Re: We're all doomed! Doomed I say- the Corona virus thread for panicking in!

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Good news Amarie! Hope it doesnt give you too rough a time- but its worth it. }}

[halfwise]

I didn't realize Norway was so far behind with vaccines. Glad you're getting protected.

[Mrs Figg]

good stuff

[Amarië]

Yeah, we hoped so long to get at least our first jab before the summer, but my/our age-group kept getting pushed back as the priority changed.
And then Oslo and regions around had to have priorty because of rising covid numbers. Now it's ages 40-44 and 18-24, leaving just the 25-39 group. So... it's not too bad I guess.

We're a little annoyed that the Osloians could get fully vaccinated and go on vacatio abroad this summer and - most important for those who live
close to the border - drive to Sweeden and buy cheep bacon and pepsi max (without having to go to quarantine).

But we had mostly good weather this year, last summer holidays was cold and wet. Most covid outbreaks seemed to happen around home after we had left. The big thunderstorm missed us, so did the very heavy rain. Also, the border had 9 hours long queues. Germany had those huge floods around the time where we'd normally be there, for example to visit Legoland. So there's not much to complain about!

[Mrs Figg]

last thing he said is the funniest thing I have heard in ages.

[halfwise]

The ONLY thing I can say in Biden's defense is that not many people expected the Taliban to be able to just waltz into power so quickly. But even so, they should have had all the collaborating nationals set up ready to go before the military pulled out. I was expecting so much better from this administration.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ this started with Trump cutting a totally terrible and shit deal with the Taliban to withdraw purely as he thought it would be a vote winner right before the election. And then its been carried out by Biden. Problem with both of them is after 9/11 the international community pulled together, we came to the US aid, we spent money and blood on this for 20 years, and America pulled out without consulting a single ally, putting all allies in danger and in harms way and all those Afghan who helped us, and has left no time to get everyone safely out. That isnt going to bode well in the fututre when the US needs allies to rally round.
Boris also bears a heavy responsibility for British lives and those working with us in Afghanistan as we knew from when Trump unilateraly cut the deal with the Taliban that this was coming, and he did nothing to prepare for it. In fact the Foreign Sec was on holiday when it went down and left instructions not to bother him but to delegate everything to junior ministers.}}

[Mrs Figg]

Not only was Raab on holiday he got all arsy when he was challenged. How arrogant.

[halfwise]

How big is Britain's involvement in Afghanistan anyway? If miniscule I can see not being concerned with it.

[Pettytyrant101]

'150,610 UK personnel have served in Afghanistan.
More than 450 British personnel have died in the country.
At the height of the Afghan war, NATO had more than 130,000 troops from 50 nations in Afghanistan.'
The cost to the UK taxpayer is officially around £22.2 billion, but this is considered by most analysists to be a huge underestimate and the real figure to be at least double this.

{{ So yeah Id say first Trump now Biden needed to consult with the rest of us before making unilateral decisions like this that effects all negatively.
NATO allied forces for example didnt want to leave, they wanted a presence there at lower levels but present to bolster the Afghan government, deter attack againt the people and prevent exactly what we are seeing unfodling now. Bit like how US troops are still in Germany 70 years after WW2.
To just arbitarily withdraw for purely reasons of political expediency, and to do so without so much as picking up the phone to all the allied nations committing their own resources, is way, way out of order and potentially dangerous going ahead.
America these days, sadly, is a completely unrelieable partner. It rips up and abandons international treaties it signed up to on a whim, and even when there is a supposed internationalist President he doesnt consult allies before making major decisons that effect them. }}

[halfwise]

The fact that Biden did the pullout without fully consulting with allies is shocking - he was supposed to be the opposite of Trump in this respect, but he's been falling short on multiple counts.

The first sign of trouble was when he blithely announced that we would undo all the Trump policies at the Mexican border and make everything nice. Well, that's great, but DON'T SAY IT UNTIL YOU"RE READY TO DO IT. Of course everyone started flocking to the border, and nothing was in place to handle it. Total clusterfuck. I'd have thought he'd be a better planner, but he isn't.

[Pettytyrant101]

'Across Europe, officials have reacted with a mix of disbelief and a sense of betrayal. Even those who cheered Biden’s election and believed he could ease the recent tensions in the transatlantic relationship said they regarded the withdrawal from Afghanistan as nothing short of a mistake of historic magnitude.
“I say this with a heavy heart and with horror over what is happening, but the early withdrawal was a serious and far-reaching miscalculation by the current administration,” said Norbert Röttgen, chairman of the German parliament’s foreign relations committee. “This does fundamental damage to the political and moral credibility of the West.”
Röttgen, a senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, is no flamethrower. He has known Biden for decades and was optimistic about his prospects.
While Merkel has avoided direct criticism of Biden, behind the scenes she has made it clear that she considered the hasty withdrawal a mistake.
“For those who believed in democracy and freedom, especially for women, these are bitter events,” she told a meeting with officials from her party late Monday, according to German media reports.

