Re: Game of Thrones Appreciation Thread

[halfwise]

http://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/news/a45430/game-of-thrones-final-seasons-seven-episodes/?hl=1&noRedirect=1

Bit of a shame, really. Eldo was predicting the opposite, at least for the books.

[Eldorion]

I'm still predicting that there will be at least eight books, but D&D have been making sounds about wanting to wrap things up sooner than later since 2014-ish. I thought maybe HBO would wheedle a full eighth season out of them but between D&D already having their next project lined up and the skyrocketing cost of signing actors to more than seven seasons this is very understandable. Not necessarily from an artistic perspective (I can't imagine anyone is happy about the prospect of Dany being in Westeros for all of a dozen episodes out of the entire series), but TV shows by their nature have to take into account more non-artistic factors than a single author does. Which is part of the reason why I don't think this means that GRRM is going to rush the ending of the books.

[halfwise]

Maybe we should take bets on whether there's an 8th book. I'll check back with you in, um...8 years?

[Eldorion]

My entirely tongue-in-cheek estimate is that each book will continue to take one additional year longer to finish (AFFC was five, ADWD was six...) which means that we should see TWOW in 2018, followed by book seven (perhaps resurrecting the title A Time for Wolves?) in 2026, and then finally ADOS in 2035.

[Forest Shepherd]

Mr. Martin will only be... 87 by then, still chipper enough to write one would hope!

[halfwise]

Though my instinct tells me each books takes longer, this is only true for the last 3 books.

1 A Game of Thrones August 1996
2 A Clash of Kings February 1999
3 A Storm of Swords November 2000
4 A Feast for Crows November 2005
5 A Dance with Dragons July 2011

The sequence is 29 months, 20 months, 60 months, 67 months.

Applying linear regression, I'm predicting 82.5 months to the next book (6 years, 10.5 months), and the last book 98 months after that (8 years, 2 months). That means 15 years to books 7 from book 5, or July 2026.

The 8th book should come 113 months later, or 9 years, 8 months, so June of 2036. That puts him at 88, but medicine will have improved as well. Though he's definitely overweight, I think he can make it.

Did you just eyeball that math, Eldo? Only a year off from the high falutin' math. Impressive indeed.

[Eldorion]

Interesting stuff, halfy. I'm afraid it's all rather over my head but I'm tickled that you came up with similar results.

I came up with my "theory" sometime in the past year or two in response to the endlessly shattered dreams of people who were convinced that each new year would see the release of the next book. Didn't take the first three into account since I think something shifted for Martin after them (not just in terms of length but in the final output too). Wasn't something I put much thought into, just humorously extrapolating the "trend" (based on a whopping three data points), but so far it's beaten a couple complex models that were predicting TWOW would be out in 2015 or 2016.

EDIT: the more serious justification, such as it is, would be my thoughts mentioned recently about the increasing complexity of the series and the difficulty of endgames making additional complications like the five year gap or the Meereenese knot inevitable. I don't think we're going to see books coming out more frequently than every 5-6 years. Whether we really get up to 8-10 year gaps I dunno, but I do think it's possible.

[halfwise]

The math probably isn't over your head.  Just plot months between books against book number, and draw a best fit line.



I did it by calculation rather than graphically, but the concept is the same.

[chris63]

Look how young they are here.

[chris63]

I was right about the broken man.

[Mrs Figg]

I enjoyed this episode. it was meaty.

[Mrs Figg]

Spoiler:

[Mrs Figg]

[Mrs Figg]

[Mrs Figg]

[chris63]

[Mrs Figg]

[Eldorion]

Well played.

[chris63]

[Mrs Figg]

another theoriz

Spoiler:

[Mrs Figg]

another theoriz

Spoiler:

[halfwise]

It seems Maisie Williams got an apartment in Brooklyn that she briefly shows off on Instagram.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BGfEdL1Hqhl/?taken-by=maisie_williams

I'm not down in Brooklyn much, but it would be fun to bump into the tyke. Of course, there's about 5,000 others I should be bumping to as well and never do. Sort of like thinking you'll run into Posh Spice in London.

[Mrs Figg]

I enjoyed that. Hound had two chickens

Cercei

Spoiler:

[chris63]

I think Cercie will blow them all up using the wild fire under the City.

[chris63]