Russian Roulette - will we dodge the bullet?

legal referendum or sneaky back door invasion, who the fuck knows. All I know is its scary.   

What exactly is this referring to?

Clearly the Crimea thing, but is anyone except Russia really likely to get involved on the ground level? Has somebody made noises in that direction?

I hope not and I seriously dont think anyone would be foolish enough to get involved on the ground, but what happens if Russia invades Ukraine proper, not just Crimea?   

Not a member of either EU or NATO, I expect there will be a lot of noise but no real action. What does Ukraine have that anyone except Russia really wants? Not like it has as much oil as Kuwait, or it will be the humanitarian crisis as seen in Ruwanda. Sad but true.

halfwise wrote:What does Ukraine have that anyone except Russia really wants?

If I were Polish, I'd answer, "A Non-Russian boarder to my East".

A more considered answer to your question, Mrs Figg.

This will be an important test of international diplomacy, and the balance between reason and force in the 21st century.

Putin would love nothing better than to go into the history books as the man who rebuilt the Soviet Union, and he's testing all the tools in his toolkit.

He tried to buy Ukraine with corruption, and that seems to have backfired. Now he's looking at military options, economic options, cyber-warfare options, political options, and diplomatic options.

In the end, Russia will have to retain some control over the Ukraine, especially Crimea, because they need to. But how they retain it is going to be very interesting. If I lived anywhere in Eastern Europe I'd be nervous....

In a way I can understand the Crimea going back to the fold of the Soviet border and the majority speak and feel Russian. If they hold a referendum and the majority has honestly voiced their wish thats fair enough, but as you said Putin wont stop there. He has shown nothing but disdain and arrogance towards Ukraine there would be nothing to stop him invading and he knows it. Who could defy him, certainly not China or the US without unbelivable consequences, it may be a case of just leaving them to get on with it, as long as there isnt bloodshed, but who knows how long peace will last.

You never know with peace how long it will last. Sadly it doesn't seem to be a natural condition. The oldest meanings of the word in many languages all relate to "something bought".

Well China have behaved interestingly, they abstained in the vote to condemn the referendum. Which for China, who normally back Russia at the global level, thats something for Putin to seriously consider. He will care more about China's opinion than about the opinion of any Western leader.

David H wrote:You never know with peace how long it will last.  Sadly it doesn't seem to be a natural condition.  The oldest meanings of the word in many languages all relate to "something bought".  

Really? That definitely says something.

Peace < Latin pax, peace < Latin pacare, to pacify or appease, from which we get our English word pay.

I understand Shalom has a similar root.

I don't think there is much danger of a wider conflict. Russia wants to repeat what they achieved in Georgia, which is by threat and use of military force force the country in question to accept that areas with a large russian population or strong russian influence become breakaway republics.

I'm a bit surprised the west hasn't reacted more forcefully this time around, they can't have been caught by surprise like they were in Georgia. Maybe their reaction tells you that the Crimea geo-politically never was considered much less than a part of Russia. And that it's therefore not worth the fight to hinder it breaking away.  

Things are going from bad to worse. Yesterday the first military casualties, and today a video which certainly helps Putin make his case, that the Ukraine has been taken over by right wing neo-nazis supported by the West.

Oh God, thats awful   To my mind, Blackout means that guy got a pasting that no one wants known about, Has he still got his fingers ? or any other part of his anatomy ? Its getting very serious, dont like it  

Yeah its not good, its certainly playing into Putins hands on the proganda front.

 I'm feeling kinda worried.

I know The referendum Crimea held isn't recognized by most of the countries in the west, but surely Putin has a point however small and underhand-if the Crimeans (largely Ethnic Russian Speakers) have 'spoken', what can (or should) we do to stop them? I don't think anyone has the rights to barge into a neighboring country like that, or go against the wishes of it's citizens.

I just hope they don't do something stupid before all the facts are out.

malickfan wrote: I'm feeling kinda worried.
.......
I just hope they don't do something stupid before all the facts are out.

Or after, for that matter.  

There is a lot of fear and worry being generated by Putin, especially in the countries bordering Russia-

'Polish writer Jerzy Haszczynski - in the Rzeczpospolita daily - urges people to mark the day of Putin's speech on their calendar.
"This is the day when the scales should fall from the eyes of Western people. Their eyes must instead shine with the desire to rescue the Western world and its values, such as respect for stability, security, law and democracy."

In Latvia, which has a large ethnic Russian minority, one commentator feels a looming military threat.
"Until recently, our army was seen as a symbolic structure [and] it did not seem realistic that an aggressive country might invade Latvian territory," Bens Latkovskis writes in the Neatkariga Rita Avize daily.
"Now the situation has changed. Russia already has army units in Crimea, and an armed invasion of continental Ukraine is now being considered as one of the possible scenarios for future developments."
He concludes: "Without coyness, these future scenarios are being described in terms of who will be next. We are on that list."

