FREEDOM!!!! [3]

'a Sunday Times poll suggests the Yes camp has taken the lead for the first time.
Some 51% of those who have made up their mind and intend to vote back an independent Scotland while 49% plan to vote no, the YouGov poll suggests.
Better Together leader Alistair Darling said it was a "wake-up call".
A Downing Street source said David Cameron would "strain every sinew" to make the case for the union.
The prime minister believes there is "only one poll that matters", the source added.'- BBC

All to play for now!

Very good pro indie piece from the Guardian of all places-

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland

Well the No side are in full panic mode- apparently there is going to be a joint announcement from all the Westminster parties laying out the extra powers we will get if we vote NO.

So first off they denied the chance to have devomax on the ballot paper- then when the polls started narrowing they started promising more powers despite that not being on the ballot, but all the NO parties offered something different and none of them agreed and most of it was an unknown, just 'more powers', and now YES are pulling ahead they are going to try to bribe us with some form of devomax agreed among themselves with no consultation of the people or the Scottish Parliament? A gift from Westminster we are no doubt supposed to fall to our knees over in gratefulness.
Too little too late.

And this is being spearheaded by the Tories who opposed us getting devolution in the first place and whose current Scottish party leader got elected standing on a platform regards devolution of 'this far no further'.
And we are meant to trust them now, this late in the game, when they are clearly only making these offers in an attempt to bribe us? (otherwise devomax would have been on offer from the start)

There's a ton of panic in pro-union media as well.  I've read a bunch of editorials claiming that the only way to save the union is to transform it into a federal state, but the comments from Osborne and Darling seem to suggest they're going to offer a more conventional (and limited) form of devomax as discussed previously, which really doesn't seem like enough to tip the scales at this point considering how many previous opportunities they've had to elaborate on this.  It isn't actually anything new (unless they really do go full Lib Dem and offer federalism).

On one level its kind of funny how they are reacting.

But the very idea that they think the offer they plan to make is in the best interests of Scotland is laughable. They have had 3 years to tell us what would happen if we vote no and they are only deciding to tell us what that is now with less than 2 weeks to go!

Its also possibly illegal. The rules here involve a period known as purdah, which as the BBC states-

'The UK and Scottish governments are prohibited from publishing anything which argues "for or against a particular outcome" during purdah.'

You are supposed to have made your case by now and are only allowed to campaign for the position already stated.

Using weasely lawyer terms (sorry Blue!) Osbourne is claiming his new big announcement this week will not break these rules as the plan, despite being announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is not coming from the UK government but from the Unionist partners.

If its not breaking the letter of the law its certainly stomping all over the spirit of it.

The other huge problem is it is unfair, as postal voting has already commenced and thousands have already voted.
Its too late in the game now to making these sort of major changes to their position. And the electoral commission may well yet step into this one.

Rumours are flying also that the Scottish Sun is going to come out in favour of Independence tomorrow.
I dont think the influence is huge, though it is the top read tabloid in Scotland, the Sun has a habit of switching to who they think is the wining side right before the vote.
They were a Tory paper during Thatcher and Major, swung behind Blair when they saw how the wind was blowing, and in Scotland they switched to labour when they were in power here, then jumped ship to SNP right before the SNP landslide win, and now it seems they are jumping ship again from Unionist to independence.
Like I say I don't think it will make much difference, but they are usually a good indication of which way the political wind is blowing.

I was not aware of the purdah rule or that vote by post had already begun. That takes this move from desperate to scummy.

Pettytyrant101 wrote:Rumours are flying also that the Scottish Sun is going to come out in favour of Independence tomorrow.
I dont think the influence is huge, though it is the top read tabloid in Scotland, the Sun has a habit of switching to who they think is the wining side right before the vote/

I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. Murdoch has been making a number of vaguely pro-Scottish independence posts on Twitter, including some massively hypocritical but spot-on calling out of the BBC's bias in favor of the No side. I wonder if he's trying to get back at Cameron and co. for abandoning him during the phone hack controversy, though your point about the political winds shifting is a simpler explanation.

I think for Murdoch its two birds with one stone- he keeps sales of his paper high by going with what seems popular and he gets to stick one to Cameron for the whole NotW thing.

