Britain at a crossroads - United Kingdom general election June 8 2017

{{Corbyn in his speech after winning his seat has said May should resign and make way for a new government- seems a bit premature but shows how he thinks things are going to go. }}}

{{May says country needs stability and so if Tories have most votes she will be PM- presumably in a minority if need be - guess there is her response to Corbyn!}}

I'm glad that Corbyn proved more electable than I had expected, and that Theresa May proved to be such a horrendously awful campaigner, but the odds of a "progressive alliance" taking power still seem very unlikely. While the Conservatives will probably fail to win an outright majority, 312 would be sufficient to pass a Queen's speech if they can come to a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP (after taking into account Sinn Fein's abstentionism). It seems likely that the Tories will manage to make that.

Whether or not the knives come out for May just yet, I can't imagine many in the Conservative Party wanting to run another election with her in charge.

{{Salmond just lost his seat to the Tories in Aberdeen. Seems the tories are taking back the areas they used to be strong in- the south and the northeast in the main- the oil areas and the farming areas. Also the areas that voted strongest against independence.
That's two big losses for the SNP in terms of personalities- Salmond and Robertson- Salmond I'm less bothered about as he had his day as was more prone to sticking his oar in these days than anything else- but Robertson was a good Parliamentarian. }}}}

So with 643/650 constituencies reporting, the results stand at:

• Conservatives: 313
  
• Labour: 260
  
• SNP: 35
  
• Lib Dems: 12
  
• DUP: 10
  
• Sinn Fein: 7
  
• Plaid Cymru: 4
  
• Greens: 1
  
• Independent: 1

Tories are guaranteed to need help (most likely the DUP) to pass a Queen's Speech, even after taking into account the slightly lower threshold caused by Sinn Fein not taking their seats. Lots more to unpack, particularly regarding vote share and the collapse of UKIP, but I'm probably gonna turn in soon.

Awww. Sturgeon needs some time to think.

Maybe she should stop stirring the fucking pot for 10 minutes!!

Seems May will hold on with her fingernails, which is a shame as I think both Europe and the UK would have been pretty well served by a so-called "progressive alliance" at this point. Still, this is not a tenable position for a tory pm who ran on a platform of extending her majority and strengthening her mandate. The party will get rid of her if she doesn't walk. (Considering the tories act in any way rationally. And who says they will. There is also the question of who would take over. A chance at upsetting the status quo (which they won't go for) is Ruth Davidson.)

The UK wide split is pretty expected. It shows a country that is deeply divided, and, which might go unnoticed, where the majority of the popular vote went to so-called progressive parties. This seems indicative of a wider political split in the UK population.

Scotland and NI seem to have split along the lines of the primary issue at hand being potential independence. In that context the steps back of the SNP are not surprising. People will sing the praises of the Conservatives, but the fact is they mostly regained ground running as a Scottish pro-Union party and both Labour and the Library Dens regained ground as well. If you look at the popular vote it closely mirrors the proportions of the vote in many similarsmaller countries around the EU. A sign of a healthy democracy.

Also glad the Greens gained a seat. But all in all a day of could  haves for anyone with progressive views. The tories have massively misrun the country, and it only just didn't come back to bite them.

Library Dens

Liked it so much I kept it.

good news and bad news.
good news Corbyn won the moral victory and young people turned out to vote.
good news its a hung parliament and the nasty party has no mandate to rule.
good news they don't have the mandate for hard brexit or austerity
good news it puts paid to Indyref 2.
bad news a weak Sturgeon lets nasty party back in Scotland and not enough SNP for an alliance with Labour.
bad news more Tories in Scotland.
bad news the Tories still have power.


I am really hoping for a progressive alliance.

Just as Brexit was a harbinger for Trump, I'm hoping this Brit election indicates the Republicans being thrown out of the majority at our 2018 elections.

yep that would be good.

halfwise wrote:Just as Brexit was a harbinger for Trump, I'm hoping this Brit election indicates the Republicans being thrown out of the majority at our 2018 elections.

