Re: The Bigger, Badder, Even More Serious Thread

[Lancebloke]

We shall see Petty. The difference between now and 1939 is that we have very clear alliances and calls to action as part of those agreements. A bit like 1914 really.

I dont think Ukraine is the right hill to die on. The only descalation point I can see if there is a direct conflict is nuclear weapons. Probably not in our cities but hitting troop concentrations on front lines which decimates Eastern Europe.

That is the best case scenario as far as I can see.

[halfwise]

Putin already has Belarus in his pocket. If he gets Ukraine as well it may be enough of the former USSR for him to feel comfortable. But there needs to be a massive force buildup along all the bordering NATO countries.

Much as I'll hate losing Ukraine I'll hate losing Taiwan even more. But because we didn't pre-emptively defend Ukraine and I'm sure we won't pre-emptively defend Taiwan, we'll lose both.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Lance I dont think it would go nuclear, I think all sides are too aware the end result of that if it does. But even the threat of that should not be enough to deter us. If there's a nuke war I'm dead, probably quite early into any nuclear war given where I live, but that was true all the way through the cold war too and we accepted it then because democratic freedom was worth the fight for. If we are no longer prepared to put our own lives in harms way for that cause we have lost before we start as Putin is willing to sacrifice Russian lives for his cause. }}

[Lancebloke]

I dont know how it wouldn't end in nukes really.

Fighting wouldn't stay in Ukraine. The first thing you want to do in a shooting war is remove the enemies ability to fight.

That means aircraft from all over Europe would be hitting Russia bases that are part of its war machine. The navy would be engaging Russia ships in the black sea and trying to destroy the naval bases in the area to ensure dominance of the sea and secure the southern flanks.

We would be blockading any route for Russia to reinforce through the baltic sea and channel. We would be hitting Russian front lines bordering Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

The Russians are going to be trying to stop all of that by doing the same themselves and given a lot of our strategic assets are in western Europe that would either be thousands of tanks trying to steamroll through Eastern Europe or, if they couldn't do that, tactical weapons.

Where does it stop when we are fighting for our right to freedom and Putin thinks at least some of it is his to have regardless?

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ The alternative is to sit back and watch as former Soviet countries after country are retaken by Russia, sending the message the West will do nothing in the face of an aggressor. We dont have to defeat Russia, or its military, we just have to stop them from thinking they can invade with impunity and no reply. We have to give them good reason to reconsider their actions, and for those left in Russia who are not Putin to have good reason to question his actions and if they are worth the Russian lives.}}

[Mrs Figg]

The only hope is the Russian people, how can they allow one man to do this. If one man can decide to destroy the world, we need to change the system.

[Lancebloke]

Figgy - because the Russian propaganda machine has them believing that this is the right thing to do. The state controls the media and tells them what they want.

Then if people protest, they go to jail. If they protest more they disappear.

Petty - I don't disagree. You think the line should have been drawn in Ukraine. I think that we have our red line and that is article 5.... for now at least.

Maybe we will see a quick expansion of NATO applications after this?

[halfwise]

It won't go nuclear unless foreign troops enter a nuclear capable country, and even then it would take an attack on a major city. Even Putin isn't crazy enough to launch unless such a high bar is crossed, and he won't cross that line himself. I think Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be sacrificed to a ground war to prevent nuclear war, but not Austria, possibly not Poland.

There's a possibility the Ukrainians will make it uncomfortable enough for Russia that it will retreat to the Russian dominated territories. That would be the best outcome we can hope for.

[halfwise]

This makes the interesting point that analysts have typically assumed that having closer economic ties with Russia would curb belligerence. But Putin has turned that on it's head: because any sanctions on Russia will also hurt the trading partners, there is less likely to be a strong response. He's found a loophole.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-toughest-sanctions-russia-hardest-124855156.html

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Sanctions wont work because we are too embedded with thee Russian economy, anything that harms it harms us. At least NATO have finally mobilised and got forces moving now into NATO countries. Sadly no one is coming to the Ukraine's aid however, its only a matter of time, but I hope the Ukrainian people make them pay for every inch they take. They are handing out guns to civilian to defend themselves, if it was my country I'd be taking up arms. Id be terrified, but I'd still be doing it. Sadly sometimes you have to fight when its an aggressor. }}

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Good on the Ukrainian military and civilian fighters, given the overwhelming odds they face they are making a fight of it and forcing Russia to pay in blood for every step they take. }}

[Lancebloke]

There are some claims of very high numbers of Russian casualties coming out. 3500 troops and over 100 "tanks" which I assume just means armour.

I dont think these numbers are correct as I am not sure how they could possibly know, however even if there is some truth to this then Russia is definitely paying for their war.

Sadly, the Russians are advancing so the numbers the other way around should really be looking similar, if not worse.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Sadly the end result is inevitable, its just a matter f how long they can hold out. I am heartened however by the size of the protests in Russia against it- in a country where you get arrested, jailed or worse case just disappear for protesting that so many have come out shows this isnt all going Putins way. }}

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Fighting has spilled out onto the streets of the capital but Kyiv stands! And the Presdient is holding firm-

"Do not believe in fake information," Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on social media after the sun came up in Kyiv on Saturday morning. "I am here. We will be defending our country, because our strength is in our truth. We will be defending our country," he added. "A new day on the diplomatic frontline began with a conversation with @EmmanuelMacron," Zelenskyy added in a Twitter post. "Weapons and equipment from our partners are on the way to Ukraine. The anti-war coalition is working!"

