Britain at a crossroads - United Kingdom general election June 8 2017

Ok, I'll kick us off.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/greens-urge-labour-and-lib-dems-to-form-electoral-pact-to-defeat-tories?

“Britain is at a crossroads – and this election will dictate the very future of our country. Many of the public want us to join forces to help stop the Tories from further wrecking our country for generations to come and we hope you will be willing to at least take the first step and meet with us.”

You folks are on your own on this one, we've got our own problems.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39633696

The gall and temerity of some politicians..

May thinks she has things locked down right now, which is why she's calling for elections so early (June is freakishly early). Since she's not actually being elected, it does make logical sense that she'd bow out of the extra strain of preparing for debates. The underlings vying for positions will do that for her.

I think she would have done better to say a PM (who is not elected) debating MPs (who are) is inherently unbalanced, and it cleans up the process if she doesn't participate.

So if the Conservatives win another majority, especially an increased majority as the current polls predict (take that with a grain of salt of course), will people still claim that Brexit is undemocratic? I'm not really a Corbyn fan but I think he was right not to indulge in fantasies that the referendum result was going to be undone. You're not gonna be able to build a winning coalition by blatantly disregarding the majority of voters. That's not to say that Labour and other parties on the left should abandon their principles, but politicians in a democracy are supposed to be responsive to the public. If May is no longer Prime Minister in two month's time I'll happily eat my serving of crow, though.

As for the proposed alliance, I don't really think that the Lib Dems have any credibility as progressives left, so instinctively I feel like the alliance would be a bad idea. But since they managed to win a recent by-election they clearly have some cachet left with voters, so an alliance would probably be the most prudent option to avoid splitting the vote like the British left did in the '80s against Thatcher.

{{ Well the first official YOUGov poll is out marking the start of campaiging, and th Tories are currently looking pretty comfy.

Con 48
Lab 24
LD 12
UKIP 7
Oth 9

Thats a big gap and would increase the Tory majority if were to actually go that way.

That plays interestingly in Scotland- the spectre of indefinite Tory, right-wing rule is not an appealing one.
But I think it unlikely Scots will return in numbers to Labour unless there seems some chance England will vote Labour too, otherwise a Scottish vote for Labour is a waste. So those poll numbers needed to start shifting in England for Labour to make them seem a sensible anti-Tory option for Scots.

Will also be worth keeping an eye on Ruth Davidson, she has improved somewhat Tory standing in Scotland, but a lot comes down to if people see it as a vote for her or for May, who is a lot, lot less popular here. Also both the SNP and Tory have benefited from the utter collapse of Labour and the Lib-Dems, and I predict a somewhat small but noticeable bounce back for the lib-dems, picking up voters from those who cant bring themselves to ever vote Tory, but dont see Corbyn's Labour party as any good. }}}

I hope the LibDems get back their MoJo, they are the only pro-EU party, I am desperately hoping they have a renaissance I hope the 48% get of their arses and vote LibDem.

The LibDems certainyl took a massive hit of their failed coalition with the Tories. (All Tory policy, with some LibDemw dressing.) But I think brexit has changed that. As the voice of the 48%, as the only strong pro-EU, anti-isolationist voice out there.

I can see two results of this election for the pro-EU side. One, a LibDem resurgence. They are due it. As with Labour abandoning the anti-brexit groups, the LibDems will be the voice of a substantial part of the population that see the direction the country and the Tories are heading as absolute madness. I just hope they have a leader up to it. For the right person, vibrant exciting, as LibDem leader this is the moment UK politics could be forever reshaped. Secondly, look out for the Green party as a separate pro-EU voice. This election might be substantial for them too.

As brexit is concerned, in my opinion this will not lend it any further substantial legitimacy. It is an election for a government, not for brexit. That is merely one aspect voters should, and must, consider. Remember, only 33% of the voting age population voted for brexit in a referendum seeking recomendation. And if the option was hard brexit, it would have been less. The demcratic legitimacy of that decision will always be questionable.

I won't read too much out of the numbers, they are pre-election campaign, and pre an election campaign May seems to be planning on running as little as possible. Honestly, that is one part I struggle to understand. If May is looking for democratic legitimacy, then why play it off as all about brexit and not about her or her party ruling the country for the next five years? That will give her democratic legitimacy for exactly one thing, brexit. Honestly, it is starting from a position of weakness, and it is one that her opponents can exploit. Look out for that.

All in all, this is shaping up to be one of the most interesting political elections in recent years.