You need them out of the House and Senate too!

That's what I meant by out of the majority.

{{I think the SNP result needs taken in context- the last election was an exception not the norm- prior to it the most MP's the SNP had ever had was 11, and that was the only time they had ever got double figures.
They went from 11 to an unprecedented by anyone 56 in a freak result largely dictated by the unique circumstances surrounding that election.
They now have 35 seats making them the largest party in Scotland and with more seats than the next two parties combined- after being in power here for ten years.
I reckon if you had told the SNP that prior to the post indie election they'd have been over the moon. And if thats the sort of level their support is going to settle at for UK elections then being the largest party with the most seats is not exactly a bad result. Something May would chew her own arms off for right now.

Did a 2nd indy ref play into it- yes but mainly in terms of confused messaging- a lot of folk I spke to were under the impression form the press if the SNP won the same sort of numbers again they were would another referendum almost immediately- which has never been policy but became the popular media narrative. Also May called this election in part to counter Sturgeons 2nd referendum gambit- which was just a card to play in Brexit negotiations.
Its an open question if reducing the SNP majority by 22 is worth losing her Parliamentary majority over when she could just have been less stubborn to start with an involved the devolved parliaments in Brexit instead of insulting them.
A more interesting question for Scottish politics on the UK level is why did those who drifted back from the SNP go as often to Tories as to Labour? And why did the Lib Dems or Greens not really benefit? (though with the last two a first past the post system for Westminster doesn't help them}}

I think if anyone had mentioned a coalition to the conservatives before the election they would have been laughed out of the room. But I guess that is the relentless search for power Nick Clegg talked about.

How May can expect to run the country, let alone her own party, with any hint of authority after this disaster of an election is the most preposterous part.

Well, these results are interesting, exciting, confusing and mildly terrifying, I thought the Brexit result was a shock and took some time to digest...but this?

UKIP wiped out, Lib Dems loosing ground (very shocked to see Clegg get the boot)

SNP down by 22 (with all three Unionist parties in Scotland seeing a resurgence in some areas-if the vote hadn't be split so heavily between Labour and Conservatives in many seats they may have lost a few more), Scottish Tories up by 12!

Massive Youth turnout and Corbyn's Labour growing massively in momentum

Hung Parliament, May hanging on by the skin of her teeth and now likely to have an unofficial coalition with the DUP who (judging by a quick glance at wiki/reddit) are staunchly pro-union to the point some are suggesting they'd actually support a hard border...the UK Press slammed Corbyn for his 'links' to Terrorist groups, yet (as I understand it) the DUP actually has several former paramilitaries closely connected to the group.

No idea if this means May will take stock of the results and move towards a softer Brexit, or she'll simply plunge straight ahead whilst she's still got some power, it's certainly weekend her 'strong and stable' argument for negotiations with the EU.

Farage is already hinting at a return to politics...

I'm already predicting this coalition between CON and DUP falls apart within a year after Brexit is triggered, and we'll have yet another election resulting in another hung parliament with an even narrower lead for the Tories.

If the DUP do push for a Hard Brexit I'm not going to expect the Republic Of Ireland to stay silent for long, they need a relatively open border in the island, I wonder if the EU will intervene and demand this is one of the first issues to be settled?

if the vote hadn't be split so heavily between Labour and Conservatives in many seats they may have lost a few more- Malick

{{Looking at the layout of the result there certainly seems to have been tactical voting by Unionists in Scotland. Which might go some way to explaining why in some areas the switch went from SNP to Labour and in others to the Tories- both of whom ran on a strong anti-independence Unionist ticket.
But actually I dont think the Scottish result is anything surprising- it was almost entirely predicable beforehand- and in deed the only bit I predicted wrong was the SNP lost a few more seats than I expected (but not many) and Labour picked up a few more than I expected as I underestimated the Corbyn effect north of the border or that he would have a very good campaign.

