to me, even next year would be pushing it. And in those circumstances just opening everything back up, regardless of ability to maintain those social distancing rules, is an unwarranted risk on the information we have.
And yes Lockdown is hard, damn hard, I live alone so its effectively self isolation for me, I lost my job and I dont even know if I can pay my basic bills come the end of this month. I am in a considerably worse and more stressful position than I was in for sure.
And thats particuarly hard on those who may already have underlying mental health issues, theres no pretendng this is not difficult and doesnt have risks too.
But suicide has plaqued the poor for a very long time, in my own life Ive known three people who have taken their own life, and Im not even including my own grandfather in that because I was only a few years old at the time and dont remember him really.
Ive worked most of my life with mental illness and in care, I know how hard this can be on those folk. But these sort of tragic things have always been higher among the poor, and when this is over it will still be that way I guarantee you.
My point about the middle and upper classes is that whilst these things obviously can and do effect them too, and Im sorry to hear about your family member, but its not to the regularity or the scale it occurs among the poor, even when there isnt a virus- and the concern now seems to me more focused on those upper classes of folk than it is on the increased risks the virus presents to the poorest and vulnerable. The middle and upper classes are hurting equally for once too, so something has to be done about it.
When the poor were hurting before just from being poor no one cared. Or will again afterwards.}}

[Lancebloke]

I dont disagree with the statement about poorer being impacted most.

My point is that the decision on what we do now will still impact the poor the most. Either more covid deaths or more "other deaths." So it in the best interests of groups hardest hit that we get this right... and there is no clear answer on getting it right.

In 5 years or 10 years time the US may be the model. Get the infection through your population quickly and deal as best you can but keep the economy going so you can ensure less poverty and less longer term issues.

Germany or Sweden or New Zealand may be in the middle of a 5th or 6th significant wave by then, with much longer term damage to the economy and maybe still having major issues with the virus.

We don't know!

It is very easy to see 450,000 deaths and blame everyone now. I just wonder who we will be blaming at the next election, and then the next etc.

[halfwise]

Petty, I don't think you read my post at all.  Oklahoma has as many contact tracers as cases: that means they have more ability to control this thing than anywhere else except perhaps Korea and New Zealand.  And I spoke approvingly of Oklahoma (not ALL places) reopening because of that.  I DID NOT speak approvingly of their holding a rally.

And quoting Trump as though he represents the thoughts of an entire country is simply insulting.

Places like Oklahoma that have very low case loads and the tracking in place to handle it (though I don't know how good a job they actually do managing the cases they have) should reopen.  This maybe applies to 25% of the US right now.  Some places in the US are reopening in a wildly stupid way either because we have no decent leadership at the top, or shockingly - they are ignoring the very loosely enforced guidance from the top and opening even if they don't meet those guidelines.  But I don't think Oklahoma is one of those places.

However they are jumping off their narrow path by allowing a rally.

Update: local reporting shows much larger infection rates than in the data base I use. compare

https://www.kosu.org/post/coronavirus-oklahoma-latest

to

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/oklahoma

Perhaps the difference is whether they are talking about new cases or current cases. The graphs are not clear on this.

{{ Sorry Halfy, but I think you have your head in the sand with the rest of your country. Though especially your President.

"We are starting up and it's going to be very, very strong. We're very close to a vaccine and we're very close to therapeutics, really good therapeutics. But even without that, I don't like to talk about that because it's fading away. It's going to fade away."

Yeah cause thats what covid type viruses do, they just fade away, vanish all on their own. Thats why  no-ones heard of flu since 1920.  }}

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ And you believe they even have accurate records of how many people have it? Given many will show no obious symptoms. My guess is there is more cases than tracers even know to trace, increasingly so-

'Oklahoma saw the highest percentage spike in coronavirus cases in the US on Monday, only days before Donald Trump’s first campaign rally since march is planned to go ahead in Tulsa on Saturday.
Figures showed 591 new cases Covid-19 recorded in Oklahoma on Monday, a 7.7 per cent increase, according to Centres for Disease Control....the state has seen more than 7,800 confirmed cases and 359 deaths as of Wednesday.'- The Independent

Doesnt sound under control to me. Sounds like cases are increasing even as they open up more and more.

