Re: The Bigger, Badder, Even More Serious Thread [3]

[Norc]

japan zero?

[Pettytyrant101]

Lot of sword fights though.

[Norc]

ofcourse.

[Eldorion]

japan zero?

They average something like 10-20 shooting deaths per year in a nation of 120 million people, largely because they have some of the strictest gun laws on the planet, so for the purposes of that chart it's practically zero. Their other violent crime statistics are closer to other industrialized countries, though.

[Lorient Avandi]

Does the good ol BBC have a chart for all non-gun related murders, or murders with other weapons. I'm not pro gun or anything but many people fail to realize that guns aren't the only things that kill.

[Eldorion]

Wikipedia has a good list of countries by intentional homicide rate, which includes all murders regardless of weapon. The list uses data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and can be sorted by homicide rate if you click on that column.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#By_country

The U.S. is nowhere near the top of the list, but it's still uncomfortably ahead of most other developed "first world" nations. The U.S. is near the middle, between Belarus and Thailand. For comparison, Japan is in the top (or bottom) 10 with one of the lowest homicide rates.

[David H]

I'm not so sure we've earned the title. I don't know where the line is on "first world" but I'm pretty sure Russia expects to be on that list.

[Eldorion]

Putting on my Poli Sci student hat here, Brazil and Russia are usually considered to be somewhere around the border between the "first" and "second" worlds. Some people like to talk about the BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- that are still developing but closer to the top tier than most nations that are thought of as "second world".

It's not a distinction that's probably of much use or interest to anyone in the real world, but I thought I'd mention it.

[David H]

There's another factor too. For countries that have land boarders, there's always a spillover effect from neighbors. I'll try to do a crude bar graph to show the point.

From North to South, Homicides per 100,000:

Canada ___1.6 XX
USA _____4.8 XXXXX
Mexico __22.7 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Belize ___41.4 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Guatemala38.5 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ElSalvador69.2XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Honduras91.6XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

It's interesting to note that the pattern is also apparent state by state, with those bordering on Canada being much lower than those bordering on Mexico or the Gulf/Caribbean.

[David H]

Putting on my Poli Sci student hat here, Brazil and Russia are usually considered to be somewhere around the border between the "first" and "second" worlds. Some people like to talk about the BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- that are still developing but closer to the top tier than most nations that are thought of as "second world".

It's not a distinction that's probably of much use or interest to anyone in the real world, but I thought I'd mention it.

I've heard what we say about them, but I've also heard what Chinese and Russians say about us. Don't forget that we're dependent on them for a lot of our industry now, not to mention our space program.

[halfwise]

And yet if you do the calculation (murder rate by gun)/(total murder rate) I think it's clear the US would still come out on top among the countries listed on the BBC chart - don't know about these others.

The next question is whether or not if you decrease the number of guns or access to guns, does the total murder rate go down or stay constant? I would suspect just by ease of use it would go down - you can't outrun a bullet.

[Mrs Figg]

Columbia is pretty dangerous too from what some Columbian friends say. They have some horror stories that make my toes curl.

[David H]

And yet if you do the calculation (murder rate by gun)/(total murder rate) I think it's clear the US would still come out on top among the countries listed on the BBC chart - don't know about these others.

It's fair to look at the source of the chart though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index
There were 16 countries omitted between Japan and UK in order to get the UK, who ranked 28th, into the same club. That instantly brings the statistical validity into question.

It's like the 1st world/ 2nd world line in the sand which is an old relic of the Cold War and historically had more to do with whether your friends were Anglo or Slavic than with anything measurable. (BTW check out the Inequality Adjusted HDI in the wiki link. USA and UK are 23 and 19 rather than 4 and 28

The next question is whether or not if you decrease the number of guns or access to guns, does the total murder rate go down or stay constant? I would suspect just by ease of use it would go down - you can't outrun a bullet.

But is there any way to quantify "access"? And while number of guns is theoretically measurable, there's a lot of information that's lost in that number. I suspect the effect on murder rate depends on exactly how the number of guns is decreased. Any reduction of numbers would need to be done carefully at the risk of instability.

For example, the quickest, most cost effective way to reduce the number of guns in the United States would be to confiscate all the military and law enforcement small arms and sell them to the highest foreign bidder, which might include Mexico and Canada. This would instantly take tens of millions of guns out of circulation and would generate billions of dollars of revenue that could then go to worthy causes. But I doubt if it would reduce the murder rate.