Bluebottle wrote:

All in all, this is shaping up to be one of the most interesting political elections in recent years.

Agreed, and that's saying a LOT!

It is particularly interesting, because it can go either way, and the worst case scenario is what is expected. No sweating it out over the rise of the far right with this one

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/european-parliament-will-welcome-britain-back-if-voters-veto-brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/election-result-not-a-foregone-conclusion-insists-jeremy-corbyn?

I think the election campaign might suit Corbyn. As someone pointed out, he is much more at home on the campaign trail than he is as a parliamentarian.

Alex Salmon outlines how Corbyn underplayed his parliamentary hand re: the general election

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/21/theresa-may-cyncism-election-lynton-crosby-snp-alex-salmond

Salmond is well-spoken as usual but the part that jumped out at me the most was the linked video of Tim Farron refusing to rule out another coalition with the Tories.



What an asshat.

One of the most idiotic things said in relation to someones direct opposite in an election, I think. You don't get away from having the opposite opinion on the fundamental questions.

I guess the best thing you could say about it, is that it is the approach of an altogether to decent human being for politics. Nick Clegg made this statement not too long about about other parties not being vary enough of the Tories MO. As they were altogether more focused on getting into power than actually governing. A relentless drive for power, without any real idea how to do anything useful with it. They pretty much steamrolled the last general election by targeting vulnerable LibDem seats.

Odd thing is, at this point, if you had asked the voters pre-brexit, do you want a hard brexit or stay in the EU, the majority would in all probability have gone for remain. Now, for both Labour and the Tories it's hard brexit all the way. And for pretty much brexit every voting person, as well..

The most baffling thing to me is that Farron's main sales pitch seems to be that the Lib Dems are the only party seeking to undo the referendum result. In what possible universe would May ever offer that as a concession to a coalition partner? Even setting aside the fact that the prospect of the Tories winning less than 50% of the seats seems vanishingly unlikely right now, May would be better off with a minority government than backtracking on Brexit. This just seems like a really bizarre counter-message for the LDs. My only guess is that Farron doesn't want to seem like he's being too critical of Clegg and others in the party who agreed to the 2010 coalition. Or maybe there's something I'm overlooking.

I guess it has to come from a, rather naive, belief that a Tory party failing to win the election would be somehow different. That it would have to give up the idea of a hard brexit and face some facts about their most reactionary policies.

While perhaps a generally commendatory, one would wish the main opposition would be clearer about the basics, and had a leader who could grip the moment...

https://www.facebook.com/libdems/videos/10155273048973270/

Well, this makes the first statement even more bizarre

they are now busily trying to discredit Farron over the gay issue, they seem to be trying to force him to say he thinks being gay is a sin. He doesn't, and has said so, but you have to wonder at the timing, and why a Murdoch owned Sky news is obsessing on this non issue.

{{A Times 'shock' poll is showing that the SNP could lose 10 or 11 seats at the general election with the Tories gaining.

Um not sure where the shock is- ok I do know but its not where they are looking- for me the shock will be that the SNP would still get 45 MP's at a Westminster election if that were the case.
Prior to the last general election that was unthinkable- and as I have mentioned at the time and since, that was a perfect storm with unique circumstances for sending SNP members.
Traditionally the SNP never made much of a mark at Westminster election once we had a Scottish Parliament- what would be the point of sending them there normally?

More interestingly, and worryingly is that the SNP General election vote seems to be returning in the direction of normalcy and its the Tories who are benefiting- not lib dems or Labour showing any signs of a Scottish revival so far.

Although there is reason for those votes going to Tories rather say back to Labour I think- there is the 55 who voted Remain in the independence ref, and the Tories are the only dedicated out and out Unionists party for them, and there is the 30 odd percent who voted to lave the EU- again the Tories are their main option if they want that. In short for those who favour unionis and Brexit I can at least see what it is they would vote Tory for. What should worry Labour is no one can see what is the point of voting for them so far.

Of course the right wing press are claiming the SNP losing 11 seats undermines legitimacy for another Independence referendum- but this is a Westminster election so there is no connection- what matters there are Scottish local elections and Scottish Parliament elections- thats where the authority comes from for it- from the Scottish electorate. We wont know how strong the support is for or against another referendum until its tested at the Scottish ballot box. Not in a general election- which is about something else entirely. }}}

That seems a level headed analysis to me

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/heres-who-voted-for-brexit-and-who-didnt?

People were more likely to vote with their newspaper than their political party.