FREEDOM!!!! [4]

{{ Are you are calling me a deviant?! }}

https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1389116602394755073

{{ Dunno about that, in my bit of the country at least all you see are SNP posters and banners, they are on every lamppost, every bit of wall or tied to fences. Cant miss them, theyve even got a gool old fashioned van driving about with a loud speaker. }}

Do they say "Independence"? I think that was the point.

Case in point, if this is real the SNP-leadership's obsession with Salmond is.. unhealthy to put it mildly. If this is the most important political message..

https://www.buchkomplizen.de/blog/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/E0iPIFyWEAIlbPh-700x431.jpg

{{ Well getting the votes is kind of the most important thing in an election, yes! The SNP dont have to mention independence the other parties havent stopped talking about it for them. Anyone who votes tomorrow and doesnt know this election is about either getting or stopping another referendum must be deaf, blind, dead and buried in a peat bog for the last year. }}

good luck Petty

The Tories will win Hartlepool I bet.

{{ Well thats my votes cast. Find out by tomorrow how close my predictions were!

Blue on the topic of if the SNP are pushing hard enough for another referendum, Id say Sturgeon was pushing it as hard as she can politically and without pushing folk away.

I agree entirely with her that it has to be legal, it has to approved and it has to be internationally recognised, otherwise we are just putting ourselves in the Catalonian position.

Sturgeons position is deal with the pandemic first, when its behind us, hopefully by second half of next Parliamentary term call a vote for a referendum, and if Westminister refuses challenges their right to block it in the courts.

Polling indicates the numbers for independence hover between about 48 and 58%, this is not enough to be sure, and not enough to risk a 2nd and probably last for very long time referendum. Again I agree with Sturgeon, the SNP have to convince at least 60% of the popualtion consistently before its worth having another referendum.

The biggest political attack the SNP sustains from its opposition is that its obbssessed with independence and has taken its eye off the day job- demonstrably untrue they have passed way more domestic legislation than the other parties combined, but its an easy argument with a simple message that sticks- and those are powerful, like Brexits, "Take back our sovereignty" which was stupid on several levels at once, but still worked.
If Sturgeon just goes on about independence she plays right into her opponents hands, it would be a big political mistake and Sturgeon is too canny for that. }}

{{ Wont be any Scottish results till later today and most will be tomorrow, and the list probably not till Sunday. But results are starting to come in from the English local councils elections. And its looking better for Tories than Labour.
Seems the Tories, somehow, are holding onto those working class seats in the north they took at the election. And even adding to them.

'The Conservatives have won the Hartlepool by-election, taking the seat from Labour and giving the town a Tory MP for the first time since the seat was created in 1974. Jill Mortimer won the seat by almost 7000 votes and a swing from Labour of 16%. The Conservatives also win control of councils in Northumberland, Harlow, Redditch, Dudley and Nuneaton & Bedworth '

Thats a really big swing o the Tories. This in turn is embolding Corbyns left wing allies in momentum to go after Starmer-

'The left-wing Momentum group says Starmer's strategy has "comprehensively failed"'

It ill be interesting to see if the Scottish Tories get some sort of boost similar to in English working class areas.

Figg thats your neck of the woods, any idea why these northern areas of england have swung to Tory?}}

{{ First to Scottish results in, both wins for the SNP but the details are interesting, the first seat was pretty safe with a 9000 vote cushion and the SNP held it comfortably, but there was also a 6% swing from SNP to Tory- were that to repeat in seats with narrow margins it could be enough for the Tories to pick up a seat or two along the way. However that seat was one of the few in the country that voted Leave in the Brexit referendum, so its maybe no suprise the Tories increased their share of the vote there, even it was nowhere near enough to make a difference to the result.
In the second result however the SNP held another seat with a 4% swing from the lib dems to the SNP. }}

{{ First interesting result, and the first seat to change hands. The SNP have taken East Lothian from Labour. Of course to gain a majority the SNP not only have to pick up a few extra seats but not lose any they already have. Tricky as there only a handful of seats they dont already have to fight for.
But however you cut it its quite the achievement for any political party that has been in power for three terms to win, and seems like they will win well majority or no, for a fourth term in government. }}

You can win without a majority? I take it this is the very british concept of "form a government" by horse-trading with other parties to get a mixed majority?

