Re: US General Election 2016

by Eldorion Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:50 am

In this day and age, at least, a President is always gonna face an uphill battle getting his nominee through an opposition-controlled Senate. But preventing debate or vote, period, for almost a year is on another level IMO. It's certainly more of a gamble in terms of how voters will perceive it, especially after all the threats and actual government shutdowns in recent years.

by David H Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:10 am

Wow! This is almost as earthshaking as the observation of gravity waves! Shocked

I probably would have enjoyed Scalia more if he'd been a commentator on FOX News. He was an intelligent and witty man. But he's done so much damage ( not least of which was writing the Citizen's United decision or the expansions of 2nd Amendment gun rights) that I really can't really mourn him.

How the appointment of his successor will affect the current election year debates is going to be very interesting, as if things weren't getting weird enough.... Rolling Eyes

by halfwise Sun Feb 14, 2016 2:34 am

I have this horrible premonition that the emails may knock out Clinton, sending Sanders against Trump, and Trump will win. pale

by David H Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:52 am

On the other hand if Bernie doesn't become president but does remain a Democrat and does remain in the Senate, then only 5 of the 24 Republican senate seats up for election in '16 would need to switch for the Democrats to have a majority in the Senate again.

It can be argued that the Trump phenomenon shows there's not much love among Republicans for the good ol' boys, so 5 doesn't seem so much, and a Dem majority would sure change the kind of nominee that a president could expect to get confirmed. This is better than Fantasy Football!

Would a Republican filibuster over a judicial confirmation right now strengthen or weaken their base, do you think?

by halfwise Sun Feb 14, 2016 2:21 pm

I didn't watch the debates, but an article in Vox says he finally went too far for Republicans....not by saying all Mexicans are rapist and villains....not by wanting to ban Muslims....but by saying the Iraq war was a complete mistake and George Bush made us less safe. Everyone piled on him.

Of course the auditorium and stage was filled with mainstream Republicans, so not clear how this will affect the polling numbers.

by David H Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:17 pm

This is a problem? scratch

CHARLESTON, S.C., Feb. 12 (UPI) -- The campaign for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz quickly pulled a TV ad Thursday after just a few hours when they found out one of the stars of the commercial appeared in softcore porn films.

The ad targeted Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and was called "Conservatives Anonymous." It featured a therapy group talking about how they were fooled by Rubio. The actress in question tells one of the others in the group, "Maybe you should vote for more than just a pretty face next time,"

Actress Amy Lindsay describes herself as a Christian conservative and her resume includes Animal Lust, Co-Ed Confidential, Insatiable Desires, Secrets of a Chambermaid and Carnal Wishes.

Edit: I've heard a rumor that the sequel to Animal Lust will be called Vegetable Lust. bounce

by halfwise Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:59 pm

In Ted Cruz's America, there will be no porn. (hence no internet.)

by Eldorion Sun Feb 14, 2016 7:10 pm

halfwise wrote:I didn't watch the debates, but an article in Vox says he finally went too far for Republicans....not by saying all Mexicans are rapist and villains....not by wanting to ban Muslims....but by saying the Iraq war was a complete mistake and George Bush made us less safe. Everyone piled on him.

Of course the auditorium and stage was filled with mainstream Republicans, so not clear how this will affect the polling numbers.

US General Election 2016 - Page 27 X4VMvg5

by Bluebottle Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:06 pm

I'm not worried about Trump. He's unelectable. An electable republican, now. One of those would be quite scary. (Unless he was like Arnold Vinnick.) Not sure I've seen any of those for a while though. (Mind you, you are the country that reelected GWB..)

by halfwise Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:32 pm

I'm beginning to wonder if he really is unelectable. I think if he gets the nomination he'll soften his tone to woo a wider range of voters. He's canny and may be playing a smarter game than we realize. He's certainly not afraid to change his message.

by Bluebottle Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:02 pm

He might, conceivably, convince a majority of republicans to support him. But the general population? Nah.

I don't think he'll live down the blatant racism and pie in the sky solutions as far as they are concerned.

There's a probable ceiling to the potential Trump support that lies well below 50 % of the general population, in my opinion.

by Bluebottle Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:04 pm

by halfwise Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:46 pm

Unfortunately you'll never hear a US republican say that. That was Aaron Sorkin writing down his dreams for what the country could have been.

by Eldorion Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:01 am

I think Trump has gone too far to walk his message back. If he wins the nom I'm sure plenty of GOP voters will hold their noses and vote for him because that's how party politics works, but he's not the kinda guy to fire up anything more than a fraction of the GOP base, and he's already widely hated in liberal and moderate circles which will give a boost to Democratic and Democratic-leaning turnout.

by Eldorion Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:08 am

halfwise wrote:Unfortunately you'll never hear a US republican say that. That was Aaron Sorkin writing down his dreams for what the country could have been.

Agreed. Though it'd sure be nice to live in Sorkin's fantasyland. Razz

by Bluebottle Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:15 am

Yeah, even the "We've reached an agreement on the debt ceiling-bill.." part is pretty pie in the sky these days. Razz

by Eldorion Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:28 am

Sad but true. Laughing

by halfwise Mon Feb 15, 2016 8:40 pm

Actually, Justice Scalia may have well conformed to Sorkin's ideal:

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/scalia-obama-kagan-axelrod-supreme-court-161701074.html

by Eldorion Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:07 pm

SCOTUS is a different environment but a lot of the anecdotes people have been sharing about Scalia are quite heartwarming. Smile

by Pettytyrant101 Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:12 pm

{{{This election just went from being like watching a slow motion car crash, to watching a slow motion car crash on the wing of a jet which is on fire- thats quite witty for this amount of buckie, I wish folk could actually see it!! Mad

Damn the Reason! Mad

Get on with it Pure Publications! Mad

Damn said too much- lucky no-one can read this after all Nod

}}}}

by Mrs Figg Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:02 pm

I can

by Pettytyrant101 Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:19 pm

{{{{You! And your bloody psychic pussy! Mad

Well keep it to yourself!! Nod

Especially the bit about the Reason having anything to do with Pure Publications Nod

Not a bloody word lass!! Or I'll have Pure Publications use your pussy as their new CatSat, they've been after one ever since the unfortunate end to the previous pussy

}}}

by Eldorion Tue Feb 16, 2016 2:12 am

Assuming this isn't an outlier poll, it doesn't look like Trump's anti-Bush strategy backfired. Not that I was expecting it too; if Trump supporters were gonna get cold feet over him attacking GOP sacred cows, they would've bailed after he badmouthed POWs last summer.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article60547281.html

GOP:
Trump: 35%
Cruz: 18%
Rubio: 18%
Kasich: 10%
Carson: 7%
Jeb: 7%

DEM:
Hillary: 55%
Bernie: 34%

Edit: at least one other poll roughly agreeing on the GOP side, also gives Trump a huge lead but has Jeb doing significantly better:

https://twitter.com/SCHouseGOP/status/699368384350306304

by halfwise Tue Feb 16, 2016 2:20 am

Still seeing the Bill Clinton halo effect for Hillary.

by Eldorion Tue Feb 16, 2016 2:23 am