On the scare front- so much for the referendum destroying Scotlands economy-

'Business activity in Scotland's private sector rose solidly in August although the rate of growth slowed by 2.2% from the July high, according to the Bank of Scotland.
The bank's latest purchasing managers survey found expansion in manufacturing and services, along with the fastest increase in employment in six months.
Manufacturers recorded rising overall new orders, although they saw a fall in export sales.
The figures are thought to indicate high levels of business confidence.
Donald MacRae, chief economist at Bank of Scotland, said: "August saw a broad-based rise in business activity across both the services and manufacturing sectors.
"Employment rose at the fastest rate for six months confirming continuing high levels of business confidence."
The study recorded that Scottish private sector employment remained "on the up" as a result of growing workloads.
The extent of August's increase in staffing numbers was the most marked since February and in excess of the UK average.'- BBC Business

Pretty much no matter what happens now in the referendum I think its safe to say the Unionist parties have lost, even if the vote is a No.
From a starting position of more than a 20 point lead and a position of offering no further devolved powers they have ended up in a neck and neck race in which they are having to offer more and more devolved powers to try to stave off a YES vote.

But how?
Here's my thoughts on what the No side have got very wrong.

1. Whoever told the NO campaign the best way to convince Scots to stay was to threaten and try to frighten them should be sacked.
If you want a Scot to jump off a pier tell him he cant do it and try to scare him about the risks of doing so, and he will be off the end of that pier before you have finished.
Since the NO campaign started it has been built on trying to scare off voters from Independence. Calling their own campaign Project Fear was also blindingly stupid as it was always going to eventually leak out that was what they called it and give the whole game away, which is precisely what happened very early on. You cant scare people as easily if they know you are just trying to scare them.
And if you are going to use scare tactics don't make them so ludicrous they are beyond believing. Some of the NO side claims have gone beyond parody, favourites include-
Edinburgh Zoo will lose its pandas- “No one has fully understood the ramifications for the pandas of any bid for Scottish independence.”
Scotland would be vulnerable to attacks from space  according to the Defence Secretary.
Labour peer Lord Robertson declared that an independent Scotland would be “cataclysmic” for the West, threaten global stability and be welcomed by “the forces of darkness”.
Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham warned that he didn’t want to have to drive on the right when he came to an independent Scotland.
And lets not forget being told Scotland would become a terrorist haven and Westminster might one day have to bomb Glasgow airport!
And of course my personal favourite- Westminster Culture Secretary Maria Miller claimed that viewers in independent Scotland would not be able to watch Doctor Who. (despite Who being broadcast currently in 75 different countries and about another thousand places online!)
It becomes difficult to take anything said by the NO campaign seriously when they trot out this sort of stuff, and they are still doing it. Last week Ed Miliband, current Labour Party leader declared there would need to be armed guards on the border if we vote YES.
Other threats include annexing Faslane and Coulport in order to keep nuclear weapons there, and they have gone from a position of Scotland would be refused entry to the EU to it'll take longer than the SNP claim to get entry, which is a hll of a difference. Which brings me onto my second point.

2. Shifting ground. Maybe the NO campaign should watch more Doctor Who, as Clara recently pointed out in that show if you start out with an extreme threat then the only place you have to go in negotiations is backwards. And then you weaken your own position.
The NO side have shifted ground continually. The position they currently hold is completely different from their starting one, and with Osbourne promising this big new announcement this week its about to shift ground yet again with less than two weeks till the vote. This does not give confidence in the position held, it looks opportunistic and reactionary. There is no consistency to their argument, they change with the polling weather. When the NO side needed to look like they had a plan, an idea, a future in mind they instead look like they are panicking and trying anything to get votes. Which leads neatly into point three.