In the U.K., which like Germany supported the U.S. engagement in Afghanistan from the beginning, the sentiment was similar. “Afghanistan is the biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez. We need to think again about how we handle friends, who matters and how we defend our interests,” tweeted Tom Tugendhat, the Conservative chair of the U.K. parliament’s foreign affairs committee.

At a time when some European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have been pushing for the bloc to pursue a security policy less dependent on America, Afghanistan is bound to be used as evidence for why “strategic autonomy” is necessary.
“Naturally this has damaged American credibility, along with that of the intelligence services and of the military,” said Rüdiger Lentz, the former head of the Aspen Institute in Berlin. “One can only hope that the damage to America’s foreign policy leadership can be quickly contained.” - Politico

{{This will have consequences going forward in how members view NATO, US leadership and if anyone goes to US aid again if something else like 9/11 happens once more, god forbid. }}

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ In addition to considering the above post Biden in his speech earlier said in reposnse to this dmaaging US releationships with allies- "there has been no question of our credibility from our allies around the world".
Seriously? }}

[Lancebloke]

Seen some very serious thought being given to letting infection spread where the majority have been vaccinated and those left being unwilling or unable. 

Thought process is that the virus requires 28 different proteins or which the vaccines cover 1 (the spike protein) whereas natural immunity would likely cover a much larger number and therefore be more effective against virus mutations and giving the immune system more weapons to use.

Sounds like a sensible approach given trends in the most highly vaccinated countries (see Israel) don't look great right now. Better to take the hit when you can more easily deal with it than all at once later on?

Would be interesting to see how this all plays out. Looks like some of those places that locked down hard initially (like Australia and New Zealand) are struggling delta now. I can see that turning in to a bit of a disaster,  by their standards, in the coming months.

[halfwise]

The deaths in Israel are lower than the peak (though climbing) though the infection rate is higher than the peak. The vaccines are providing protection, though natural immunity is not being as well reported (I think because people often know if they have it so don't bother getting tested). I think "letting it spread" isn't so much policy as inevitibility, since the delta variant seems to keep spreading despite vaccinations, though at a reduced rate. Though I suppose not going back to lockdowns IS a policy of letting it spread.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/israel?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend

We have a bunch of people saying we are being lied to about the vaccines. I don't see that: I see a cautious delay in reporting things like the virus still spreads even among the vaccinated. But it does get reported.

[Lancebloke]

I may be misremembering (and can't be arsed for a quick google) but didn't Israel wait until they had a large proportion of their population vaccinated before opening up? 

We (US and Europe) seem to have opened up after most of the high risk population were vaccinated and therefore our numbers actually increased for a while in those areas with higher take up. So we have lots of community transmission while vaccine protection is at its highest and therefore hopefully adding further and more comprehensive protection.

[halfwise]

yeah, I don't know about the timings - I think we jumped the gun slightly here, but that was when vaccinations were on the upswing and nobody expected the sudden brick wall of vaccine holdouts.

I think you provide a good argument to counter the claims of a semi-anti-vaccer friend of mine who pointed to similar curves for an argument that vaccines weren't working. I think he's being driven largely by the official blindness to those with immunity acquired via infection: there are mandates coming down against those who aren't vaxxed, but natural immunity doesn't count. This causes incandescent rage among those who have suffered through the infection but don't get the reap the benefits and don't see a need to take a vaccine they don't fully trust.

[Mrs Figg]

I think NZ and Australia are being hit at the moment because they didn't prioritise vaccination and delta was too quick for them. If NZ had had 80/90% vaccinated this wouldn't be happening. I still think the UK opening up without sensible mitigations like masking is evil madness. Just think of vulnerable people and how afraid they must feel. Europe is not totally letting it all hang out and is in a better state than the UK. We have 80% vaccinated, we are vaccinating kids over 12, we also have compulsory masking indoors and the compulsory Green Pass, which means everything is open as usual, bars, restaurants, schools, universities, offices, the lot, but for restaurants and bars  and places of assemblies of people you need to be vaccinated to access them unless sitting outside. Obviously the anti-vaxx loons just hate the Green Pass, but that's hard cheese. The Green Pass is no big deal, you just have it scanned on entry to places, and it makes you feel much safer going anywhere near other people as you know they are all vaccinated.

