Re: US General Election 2016

by Eldorion Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:24 pm

Digging a little deeper into this Norpoth guy:

https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/

This forecast was made using the electoral cycle model, which studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office. The model does not assume who would be the party nominees or the conditions of the country at the time.

“You think ‘This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?’ ” Norpoth said “But that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.”

The fuck is this? Laughing

The idea that incumbent parties are unlikely to win again after two terms in the White House is not a "crazy idea", it's conventional wisdom. The fact that he tries to paint it as something else shows that he either has no idea what he's talking about or, more likely, is just trying to puff himself up.

“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote]. This is almost too much to believe.” Norpoth said, with a few members of the audience laughing nervously. “The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’ ”

It is absolutely too much to believe. The last election with a disparity that great was Reagan vs Mondale. The declining percentage of the electorate that white is enough to rule out the possibility of Trump getting that high of a percentage. This guy is full of shit.

by halfwise Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:30 pm

Well, this exists: https://www.facebook.com/The-International-Society-of-Helmut-Norpoth-Appreciators-272609430820/

Christie never attacked Trump. They're buddies. People who were shocked weren't paying attention.

by bungobaggins Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:01 am

I think this might be Trump's biggest endorsement from an establishment figure, though. Not everyone's going to pony up to Marco Roboto.

by halfwise Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:31 am

The only Republican candidates I can ever pony up to get eliminated early in the primaries. I'd have a hard life as a Republican.

by halfwise Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:03 pm

Somehow I missed when a black protester was escorted out of a Hillary Clinton dinner. It wasn't handled too well (better than Trump but that's saying nothing), and may make her shot at the presidency pretty ticklish.

http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2016/02/there-goes-the-firewall-hillary-clintons-response.html

by Bluebottle Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:50 pm

by bungobaggins Sun Feb 28, 2016 1:50 am

by bungobaggins Sun Feb 28, 2016 1:58 am

Yeah, only Trump supporters are f*cking crazy. hurr durr

Spoiler:

by halfwise Sun Feb 28, 2016 3:57 am

Mind you, Hillary has lots of problems, but Bernie ain't exactly the risen Lord.

by bungobaggins Sun Feb 28, 2016 10:24 pm

halfwise wrote:

Mind you, Hillary has lots of problems, but Bernie ain't exactly the risen Lord.

He is to some people...which is really scary. All I saw last night on the Bernie subreddit were people pleading for others to donate more, or people boasting that they're still donating to this sinking ship campaign. It's really sad. Very delusional people over there.

by Mrs Figg Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:56 pm

Somebody should tell Hillary a pant-suit and heels is so 1989 it hurts.

by bungobaggins Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:09 pm

#UNSTUMPABLE

by halfwise Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:18 pm

Mrs Figg wrote:Somebody should tell Hillary a pant-suit and heels is so 1989 it hurts.

I must be stuck in regression. What should she be wearing? (though I don't like heels).

by Bluebottle Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:57 pm

by bungobaggins Tue Mar 01, 2016 12:25 am

John Oliver = low energy and ad hominem attacks.

We need high energy.

US General Election 2016 - Page 31 ViuKCyE

by Pettytyrant101 Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:58 pm

{{So Super Tuesday- super unbelievable so far Eru knows what this will bring- but working a late tomorrow so will be about lateish tonight for any other fellow politicos watching things unfold in bafflement}}}

by bungobaggins Tue Mar 01, 2016 9:15 pm

Sad thing is she'll end up voting for her anyway.
http://freebeacon.com/politics/clinton-confronted-voter-thinks-record-shows-she-doesnt-care-african-americans/

by Pettytyrant101 Wed Mar 02, 2016 12:14 am

{{{{And they're off! Trump and Clinton look like gaining early wins in Georgia and Verginia, with Sanders up to taking Vermont.
And whilst on the subject of politics I would whole heartedly like endorse our Mayor's signature Nod

}}}}

by halfwise Wed Mar 02, 2016 12:16 am

20,000 Massachusetts Democrats switch parties before Super Tuesday

By Anna Giaritelli Published February 29, 2016

Thousands of Massachusetts Democrats have denounced their party affiliations since January 1 to jump across the aisle and join the ranks of Independent or Republicans.

Nearly 20,000 Bay State Democrats, or 1.3 percent of the party's Masachussetts population, left to vote in the Republican primary Tuesday. More than 16,300 of that group have "unenrolled" or become Independent voters, while 3,500 have joined the GOP.

Mass. Secretary of State William Glavin attributed the switches to the "Trump phenomenon." The billionaire candidate has a significant lead over fellow top contenders Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz in recent state polls.

"The tenor of the Republican campaign has been completely different from what we've seen in prior Republican presidential campaigns," Galvin said. "You have to look no farther than the viewership for some of the televised debates.

I wonder how many are crossing over to ensure that Trump will win so that Republicans will lose in the general election? New Englanders are a sneaky bunch.

by bungobaggins Wed Mar 02, 2016 12:26 am

Go caucus, or sit at home. Go caucus, or sit at home...

by halfwise Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:39 am

So here's a question: if you had to make a choice between Trump and Cruz, who would it be? (A nightmare scenario, I know. But presumably that's what many Republicans are doing.)

by Pettytyrant101 Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:14 am

{{{{Psst Halfy- was thinking much the same thing myself earlier- its a hell of a choice if your a Republican. The weirdest effect Trump has had so far is to make Cruz and Rubio look like moderates in comparison and distract from the fact they are from the right of the party, right off the edge in Cruz's case.

Anyhow time for bed, but Trump seems to be off to a good start, Cruz looks likes he has snaffled a couple too but nothing he wasn't expected to get- if he hadn't got Texas he was dead in the water- but will not be surprised to wake up to Trump as the Republican front runner- then we find out how crazy America really is when the real race begins. Which it looks likely will be against Hilary who seems to be cruising so far.}}}

by bungobaggins Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:43 am

I went to caucus. I would much prefer a primary. It all seemed kind of crony-ish. The precinct results were 50 Rubio, 23 Cruz, 18 Trump. Really disappointed. Yeah, I like Trump, and you can fucking sue me if you want to. He's the only guy who's motivated me to do anything remotely political in the past 8 years.

I only stayed for one round of delegate voting. And I only voted for one delegate (we needed to elect 11), there was only one guy there who seemed to have his head on straight. Then the clock struck 8 o'clock and I have to be to work at 6am, so out the door I went.

by halfwise Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:58 am

So you whipsawed from Sanders to Trump? Did you caucus republican just because that's the more interesting race right now?

by bungobaggins Wed Mar 02, 2016 3:00 am

I caucused republican because I like Trump, but if he's not the nominee I'm not going to vote repub.