US General Election 2016

FISA Court abuses are OK if they're against a politician I don't like.

{{If what the BBC is reporting is accurate them the only parts of the dossier used to get the warrant were those parts independently confirmed by the US intelligence agencies- that entirely undermines the central complaint to me that 'unverified' information was used to get the warrant.

Its also telling that the current head of the FBI was so strongly against the release of this memo that he made a rare public statement on it, and he is a recent Trump appointee- what possible reason could he have for not wanting it released unless he knows its not giving the whole picture? (which is the main FBI complaint about releasing it- that its misleading and omits crucial information). }}

I predict the memo is misleading because it cherry-picks and doesn't show a balanced viewpoint of how political biases actually play out in the FBI.  For example, we know the Peter Strzok, who is the  Republican poster boy for the sin of being an FBI agent with major bias against Trump, actually pushed for reopening the email case against Clinton, which arguably led to her losing the election.

Strzok requested Clinton Investiation

But the memo will only show evidence of bias, not evidence of people doing their jobs despite bias.  and that's the problem: everybody in government is biased; you can't apply a political litmus test for government service.  That would turn us into Iraq under Saddam Hussein.

Memo is here: https://www.yahoo.com/news/read-controversial-nunes-memo-authorized-release-trump-173712652.html

Seems its main point is that opening the investigation and surveillance on Trump Staffer Carter Page was done on the flimsy evidence of the Steele Dossier and the documents presented to the judge did not mention Steele's anti-Trump bias.

I wouldn't call this anything earth-shaking, given how little is necessary for surveillance of suspected terrorists, even if citizens. We need to hear the FBI's side first.

was done on the flimsy evidence of the Steele Dossier and the documents presented to the judge did not mention Steele's anti-Trump bias.- Halfwise

{{ It seems the only parts of the dossier used were the bits that the US intelligence agencies could confirm were true- such as Page's contacts with Russians which did happen (he just denies it was anything illegal or dodgy but no one including Page argues it didn't happen) so I dont see it was 'flimsy' in terms of the information they used from it and presented for the warrant. The bits they used were confirmed by their own Intelligence not reliant solely upon the dossier alone.

As I mentioned above I dont think you'd find a single UK Intelligence Member who was a Trump supporter- failing to mention that Steele didn't like Trump therefore seems a bit to me like failing to mention fish need water- it doesn't really need said. }}

A swing and a miss then, I think we'll say. Not surprising from the republicans or Trump to come up with bluster over substance.

Just finished Fire and Fury.  What an entertaining ride!  I'd say at least 1/3 of it comes from Steve Bannon, who Wolfe seems to have gotten close to.  He has entire conversations from private parties inside Bannon's house, dinner parties, etc: very specific quotes with gestures and facial expressions.  Much more I infer came from a flabbergasted Katy Walsh, the only person in the West Wing who had any actual government experience (Priebus was all political party, not government).

All the reviews have missed a key element, probably because they don't want to give away the plot of the movie.  It has to do with the basic power structure of the first 6 months, with great explanatory power, including where all the leaks came from.  Hint: they didn't come from Obama holdovers, nor from Spicer's communications team.  Oh, it's far better than that.  In fact, I may not want to give the plot away either.

Spoiler:

It all makes such perfect sense once you see it.  A lot of other things fell into place as well, but I won't get into details. He has extensive quotes, and it says a lot that none of the people he's quoted have contradicted any specific quote.  They take the blanket approach of saying it's all a bunch of fabrication.  But it's very clear it's not.

Anyway, Wolfe basically shot himself in the head by blabbing on Maher that he thought Trump was having an affair, couldn't prove it, but if you look near the end of the book you'll see the hints.  This is the same stupid behavior that Bannon was always ragging on Javanka and Trump himself for doing.  He should have just kept his mouth shut and not cast questions on the book.  But I suppose it helped him sell another million copies.

Interesting

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/04/us/politics/democrats-memo.html?

The republicans really want you to know the unbiased truth..

