FREEDOM!!!! [4]

{{I have considered it Figg, but rather than be the front man I am better suited to be the pen behind one!

Above I posed the rhetorical question, 'what does Scottish Labour stand for?' and I also mentioned Labour's foray into constitutional politics with talk of federalism.
Today at the Scottish Labour conference those two things came together- not directly, not mentioned in the same sentence, but in theme.

Fortunately I don't have to explain it which saves time as the excellent BBC Scotland political editor Brian Taylor does such a good job of doing so (for the record I think his reading of it is spot on)- }}

'Presume that a people's convention can be established and motivated. Presume that it can develop a system of federalism that might work. In the interim, such a discourse, such a process would, arguably, give Scottish Labour its longed-for voice in the constitutional debate. They would not be supporting independence. Indeed, party leaders insist that the SNP have no mandate for a further indyref.

But they would not be backing the Tories in unalloyed support for a status quo Union either. On that, party leaders say there is no prospect of Labour again working in tandem with the Tories if there is to be a further referendum.

So the federalism discourse would, arguably, give Scottish Labour a distinctive voice in the constitutional debate. At the Daily Record fringe, Kezia Dugdale again stressed she did not want indyref2. Scotland did not need it. But, if there were to be such a debate, there might be a case for putting the federalism option on the ballot paper. '

{{So what does Scottish Labour stand for? Federalism within the UK it seems- at least they found an answer I suppose- one hugely unlikely to work (again I leave in Brian's capable words)- }}

'Labour's proposed solution is a federal UK. But what, precisely, do they intend to federate? Again, successive speakers acknowledged that it was impossible to offer a precise answer at this stage.

Why? Because there is no agreed formula and, more, no way of prescribing a structure for the governance of England to the good and sensible people of that nation.

.....To repeat, what would be federated? The nations of the UK? But federating Scotland and England is like federating Connecticut and California. Scarcely comparable, it might be argued.

Might it then be, for England, a strengthened form of regional government? Perhaps. But it remains the case that there is relatively - I stress, relatively - little interest in affording priority to regionalism in England.

Plus enhancing English local government, without control of legislation or funding, would not be full devolution. It would not answer the West Lothian question for the Commons.'

{{But like I say at least they found an answer, of sorts, it probably wouldn't work, sounds hugely unlikely, I cant envision Corbyn selling it to middle England whose votes Labour would need to help bring it, the Tory's wont back it, ditto the SNP which leaves Corbyn no chance of getting it off the ground and even in the House on current numbers. And it would be almost as big a change and upheaval as independence, but it is an answer! So well done Scottish Labour you found out what you stand for- something no-one has been asking for.}}}

{{I think Scottish Labour may have crossed some sort of weird threshold where they are unable to see or hear their own words!

This is from the BBC about what Scottish Labour leaders Dugdale is going to say in her speech tomorrow. Irony doesn't cover it.

'Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale will pledge to work tirelessly in support of the union if there were to be a second independence referendum....The second day of the Perth conference will also hear from UK Labour's deputy leader Tom Watson.
He is due to argue that a number of powers, such as agriculture, fisheries and environment protection, should be devolved to Scotland when the UK leaves the European Union....Ms Dugdale, who will address her conference in the afternoon, will reaffirm the party's opposition to a second referendum.
But she will add that she is ready to "step up and make the case for the union".....The theme of the conference, in case you hadn't spotted it plastered across more or less every available surface, is "Together We're Stronger"....It's a slogan which underlines the extent to which the event has found itself, once again, dominated by constitutional issues....Kezia Dugdale has put federalism top of her own agenda. Tom Watson will continue that theme today, as the UK and Scottish parties strive to look Stronger Together. London Mayor Sadiq Khan has also been jetted in as part of the same effort....And beyond the internal politics, the issue of independence also continues to hang over Labour....Ms Dugdale will use her speech today to reaffirm her party's backing for the United Kingdom, which she reckons is also Stronger Together.'

{{ And now comes the punch-line to this joke-}}

Ms Dugdale's speech comes a day after the party adopted a policy in favour of a federal UK.
She will add: "The Labour Party I lead will never support independence....It's time Nicola Sturgeon changed her tune.
I want the first minister of Scotland to focus on the Scottish NHS, on our economy and on our schools. I don't want a first minister whose priority is the constitution."


