Re: We're all doomed! Doomed I say- the Corona virus thread for panicking in!

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ To our US folk please stay safe. Ignore your leaders and act were posible as if a full lockdown is in effect. }}

"total confirmed cases of the virus in the U.S. passed the 2 million mark and deaths neared 113,000 in the U.S. Wednesday -- with infections spiking in parts of the country while numbers dropped in Europe.
“Even if we don’t have increasing cases, even if we keep things flat, it’s reasonable to expect that we’re going to hit 200,000 deaths sometime during the month of September. And that’s just through September. The pandemic won’t be over in September.”
The U.S. has seen a 36.5 percent increase in daily cases in recent days...the high death toll was related to how the U.S. was the only major country that reopened without getting its infection level to a controlled level, which is people testing positive at a rate of 5 percent or lower for at least 14 days, Reuters reported.
the spike in cases is causing...experts to worry about how authorities in the U.S. are getting rid of virus restrictions too early.
New Mexico, Utah, and Arizona each saw its number of coronavirus cases increase by 40 percent last week, according to Reuters.
The latter two states, plus Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, and Florida -- all set new highs Wednesday based on seven-day rolling-case averages.'- Fox

[Mrs Figg]

fuqing unbelievable stuff.   South America has raging infections as well. It is weird that all the countries with populist right wing leaders have had the worst response. its odd, very odd. The UK is one of the very worst because they lie and pretend to care. After this is over I hope there are prosecutions and trials Nuremberg style. What a fantastic country New Zealand is though, amazing woman that Jacinda.

In contrast Tuscany had 1, yes one death, in the whole of the region this week. We had one of the most severe lockdowns in the world, similar to Wuhan, and now we are getting in single figures. It is no time to lower the guard though, because that would be a terrible mistake. We are still wearing masks and social distancing, and we will continue probably until there is a vaccine. It is still fucking scary out there.

[halfwise]

Petty - The governments are probably only paying attention to the death rates: Only Arizona spiked while Texas and New Mexico flattened, which means any more loosening up and it will rise.  How the death rates have remained flat while estimated infections rise is beyond me.  It's possible the estimations are off because the confirmed infections are flat.

EDIT: I got tests and infections mixed up.  I'm not seeing clear spikes in infections or deaths except in Arizona.  There are some increases which could easily be statistical fluctuations, so we'll see how it bears out.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You can go state by state.  May need to click twice.

[halfwise]

A recent report shows that reopening the US isn't the problem, it's the lack of any real attempt to put suppression measures in place that's the problem. The federal government of course has done squat with Trump in power, but the states themselves twiddled their thumbs during the lockdown and there is no real contact tracing procedures in place to squash new infections.

https://www.businessinsider.com/attention-shifted-away-from-coronavirus-doesnt-mean-it-is-over-2020-6

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ I am concerned you are underestimating the threat Halfy.
The US now has 2,048,986 cases and has 114,669 dead (and I strongly suspect that death toll is being understated in comparison to other countries infection v death rates) thats a lot more than other developed nations.

We are still in Lockdown in Scotland, and we went into lockdown a good bit before the US did, and you are lifting it already. Not to mention all the protests and gatherings in the US right now.
I fear there is going to be a massive resurgence in the States before this is over. }}

[Mrs Figg]

New Italian studies show that the Licorice root can ward off coronavirus, so I will be mainly buying licorice sticks this week.   cant stand the stuff personally, but what the heck, if it works.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Bag of allsorts it is then! }}

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Thought this was a nice illusrtation, produced by a coronvirus monitoring group in California- }}

[halfwise]

No, that's not what the data is showing for most states, but it does seem to be true for California. That second plot looks like accumulated cases. Can you provide the reference for that?

This is the plot of deaths (the most trustworthy data) for California:


But for comparison here it is for New York, dominated by New York City:


The nation as a whole falls in between:


All data and estimates are from https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Their's plots cases not deaths, whch would make a massive difference Id guess, as fewer die than catch it.
The general pointof the illustration would still hold true even on your charts- that your current position is higher than it was when you felt a lockdown was necessary. Even on your death based charts.}}

[halfwise]

Deaths and cases should be proportional, but actual case counts can be wildly off because people don't necessarily come in and the fraction that comes in changes with social mood. Death rates can also change as the more susceptible population succumbs, but since the US only has an estimated 5% accumulated infection ratio that's not really a factor yet. Death rates are what you should look at, not case counts. The huge difference in accuracy is worth the roughly 2-week delay.

New York is being data driven and only began to open up (cautiously) when the rates matched the lock-down rates. That's not true of other states. I'm surprised California is so terrible on this issue, since they tend to be more data driven with their regulation. Perhaps it's because they were the first to lock down and the population is fed up, I dunno. Or they think they've got tracking under control, but I doubt it.