I quote Trump as he does represent America and the direction of its travel on the virus- to open up even as cases increase. }}

[Lancebloke]

Fuck sake.

So... I have been in hospital a few times with the issues I have had over the last couple of months.

The last time I was in an acute respiratory area where they did all sorts of tests, including a second covid swab (although it had been a long time and we expected it to come back negative... it did).

They referred me on to get an echo done to check that the pain I get in my chest/lung area was not heart related. Current diagnosis is post-viral fatigue and related issues (ongoing cough, sore throat etc).

Phoned yesterday and they took me through a covid checklist. I had to say yes to some questions because I do still have those symptoms... that is what happens with post-viral problems.

Well.... three phone calls later and having had them look through my entire history my echo got cancelled and I have to have a third covid swab. Then they can carry on with other checks.

Seriously! It is well known that people that have had covid (and other respiratory issues) continue to have these symptoms for months. It is well known that post-viral fatigue/syndrome impacts about 20% of people that have respiratory infections.

And we wonder why people don't go to hospital or are getting delays in critical treatment. I have been to the specialists in acute respiratory diseases and somehow the standard checklist knows better!



So right now I dont know when I will get swab number 3 and then how long it will take to get back on for my echo which was due in 24 mins from now!

[Mrs Figg]

@Lance. Sounds like the NHS is in meltdown Lance. They don't know their arse from their elbow. It will get sorted though, don't worry, they get there in the end.

@Petty I agree with you 200% and there is another factor which the general middle-class population doesn't, or didn't, give a toss about and that is the high % of BAME doctors and nurses dying. That poor woman who was spat on and then died, the police dropped the case until the BLM protests. funny that isn't it.

Lets look at the facts, herd immunity kills thousands more than ANY kind of lockdown, whether the lockdown is hard as in China, S Korea or Italy and Spain, or soft like in the UK. The thousands killed is ENORMOUS (65,000 in the UK) and could easily be avoided by basic PPE. Masks worn in public is saving lives and doesnt shut down the ecomomy.
The old, sick, vulnerable are going to die in tens of thousands if they are not given basic PPE or shielding. As they are economically inactive the 'saving the economy' argument does not hold up water, as they have nothing to do with industry and job losses. As soon as the virus is down to double or single figures the job market should slowly recover.
The countries with most deaths are those with no mask wearing and no lockdown from March to June. Sweden is admitting it was a disaster, Trump doesn't care, and Cummings it was deliberate culling of the old to save pension expenditure.
A no deal Brexit will be more damaging to the economy that covid could ever be. Covid will cease to be a threat once there is a vaccine, and countries like NZ (hard lockdown) are already bouncing back to normality.
conclusion. 3 months of hard lockdown followed by gradual opening with continued mask wearing and sensible social compliance, is the way to heal the economy as soon as humanly possible, it cuts out hundreds of thousands of deaths. The real disaster is yet to come. Tory hard Brexit will crush the UK for the next 30 years.

[Lancebloke]

How do you know herd immunity kills more than a lockdown?

I understand people may have a view on it but I dont understand how you can state that as a fact?

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Sorry to hear about your ongoing problems Lance, I'd have hoped the NHs would have been mor dilligent and more focuse don such followup tretment for those who have suffered already and not fully recovered.
But then this is what the Tories have done to the English NHS. And one of the many reasons I could never vote Tory.

As to you question- so far countries with strict lockdowns have had fewer deaths from the virus and lower infection rates (with Swedens health minister for example regretting their herd immunity approach as having led to more deaths than needed be). Whether that will hold true long term is another question, but it seems to be the case on the information we currently have. }}

[halfwise]