{{This is the same drum Scottish Labour has been beating for years now through many leaders who the SNP have seen off and as Labours voter numbers have catastrophically tumbled.
And there biggest problem is its not true and everyone can see it- people who voted NO in the referendum have voted the SNP in power in Scotland three times in a row- why? Because they have got more done than any one else who has had a go, particularly Labour. And whilst there are big problems, education in particular, the hit to the economy form falling oil prices, there is much folk like, or at least think, under the austerity circumstances, the SNP doing all they can- we look at our NHS and see it needs funding and resources, and more staff, but then we look south across the border where the NHS seems to be in a financial meltdown, people on trolleys in corridors for lack of beds, and we think maybe the SNP are managing things better with a tight belt, we'll stick with them thanks. Makes it hard to repeatedly sell a message that the SNP are only concerned with independence not governing. }}

Yet here we are again, another Labour leader, continued crashing poll numvbers and donations- same old drum beat. Its madness and long term, suicide. }}}

dude stop the ducking and diving and become an MP.

{{I dont think its just something you decide to be one day then your an MP! Though maybe I could stand on a crabbit platform- thats bound to appeal!}}

first step is always the hardest. you could call yourself the Ginger Whinger Party. I would join, I love whinging.

{{Kieza Dugdale attempts to explain her 'Peoples Convention' and federalist plan to a withering Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics- if she, and this plan is Labours best shot, boy are they desperate! }}

I listened to about 30 seconds of her and quit when I realized she wasn't saying anything.

{{{ Its shocking she is deemed the best Scottish Labour have for leader- but its worth listening to more just for Andrew Neil- I think my favourite response of his in that is - 'So its a conversation you're offering Scotland not a policy.' And the latter half over the London Mayor accusing the SNP of being inherently racist and how ludicrous that is, is a good watch too. When I watch US politicla interviews I often myself wishing they were being interviewed by someone like Neil- unless Ive missed them the US doesn't seem to have an equivalent.}}

Here we go again.

Bloody woman!!!

flipping heck how is May going to dodge that one?

She looks like she is going in strong.

I actually think Sturgeon has dropped the ball on this one. The timing of this announcement and the proposed date is very rushed. I think she will be elbowed in to a corner and will be seen as being so. I think she will lose again and that will be the end of the SNP for a long time.

{{There are several different things to consider here- first this is just a continuation of the Brexit strategy she has followed since the beginning.
That strategy has been to try to 1. secure a separate deal for Scotland where we remain in the free trade area with free movement of people. 2. Powers brought back from Brussels post-Brexit be given to the Scottish Parliament in areas of agriculture and fisheries in particular. But also immigration and social security, necessary to administer part 1.
The threat of the referendum was the stick to focus Westminster minds. Sturgeons only stick.

The response from Westminster to these proposals has been so far-

1. Bugger off we arent listening to a word of it.
2. We dont think you will use the stick because the polls arent favourable to you nor is the economics so we can safely ignore you. Oh and for good measure, even though we promised them during the EU referendum, you arent getting agriculture and fisheries, Westminster will be keeping them, even if over 90% of the UK fishing fleet is in Scottish waters. And dont oven ask about immigration or more social security powers, you arent getting them either.


Sturgeons announcement today is the only response she can make to Westminster's complete lack of communication with the devolved Parliaments, or Westminster's refusal to engage in any sort of compromise or negotiations on any of the SNP's points.

Its important to look at what she actually announced today- it snot a referendum, its not a date for a referendum, all she has said is she will seek consent from the Scottish Parliament to ask Westminster to trigger another Scottish referendum- but still on the contingency Westminster can avoid it by actually negotiation with the SNP on the Brexit deal.

May has talked a good game about Brexit for all of Britain, and all the Parliaments will be involved and consulted- but in practise it has been nothing at all-  meetings that tell ministers less than the press are publicly reporting. No definite answers, no negotiations, no compromises. Nothing.

This emphasises Sturgeon biggest weapon for independence- that we are not partners, we are being literally dragged along for the ride against our will by Westminster, with no say, and no desire on their part to listen to us anyway. The democratic deficit is being heavily highlighted here.


What happens next, whether there is a referendum or not, depends on Westminster more than Sturgeon- if Westminster open negotiations and take the SNP proposal seriously and try to meet at least some of them then there will be no referendum.
If Westminster decides to call Sturgeons bluff then there will be a referendum because I dont think she is bluffing.
But she is threatening- to try to get some response from Westminster on the SNP proposals.