Uk and US are sending military equipment and aid but it needs to get there now. I still think this is a war we should be fighting with them, not just in support of them. The line should be drawn now and clearly against tolitarian states.

The leader of the opposition in Ukraine is likewise standing her ground and fighting for her countries freedom.

'Kira Rudik, a member of Ukraine's parliament and the leader of the Voice party, said she is ready to fight for her country Friday as Russian troops closed in on the capital.
"I learn to use #Kalashnikov [rifle] and prepare to bear arms," she tweeted. "It sounds surreal as just a few days ago it would never come to my mind. Our #women will protect our soil the same way as our #men. Go #Ukraine!"
She said if someone would have asked her about using a gun to defend herself three days ago, "I would tell you like 'definite no' and we would have an argument or something like that. And then I had to wake up at 5 a.m. because there were attacks ... and it was the first siren and first bomb shelter in my life." She told MSNBC she had to then vote for martial law in her country and after that lawmakers asked for and received guns from the military.

She said it's hard to believe what has happened in her country, but at some point "you just say like 'I'm not going anywhere."

Some things need to be fought for to be preserved and some evils need confronted. I just wish we were confronting it more directly. }}

[Mrs Figg]

Brave people

[halfwise]

I think the fact that Ukraine is standing and fighting should be the proof needed that they are ready to join NATO.

I'm dreaming, but in my dream NATO holds an emergency session and votes Ukraine in, then troops pour across the borders and push Russia back out.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ That would be my ideal situation right now. I still think NATO was to provocative in the past, but this invasion is utterly unwarranted, Ukraine was presenting no threat to Russia. Theyve made their choice and now we have to respond, and if Russia is going to threaten its neighbours then its neighbours need the certainty of our backing. }}

[halfwise]

But you see NATO was NOT being provocative in the past; if those countries had not joined NATO this likely would have already happened to some of them. Taking steps to preempt a bully should not be criticized as being provocative.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ Putting bases and missiles and troops right along their border was provocative. The US would not have stood for it on their borders either lets be honest.
But too late now for the blame game, we are where we are and that needs fought. }}

[halfwise]

Okay, some provocative posturing was done. But I hold to my position that simply accepting previous eastern block countries into NATO at their own request should not be classified as provocative.

[Mrs Figg]

Still can't believe it. Those brave people making Molotovs against bombs. In 2022. We really have to change a system that allows one man to kill possibly millions of people. Putin has lost reality and has gone rogue Our only hope is his generals putting some Novochok in his tea.

[Pettytyrant101]

{{ I have one small glimmer of hope in all this, a Tolkienesque ucatastrophe if you will.
Putin is blocking social media now in Russia, Twitter has been pulled already, Faceboook looks next for refusing to stop fact checking the official Russian news outlets reporting on the war. If it goes so will instagram. All three are popular in Russia.

This is something new to a war in Europe involving Russia. There was no internet in the Cold War. The people of Russia only had state news and nothing coming from outside.

Todays Russia does talk to the rest of the world, they are big internet users. This time, as Putin cuts of their lines of outside communication the natural thing to assume is, he doesnt want us to see it, this isnt going well, this might not even be right. They will have heared of all the sanctions and how Russia will be treated like a pariah state by the rest of the world, they will see their access through modern communications to the rest of the world being deprived of them by Putin.

And those in Russia with a VPN can bypass the state block, then share on phones to others.

This could be the hopeful difference this time. That the Russian people decide they dont want to go back to another Cold War, that the ordinary Russian doesnt hate westerns any more because they talk to them all the time now online, play Call of Duty with them or Fortnite or something. And they dont want the sanctions, or the locking down of the country. And maybe they will decide they dont want Putin. Afterall revolution tends to be how Russia changes. }}

[Mrs Figg]

yep, its the kids who will decide the ultimate fate of Russia.

[halfwise]

I don't see a revolution happening.  Putin may have miscalculated in Ukraine, but it won't make him weak enough to lose his iron grip.  At most I think he'll blunt his plans a bit in response.

Much stronger sanctions are possible, but it will hurt the world economy, mainly Europe.  And it will hurt the innocent Russian population which clearly doesn't want a part of this.

My next dream is for NATO to drive in a bunch of heavy equipment at lightning pace with NATO flags flying so the Russians won't have time to figure out if it's a good idea to fire on them or not (and ignore any shots fired at them), then park next to Ukrainian troops, rip off the NATO flags to show Ukrainian flags, leave it all running with the keys in the ignition,  and then the NATO soldiers hotfoot it back across the border in light convoy with NATO flags flying again hoping not to get fired on once more.  They can say it's part of the $40 million Trump didn't give Ukraine earlier, purely a business transaction.

[Mrs Figg]

If NATO gets involved its curtains for all of us.