[Lancebloke]

I am not sure I am in the camp of mandatory masking and I definitely do not agree with covid passports when not crossing borders. 

There is also far too much fear mongering going on for my liking. Covid isn't great but, assuming you are vaccinated, is not really that much of a problem (I know... 1 death is devastating to that person's friends and family, but that is how life works and has always worked with many, many other diseases).

What is a looming problem is the decreasing effectiveness of vaccines over time and the increased chances of breakout viruses. Natural immunity through infection is likely to be FAR more protective than the vaccines are. 

I am yet to see any evidence to the contrary that once a high percentage of vulnerable people are covered that the virus should be allowed to follow its course and I am seeing good reasoning as to why it should.

[halfwise]

It does seem that the best option is to have vaccinated people catch delta.

Masks worth well with ballistic droplets (expelled but drop, hence the social distance) but the ones most people are wearing only have a slight effect on fully aerosolized drops, which seem to be the main mode of transmission. Only well fitted N95 seems to stop that. Most masks would do a better job but they don't really seal to the face.

I think masks help, but not enough that kids should wear them in school. Not enough that people should be forced to wear them except when forced together in confined spaces like public transport. But it's helpful if people do wear them when shopping, etc.

There's too much fear mongering going on with covid, but it's even worse among the vaccine holdouts. Everyone needs to get vaxxed and relax. Those with natural immunity should probably get a booster shot about a year in just to be sure.

[Mrs Figg]

I am totally against the 'let everyone get it' stance, even for vaccinated people you don't know what the outcome for long covid could be. I think herd immunity is a highly laissez faire attitude and too many vulnerable and old people would be the victims. I think Jacinda Ardern has the right idea, she is stamping the fucker out totally, she wont allow ONE person to become infected if she can help it, and that is the morally right thing to do. No government has the right to say 'oh well they were bound to die anyway c'est la vie' I say fuck that! those are peoples relatives who are dying and nobody should fall through the cracks, especially those who need most protecting like sick kids with no immunity and old folk stuck in homes with no chance of escape.

[Lancebloke]

This isn't going away. It won't be stamped out!

If you want the best for the most people then decisions need to follow the science. If the science says the best outcome for mist people is to let the virus do its thing after vaccination, then that is what we should do.

I dont know what facts you have that suggest otherwise.

Edit - living with something very similar to if not actually long-covid myself, the best thing to do here is for people to actually invest in research to understand why thus occurs. I am pretty much free of it now (not quite) after following a programme used for Fibromyalgia and Chronic pain sufferers... so there is actually a way out if that if there was the will to do so.

[Mrs Figg]

yes it can, and has been, stamped out in New Zealand. If they had vaccinated earlier it would have been 100% success. NZ has not had months of lockdowns like the rest of the world, they haven't had 150,000 dead, they haven't had economic disaster, they have led normal lives while the rest of us have been hiding away in lockdown, and their secret is the total and ruthless stamping out of the virus. Not herd immunity, which has caused disaster in places like Sweden, and not half-arsed measures which were too late, like in the UK. If the UK, being an island, had stopped all international flights at the beginning like NZ did, 150,000 people might be alive now.

I am really glad you are feeling better Lance.  


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/24/why-were-happy-hobbits-in-jacindas-mysterious-socialist-hermit-kingdom

[Lancebloke]

Have you not seen the news? New Zealand is now struggling with delta....  the same variant that is still killing people here and in places with higher vaccination rates.

Do you expect them to close their borders forever? Because I can tell you that the people in Yemen or in Palestine don't give a fuck about covid when they have bombs and bullets dropping on them. It isn't going anywhere in Tanzania where they deny its existence, or Brazil where the president doesn't care.

So unless they are going to permanently shut borders (which will destroy parts of the economy and push lots of people in to poverty (which kills), destroy families and mental health (which kills) and basically put people in to the eternal fear of lockdown then how exactly are you doing to stamp it out completely?

You won't. The chance to do so was in the first few days in Wuhan, or wherever it was first detected. After that it was a done deal.

And for the record, I know quite a few people over that side of the world and particularly in Australia they are starting to really have enough. What is the point in being alive if you can't live. I would rather get the virus and die from it than spend another 6 months locked down.

[Mrs Figg]

But lockdown isn't needed if everyone gets vaccinated and then wears masks indoors. People who say masks are a threat to freedom are just as bad as anti-vaxx loons protesting on the streets and invading TV stations. Its the anti-vaxxers who are a threat to my freedom.