[Pettytyrant101]

Well when they find drugs they seem very keen on having bonfires and just destroying it- presumably confiscated guns could equally be destroyed and their materials recycled.

[David H]

Columbia is pretty dangerous too from what some Columbian friends say. They have some horror stories that make my toes curl.

Yes, Latin America has a lot of problems right now. It's not open warfare, but there are a lot of armed militias and cartels who are not very nice at all! And I could ride there on a little grey pony! That's where all the debate about securing our boarders comes from.

Imagine if Italy had an open boarder with North Africa, or if England were floated over and fused to South Africa. Putting all racism and xenophobia aside, it still makes the number of guns in circulation a bit more complex to control.

[David H]

Well when they find drugs they seem very keen on having bonfires and just destroying it- presumably confiscated guns could equally be destroyed and their materials recycled.

That's what's done right now. In addition, many cities have buyback programs where they buy any guns that are brought in as long as the money lasts, no questions asked. These are good as far as they go in that they're presumably taking guns that weren't secure out of circulation. But it's not enough to even be measurable among the hundreds of millions of guns that are around us every day.

[Mrs Figg]

we dont need to float over to N Africa, we got Naples.

[David H]

You bring up an interesting point Mrs Figg. I just looked up the homicide rate for Italy. It's a very civilized 0.9 per 100,000. The UK is a full 1/3 higher at 1.2

Having lived in both places, do you think there are things that the UK justice system can learn from the Italian justice system to make Britain safer?

[Mrs Figg]

I think its more to do with the strength of the family unit here. Kids are kept under control by family members, the myth of the strong Italian mama has some basis in truth. The kids here are a lot noisier and louder than English kids but they seem less sophisticated and indipendant than the UK kids, they also stay at home until they are 35, have many brothers and sisters aunts uncles cousins around to help out. In the UK kids are left to their own devices and are more isolated, problems are left to fester and grow into anti social behaviour in the UK. There is also the culture of alcohol in the UK, its seen as a manly thing to do, to get pissed and pass out is seen as 'cool'. this applies to girls as well. In Italy older kids/teenagers drink one glass of wine with their meals and they see their parents respectful of the local wine and grow to appreciate the wine as something not to get drunk with but as a refined pleasure. They know all about regional/taste/quality/history of wine, here its a religion like food is.
So its a complex cultural issue, there is not yet the vast amount of immigrant families of second third generation who become ghetoized and get the victim mentality and go on the rampage. The majorityof immigrants are chinese and they keep to themselves and work 24/7. there are not yet swathes of disafected youth from ex colonial countries. The main problems of violence I see here come from Albanian, Romanian countries and most of all gypsies. gun crime is rare apart from the mafia killings and robberies, and hunting accidents but it is getting worse, even in the last 10 years.

[David H]

That really sounds quite civilized. It's not quite the picture that the media likes to paint for us.

As with here, I'm guessing that most of the violence occurs in the cities where the family and community structures aren't so well established. Does that sound right?

[Mrs Figg]

yes, its mainly in cities and mainly connected with extracomunitarians. Round here in the countryside for example there has been a spate of horrible crimes all committed by Albanian gangs. A priest was murdered, and then an old woman was tied up and left for dead, lately a man was knifed and left paralized for life, and a disabled woman attacked in her bed. All these were Albanians being truly ferocious against defenceless people. People here are frightened and angry, it causes racial tension, but who is to blame? Italians generally dont commit ferocious crimes against weaker members of society, and if they do its mostly the kind caused by antiquated sexism against wives ex partners and such. then it gets gruesome. then theres the mafia and they are pretty horrific too, but generally against each other not innocent bystanders.

[azriel]

Do you think their Catholic religion helps also ? Italians seem to have a respect of human life better than UK-ers, which I felt when I visited Italy, was due to their belief, & the way to treat each other as you would like to be treated ? They do seem a closer knit people than us in the UK, closer in family & closer in friendships. & I felt there was respect for the older generation by the younger generation, which I feel we just dont have here in England. I saw an older man tell off some young kids for "play fighting" in a park, & the kids just ok'd & went quietly off, unless they got him round the corner, I didnt see any insult, yet here in England youde get a F**k off ! if you tell anyone off. Theres no fear of the Police here either, I was certainly NOT going to be naughty in any way when I saw the Italian police with firearms !!

[Mrs Figg]

yes its a generally more traditional society, its like the 70s in England. which has pros and cons.

[Pettytyrant101]

You mean its sexist and everyone wears tank tops!

[Mrs Figg]