The English results are far more interesting I think. Despite the Tories losing their majority in many places they actually increased their vote share, even whilst losing the size of majorities. And the areas they increased most in were Leave areas and working class areas interestingly- traditional Labour ground.
Labour on the otherhand did better in Remain areas and they got the youth vote out- very high turnout in that demographic. But they did not make much if any headway into traditional Tory areas.
The UKIP vote pretty much vanished entirely- but it did not seem to break to the Tories as May expected- with in fact many UKIP voters having been former Labour voters they seem reassured enough by Corbyn's lifelong coolness on Europe to be happy enough to switch back.
The Lib Dems had a very minor improvement but still insignificant- given they are a UK wide party to get trounced in seats by the SNP who got 4 times their numbers and only stand in Scotland is pretty bad for what is supposed to be Westminster's 3rd party. Thy clearly re not that anymore with the SNP taking that position the last two elections in a row now.

Much to digest indeed. }}

Losing a third of your seats isn't trivial regardless of the previous situation. The momentum seemed very much with the SNP just after the first indyref. Sturgeon seems to have pushed at the wrong time and instead of consolidating themselves for the right time they have seen the momentum shift quite a bit. The council elections they lost a few, here they lost a chunk more.

Tactical voting or not, I think a large chunk of Scottish people made their voice known!

Interestingly, this was another one of those elections where the Scottish vote made a big difference. If the SNP had held more, the Tories would probably not be in No.10 still.

Sturgeon needs to play her next hand very well as I think we will be seeing another election in the next year or two and she can't really get away with this momentum continuing the other way.

{{I think because of the ridiculous amount of seats they won last time- unrivaled by any party ever in Scotland- that it is skewing the way its being seen- the SNP lost only 2% of their vote share on last time- many of the seats they lost were to tiny margins.
Losing a third of your seats is not good- but being the biggest party with more than the next two added together is still a good result however you cut it- especially for the party which has been in power here for 10 years, that makes it even more remarkable their vote is still so high. Incumbent governments tend to do badly at elections and especially at local elections where the SNP did reasonably well.
The Tory revival has been underway since Ruth Davidson took over, and a lot of their rise here has to be put down to her leadership and way she conducts herself.
Similarly Labour benefited from the Westminster Labour manifesto being popular and from Corbyn having a good campaign. Both factors which only apply to UK wide elections.

For the SNP the important elections in terms of their agenda and how hard or fast they feel they can push for independence will be the Scottish Parliament elections. In fact up until they won 56 seats the SNP never really bothered abut Westminster elections and had only 6 MP's. 35 is  a remarkable tally if that's roughly where their vote is going to settle to.
Its the Scottish elections will be interesting and much more telling for what the actual mood here is. }}}

I think this might have given May a kick up the arse, she must be rethinking her strategies ? Or, was it a devious way to be rid of one or 2 troublesome mp's from constituencies that are a thorn in the Torys side ? I don't see her having an easy ride after this at all. The town I live in got the guy it wanted so Eastbourne is happy. Apart from that little ray of sunshine I'm feeling a dark cloud of gloomy rain & its all blue coloured.

Az - I think May will be gone within 12-18 months max. If the rest of the part didn't already see her as a liability to their ambitions then they will now and the Tory party isn't short of ambitious backstabbers!

{{Historically the Tories have been pretty brutal to leaders they see as failures. Success or nothing tends to be the Tory way.
What will be interesting is Ruth Davidson is making waves and May will need her Scottish MP's inline and backing her- thing is Davidson, same sex married woman is unlikely to agree to much with the DUP in tow- who are anti- same sex marriage and homophobic.
Also the hypocrisy of May and the right wing press hammering Corbyn as a terrorist sympathizer for speaking with the IRA and Sein Fein back in the day, when May is now kept in power by a terrorist backing, terrorist sympathetic organization. You couldn't make it up.
And these bigotted, homophobic, creationist religious nutjobs now part run the country!! }}

yep but not for long. the credibility of the Tories kowtowing to the DUP is laughable. theres only about 10 of them, and the Tory back-stabbers will use this to get rid of May asap. we will get another election pretty soon.