Well, they actually let it pass, colour me surprised.

Now its up to Trump, what could go wrong

{{ Have not had much chance to pay attention to the news last few days- but seems I missed some fun with Trump stuff!
My two favourite picks are - Trump on TV live at a rally pumping up his supporters with tales of how well the stock exchange is doing whilst the reports of the worst single day collapse in the market come up.

And (this one is related to what you have in spoilers Halfy in your post I think) Trump tweeting about the NHS march in London (seemingly in response to a Fox and Friends segment again!) and completely and utterly in every single conceivable possible manner in existence getting it entirely wrong on every single count in every possible way. To the point where professional British Trump excuser and soft ball interviewer Piers Morgan had to tweet-

'Wrong, Mr President.
Our NHS is a wonderful, albeit imperfect, health system - and the envy of the world.
By comparison, the US healthcare system is a sick joke & the envy of no-one.'

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt (against whose policies people were marching!)

'I may disagree with claims made on that march but not ONE of them wants to live in a system where 28m people have no cover. NHS may have challenges but I’m proud to be from the country that invented universal coverage - where all get care no matter the size of their bank balance.'

Jeremy Corbyn

“People were marching because we love our NHS and hate what the Tories are doing to it. Healthcare is a human right.”

Simon Stevens, NHS CHief Executive

“Unfortunately, respectfully, we suggest that tweet got the wrong end of the stick."

Peoples Assembly and Health Campaigns Together (who organised the rallies)

"The NHS has existed since 1948 in the UK after the devastation of the Second World War.
It has been a shining example to the world of what can be achieved when we put the needs of the collective good over the interests of a few wealthy individuals.
Unfortunately, our current government have been persuaded to increasingly adopt policies which represent those of your Government, they have decided to move us more to an American-style system which is widely acknowledged to be one of the most expensive, inefficient and unjust healthcare systems in the world.
This is why our NHS is currently struggling and why leading Professors including Professor Stephen Hawking are bravely battling politicians who wish to turn it into a system like yours. This is what our demonstration was about.
We don’t agree with your divisive and incorrect rhetoric. No thanks."

And campaigner for the NHS Ralph Little tweeted-

'Hey matey. I was front row of that march and I can assure you that is 100% not why we were there. I can explain properly if you’ve got 5 mins to chat between rounds of golf?'

So yeah, more great diplomacy from Trump get your information form Fox and Friends, dont check any of it for accuracy or anything in fact just accept Fox and Friends at face value and use that to bad mouth a close ally and offend its people, and get the entire point of what was happening arse to elbow- all at once! Quite an achievement really. }}}

"I had an incident in Scotland, where a friend of mine was in Scotland recently and he got very, very sick. They took him by ambulance, he was there for four days, he was really in trouble. And they released him and he said 'where do I pay?' and they said, 'There's no charge.' And not only that he said it was like great Doctors, great care. I mean, we could have a great system in this country."- Donald Trump on the Letterman Show, 2015.

Trump has always been supportive of getting a health care system in place that would take of everyone, but there are two stumbling blocks:

1. As a born-again republican, he's not allowed to even mention "nationalized" health care except to spit on it; it all has to be methods to support private insurers.
2. His burning hatred of anything Obama related (due in large part to the White House Correspondents dinner of 2011) means that he was personally obligated to tear down as much of Obama care as he could.

If he had run as a democrat without his Obama animosity he likely would be pushing a system very much like Britain's.

{{His own words would indeed seem to back that up Halfy }}

"The reason is some of the people in the audience are insurance people, and insurance lobbyists, and special interests. They got -- I'm not going to point to these gentlemen, of course, they're part of the problem...The insurance companies are making a fortune on every single thing they do...Look, the insurance companies are making an absolute fortune."- Trump, GOP Debate

On Obamacare, both Donald and I say we want to end it, but for very different reasons. I want to end it because it goes too far, it's killed millions of jobs, and it's hurting people's health care. Donald wants to end it because he says it doesn't go nearly far enough. And what was amazing in that exchange that was missing is for decades Donald has been advocating socialized medicine.
What he's said is government should pay for everyone's health care, and in fact, a couple of debates ago, he said, if you don't support socialized health care, you're heartless.- Kasich, GOP Debate

"We have a failing health care — I shouldn't say this to our great gentleman and my friend from Australia because you have better health care than we do."- Trump at a press call with the Australian PM (where they have universal healthcare).

