The Falkland Islands- another war in the making?

Not watched 11th Hour yet Mrs Figg?

Telepathic spoiler for Petty.

I cancelled it, I dont want any trouble, I am too tired to run.

Cameron is at it again- now on top of Prince Williams completely unsuspicious 'routine' tour in the Falklands he has sent the destroyer HMS Dauntless into the region, but it ok becasue this too is just part of 'routine' tour.
The Argentinian President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, has responded by saying she will take the matter to the UN.

'She accused the UK of "militarising the South Atlantic one more time".
"We will present a complaint to the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, as this militarisation poses a grave danger to international security," Ms Fernandez said.
"We cannot interpret in any other way the deployment of an ultra-modern destroyer accompanying the heir to the throne, who we would prefer to see in civilian attire."- BBC news

Waht the hell is Cameron playing at (apart form some twisted Thatcher fantasy)? There are many countries inthe UN who have strong memories of British Colonial diplomacy where we just sent in the gun ships and this looks an awful lot like that. Other countries in the region, such as Brazil, who backed us last tme because they had no love and a lot of fear of the military juncta in Argentina at the time, are now backing Argintina. This is seems a dangerous game of brinkmanship Cameron is playing.

It reminds me of the first Russion- Japanese war- where the Russian government (well the Tsars) was under attack at home and decided they needed a distraction and the best sort was an easy war they could get a lot of propaganda out of back home, so they took their huge fleet to Japan who they, for some reason, seemed to think were still paddling about in wooden canoes, and sailed right into Japans new and highly impresive navy and got annihalted. There are worrying echoes here of that sort of Tsarist Imperial thinking from Cameron.

To be fair to Cameron the Dauntless was despatched before Wills tour was announced, it has jut taken longer to arrive.

Also this noise making from Argentina seems a little ott when this comes to light

But you can't get eggs and you can't get vegetables. South America once traded happily with the islanders, supplying all their needs. But Buenos Aires has been working hard to cut the islands off.

Recently, Argentina persuaded other South American countries to turn Falklands-flagged vessels away from their ports. Ships rounding Cape Horn heading for the Falklands are routinely stopped, searched and delayed, so much so that merchant vessels have largely given up trying.

Argentina has also restricted air traffic. There is one flight a week from Chile. Argentina won't allow more than this to pass through its airspace. Now Argentina is threatening to close even this last link with mainland South America.
Empty supermarket shelves Fresh vegetables are increasingly hard to come by

But they are an unflappable lot, the Falkland Islanders. They keep calm and carry on.

from a beeb article I read today. Starving out humans beings in the 21st century seems completely unacceptable to me!

What if the situation were reversed and the Isle of Wight belogned to Argentina and we disputed it? WOuld we allow planes and shipping to use UK ports and airports? Especially if there were votes in not doing so? I wonder if we would be any better?

Slightly different, in that even if we did I can not imagine us managing to persuade the whole of Europe to do the same, leaving them stranded in terms of local supplies, not choosing to trade yourself is one thing, but making it impossible for planes to get in to do deliveries as they come through your airspace and trying to cut off all reasonable supplies is another.
(But yeah, I can see London being as bad, although I hope we as a nation - or at least some of us, would see the dreadful nature of the decision)

I can't imagine Europe going along with it either- but sadly I could imagine Cameron making the appeal to europe to do such a thing and then using Europes refusal as a propaganda tool. And thats a bit worrying.
From what I can gather The Falklands Islands stirs up a lot easy votes in Argentina which oddly enough may make things potentially more dangerous than when the military were in control.

While I could see Cameron being aggressive if the roles were reversed, I think it's important to keep in mind the differences in proximity. The Isle of Wight is (if my Google-fu serves me) something like 5-7 miles off the coast of England. The Falklands are over 290 miles away from Argentina. Under military rule it was customary to show them as being much larger and closer on maps and while I don't know if that's still the case, the fact is they're far enough way to be much more distinct than many coastal islands.

if the politicians did try some tricks with a hypothetical imbargo on the Isle of Wight, the difference would be that the British people wouldnt stand for it. There would be flotillas of little boats and craft sailing over with supplies for the people stranded on the island. I think they, the politicians from any nation underestimate the good nature and good sense of ordinary people at their risk. It can topple dictators and defeat seemingly overwhelming odds.

The Falklands are over 290 miles away from Argentina.- Eldo

Yes and they are 7913 miles from the UK!

