US General Election 2016

I suspect we're still getting the better part of the deal...

{{My favourite bit is how Trump is tweeting about what a terrible deal Obama made in moving the Embassy- first it was a great deal- they got it cheap as that bit was due to be revived and rebuilt, and now property there is worth a mint, but more importantly Obama never made the deal at all- Bush did, on security grounds. So Trump is wrong in regards to this on everything- it wasn't a bad deal, it wasn't an Obama deal, and he is not coming not because he doesn't like the Embassy its because if he does come most of Britain will turn up to tell him to fuck off again. }}}

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-ambassador-panama-resigns-donald-trump-john-feeley-not-work-president-a8156116.html

http://time.com/5101077/donald-trump-racist-michael-steele-shithole-countries/

http://www.newsweek.com/crazy-trump-fox-news-calls-praise-779532?utm_campaign=NewsweekTwitter&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

{{My worries about Trump are not that he is mad or has dementia, its that he knows exactly what he is saying and doing. Thats far worse to my mind.
He is dangerously conceding international ground to the Russians and the Chinese. His latest comments about African countries have led to real world ramifications- ambassadors have been recalled to explain things, public anger is very real there over it. That endangers US citizens and those who work for the government abroad. Africa is a tactical future battleground- its filthy rich in resources and China and Russia have been in there working hard for years to gain favour and get leverage. America is seceding that ground thanks almost solely to Trumps America First attitude. He has equally insulted Allies- the Prime ministers of the UK and France, he as insulted Germany, Holland and various other allies. Latest polling shows trust in America among allies to America is at an all time low of 32%.
America relies on these alliances for its security just as much as others rely on America for theirs.
There are very dangerous real world ramifications to some of Trumps off the cuff comments and early morning tweets. }}}

I think it's good to look at crossover voters who support him and think he's doing a good job - shows up the very real biases in reporting. Also shows voter concerns that are not being met that led to him being elected.

I also happen to think they are wrong in their interpretations of what's wrong with America, but that doesn't erase the evident business confidence that has occurred during his administration.

{{Business has ever right to be confident- but how much of that is Trump is harder to know- he came into a rising economy and inherited an economy Obama era policies had largely managed to heal- economies are doing better across the world than they were after the last global crash and Trump has no responsibility for all those economies. US trends are just part of global trends.
In fact its arguable these days what difference any one countries fiscal policies can actually make any more in a global market. The Arms trade is through the roof since he took office though- a sign he is making the world less safer.
Far as I can see all Trump has done the US is slash regulations protecting workers and the environment and cut taxes for businesses increasing their profit margins.
Yes there may be some trickle down- but the history of trickle down economics is that it doesn't. }}}

I agree with all of that, but we still have voters who don't feel their needs and concerns are being met by either party.  Which is true.  Though we need more than simpleton policy to address that.

What I see is a president who promised to slash regulations when he entered office, which he has done, and an economy and stock market that was excited at this prospect. My 401k and Roth IRA have boomed since November 9 2016.

Do I think Trump should publicly take credit for it? No, because there will be a bear market eventually, and things will turn south as they always do, and then he will be bearing the blame for that, whether it is his fault or not. However, even if he didn't take credit for the boom, he would be blamed for the fall anyway, by the usual suspects. I think with the tax cuts this is less likely to happen this year, and we will probably see continued growth, I hope.

I'm all for clarifying and simplifying regulations that have grown by accretion, but not in favor of cutting regulations just because it benefits business. They were put there for a reason. A bunch of coal miners will find protections to health gone, and toxic pollution regulations are being watered down or ignored.