3. No vision. The SNP early on laid out their stall and published a lengthy White Paper on how they saw independence working, the timetables for it and the sort of country they wanted Scotland to become. They released it immediately to the public, put it on line and sent a shorter headline bulletin version to every household. Whether you think its pie in the sky or realistic is for the sake of this argument not material- it was a clear view and a clear plan for how the YES side saw the future of the country that people could read and assess for themselves.
The NO campaign has no comparative narrative. Their message has been 'stay in the Union or the sky will fall in on your heads'. This is not very visionary or inspiring and not much to get folk excited about the future of the Union.
When it finally dawned on the NO campaign that they might need to make some more offers and but some flesh on the bones of a future Union they couldn't agree on what it would be and we ended up with three completely different, wildly varied proposal, where there were any proposal at all, and a promise of jam tomorrow if we only vote NO. And no clear line between the promises made and if and when they would be delivered on.
Now they are realising this was pretty poor too and have finally decided they need a single idea to present to the the people of Scotland and a timetable for what a future in the Union would look like, but its come so late in the campaign it looks like what it is, panic and an offer only made in adversity not out of any real sense that is the NO sides genuine vision. Also as its not on the ballot paper any promises made to deliver these extra powers is just that, promises with no legal backing at all or legitimacy which devomax on the ballot paper would have guaranteed. Which brings me onto point four.

4. The single largest mistake made by the NO side was not putting devomax on the ballot paper- it was by far the most popular option when the debate began at 70% approval, would have split the YES vote and secured Scotland  staying in the Union. Thinking they could get away with not giving any more powers away and still securing a NO vote has proved disastrous as now they are having to promise those powers anyway, making their original position pointless, and it has allowed the YES vote to surge as more people see no other alternative worth voting for.

5. David Cameron. Cameron has mishandled his own role in this debate from the beginning. His first major speech to Scotland on the referendum was made from an Olympic Park in London from where he talked at us. On the few occasions he has come to Scotland he has made speeches at the people from the safety of cosy dinners with his pro-Union business pals like the CBI and he refuses point blank still to take part in any of the televised debates.
The NO side thinking here seems to be Tories are very unpopular in Scotland, Cameron would have made it worse. But that is to mistake the nature of Scots in general. We don't like Tories but we would respect and listen to him if he came here to engage in the debate.
The long running sense that Scotland has been dictated to by London Westminster elites for decades regardless of what effect it has on Scotland is not helped by the current Prime Minister being from just such an elite cliché only talking at us from London. By doing so he has only epitomised the problem as many people see it with the Union and become its living embodiment.
Cameron claims he is genuinely passionate about the Union, Scot react well to passion, had he come here, talked to the ordinary people, taken part in the debates and showed that genuine passion it might not have convinced people, but it would not have pushed them away as his attitude has done. It has been a massive miscalculation. He is supposed to be the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the very pinnacle of the political Union, yet he cannot even speak with the people of Scotland about why we should remain in the Union.

I havent had a chance to see todays Sun yet, so still dont know if they have gone over to YES officially yet, but their front page today is certainly not Union friendly-



And even the pro-Union Daily Record has a cover not very flattering to the No side even whilst the paper still maintains its NO stance editorially.



And nice to see the Doctor dropping by to witness the historic event!  

Another Osbourne NO cock-up.
Deciding to draw on Canada's message to Quebec which overturned a yes lead there in the final days Osbourne has used the line they used word for word-

"Vote No and get something better."

But he seems ignorant of his own countries history. As those words were also spoken by Tory, Sir Alec Douglas Home in the 1970's referendum on devolution.
Scots did say NO and got 18 years of Thatcher in return and nothing better.
Not something you would think the Unionist side would be wanting to reawaken in peoples minds.

The panic attack is in full flight among the NO side.

Tomorrow PM Questions is cancelled as all three main party leaders come to Scotland to bribe and cajole. The saltire has been hoisted over Downing Street and the edict has gone out to English councils to fly the Scottish flag too.
Its the Quibec solution. Only more panicky and desperate.

So whats on offer?- um, well a timetable.
The NO side have still not agreed a unified package, we still have three very different offers on the table, and no guarantee what we will get if we vote NO or who from. That would depend on who wins the next UK general election and has to implement it.
But they have agreed a timetable for when powers will be worked out and eventually put into practice- we dont know which powers though.
The timetable was announce yesterday by ex-PM and Labour party leader Gordon Brown, who is not even ion politics any more at Westminster or in Scotland. So why Brown?
Well it circumnavigates the electoral rule on the purdah period as Brown is not officially part of the Westminster parties.

So what's on offer form NO more precisely?