Lance is asking about the deaths due to a sluggish economy. Very difficult to evaluate since it's multi-tentacled. It's not a question that should be brushed off.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ I dont think anyone is brushng it off Halfy- just as you say its almost impossible to quantify.
You can go on excess deaths- you look at how many have died since the virus and lockdown in various countries, and you compare death rates for that period to previous years with no virus (Uk is about 52% more, Germany in the 40's and France high 20's)
But as different countries record death from covid differently there is no way to know for sure how many of those excess deaths are directly from the virus, and how many are indirectly from the lockdown or folk not going for treatment for other things out of fear of covid, or from suicide.
The point being at this point in time there is simply no way to know or seperate those out. And as there is no way to know I dont think you can make informed policy based on it.
We do know that lockdown and social distancing and masks greatly reduce the transmitability of the virus however- that is a fact we can at least work with and act on. And notable that countries in lockdown but with fewer covid deaths (like France) also have a lower excess death percentage that say the UK, which was slow to act and enforce lockdown rules.}}

[halfwise]

Hmm...comparison of excess between countries with different strategies is a clever way to go about it. Deserves a larger study. The percentages you quote are large enough to account for annual statistical variation I'd think.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ BBC news did a good piece on it Halfy }}

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/53067897/coronavirus-how-many-more-people-are-dying

[Mrs Figg]

How do you know herd immunity kills more than a lockdown?

I understand people may have a view on it but I dont understand how you can state that as a fact?

Just looking at the facts, Sweden has a herd immunity strategy and has many more deaths and one of the worst infection cases in Europe, they have also admitted it is not working. Lockdown has proven to be successful. NZ is free of it.

[Lancebloke]

Yes... but all you are doing is comparing deaths due to covid (according to those that are reported properly).

What else do we need to take in to account?

- The length of time it takes to develop a safe and sustainable vaccine.
- The likelihood of therapeutic drugs that will become available.
- The ability to stop massive outbreaks in the future from imported cases.
- The impact of a severe downturn in the economy (long term decreases in quality of life, increases in poverty, reduction in quality and quantity of services).
- The impact on services while you lockdown (about 15k of the 65k excess deaths in the uk are not covid related).

I am sure I missed plenty here, but you cannot call NZ a success yet. Not until the disease is gone or sufficiently treatable for normal life to resume.

[Pettytyrant101]

- The length of time it takes to develop a safe and sustainable vaccine.

{{ Probably a minimum of 1-2 years.

- The likelihood of therapeutic drugs that will become available.

Better weve already found 2 that help a reasonable amountin cutting deaths, reasonable chance more will come along within a year.

- The ability to stop massive outbreaks in the future from imported cases.

Entirely reliant on the first two points, and how much we open our borders and let folk in and where from.

- The impact of a severe downturn in the economy

Can be offset by giving everyonea living wage. The economics of which are viable. Tories are just fundementally opposed to it as socialist.

- The impact on services while you lockdown (about 15k of the 65k excess deaths in the uk are not covid related).

Essential services have remained in operation and will continue to do so regardless of lockdown. Not sure where the 15k comes from as even different parts of the Uk record the deaths differently, Scotland for example includes covid related deaths, where it not the virus that gets you but either complications it causes or some other adverse effect, England doesnt. But even taken as, that means 15k have died from lockdown, but 50k have died from the virus- so lockown is considerably less deadly still. And without a lockdown those covid numbers would be at least double if not many times more.}}

[halfwise]

But they only did 3 countries.  Need to do a lot more to compare across lockdown effects, and maybe try to adjust for age distribution.

Lance - the comparison is to ALL causes of death. The idea is to find the overall effect of a lockdown. Of course these things take time to play out: doubtful if economic problems show up in health effects as quickly as covid, but at least it's a clean numerical comparison. Do the same thing for the next couple of years.

{{ BBC news did a good piece on it Halfy }}

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/53067897/coronavirus-how-many-more-people-are-dying

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Trumps stupidty seems to know no bounds. Now he says that there is a chance some of those attending his rally will catch covid there but says "it's a very small percentage."

Like that make it fine if only a few die from it, or pass it onto others who die from it, so long as he gets his pr moment. Its insanity. And to do this to your own most loyal followrs is even worse. You have alunatic runnin gthe country and by defacto the world (well not that Aerica is any more, not now, its a joke).

'Trump also claimed, according to the Journal, that some Americans wore face masks as a political statement against him and not as a preventative measure.'

His ego is almost as limitless as his stupidity it seems.