So they can get on with the program, but they need to listen to both sides before making decisions. I don't see that happening. It's arguable that democrats didn't listen to industry, but surely we can find somebody who does government right?

we still have voters who don't feel their needs and concerns are being met by either party- Halfy

{{is that not always true? It is here!}}

and an economy and stock market that was excited at this prospect. My 401k and Roth IRA have boomed since November 9 2016.- Bungo

{{Problem is there is a much bigger picture here than any short term financial gains. As you rightly point out economies boom and bust its the nature of the capitalists system and no one has ever worked out a way yet to stop it happening. So to a large degree its not the main issue- it will rise and fall no matter what anyway.
Sadly governments only think to the next election but much of what Trump has done in deregulation may well come back later to cost America dearly in clean up costs, health costs and long term environmental damage and an erosion of the rights of workers. No point having your coal mining job back if most of the things which protected you from ill health long term, or exploitative hours or pay and pensions (and which took generations of workers fighting to get) are removed to make profit margins bigger.
These are all long term costs and history clearly shows its a real factor. But Trump has no long term thinking at all, possibly even less than a normal politician because he is clearly a narcissist- all he is concerned about is saying what Trump has done- the long term price of what he has done is not even a factor for him as its simply not as important as bragging rights on twitter. }}}

I gotta say that the new immigration policies are killing our community.
I know several people in this BBC video:

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-42667659/the-missing-consequences-of-trump-s-immigration-crackdown?ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=facebook

Yeah, my problem is not with the theoretical change of policy - that's what elections are for - but with the thoughtless ways policy is being implemented.  Obama may have shipped back more immigrants than any previous president, but you didn't notice it because of the focus on criminals.  Trump's approach is to go after easy targets.  It's an extension of his simpleton personality that has carried over into deregulation as well.

Holy crap, Trump was actually giving a coherent, optimistic speech. I could fully support his plans to invest in infrastructure and vocational schools. He had stayed off immigration. But when he did I feel the way he pulled in families to talk about how they had suffered from the loss of their daughters from gang violence was somewhat cruel. But at least after that he moved the discussion back into a more open and inclusive spin on things. Except for that one somewhat gross diversion he did a good job making the argument for immigration reform. Nobody *doesn't* want to reform immigration, but they didn't want to work with someone who was being so nasty about it. He seems to have gotten a new injection of diplomacy.

Everything he actually said well (for once) has dark background in things he's been doing the last year I can't agree with, but he's actually acting like a president again (he'd done it briefly once before). Can he keep this up? Can he stop his stupid-ass tweeting so that people feel they can actually work with him and come to the thoughtful compromises politics is all about? I have doubts but I hope so.

As I write this he just mentioned the wall again, but he did it quick and got off it to focus on border control and immigration policies instead. But he's making it sound reasonable, leaving room for negotiation. I think after getting Bannon out of there he's becoming more decently human. There was some discussion by reporters before he began that Trump had mentioned that he was learning that being president was very different from being a businessman - it wasn't about competition and beating back enemies, but about connecting and supporting people.

Okay, now he's talking about making our military even stronger than it is now. Can't agree with spending lots of extra money - we are already for stronger than any other military. I can only agree with fully supporting what we have right now. Though I'm happy to support the war on ISIS, I can't be happy about his hints that we'll go back to the hard interrogation and detention techniques of the Bush years.

Nice bit of theater with the Korean escapee. Trump didn't say much about what he would do about Korea, which was a good move because nobody knows what to do about Korea.

So I'll say it. He did a good job. (here's hoping he doesn't backslide). Given the proper audience and the discipline to stay on script he actually does okay.

I didn't watch. But I will tell you what, he will go back to tweeting today, and the media will say he's bombastic, uncouth, unpresidential, what have you, and you're not going to like it. If everyone else could see the tweets how his supporters see them, I think his approvals would be much better. He's not going to stop tweeting, he's a fighter. And honestly, if you don't know how to read the tweets by now, you're never going to understand.

{{Do explain to me the secret meaning behind him retweetng Britain First videos- unverified and from a group of nazi's who are utterly fringe UK politics and roundly condemned by all as racist, sexist thugs? What exactly is it I am missing here? What am I not reading?}}

The videos were shocking, would you agree? Regardless of who tweeted them, the content of the videos show the brutality and radical violence taking place in the areas that Trump wanted the travel ban for, and what could happen if the violence comes here. The media doesn't like the travel ban or immigration reform, Trump retweets, media has to show the brutal videos, millions of Americans see it, the strong images bias the viewer towards the president's position. It's visual persuasion.