"We must have universal health care. Just imagine the improved quality of life for our society as a whole." Trump from his book 'The America We Deserve'

"No, but it’s certainly something that in certain countries works. It actually works incredibly well in Scotland."- Trump on Morning Joe

"As far as single-payer, it works in Canada. It works incredibly well in Scotland. It could have worked in a different age, which is the age you’re talking about here."- Trump, GOP Debate

"Everybody’s got to be covered. This is an un-Republican thing for me to say. I am going to take care of everybody. I don’t care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now....The government’s gonna pay for it."- Trump, 60 minutes.


{{What baffles me is that a large section of his supporters cheer him to the rafters as a genius tearing up convention for the good of the working American when he was saying this, and when he says the exact opposite they hail that as his genius too saving the American working man from the horrors of free health coverage at point of need for everyone at lower costs for all! Its Orwellian double think to be able to praise both positions and not see an inconsistency.}}}

I know quite a few Trump supporters, very solid rational people - but their first reaction is to just accept anything he says. This isn't just a Trump phenomena, it was an Obama supporter trait as well, though I think it's more obvious with Trump simply because he's such an inconsistent person with a glaring lack of mooring to facts that conflict with his ego.

{{Been reading around trying to get an idea of what is going on in the global economy right now with all the crashes starting in the US.
Basically there are two sides, but as far as I can find only one of them has anything other than an assertion to back it up with.
The assertion side says its a good sign, its just the markets correcting themselves after years of stimulus and its happening because the underlining economy is doing really well.

The other side says its down to three things- Trump, bonds, and the budget.
Essentially Trump has just signed a budget Rand Paul quite rightly called pure hypocrisy for Republicans. It is almost equal to the stimulus package of Obama era, rallied against with venom by Republicans at the time.
Problem is say economists its over cooking the economy. The stimulus packages of the Obama era had done their job and the markets for some time have been adjusting to being weened off government subsidies (not just in America but in many countries affected by the global crash). Now Trump has dumped a whole load more into an economy that did not in fact need it, all it needed was time to grow again.
Instead the extra cash dump has fueled speculation of interest rate hikes (again not just in America but globally) which in turn is leading to a mass sell off in shares in favour of something else.

The something else? That's where the government bonds come in, as Rand Paul pointed out this is basically a huge stimulus package increasing government debt and requiring large borrowing- that makes bonds valuable right now. The markets are anticipating Trump having to borrow a fortune in bonds to meet his budget promises (military parade excluded!). And all this combined is what has led to all the runs on the market in the last few days. }}}

Hell, if Trump had orchestrated... even fought for single payer health care as a republican president, even I would have given him some credit, but this is the issue, from someone who talks so much of values, he is devoid of them. He is busy lining the coffers of him and his friends, and any idea of actually using the presidency to concoct meaningful policy beyond tax breaks, unethical increments against immigration and climate change and generally dismantling anything positive Obama did seems nowhere near his mind. A terrible president, mostly I expect because he was never after the presidency for doing anything, just for the fame of being a frontrunner. He is now arguably among the most major threat to modern human civilization on a number of issues. Nuclear weapons, climate change, sustainable development. You can just read out a list of the issues the world is facing, and he is on the wrong side of it.

https://twitter.com/StefanMolyneux/status/963154195476922369

I dunno, Blue. His spoken and tweeted rhetoric still sucks, and his implementation for the first 6 months was under the unhealthy influence of Steve Bannon. But the budget that now has his approval, though overinflated, does give things to both sides. I think he's moderating and willing to trade the silly "wall" for stronger border enforcement, etc. Having ditched both Bannon and Priebus he's now mainly under the influence of Jarvanka, who though naive and inexperienced are still a moderating influence. Maybe I've just become inurred to his style, but it seems to me he's getting more stable with time.