And on the safety of Oklahoma-

'Oklahoma averaged about 203 new cases per day over the week ending June 17, which is up approximately 110% from the previous seven-day period.

'As of Thursday morning, Tulsa County currently has the most cases — 1,825 total — of any county in the state, according to the Oklahoma State Department of Health. New cases in Tulsa County have also been climbing, and the county is now seeing its highest seven-day average for new cases at 73.9, according to the Tulsa Health Department.'

So not at all then.
I suppose you could be harsh and say at least there might be a chance Trump will get it and die, and save the world any more of this dangerous lunatic. Or that those insane enough to not only still be devoutly believing this clown but putting themselves and everyone they know at risk by attending, deserve what they get.  
Personally I see them more as gullible fools though and they dont deserve to be seriously ill, or die for their gullibility, but Trump, he is the snake oil salesmen taking advantage of the gullible and he is 100% responsible.}}

[Lancebloke]

OK... I give up. Halfy seems to be the only one getting what I am saying here.

[Pettytyrant101]

If getting the disease results in immunity (anecdotal evidence about catching it twice so far has been shown untrue) then the herd immunity thing has legs.- Lance

{{ seems getting it leads to very short term immunity only. }}

Researchers from China found that those who recover from the virus may only have protective antibodies for two to three months following infection, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Nature Medicine.
"We observed that IgG levels and neutralizing antibodies in a high proportion of individuals who recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection start to decrease within 2–3 months after infection," the researchers wrote.'

[Mrs Figg]

I reckon once the 1st wave has been quashed there will be many small fires springing up and being put out for months. But if governments don't bother to test/track/trace, then those small fires will become a 2nd wave and the possibility of total lockdown again. Now stop/start is far more damaging to an economy than gradual easing and eventual numbers in single figures. Herd immunity allows the virus the upper hand, it is allowed to rage through the community with the vulnerable getting the shit end of the stick.

[halfwise]

If it's mutating than herd immunity won't do much good unless travel is restricted. I really think we need a 3 week planet wide lock-down - educate people that if they do it right just this once it can all be over. But it has to be strict.

[azriel]

I agree it has GOT to be strict. Curfews as well. But what happens to the people who see this as hysteria ? who wont conform ? What punishment will they get that wont incite anarchy ? We cant be all 'loosey Goosey' & rely on a vaccine. So far in our razzle dazzle medical world we are told that vaccines take years to come on the market. Even killer diseases like cancer, MS, & hundreds others are not hurried by the need for this miracle drug, people wait & die. What makes any of us think a knight in shinning armour armed with a syringe will gallop over the horizon on a pure white stallion ? Because I don't live that far away from our local hospital we do have a few nurses living here, theres also plenty of care homes. I spoke to a Care nurse this morning as she was coming home completely worn out from night duty. A patient who was quite old & doddery passed away in the night, the whole place is being scrubbed till the paint peels off. They had self assessment kits to see if anyone has it, got it or is a carrier. The kits were faulty & had to be sent back. She doesn't know if shes had it, got it or what. All shes got is her tiny Yorkshire Terrier to go home to as she sent her kids to stay with relatives. A lot of the nurses here want the truth about this virus & the cause of patient deaths. No one is being checked & it appears on death certificates as cause off. That hoiks up the statistics & spreads fear. How can the nurses reassure people if they have no clue ? Winter isn't here yet, the long dark nights, who will be breaking rules when it gets dark ?

[Lancebloke]

Halfy - If only. I saw a report out of Yemen recently where people are either dropping dead from suspected covid or getting bombed by Saudis. They had 1 doctor being interviewed who just didn't know what to do with himself.

In that kind of place (northern Syria, southern Afghanistan, central America etc) there is just no way that could happen and with mass refugee movement...

Petty - still too early to tell on immunity as lots of conflicting reports. I have seen some that suggest immune response is similar to that of SARS which lasts for a few years.

Some people do not produce and antibody response at all!

And if the bloody thing mutates then who knows!

[halfwise]

Oh yeah, the refugees. The plan is based on a stable world, which we've maybe had a few years of in the last century?