As to it being the end of the SNP if they call it and especially if they lose- I very much doubt it- they got bigger and stronger after losing the last one after all- but more importantly Scots have voted overwhelmingly for SNP governments because they run things better than the other lot have, they have won domestic elections with numbers which clearly show they get domestically votes from YES and NO supporters.
Losing another referendum will hurt them, probably cost Sturgeon her job as it did her predecessor, but it will have little effect on how they are viewed as domestic government- the two things are seen quite separately.}}}

Petty - the got bigger and larger after the last one.. however I am sure they have lost ground since then. And given that polls suggest Scottish people do not want another indyref, dragging the country through all of that again only to lose I think would put to bed any idea of independence for a very long time. A bit like UKIP getting Brexit, SNP not getting it would make their key cornerstone of politics irrelevant.

And there have been dates mentioned.. the time frame of which will be before we know what the final deal on the table is and basically mean people are again voting on what they don't know.

From this side, it has always looked like Sturgeon and Co have been pushing things in the direction of another vote despite what she said originally (the whole not in this generation thing). Brexit has given them and opportunity but it seems the timing of it all (announcement and proposed dates) shows impatience and naivety.

I have a feeling Sturgeon is going to get her ass handed to her by May. Not sure if I like that or not as I don't really like either of them now.

however I am sure they have lost ground since then.- Lance

{{Not true- they lost their majority but that was a freak anomaly in the first place in a system designed not to have majorities. But they were voted overwhelmingly back into power- they have more MSP's than the next two parties combined and they did so on a manifesto which clearly included a call for another referendum if there was a change of circumstances such as Brexit (that actual example is the one used in the manifesto). And they returned a record number of MP's to Westminster- taking all but 2 of Scotland constituencies. A record not previously achieved by anyone including Labour when they were dominant.
But the best evidence leads into your next point-

'given that polls suggest Scottish people do not want another indyref'

The latest polls have it at 48% Yes 52% NO- that means even with Brexit ect support for independence has increased by 3% since the last referendum cutting the winning sides margin down to just 2%.

In the last referendum the SNP began from a base of about 24% for YES they almost doubled that over the length of the campaign. This time Sturgeon only needs to hold onto those she has and persuade 3% of the remainder and she wins. Yes its a gamble, but it is a winnable gamble.

'And there have been dates mentioned'

The operative word there being 'mentioned', not set, not fixed, just mentioned- the actual only physical real thing Sturgeon is doing is asking the Scottish parliament permission to ask Westminster. Thats the stage we are actually at. This was an announcement of intent, of what will happen if May doesnt start compromising, or at least even listening.
Also even on the speculative dates given its after the Brexit Deal is made but before the UK puts it into action. So we would  have Brexit to compare Independence to before we vote.Sturgeons thinking here is easier to stay in the EU or get back in if Scotlands makes its intentions to do so clear as soon as possible after the Brexit deal is struck.
Secondary its good tactically, she is wanting to apply pressure here to get May to act- so threatening to hold it immediately on the reveal of the Brexit Deal, before we leave is the last thing Westminster wants in terms of timing- they will be rather busy as it is. To avoid it they need to negotiation and thats the whole point. Lastly its good if it does come to a vote, as its unlikely Westminster will be in a good or organised place to campaign for NO well. And with Corbyn undermining Scottish Labour by saying Westminster should not stand in the way of another referendum in Scotland its unclear there will be this time a cross-party NO campaign, making it more fractured and at odds than previously was the case. Which would give the singular SNP message an advantage and clarity.

' it has always looked like Sturgeon and Co have been pushing things in the direction of another vote'

I can only assume thats an impression created by the English media you read and see- as since the Brexit announcement the SNP have worked very hard, produced papers with all their plans on it, got the backing of other Scottish parties to try to find a compromise position to stay in the UK after Brexit.
But you only need to go back to before the Brexit vote and you can hear Sturgeon herself lay out her preferred timing for another referendum- when the polls were sustainable at 60% or above for a period of some months. Sturgeon did not want to call this now, this is not her preferred timing- but she has been left with no choice as its all she has to negotiate with and so far Westminster has ignored Scotland completely regards Brexit. As Sturgeon said in her speech its talking to a brick wall- there is simply no response at all from Westminster even whist May is shooting her mouth off about a Brexit for all of Britain!
In the face of it Sturgeon has showed amazing patience- especially when her own massive party troops would have cheered another ref announcement long ago.

Even now this is just an escalation of her threat- she is still trying to get Westminster to engage in a manner which could allow Scotland to stay in the UK post-Brexit. May just is not interested in even beginning that conversation. That leaves Sturgeon in my view little but no choice than to to do what she has and escalate the threat, and show she is not bluffing.