[halfwise]

I didn't want to know this.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-getting-sick-coronavirus-spreading-115751594.html

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ No good news Halfy. I am increasingly concenred America is more worried about the economy and Trumps relelection than the virus. The haste to reopen after what seems, in comparison to the rest of us, a woefully short lockdown in the US, combined withthe recent mas protests seem to sending the US backwards in the fight against Covid.

'According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) obtained by Yahoo News, the U.S. has seen a 36.5 percent increase in daily cases in recent days'- Fox News

Thats a big uptick. }}

[halfwise]

So why does Fox news have to rely on data obtain by Yahoo news from a national agency? You'd think it would be easy for any news agency to get such data. Trump has muzzled our leading disease control organ because he doesn't like what they do or say. Information has to be pried out of them. That he can get away with this with so little complaint from congress is mind boggling.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ That struck me as odd too Halfy- like news agencies are having to uncover this information as if its secret, when it should be main news and freely available. }}

[Mrs Figg]

I didn't want to know this.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-getting-sick-coronavirus-spreading-115751594.html

I am still at Naomi Campbell levels of paranoia in public places. I intend to wear a mask until there is a vaccine, and I don't give a shit if it looks weird. The other night I had to go to A&E for 12 hours because I have vertigo and I had to have exams, it was an utter nightmare, but I wore a mask the whole time. It was horrible and I am still freaking out.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Some good news at last! }}

'A cheap and widely available drug can help save the lives of patients seriously ill with coronavirus.
The low-dose steroid treatment dexamethasone is a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus, UK experts say.
It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.
For patients on ventilators, it cut the risk of death from 40% to 28%.
For patients needing oxygen, it cut the risk of death from 25% to 20%.
Chief investigator Prof Peter Horby said: "This is the only drug so far that has been shown to reduce mortality - and it reduces it significantly. It's a major breakthrough."
"The treatment is up to 10 days of dexamethasone and it costs about £5 per patient. So essentially it costs £35 to save a life. This is a drug that is globally available."
When appropriate, hospital patients should now be given it without delay, Prof Landray said.
But people should not go out and buy it to take at home.
Dexamethasone does not appear to help people with milder symptoms of coronavirus who do not need help with their breathing.'- BBC News

[halfwise]

That's good news but not VERY good news. VERY good news would be cutting down death rates by 90%. A couple months ago I saw some doctors were trying steroids to bring down inflammation as a substitute for ventilators. I couldn't figure out why this didn't take over the planet, but I suppose they got lucky with their first few patients and it wasn't as good as they thought.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ America- the land where pretending the virus isnt happening is same as a cure! With the attitude being displayed by US leaders, youre fucked.

'Authorities in Arizona, Florida and Texas have reported their largest daily increases in coronavirus infections.
On Tuesday Florida reported 2,783 new cases, Texas 2,622 and Arizona 2,392...lockdown restrictions have been eased to help boost their economies.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis bushed aside claims that the spike in cases was being caused by businesses reopening, and said the state would not be closing parts of its economy again.
“We’re not shutting down,” he said. “You have to have society function.”
US Vice-President Mike Pence has published an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal saying that concern about the virus is "overblown".
President Donald Trump is expected to hold a public rally in Oklahoma this weekend, despite infections continuing to rise in the state.'- BBC

Its getting to the point now where one is inclined to think, fuck 'em, if a country is this stupid, and for stupid idealogical reasons, then they are going to get exactly what they deserve.
Sadly in this case thats probably going to be thousands more US citizens dead. Sad to know the lives that will be lost thanks to this, but hey, if America wont take the threat seriously thats America's look out. }}

[halfwise]

if you look at Oklahoma they are only halfway down from their peak, so it looks bad.  But if you look closer, at the peak the entire state only had 8 deaths/day, and are now down to 3 deaths/day and 360 infections for the whole state.  Turns out they have 350 contact tracers in place, almost 1:1 ratio of tracers to cases!

You can understand why they may be shrugging their shoulders.  I was sort of blown away that they'd be holding a rally at first, but diving down into the data I think they are absolutely right to open up.   Since they have contact tracing in place they could handle ordinary case loads.   Oklahoma's a pretty sparse state. A rally is pretty sketchy though.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/oklahoma

North Caroline on the other hand has over 1000 deaths/day and is still going up.  They turned Trump down for a rally (actually they told him he couldn't get exactly what he wanted, which is effectively the same thing).  Yes, America is stupid.  But not as stupid as you make out.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Sorry Halfy, but I think you have your head in the sand with the rest of your country. Though especially your President.