It's a Brittish land-holding under Brittish Rule. If the Brits want to send their whole military there, so be it. The Argentinians are the ones who need most to distract their citizens from Home Affairs. There is no way Brits would launch an attack on any South American country. No need. The Argentinians should be the ones we're worried about. If the Brits remind the Argentinians every now and then that any belligerence on their part can be dealt with just as efficiently as last time, good luck to 'em. If the people of the Falklands wanted to be part of distant Argentinia, or be a Republic of their own, then I'd support the Falklanders in their aims.

The islands hold little strategic value and the people that live there do not want to be under Argentinian rule.

They are quite obviously playing the 'colonialism' card for 2 reasons.

1 - Internal politics - enemy of my enemy and all
2 - Oil - for once it is not the UK 'conspiring' to get some oil

I would love to see the day when there are no such things as borders and where everything is used for the common good of everyone else. Not sure that is ever going to happen barring a cataclysm that leaves a very small population in the same place.

I agree the Aries have their own particular reasons for making an issue over this. The timing was not an accident with the anniversary (nor I supsect was Prince Williams timing in being deployed there an accident either).
But from a purely selfish perspective the UK only control foreign affairs and defence, the Falkalnds governement does eerything else- so waht is in it for Britian? If Argentina did invade again, leaving aside the question of whether Britian still has a navy capable of responding as before, is a moral obligation enough to defend it again? I'm not offeing an opinion on that just postulating the question.

I think it is a very different ball game this time around.

I don't think the question is anything to do with an appetite for a campaign similar to the last war, but more whether Argentina could actually launch a successful offensive themselves.

Capturing the islands would be a vastly more difficult task today compared to last time, I don't think it will happen any time soon.

Certainly the Islands are much more daunting prospect given the UK military presence permenently statined there- but thats another thing. Its costs- al ot. And a t a time when the governemtn is cutting crucial services at home and every one is feeling the pinch (well except the toffs of course) is it even sustainable? We can't just keep a huge garrison there forever.

You are probably right. Also, with South-South capital flows ever increasing, I am sure we will see a lot of the Latin Amercian countries economies grow and defense spending with it.

Today 4 Typhoons and a Type-45 could pretty much wipe out the entire Argentinian airforce and gain air dominance. In 50 years.... maybe not.

I agree totally about the potential effect from Latin American countires, I think the rise in power and wealth there will in the end be the deciding factor in the future of the islands.

sorry to butt in but am I right in thinking they have found tonns of oil under the Falklands?

In short they dont know. There are potential oil fields nearby- but the Argies and their neighbouring allies for a long time have been refusing any shipping which is anything to do with the Uk researching or exploring it, and refusing to refuel them- making it a bit tricky to find out exactly for a long time.
Latest reports I can find seem to estimate the UK will triple its oil reserve by the end of the decade if it is exploited-according to Bloomberg anyway:

Oil explorers are targeting 8.3 billion barrels in the waters around the islands this year, three times the U.K.’s reserves. Borders & Southern Petroleum Plc (BOR) will drill the Stebbing prospect next month, one of three Falkland wells that Morgan Stanley ranks among the world’s top 15 offshore prospects this year. Meanwhile, Rockhopper Exploration Plc (RKH) is seeking $2 billion from a larger oil company to develop the Sea Lion field, the islands’ first economically viable oil find.
“The area is underexplored and highly prospective,” said New York-based Morgan Stanley analyst Evan Calio. “These could be like the high-impact wells in Ghana and Brazil a few years ago that opened up a whole host of basins.”
A major drilling success will further raise the political temperature as Argentina maintains its claim over the U.K’s South Atlantic territory, 300 miles (483 kilometers) from the Latin American coast. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said Britain is taking her country’s resources, while Thatcher’s successor David Cameron yesterday accused Argentina of a “colonialist” attitude that didn’t account for islanders’ rights.
Cameron has approved contingency plans to bolster U.K. troops on the islands

well there you have it, the Argentinians want oil they couldnt care less for the rock or the people living on the rock.

And Britian does? Or do we just want the oil too?

Pettytyrant101 wrote:And Britian does? Or do we just want the oil too?

Yes. Like if it was Kent. The Falklands belong to Britain until the Falklanders decide otherwise - or there is a foreign takeover (possibly by Argentinia).

The people think they are British and its sovereign land so it could just as well be Kent, so its probably reasonable to expect to keep control of any oil they find.