This is entirely a monster of Englands creation, the entire Brexit thing is, and so is not listening to any of the devolved nations views (think its bad here wait till they put a border up in Ireland! Its already going tits up there and the Unionists are losing numbers and power), so is refusing to talk or compromise, and now the response is also in Westminster hands- they can still avoid it by just talking to the SNP and compromising.
May might think she is playin gat Thatcher and being strong, and 'the lady is not for turning' and all that pish- but in actuality her stubborn refusal to engage with anyone outside her own party and its needs could well be the final nail in the UK coffin.}}}

http://countryballs.net/news/i_hope_you_don_39_t_leave_the_union/2016-06-10-1979

http://www.politico.eu/article/sinn-fein-calls-for-northern-irish-referendum-as-soon-as-possible/?

Murdoch must be loving this. He is our real boss after all.

Bluebottle wrote:http://www.politico.eu/article/sinn-fein-calls-for-northern-irish-referendum-as-soon-as-possible/?

I'd forgotten until now to check the results of the NI election from a couple weeks ago. Man, the DUP and UUP both took hits. DUP still the largest party but their margin is almost gone. Was it because of that renewable energy scandal or their support of Brexit (or both)? I'm still skeptical that a reunification referendum would succeed but Sinn Fein pushing harder makes more sense now. Curious to see what stance the Designated Other parties like Alliance and the Greens take and if Brexit will alter their stance on the status quo.

{{ Well things have been escalating nicely! Thought it best to present a what has happened so far, as it can be a bit confusing to keep up with events!

1. The Scottish Government writes a paper outlining areas the Scottish government wants protected- access to the single market, free movement of people, control of fisheries and agriculture, control of immigration and increased social services powers.

2. The Tory government at Westminster under May stonewall the proposals and refuse to engage with the Scottish government in discussions on any of it.

3. The Scottish government respond by threatening to hold a second independence referendum if we are offered no further choices than hard brexit or nothing.

4. The Tory's continue to stonewall, then announce they are dismissing the Scottish Governments plans without any dialogue whatsoever with the devolved Parliament. They also indicate that agriculture and fisheries will come to Westminster not the Scottish Parliament.

5. The Scottish Parliament declare publicly that Westminster will not engage in any discussions on any points, therefore a referendum will be called. The date set for it is in the six month period following the Brexit deal being known but before it is ratified.

6. May responds by refusing to give consent to a referendum, at that time. Crucially she doe snot rule one out entirely just the timing of it.

7. The Scottish government insist they have a democratic mandate to do so, were elected on that basis, and the right to call a referendum should lie with the devolved Parliament, not Westminster.

8. May maintains she will not grant permission for a second referendum at the time the Scottish Government want.

9. The Scottish Government respond that if she has a problem with the timing then they are happy to sit down at the negotiating table and discuss it. Hoping to finally get Westminster to the table.


And that was where things stood. And then, as he did in the first Independence referendum at the last minute, former PM Gordon Brown has stepped forward with his 'third way'.

'Gordon Brown has set out a "third option" for Scotland's future, based on more powers being transferred to Holyrood after Brexit.
The former prime minister suggested Holyrood be given power to set VAT rates and sign international treaties.'

What interesting here is that whilst Brown is framing this as opposing a second referendum, it is in fact, minus a few more contentious items like immigration powers and free movement, the Scottish Governments list of demands they put forward months ago and which May ignored.

The question is will May see Browns 'third way' as a means to negotiate and avert the referendum fight without having to lose personal face, or will she reject it out of hand without consultation as she did when the Scottish government made the same proposals? }}}

{{Sturgeons speech today to the SNP party conference }}

looks like she didn't go for the third way.

Thanks for the summery, Petty. It's a bit hard to follow it all accurately from this distance (especially when we've got so much random noise coming from our own Capitol right now .)

I couldn't watch the video of course, but I just read the Reuters article and I'm impressed with how well Sturgeon seems to be playing her hand. Neither May nor she were dealt terribly strong hands in the negotiations they're each facing, but Sturgeon seems to be playing her cards better.

{{Technically Sturgeon still has another move to make before its May's go again- what will be interesting is to see if May tries to get her next move in first. Sturgeons next move comes on Wednesday- when the Scottish Parliament will vote on having a second referendum.
Although the SNP have a narrow minority government they have the numbers with the pro-independence Greens backing them to outnumber all the rest added together- so it should pass unhindered. At that point May is no longer refusing the whims of the SNP, she will be ignoring the will of the Scottish Parliament representing the Scottish People, which is a different magnitude altogether.

May has till Wednesday to come up with something- she cant stop it happening, she cant swing the vote, so will be interesting to see what her response this week will be. }}}

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/independence-wales-not-idle-fantasy-12754019