{{He seemed pretty tone deaf to me over the guy who was allegedly beating up his wives- praising him and talking about the guys life being destroyed without ever mentioning the women once. In the current climate that seemed pretty stupid to me and ill advised. Though no doubt will play to the segment of his base who thinks women are destroying society.

And the BBC sum up his infra-structure announcement as-

'If there's one thing politicians love, it's infrastructure spending. It creates jobs, pleases businesses and gives officeholders something tangible to point to when constituents ask what they've done for them lately. So it's quite a remarkable achievement for the Trump administration to have come up with an infrastructure plan that will likely be of limited popularity and difficult to pass in Congress.'

It concludes with-

'This doesn't mean an infrastructure bill won't happen. Chances are, however, what Congress passes will look very different from what was presented on Monday.' }}}

{{Just watched the White House press briefing- thats far and a way the most uncomfortable Ive ever seen Sanders at the podium- she really did not enjoy having to defend Trumps words on the Porter thing}}

{{You know Trumps admins up to its neck in it when even Fox news cant defend them!

'FBI Director Christopher Wray testified Tuesday that former White House staff secretary Rob Porter had completed a background check months before he was forced to resign over domestic allegations against him -- conflicting with White House timelines that said the check was ongoing....The testimony by Wray, though, appears to conflict with the narrative from the White House, which said the background check into Porter was not completed -- and that was why there was no action against Porter despite allegations of abuse by his two ex-wives."- Fox News

Now the interesting thing is does Trump stick to his everyone in the FBI is an evil liberal Obama person out to get him line or not? Tricky when the person involved in highlighting the WH lie is a Trump appointee!! }}}

{{So today six heads of intelligence agency gave their testimony on russia election meddling- stating unanimously that russia did interfere in the last election (to what extent is debatable that they did is not it seems) that they will continue to do so as there as been nothing done to stop them by Trumps admin who lifted sanctions imposed by Obama for meddling.
According to Fox (who seem to be on a weird tell the truth about Trump day today!) the President however is 'still not buying it'- as far as I am aware all 6 dept heads are Trump appointees, saying exactly the same as the previous Obama appointees said.
But not enough for Trump as for him to admit publicly there was any interference at all is, in his eyes, to admit they helped him win in some way, big or small. And his ego wont allow for that.
But refusing to even acknowledge it is happening is very dangerous for American democracy and independence in its voting systems.
What should be treated as a serious external threat is instead being ignored because the President has his fingers in his ears going "Nanananah can't hear you! Fake news! Didn't happen!" }}}

{{Finding the whole Trump pay off for a porn star he had an affair one year after marrying Melanie thing quite unbelievable- not that he did it- its clear as day he did. But that she was hushed up and paid off not to talk in the following manner-

'"In a private transaction in 2016, I used my own personal funds to facilitate a payment of $130,000 to Ms. Stephanie Clifford," Michael Cohen said in a statement. "Neither the Trump Organization nor the Trump campaign was a party to the transaction with Ms. Clifford, and neither reimbursed me for the payment, either directly or indirectly." - Fox (what is going on at Fox the last couple days, they got new owner or something?! Thats two days in a row of negative Trump coverage as headlines!)

Anyhow we are apparently meant to believe that Trump's lawyer, a blood sucking lawyer! (sorry Blue- no offense) paid a porn star 130,000 dollars out of his own pocket, with no compensation to keep her quiet, what out of civic duty? Goodness of his heart?
And that he neither told Trump or his campaign he had done it, or got any form of reimbursement for doing so?
I mean that's pretty damn incredulous stuff- does anyone believe it? (Even Fox dont seem to be buying it!) }}}