{{ When Labour created the Scottish Parliament they built in a voting system designed in their words to prevent the SNP ever getting a majority and being able to force a referendum bill through. They envisioned a system where no one party would ever get a majority and therefore have to work in coalition with other parties to get anything done.
So we get two votes- the first vote, the constituency vote is traditional first past the post votes- those are the results mainly coming in at the moment. The second vote is called the 'list' and is a second representive you can vote to send to Parliament too. Its a proportional representation system of election. And you dont have to vote for the same party on both.

The fact the SNP got a majority at all once before, or that they might be very close to one this time is in fact amazing in itself, given the system was designed to stop just this very thing ever happening. Bear that in mind if they fail to reach a majority by a few seats and the Tories use that to claim they dont have the support of the ocuntry- its an arguement for a home english audience who are more likely to be ignorant of the fact the Scottish parliament by design is not supposed to have any majority ever. To get within a few seats of it means the SNP will have taken something like 85-90% of all available seats. But if thats not a landslide in political election terms I dont know what is. However the Tories try to spin it.}}

{{ As it currently stands- 23 seats declared, the SNP have gained one, held 19 others and the Lib Dems have held three.

Interesting result in Orkney and Shetland, which have always been semi automous in their thinking and culture and for decades voted Lib Dem. They did again but the SNP increased their vote share by a whopping 18.6% cutting the lib dem majority there down to just 806 votes.
This is a part of Scotland the SNP have never been successful at making in roads to, so whilst they didnt win it again, they are getting ever closer. }}

Just been having a look at the numbers that Sky News is reporting. 

49% SNP, 19% CON, 22% LAB, 9% LIB DEM, 1% OTHER.

So it seems about 50/50 on pro vs no independence parties on the face of it.

I dont know what the other consists of so maybe slightly against?

Your post earlier suggests that may be not the case though? Do you think this is what Sturgeon and Co were looking for to push that agenda?

Pettytyrant101 wrote:{{

Thats a really big swing o the Tories. This in turn is embolding Corbyns left wing allies in momentum to go after Starmer-

'The left-wing Momentum group says Starmer's strategy has "comprehensively failed"'

It ill be interesting to see if the Scottish Tories get some sort of boost similar to in English working class areas.

Figg thats your neck of the woods, any idea why these northern areas of england have swung to Tory?}}

As for Hartlepool, I think its those areas being strongly for Brexit, the Labour MP was a heavy Remainer, and totally the wrong candidate for a heavy Leave area. That was mistake number one. There is still a strong vaccine bounce, the Tory sleaze thing isn't important to the Red Wall voters and they all read the Murdoch rags so a lot of it hasn't filtered through yet. They all think "Boris is optimistic, and has given them Brexit " Its a combo of extreme political ignorance, the fact Brexit hasn't hit them yet, and they believe all his bullshit. Ask an average person on the street and they probably still think Corbyn is Leader of the Labour party. He tanked the LP and the damage will take years to heal. I fucking despise the Corbynites. I feel sorry for Starmer, he became leader when everyone was hibernating in the pandemic, the message hasn't come out and I am not sure there is a message yet. I get the impression of a decent, polite, and honest man with a massive crumbling mountain to climb and every time he makes a step upwards the Corbyn vultures perch on his head and peck his head. he just cant win. Labour need another Blair, Campbell and Mandelson, someone with a killer instinct, ruthless and charismatic. Someone to call out the Tories and make mincemeat of them.

{{ Lance- I'm surprised the greens arent on that list- they currently hold the balance of power in the Parliament being pro-independence they give the SNP a majority in voting. But I assume they are in the 1%.
That also appears to be vote share- which doesnt, rightly or wrongly, count for much in the first past the post system, only who wins does- for example whilst the Tories are in second there with 22% of the vote they havent actually won a single seat yet.
It currently stands at SNP 23 (+1) Lib Dems (3) Labour 0 Cons 0.