"We are starting up and it's going to be very, very strong. We're very close to a vaccine and we're very close to therapeutics, really good therapeutics. But even without that, I don't like to talk about that because it's fading away. It's going to fade away."

Yeah cause thats what covid type viruses do, they just fade away, vanish all on their own. Thats why no-ones heard of flu since 1920.  }}

[Lancebloke]

As much as I think the US generally (not everywhere in the US) has handled this extremely poorly, i actually think the best thing may be to open up now in the same way that I think the UK probably shouldn't look to go back in to lockdown if this flares up again.

We are already counting 15,000 excess deaths on top of the 40,000 covid deaths. The excess number will get worse through lack of other hospital/GP access/fear/mental health and longer term through increase in poverty and lower quality of life.

If this is something you don't stop in its tracks quickly (e.g. New Zealand with much less dense population centres) then you need to turn focus to slowing it down while the medicine catches up.

Also, re the flu comment we really have no idea about the future of this virus yet. Common flu mutates very quickly but the reason it is less deadly is because our bodies are used to fighting it. Something like the Spanish flu was devastating but it burned itself out by not adapting/mutating in the same way.

Covid-19 could go either way, it either burns out or becomes a season thing as new mutations circulate the community. So the US may actually be getting ahead of the game here with the good old "herd immunity" thing going on.

Just look at Beijing right now. How will they ever expect to keep this under control when they open borders again. And they will have to do that at some point, as will we all.

[Pettytyrant101]

the US may actually be getting ahead of the game here with the good old "herd immunity" thing going on.- Lance

{{Thats a hell of a gamble with peoples lives on no evidence it would work. Right now there is not even evidence yet of immunity after youve had it, and ancedotal evidence is pointing to folk being able to get it again. If that turns out to be the case then herd immunity wont do any good. I certainly dont think its a policy to pursue until we do know for sure one way or another.
As to borders, I dont think reopening them is a good idea, Beijing is proving that right now. We either have to hope it does burn out and not act like other covids, mutate and hang about, get a very good treatment with much higher survival rates than current, or a vaccine. Until one of those scenarios occurs you open back up your signing peoples death certificate.
We can afford to that. Yes this is costing a fortune, but its still less than the money mysteriously found for the last few wars weve gone to. If we can afford billions to kill folk, we can afford billions to save them too. }}

[Lancebloke]

The evidence right now Petty is that excess deaths in the UK are 50% of the covid deaths. Unemployment is increasing rapidly. The economy is crashing. Mortality from covid is less than 1%.

To quote ambassador Spock, "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few."

If we are storing up a massive issue that will cost far more lives over the next decade then we shouldn't just be focusing on the current situation.

Yes... these people aren't just numbers but so are all those that will be impacted.

We really don't know enough about the virus as you say so it is a gamble either way and no answer will be right until we have the benefit of hindsight. They both have huge risks associated.

That is why I say the US may be getting ahead of the game. Long term these decisions may save hundred of thousands of lives... they may cost them.

It is easy to criticise but I think that critique is not always warranted when the people criticising themselves have no idea if it is right or not.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ There are things we do know about it now though. It is hugely transmitable, more so than your average virus. It spreads particuarly fast where folk are gathered in numbers or not social distancing , wearing masks and the like.
So we can negate those risks pretty effectively with care and by keeping things closed where its impossible to meet those criteria. Trump holding a rally indoors, in a confinde space with thousands of folk crammed in yelling and cheering is a recipe for utter disaster based on what we do know.

As to excess deaths- I am inclined to think this is hypocrisy. The poor and working poor have had to deal with most of these issues all their lives, suicide, ill health, higher mortality rates, dying young, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence and all the other streess that come with, and are made worse by poverty, especially if you have a family.
Now its happening to the middle and upper classes too it's suddenly an issue. No one gave a shit when it was just us poor dying though did they? And when its over however that happens they will go back to not giving shit again.
And if opening up the economy and everything else exposes society to the virus again in numbers, its the poor and most vulernable it will hit hardest yet again. And hard not to think thats part of the calculation- most of those who will die are not useful or important or valuable anyway, being either poor or elderly or in ill health already- to the middle and upper classes at least that probably does make them expendable for your greater good. So for them maybe it is a risk worth taking.
Speaking as someone who is about to get ready to go pay my respects at a funeral for someone Ive known all my life, I am inclined to think these people are valuable and not expendable for someones elses greater good, or so the rich can keep making profits.
And I think that has a lot to do with the push to reopen when the risks are so unknown, the rich are feeling it for once and they want us all back in our little mundane jobs, scraping a living on minimum wage so they can rake in their porfits once more.}}