Were the retweets not deleted? Did he not apologize in the Piers Morgan interview?

I'm not going to engage in this discussion any further with you, Petty.

If he appologised he must have done something worth appologising for. I think an issue is his inability to accept criticism. And after his "There were good people!" his comments relating to these issues will always be scrutinized.

halfwise wrote:Holy crap, Trump was actually giving a coherent, optimistic speech.  I could fully support his plans to invest in infrastructure and vocational schools.  He had stayed off immigration.  But when he did I feel the way he pulled in families to talk about how they had suffered from the loss of their daughters from gang violence was somewhat cruel.  But at least after that he moved the discussion back into a more open and inclusive spin on things.  Except for that one somewhat gross diversion he did a good job making the argument for immigration reform.  Nobody *doesn't* want to reform immigration, but they didn't want to work with someone who was being so nasty about it.  He seems to have gotten a new injection of diplomacy.

Everything he actually said well (for once) has dark background in things he's been doing the last year I can't agree with, but he's actually acting like a president again (he'd done it briefly once before).  Can he keep this up?  Can he stop his stupid-ass tweeting so that people feel they can actually work with him and come to the thoughtful compromises politics is all about?  I have doubts but I hope so.

As I write this he just mentioned the wall again, but he did it quick and got off it to focus on border control and immigration policies instead.  But he's making it sound reasonable, leaving room for negotiation.  I think after getting Bannon out of there he's becoming more decently human.  There was some discussion by reporters before he began that Trump had mentioned that he was learning that being president was very different from being a businessman - it wasn't about competition and beating back enemies, but about connecting and supporting people.

Okay, now he's talking about making our military even stronger than it is now.  Can't agree with spending lots of extra money - we are already for stronger than any other military.  I can only agree with fully supporting what we have right now.  Though I'm happy to support the war on ISIS, I can't be happy about his hints that we'll go back to the hard interrogation and detention techniques of the Bush years.  

Nice bit of theater with the Korean escapee.  Trump didn't say much about what he would do about Korea, which was a good move because nobody knows what to do about Korea.

So I'll say it.  He did a good job.  (here's hoping he doesn't backslide).  Given the proper audience and the discipline to stay on script he actually does okay.

As far as I remember the last time you spoke in this way about him was the last time he spoke to congress, and everyone said he sounded presidential. Please, judge him on merit, and not how he sounds.

Oh I'm waiting to see if he can bring congress together to work out a compromise immigration plan, which really does need to happen. But the way the democrats walked out as soon as the speech was over means he has a lot of bridges to rebuild and I'm not hopeful. If he had been as diplomatic over this last year as he was in the speech then things wouldn't be as broken as they are. But they are worse now than ever.

the videos show the brutality and radical violence taking place in the areas that Trump wanted the travel ban for, and what could happen if the violence comes here- Bungo

{{ One of them was debunked almost instantly- it was form Holland and was not in fact an immigrant or a Muslim, it was a Dutchman! The other two were completely unconfirmed and unsourced- however they could easily be taken in any brutal regime like Saudi Arabia where whippings, public execution and stoning to death is still the rage, and whom Trump was not slow to cosy up to whilst visiting and selling huge amounts of weapons to so they can continue to breach every human right on the statute books- terrible things happen everywhere, that's not the issue. The issue is one of responsibility. Trump openly admits he had no idea if those videos were genuine or anything about the group who posted them when he tweeted them.}}

Were the retweets not deleted? Did he not apologize in the Piers Morgan interview?- Bungo

{{ No, he offered to apologise which is not the same as actually making an apology. What he did say in that interview regards those tweets was that he was not aware of who Britain First were or what they stood for or represented when he made the tweets- which means the most powerful man in the world makes politically and socially charged tweets about which he openly admits he is ignorant of.
How can that instill anyone with confidence when his best defence is "I didn't know better"?

