US General Election 2016

That early campaign clip still plays well, and should be played more often.

{{{That Daily Show clip is as frightening as it is funny!}}}

Lucky you

{{{Maybe in reality Trump is an alien from a planet thats at war with the Lizard People that currently rule our planet! }}}

{{{Well you have to admit it would explain a lot, including where Trump got the Hypnotronic Ray he appears to be using on the people of America- that's the only explanation I have left for what's going on- it must be aliens! }}}

CNN and NBC both reporting that anonymous sources say Kasich will drop out of the race. He canceled an event today and apparently plans to make an announcement of some sort this afternoon or evening.

And it's official; the republican party has imploded.

What I'm most curious about right now is if -- as seems likely -- Trump loses badly in the general due to the far more diverse electorate (and I don't just mean in terms of race), will movement conservatives acknowledge Trump as the Id and result of their past several decades of rhetoric, or will they have some excuse to try to deny any responsibility for the ease with which the man took over their party?

{{{This is certainly a case of reaping what you sow. You can trace this dangerous rhetoric back a long way in the Republicans- and as there wider appeal particularly among the emerging and growing 'minorities' and secularising of parts of the country meant it was shrinking, they pandered for votes more and more to the hard core right.

I put this up elsewhere- but worth a listen if you didn't before- its satire, but its getting harder and harder to distinguish it from current Republican reality- and this was satire of the rhetoric of the Bush era post 9/11- most of Trump speel is in this- intolerance of immigrants, terrorist fear, war rhetoric, America is the best country in the world, misogyny, bragging, fear of losing traditions and an erosion of family values and God- difference is in this they are jokes, satire of America in post 9/11 mode, and now they verge on becoming reality}}

{{{Trumps core audience appears to be at the moment largely white blue collar workers, probably not well educated by global standards, and probably raised in a society with strict social rules if religious in particular. Basically people who feel they have no control over things, who see their home environments change around them, and the face sin it change with it and are disconcerted by it,  and they are seeing manufacturing jobs change for services, fo which they are ill equipped, and those jobs going to countries with cheaper labour in emergent economies.

And then on top of this there is the more educated worker who feels that neither Republicans nor Democrats are making anything better for them, they are working harder for less money, its almost impossible to get on the housing market, and so unstable it might go pop again anyway even if you do. And Trumps talk of actually doing something about things, anything, seems better than the option of neither side doing anything different at all.

-and here Trump is potentially very dangerous- as he is likely to appeal to the same disgruntled feeling among the democratic and independent voters among the same sort of working class voter (ok Blue-collar- lets all pretend if we change the name America doesn't have a class system ) -

But its the same in all Western countries, this isn't an American thing. I work more hours and more days a week now than I did ten years ago in the same job but for less relative pay. I am poorer now for working more hours than ever before in my working life.
But I am lucky to be working at all in the current global environment.

We don't need Americans pulling up the drawbridge with some 'America First' bullshit blowhardiness and making matters worse, we need America and everyone else working together to pull us all out the shit hole we all fell into together- but you started the push for it, (financially and militarily) so stand up and help fix the bloody damage now is not the time for heads in sand:x and definitely not the time for you stick your heads up your own arses    }}

I've been thinking of Trump largely in terms of disaffected working class support, similar to the swings UKIP has benefited from, but I read an interesting counterpoint to this just the other day that I'm still thinking over but feel is worth sharing.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

{{{That's certainly interesting Eldo, but I think its asking the wrong question- those who are voting at the moment are not the issue at large- I would be more interested to see what the median house-hold income was of the thousands who turn out for Trump rallies. That's more representative I think of his wider audience in the country.}}}}}

Not sure I follow. I imagine most people who go to Trump rallies end up voting for him, but the majority of voters even in the primaries don't go to political rallies. Though obviously the primary electorate itself is not a representative sample of the country either, and neither Trump (nor anyone else) can win the Presidency unless he expands beyond his base. Other wise this November is gonna be Goldwater II: Orange Boogaloo.

The argument from the Trump camp is that he can and will expand his support to include everyone disaffected with contemporary politics (which is probably most Americans), but I think this ignores the extent to which Trump has associated himself with white identity politics and the difficulty he'd face in walking that back, if he even tries to, which is not guaranteed.

{{{I thought the rallies were open to anyone who could get a ticket?- I'm sure I read a piece somewhere about democrat voters who had turned up at one because they liked what they heard and didn't trust Hilary- I doubt they were primary voters though. Maybe I am misremembering the context or something.
But if his rallies are open to anyone that wants to go that would be a fairer reading of income I think of his core support (would also be interesting to know the corresponding income of those who turn out to protest Trump at rallies inside and out)}}}

While it's true that those who go to primaries have to be registered Republicans in most states, those who go to rallies are not a representative type either - they are only the most excited. I think both should be surveyed, and the correct representation is somewhere in between.

With Trump I think it's also important to distinguish between "core supporters" and "fans". The people I know who are Trump supporters are also big sports fans and seem to approach it all the same way. I could see them going to a rally in the same way they'd go to a game, but I don't know about voting.

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{{I thought the rallies were open to anyone who could get a ticket?- I'm sure I read a piece somewhere about democrat voters who had turned up at one because they liked what they heard and didn't trust Hilary- I doubt they were primary voters though. Maybe I am misremembering the context or something.
But if his rallies are open to anyone that wants to go that would be a fairer reading of income I think of his core support (would also be interesting to know the corresponding income of those who turn out to protest Trump at rallies inside and out)}}}

There isn't an ideological test to get in the door to a rally, but if you care enough to go to one (and aren't just doing it to start shit) it's not a big leap to assume that they care enough to change their party registration, if they live in a state with closed primaries (which not everyone does). It's trivially easy to be able to vote in whichever primary you prefer. Of course, most Americans don't bother voting in primaries at all, but those kind of people are unlikely to be at a political rally in the first place.

Meanwhile, hopes of support materializing for a third-party conservative candidate grow slimmer by the hour:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/huntsman-puts-moderate-seal-of-approval-on-trump.html

Cruz Out. good.

I actually wanted him to stay in so that there might not be a clear majority for any of the Republican candidates, leading to a surprise nomination. The fact is that John Kasich would have a chance of beating Hillary in a general election, and though he wouldn't be my pick for president, at least I wouldn't be ashamed to have him as a nominee.

But it's not clear the republican party would be that rational.

And......now it looks like Kasich just dropped out. Since with Cruz out there was already no chance of a contested nomination, it makes sense. If this was a simple board game it would have made strategic sense for them both to have stuck it out, but given the immense effort required to campaign I can only feel disappointment, not blame.

The Indiana results proved that there was no way to stop Trump from getting 50% of the total delegates no matter who stayed in. The Cruz/Kasich pact failed, in part because it looked bad to voters, which is why they've both dropped out now.

No comment today.



{{{ }}}

On the Democratic side, Bernie has started talking about trying to convince superdelegates to support him, since it's now mathematically impossible for him to win without their support. Kind of interesting change from earlier when the Sanders camp was saying that superdelegates should respect the wishes of the voters. That's what they're doing by supporting Clinton right now.