Labour- MSPs should be able to vary tax by up to 15p, giving them the option of restoring the 50p rate for top earners. They would also be able to cut the 45p rate but only if the basic rate was cut as well.
Labour also said housing benefit should be devolved to Holyrood, devolving the attendance allowance - paid to disabled over-65s - and the work programme, which manages services for the unemployed.
All other pensions and benefits would stay at Westminster, and there would be no powers for Holyrood over corporation tax, national insurance, VAT, capital gains tax or air passenger duty.

Lib-Dems- Under the Liberal Democrats' Scottish "home rule" vision, Holyrood would raise and spend most of its own taxes and borrow on its own terms. the Barnett formula - used to work out Treasury funding to the UK's devolved areas - should be replaced with a "needs-based" arrangement.
Oil would continue to be managed at a UK level, as would welfare and pensions, defence and foreign affairs.

Tories- Their big bribe is income tax. the income tax plan would see the Scottish Parliament accountable for 40% of the money it spent, also said there was a case for a share of Scottish VAT receipts being assigned to the Scottish Parliament.
It recommended the tax-free personal income tax allowance should remain reserved to Westminster.


This seems like nothing like enough to me. We are being offered fringe powers, tinkering around the edges, but all our revenue from exports, oil, wind, gas, electricity, all still flow south to London. No oil fund either which is madness. And despite poll after poll showing we dont want Trident here and have no wish to be a nuclear power, we will have no say in it being here, right next to our densest population area.

And none of these offers are on the ballot paper, or have any legal guarantee or basis, its just promises it will happen if we trust them and vote NO.
We have no idea which of these three options will be implemented, or if it will be a mix of bits from each.

Is it too little to late? That we will know in 9 days time. I sincerely hope my fellow country folk hold firm and are not swayed by these obvious attempts to bribe only made in the face of defeat and not made in the best interests of Scotland. If the Unionists wanted these powers to go to Scotland they have had more than two years to tell us that and to campaign on them.
Doing it with 9 days to go, when many have already voted by post is not only underhanded and in breach of the spirit of purdah, it reeks of their desperation not to lose what they know they gain from Scotland at the expense of the people of Scotland.

In what might be seen as an omen of sorts the hoisting of the Saltire over Downing Street took two attempts, after the first attempt failed and the flag fell down!

When was it Cameron said he would remain neutral, as this was an internal Scottish issue?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11089388/North-Korea-backs-Scottish-independence.html

North Korea is quietly backing the Yes vote in Scotland and would be keen to increase trade with a newly independent Edinburgh, according to officials of the Pyongyang regime.

"I think that independence would be a very positive thing for Scotland," Choe Kwan-il, managing editor of the Choson Sinbo newspaper, told The Telegraph.

Supported by Pyongyang, the Tokyo-based publication provides news to an estimated 200,000 Koreans who live in Japan but swear allegiance – and send vast amounts of financial support – to North Korea.

"We have not reported on the vote in Scotland yet, but we will after it has happened," Choe said.

"I believe that every person has the right to be a member of an independent nation, to have sovereignty, to live in peace and to enjoy equality," he said. "And I believe that a majority of Scots feel the same and will vote for independence."

So Chung-on, director of the International Affairs Bureau of The General Association of Korean Residents of Japan, said he was unaware if the forthcoming vote has been reported to the public in North Korea, but added that it almost certainly will be if Scotland votes "Yes".

"The result will be very important and if the Scots do vote to become independent, then North Korea will be prepared to respond to that," he said.

He said it is unlikely that North Korea will seek to establish an embassy in Edinburgh – due to cost concerns – although he added that he expects Edinburgh to have a diplomatic presence in Pyongyang through the existing British Embassy.

"I believe independence will be positive as it will encourage personal exchanges and provide both countries with business chances," said Choe. "North Korea is rich in natural resources and we like the taste of Scotch whisky, so we can be beneficial to each other."

Holy shit.

Holy shit indeed, This is one very strong willed, determined man who seems to know his onions !

Well its been all go the last few days.
A frenzy of love mingled with outright threats!

Cameron loves his country more than his party!

Milliband tells us vote No to independence then vote Labour next year for a socialist UK wide utopia (anyone told the English this is his plan and that they have to vote for him too?)

And Clegg, well he was here too apparently.