Overall also looks like the SNp are increasing their vote share overall, increasing margins where they are winning and closing gaps where they havent.


Figg- thanks for your insights. That does make sense, and yeah Corbyn did heavy damage to Labour and still is from what Labour folk are saying about doorstep response. Unfortunately if the results are bad it will only embolden the left of Labour to fight harder against Starmer as leader, and the last thing Labour can afford is go into a period of infighitng and squabbling.}}

Petty - understand with the seats, I was thinking more the "mandate" for indyref2. It seems to me that these results give Westminster a good reason to still say no and pro-indy no reason to push for a couple more years.

I did also see some polls recently that seems like pro-indy sentiment had dropped a little recently. I imagine more because people are tired of that last 5 years and just want so stability than agreeing or disagreeing with either side.

{{ No one is planning on holding a referendum any time soon. Despite attempts expecially by the Tories to imply if the SNP win Sturgeon will be calling a new one tomorrow morning she has very publicly and clearly said she has no timeline for it save ideally in the later half of the next parliament- so in at best 3-5 years from now. Her priority is getting through the pandemic revovery first. In some ways I think the press have made much more of the referendum question than the public, who in general are more concerned with who will govern best, protect NHS and services and stand up to Boris and his Tories in Westminster.

I thnk if a pro-independence party wins a landslide election after 3 consecutive election victories and 15 years in power then thats probably as cast iron a mandate as you could have in politics. Boris pulled the Uk out of the EU on nothing like as strong a mandate to do so after all.
If the people of Scotland yet again return the SNP to power, and with a masive win, which it looks like it will be even if its not an outright majority- then they have the right to enact their manifesto same as any other party.

MY own constuency of Argyll and Bute just declared, returning our SNP candidate with a increase of nearly 9000 on the vote}}

{{ SNP picked up Ayr from the Tories, narrow win but a win. Assuming they dont lose any seats that would put them on 63, two up on their present position in the Parliament and only two more needed for an outright majority. }}

{{ 33 seats declared results so far- SNP 29, Lib-Dems 3, Tories 1. Labour, Greens and Salmonds new Alba party yet to get a win (Salmonds party seems to be getting about 2% of the vote so its lost deposits all round for them by looks of it). }}

{{ Seem slike Unionist voters are tactical voting, a sort of anyone but SNP stategy- in areas where the Tories were 2nd their vote share has gone up a few percent, not enough but its up, but in areas where Labour are the 2nd biggets party their vote share has gone up by about same amount, againnot enough, but shows that Unionists, rather than backing any one unionist party are going for any unionist party likely to stop the SNP will do strategy.
Never been in favour of tactical voting, not quite cheating but its gaming the sytem, and I always feel you should vote for who you most agree with and think will do the job best. There is something rather depressing to me about voting not for something but solely against something and not caring who is against it so long as they are.}}

{{ Tories have held Dumfriesshire and increased their vote somewhat. No big suprise, and looks like from the increase more tactical voting from unionists with the vote share the Tories gained coming at the expense of Labour not from the SNP. }}

{{ SNP just took Edinburgh central from the Tories- Ruth Davidsons seat! }}

So we get two votes- the first vote, the constituency vote is traditional first past the post votes- those are the results mainly coming in at the moment. The second vote is called the 'list' and is a second representive you can vote to send to Parliament too. Its a proportional representation system of election. And you dont have to vote for the same party on both.

I don't understand how this prevents any party from getting the majority.

{{ Overall picture- in council elections England/Wales Labour are doing pretty well in Wales, getting humped by the Tories in England.
In Scotland's Parliament elections- the SNP are definently the winners, only question is by how much. Tories are about holding steady where they were, Lib Demsare doing a little better than before and Labour have largely crashed and burned and the Greens might be down (hard to tell yet as they tend to get more on the 2nd list vote than the 1st vote). }}