He is President of America and in theory Leader of the Free World- he cant be making what amounts to public statements and endorsements whilst being openly ignorant about what he is stating and endorsing.

These tweets have real effects- Britain First used it as recruiting propaganda- a fringe group hardly anyone in the UK even knew existed were suddenly front page news and on TV- boosting their reach and recruitment. That is a bad thing which has happened in the world, an actual bad thing which is a direct consequence of Trump's tweets and nothing else.
Its not theoretical, its not just a debate, it actual real world things he caused to happen just with his words- that's the power of the Presidency of America. And he is dangerously cavalier with it.

"I'm not going to engage in this discussion any further with you, Petty."

Why not? Because we dont agree? That's a terrible reason not to talk to someone. Because we disagree is a good reason to talk.   }}}

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/house-intel-memo-released-what-it-says/article/2647937?platform=hootsuite

* The Steele dossier formed an essential part of the initial and all three renewal FISA applications against Carter Page.

* Andrew McCabe confirmed that no FISA warrant would have been sought from the FISA Court without the Steele dossier information.

* The political origins of the Steele dossier were known to senior DOJ and FBI officials, but excluded from the FISA applications.

* DOJ official Bruce Ohr met with Steele beginning in the summer of 2016 and relayed to DOJ information about Steele's bias. Steele told Ohr that he, Steele, was desperate that Donald Trump not get elected president and was passionate about him not becoming president.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/02/02/house-memo-states-disputed-dossier-was-key-to-fbi-s-fisa-warrant-to-surveil-members-team-trump.html

It also claims the FBI and DOJ used media reporting to lend credibility to the dossier, while the firm behind the dossier, Fusion GPS, briefed major American news outlets to include New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, New Yorker, Yahoo and Mother Jones.

http://docs.house.gov/meetings/IG/IG00/20180129/106822/HMTG-115-IG00-20180129-SD001.pdf

{{Having had a cursory glance at whats released so far the only real issue I can see is them not telling the court of the documents funding origins- but it seems equally possible in their professional opinion it didn't matter who had funded it, it was troubling enough to warrant investigation no matter what.
The idea that Russia was trying and had tried to pervert US democracy was already well on the intelligence agency radar- and not just US intelligence- its agreed and accepted by most western European countries that Russia has a program of involvement in western democratic elections.
So its hardly surprising the FBI would be alarmed by a dossier from a former spy from a reputable and trusted allied intelligence agency claiming Russian involvement or blackmailing possibility of a President.
I think they would have been neglectful not to check it out (Incidentally in the UK the Intelligence agencies spy on all political candidates and check out their background, tap their phones ect as a matter of course, so from a UK perspective this whole row is a bit puzzling- as that's what your Intelligence Agency is there to do after all! )

As to Steele having a bias against Trump becoming President- well he is a former MI6 spy, I doubt you could find a single member, present or former, of the British intelligence agencies who wanted, or thought Trump for President was a good idea. So I dont think its either surprising, shocking, or hugely relevant that nor did Steele- whats important is if the information in the dossier is true or not - and that has never been confirmed or denied officially one way or another- but the FBI at the time thought it was a serious enough dossier to investigate further, which seems like their job to me.

This memo that was supposedly going to blow the lid of a corrupt FBI doesn't seem to to me.
It does seem however perfectly in line with all Trumps previous tactics against adversaries- whether that's political, press, sexual assault claims, or FBI- undermine and discredit those making the accusations, try to make them out to be liars or to have another agenda and sow distrust and suspicion of those who criticize him in order to discredit them- it has been his form every single time to date in a very clear pattern. This would also seem to fit that pattern of behaviour.}}

{{From the BBC on this story regards the parts of the dossier used by the FBI to get the warrant-}}

'the Republican memo was misleading because all the dossier excerpts used in the FBI warrant application were independently confirmed by US intelligence.'