Today the scare tactics are coming from Cameron's business chums. In an open letter the heads of Asda the Kingfisher group, John Lewis and Marks and Spencer (they even still exist?! ) warn of higher prices after a YES vote.

However scratch the surface and it soon emerges Cameron has put them up to it, when questioned on the matter Downing Street refused to deny or confirm if the PM had spoken to these groups in the last few days to arrange this, and would only say that Mr Cameron had "made no secret" of his wish for anyone with concerns to make their voices heard. So thats political speak for yes but we arent tell you that.

More sensible groups, like Tesco and Morrisons have refused to sign the letter, they say some prices may go up and some may go down, that the whole point of independent it will depend on what sort of policies are pursued afterwards. They give Ireland as an example, where some goods are more expensive than in the UK, but other goods cost less.
And other groups like business for Scotland, and the Aberdeen Assets firm say the economy would be more successful, and the chairman of Weatherspoons dismissed it saying there was no reason at all for prices to go up and Scotland could be a very successful country.
So it just more of the same but better orchestrated this time.
I hope it doesnt work in making enough wobble come the vote which is clearly the aim of all this.

Lively debate last night too, with the new generation of younger voters getting to put their questions, the 16-18's who have been given the vote for the first time. Anyone who says 16 year olds wont know what they are on about, lack the life experience or just wont be interested should have had their concerns put to rest by watching them conduct themselves last night.

As to the above vid of Salmond telling it straight to the BBC- this is why the YES vote as gotten so close to winning. The NO side spin a scare story, and then Salmond comes on and explains what sounds very much like the actual truth of the situation, and everyone goes, 'oh, is that all it was', and moves on.
The story of RBS moving out of Scotland dominated yesterdays BBC Scotland coverage, even though not a single job or bit of tax is moving, just the brass plaque.

A troo Scootsmun, aye!

Willie's an American. Just what you need to run a new country!

Seen on another forum:

From 1997 voting yes for a scottish parliament will

cost us more...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/news/08/0822/scotbank.shtml

harm businesses...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/news/300897MAJ.shtml

impoverish scotland. a yes vote will be a 'jobs holocaust...'
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/same-old-tories-looking-back-3014315

make scotland a 'high-tax ghetto...'
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/same-old-tories-looking-back-3014315

wreak 'frightening financial consequences...'
http://archive.commercialmotor.com/article/4th-september-1997/10/scots-warned-on-devolution

upset big business and the CBI
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/news/280897CBI.shtml

harm the climate for business in scotland...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/news/09/0907/devolution.shtml

lead to job losses...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/election-97-lang-in-row-over-scottish-job-fears-1269117.html

harm fragile rural communities and undermine agriculture...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/devolution/scotland/news/250897.shtml

lead to a weaker scotland, suffering from less inward investment...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/1997/apr/24/past.electionspast1

and yes, even in 1997, big business threatened to leave if democracy prevailed…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/election-97-lang-in-row-over-scottish-job-fears-1269117.html

Yeah but dont forget Eldo according to Cameron and the NO side we can be a successful independent country, its just according to the same people every single individual bit of that country would catastrophically fail instantly.
Anyone else spot the problem with this argument?!

2 days to go!!!!

And the NO side have taken out a front page in the Daily record making a pledge!
Which is apparently better than a promise. Though notably still short of anything legally binding and still just words. And vague words at that- we get guaranteed more powers, but till no clue what powers, we get a guaranteed timetable for delivery, which is impressive given they dont actually seem to know what powers they will be discussing which makes me wonder how they know how long it will take to discuss them (and at least one Tory backbencher has come out already  saying they will not vote for more powers to Scotland, and William Hague let slip that these were 'election campaign promises', meaning not necessarily followed through on).
And there is nothing at all ridiculous or desperate about making all these promises on the front of a newspaper two days before the vote after over 2 years of campaigning, not at all.

My favourite bit is where Cameron says he has always been in favour of more powers, claiming he always maintained, "if Scotland voted no to separation, the rest of the United Kingdom would say yes to further devolution".

Um only if by 'always' he means since last week when the poll put the SNP just ahead.
He is the man who refused devomax on the ballot.
Does he think we have all forgotten? That we didn't notice there was no devo anything on offer for 99% of the campaign?