Re: The Bigger, Badder, Even More Serious Thread

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ As a result of working with a fair few eastern europeans in my time as a care worker I have a lot of folk form that part of the world on my facebook feed, recently theyve filled up with messages like these-

'Need a flat to rent!
Two mothers and three children aged 11-14 from Ukraine. I am asking for help! Thank you in advance!!'

'Loving call "I'm coming back from medical." If you're going there bring baby syrups for fever and energy bars. And juices these tubes are for little ones. They are all sick . There's nothing left in nearby pharmacies"'

'Hello everyone, I came yesterday from Ukraine with my son. I need a J O B I taught Polish in Ukraine. I have higher education . I am a graduate of university of Wrocław. Educational Studies. I speak Polish, Ukrainian and Russian'

'Urgently needed sofa beds for families from Ukraine. Info pm me'

'5 people from Ukraine are looking for an apartment. They don't believe it's possible anymore. Baby 3mce '

and so many more in similar vain. Its both heartbreaking at the tragedy of it, and uplifting in the help and generosity of strangers to fellow humans in trouble. }}

[Lancebloke]

On the other side of it, most people in Russia seem to think nothing is going on. Only those that are savvy enough to know how to get news outside of state media.

I don't think the people of Russia will be revolting any time soon... they really don't think anything bad is going on.

[halfwise]

NATO shouldn't have taken direct intervention off the table (even if it has no intention of direct conflict).

https://medium.com/@andersentda/game-theorists-nato-needs-to-convince-russia-everything-is-still-on-the-table-f0e2fb0eedf2

[Mrs Figg]

fucking hell, now they are bombing nuclear plants.

[halfwise]

Hitting the distribution points would have been just as effective. Our nukes outnumber Russia's 3 to 1, we should just tell him if so much as one pops off we'll obliterate anywhere he may be to a depth of 100 feet, and then roll in our tanks to chase them out. But somebody who comes across as unhinged needs to tell him that, or he won't believe it.

[azriel]

Halfy Troops in combat gear

[halfwise]

That would work. With helmets spinning around on the sticks on top.

[halfwise]

I think Ukraine should accept Russia's conditions....IF Russia will accept all reparations paid out of its seized assets. This will include rebuilding, financial living assistance while rebuilding, the cost of all weapons and ammunition purchases since the beginning of the build up, and $1 million for each person killed or permanently injured.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-115703035.html

[Mrs Figg]

I think so too. Ukraine should stop the war now before its destroyed like Syria. They are gallant and brave, its their fucking country and nobody wants them to lose, but they will, with millions of refugees, thousands dead and a destroyed land. All they need to do is let Putin think he has won, give him a way out, keep up the diplomatic pressures and some sanctions, and sooner or later Putin will either die or be got rid off. he is 69, he cant live forever, the Ukraines are facing overwhelming odds, and they need to play the long game, no matter how long it is, they will win in the end.

[halfwise]

Unfortunately it's an outcome that would make Putin popular among Russians. The money seized would almost all come from oligarchs, the people wouldn't feel it so would not resent it.

[Mrs Figg]

Some Russians, not all, and not the young. There is a rump of people who have drunk the Kool-Aid and they will never be reached, but kids with smart phones probably think differently. Any poll coming out of Russia saying Putin is popular needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. The propaganda and fear is so strong there is probably no way of knowing how people really feel.

[halfwise]

True, but I suspect such a result would still have a positive effect on his popularity in general, especially if the war is stopped soon.

[halfwise]

Former Russian foreign minister: "Russian tradition: It's more likely Putin's inner circle will overthrow him than tell him the truth."

[Lancebloke]

Well, if things are going as badly on the front lines as we are being told on this side then it might not be too long before that happens.

[halfwise]

Yes, I'm sure we're getting some spin as well. I've also seen analysis that "bogged down" transport lines are also consistent with standard timing for setting up camps in preparation for a long siege.

[Mrs Figg]

I have been following this lovely Russia man and his family for ages. He really is the proof that we are all the same no matter which country you come from and that ordinary people are just wanting peace and friendship. I am really worried about them using Youtube because of the crack-down, I think they have understood how dangerous it is to be talking to Westerners. I hope they are back soon. I find his videos heart-warming and fascinating.

[halfwise]

I've loved every Russian I've met, but admittedly travelers and ex-pats are a selective bunch. I hope these two don't get in trouble.

[Mrs Figg]

It makes me so sad to think of them struggling economically. I just wish I could help out some way.

[Lancebloke]

Bloody hell.... even the Irish seem to be thinking about their neutrality in the world.

I am really not sure Putin is going to get the outcome he was hoping for!

[halfwise]

If Russian money held in foreign banks is seized, and the ruble plummets, do those assets lose money? Do banks only hold money in their native currency? A question you are uniquely fit to answer Lance!

When all this is over I think the Oligarch's money should be used to rebuild Ukraine - it was never being spent on Russia anyway so won't hold back the Russian economy. Once trading and swift and such is reopened I would hope the Russian economy would rebound so the Russians don't continue to suffer for the actions of Putin.

I have to admit the Russian statement that they will pay off their foreign debts in Rubles is a clever slap back at the West.

[Mrs Figg]

yep all the oligarchs should rebuild Eukraine and the ordinary people in Russia ruined by the war should be compensated, above all farmers. Also Londongrad oligarchs should have their mansions seized and turned into affordable accommodation.

[Lancebloke]

If Russian money held in foreign banks is seized, and the ruble plummets, do those assets lose money?  Do banks only hold money in their native currency?  A question  you are uniquely fit to answer Lance!

They will hold funds in all sorts of currencies and the assets will lose value based on that currency. So if they hold any assets in roubles then these will be worth less.

That is one reason why assets are held in other things, currency, gold etc. The other being having funds in other currencies means they can pay debts that might only be payable in those currencies. Some debt providers won't deal in anything as volatile as the rouble so will only lend where pay back is in something stable like dollars or euros.

[Lancebloke]

yep all the oligarchs should rebuild Eukraine and the ordinary people in Russia ruined by the war should be compensated, above all farmers. Also Londongrad oligarchs should have their mansions seized and turned into affordable accommodation.

I think it is more likely they will be auctioned off to some other state that needs to clean up some money

[halfwise]

I'm guessing money savy oligarchs would probably have converted their currency upon deposit. So if their assets can be legally extracted for rebuilding it will be worth something, though I wonder if that can be done and what the process would be. Could take some time to work through the protective hurdles. Such things should NOT be easy to do. They may have to convict them separately of war crimes, but that looks murky since they weren't in positions of command.

[Mrs Figg]

Lance, a question to you because you are in this sector and have a unique insight. Do you see changes in the market and economy which are worrying?, apart obviously from the oil and gas situation which I guess is world wide, and the cost of living thing, but do you see the UK sliding back into 1970s style recession? I lived through the 70s recession and it was grim. There were regular blackouts, no electricity for weeks, it was a bit mediaeval. I was a child at the time so it was fun using candles to light the house, and there was no internet so didn't miss that either. But an adult would hate that. Do you think the economy will tank.