Ukraine

{{ As it stands neither of them look good. Putin looks weak as does his military, a mercenary army he lost control of just marched right across his border and seized a Russian town, Putin has he has done many times now threatened the worst and delivered something quite different. Russians have a histroy of liking strong leaders, and punishing ones who are ineffectual.
And Prigozhin seems to have been hoping he would get a groundswell of ordinary Russians which has not materliased and is basically accepting exile, and to a place he will certainly not be safe in, if he actually goes to Belarus I wouldnt expect him to last long there.
I'm not sure, its hard to judge with Russia's media, if this has done much damage to Putin domestically, but I think it must have done internally within the corridors of power and the military.}}

Yes, but I doubt we'll see a quick flip of leadership the way we would if Prigozhin had completed his march to Moscow. Of course if he HAD completed the march and nobody turned out to support him his goose would be cooked. So we've got this mutual fizzle happening. In the same vein the Moscow cabinet may opt to sit on their hands and nothing much will come of this except a desultory withdrawal from most of Ukraine.

I wonder how much money they bribed him with.

Looks like he will be getting a Novochock cup of tea anytime soon.

I give him two months tops. He'll be watching for it, so immediate attempts are ruled out.

I think this guy has a real good theory. I've seen other things along these lines, but not as well thought out. Ukraine is about to be attacked from the North.

{{ Found this interesting, a Ukrainian blogger talking about the recent interesting series of events following the mutiny, with him meeting Putin and still not apparently in Belarus.
But this vid is also a good example of something I mentioned before, how Tolkien is being used in the propoganda of this war.

You'll hear in this how casually she uses phrases like, "Supreme orc, goblin Putin" or "They also need a translator from 'orc conciousness' (ie Russian) to 'normal conciousness'. I find it comes up all the time in Ukraine discourse now.
Thers a whole fascinating subculture here of Tolkien and the War in Ukraine.



as an interesting quirk of all this if you take the map of ME and superimpose it over modern Europe Ukraine would indeed border Mordor. Only on its southern border not its eastern. The Sea of Rhun would be more or less western Russia. }}

I predicted Pregozhin had two months, and it's been two months.

{{ 5 possibilities I see - tragic accident, Putin had him killed, America had him killed, he faked his own death, one of his own men committed mutiny and set it up. }}

Putin had him killed

Why would America have him killed??

I think it is quite clear that the there had been a couple of months of the long knives in Russia. Lots of people have woken up dead recently... seems to be a bit of a purge going on. More so than usual.

Wonder of the consequences of this over the coming months. Excuse for Putin to pull out of this mess or to double down and get a bigger mobilisation together to try and finish the job.

It will be like trying to fight while hopping around on one leg without the Wagner group. But proving that he's bad ass enough to take out his former friend is more important to Putin than winning in Ukraine. I'm afraid he'll only get crazier from here on out.

Why would America have him killed??- Halfy

{{ Always has to be considered given America's form and history of breaking international law repeatedly to assassinate people in their own countries (sometimes just for fun you murder democratically elected presidents and replace them with total insane nutjobs who then torture, murder and rape their way through tens of thousands of people, often for decades at a time, and all on the US tax payers tab. 'U.S.A....U.S.A.' If you can justify that you can easily justify taking out the Wagner boss to weaken Russian military capabilities, especially in Africa where the real Wagner focus is for Russia, and to create a split in Putin's support with those who were heavily enamoured of Wagner.

So like any good detective would, when you find another suspicious murder of an important foreign personage, it's prudent to look and see if America's fingerprints are on anything. They very often are.}}

Wasn't enough in American financial interests to do away with him. That's mainly reserved for leaders who will focus on their own people as opposed to a nice dictator sitting in the wings who will export to America to line their own pockets.

{{ I was thinking more of the goings on in Africa right now, not just Niger but BRICS too. Can't tell me America doesn't have concerns there and a lot of those concerns are about who gets Africa's wealth. And Wagner are Russia's main operatives in Africa.
America's financial interests I feel are in play here. }}

America has NEVER had interest in Africa except in Libya during Khaddafi, or the Somalia pirates. Anything exported from Africa is easier to manage from South America. Except for Libya, I don't think we've overthrown or propped up a single leader in Africa ... and that's sort of our hobby. The effort simply isn't worth it.

{{ No but having a group of your geopolitical opponents setting up shop there and striking deals and exploiting the resources is not something the US will be ignoring either. Historically for America assassinating people hasn't always been about making sure it gets all the money, but making sure the other side isn't getting it.}}

enh, Wagner has been in Africa for a while.   America sees Putin as more of an enemy than Prigozhin, and has more interest in him being a thorn in Putin's side.  Be more likely to have acted earlier rather than now, if there was to be any action.  Sorry, but Prigozhin just doesn't fit the profile of someone America would target.

the same goes for Ukraine: if they wanted him, now is not the time to do it unless he had some hanky panky going on in Belarus.  Nope, Putin is the only reasonable suspect here.  If one of Pregozhin's own men did it, you can be sure he was looking for a pay off.