In Lithuania, events in Ukraine and Crimea have provoked similar unease about the future.
In the Lietuvos Rytas daily, commentator Andrius Uzkalnis asks readers to contemplate what it would look like "if what is happening in Crimea starts to happen in Lithuania".
In Lietuvos Zinios, Vytautas Landsbergis, Lithuania's first post-independence leader, says the "escalating war against Ukraine" reminded him of hearing air raid warnings on Radio Warsaw as a child at the start of World War Two.
He adds that the same warning - "Uwaga! Uwaga!" (Polish for "Attention! Attention!") - should be ringing in hesitant European leaders' ears when considering how to react to "the Kremlin aggression".

The Lithuanian ambassador to Ukraine, Petras Vaitiekunas, is quoted by business daily Verslo Zinios as saying that the Sunday Crimeans voted to join Russia was "the day when the world order collapsed, which for 69 years has guaranteed the peace of Europe".
"And there is no reason to think that the aggressor will stop or that Crimea will be enough."
What is most disturbing, he adds, is that Russia is "drenched in tears of joy and full of singing and dancing. This is a bad signal for us and the whole of Europe".


The tone of Czech daily Lidove Noviny is one of despair and frustration.
"Why is [Vladimir Putin] doing it? Because he wants to!" is the headline of a commentary by Zbynek Petracek.
"His real goal is to change the rules of the global game - to prove that Russia is a respected superpower entitled to have its own spheres of influence and push through its interests… Crimea was annexed because it could be easily done."

A Georgian paper, Rezonansi, agrees that the West can do little to deter Russia: "Ridiculous sanctions - the West's punishment is greeted with ironic amusement in Moscow", it says in a front-page headline.- BBC



Uncomfortable reading.

malickfan wrote:I know The referendum Crimea held isn't recognized by most of the countries in the west, but surely Putin has a point however small and underhand-if the Crimeans (largely Ethnic Russian Speakers) have 'spoken', what can (or should) we do to stop them? I don't think anyone has the rights to barge into a neighboring country like that, or go against the wishes of it's citizens.

I'm often sympathetic towards secessionist movements, regardless of whether or not I fully agree with them, but in this case we really can't say if the Crimean people have spoken. For one, they had just been invaded; two, there were reported ireggularities; three, no pre-crisis poll showed a majority supporting independence; and four, significant portions of the population (especially Crimean Tatars) boycotted the referendum. It's possible that a majority of Crimeans want to join Russia at this point, but I don't think the referendum proves that.

Eldorion wrote:

malickfan wrote:I know The referendum Crimea held isn't recognized by most of the countries in the west, but surely Putin has a point however small and underhand-if the Crimeans (largely Ethnic Russian Speakers) have 'spoken', what can (or should) we do to stop them? I don't think anyone has the rights to barge into a neighboring country like that, or go against the wishes of it's citizens.

I'm often sympathetic towards secessionist movements, regardless of whether or not I fully agree with them, but in this case we really can't say if the Crimean people have spoken.  For one, they had just been invaded; two, there were reported ireggularities; three, no pre-crisis poll showed a majority supporting independence; and four, significant portions of the population (especially Crimean Tatars) boycotted the referendum.  It's possible that a majority of Crimeans want to join Russia at this point, but I don't think the referendum proves that.

All very good points (as usual Eldo!), but it seems to me enough people have spoken in one way or another to at least validate some of what Putin is saying, perhaps another poll monitored by a neutral country would have been the best way forward.

Eldorion wrote:I'm often sympathetic towards secessionist movements, regardless of whether or not I fully agree with them

What about when Texas wanted to secede last year, or was it the year before.

Can't wait til later this year and then in 2016 when we start to hear my second favorite platitude "take our country back!"

bungobaggins wrote:

Eldorion wrote:I'm often sympathetic towards secessionist movements, regardless of whether or not I fully agree with them

What about when Texas wanted to secede last year, or was it the year before.

Can't wait til later this year and then in 2016 when we start to hear my second favorite platitude "take our country back!"

Why did Texas want to Secede? (I'm vaguely aware that there's some complications in it's status of statehood, something to do with Mexico?) Do they hate Obama that much?

In anycase I thought it was illegal for a state to secede?

They don't like Obama cuz he's black, and a muslim, and he's from Kenya.

And Texas was an independent state at one point in its history. As to the legality of secession, I'm not sure. Eldo help!   

bungobaggins wrote:They don't like Obama cuz he's black, and a muslim, and he's from Kenya.

Ah, yes of course, good to know they have their facts in order